第 356 期·中文精讀

蒂姆·多德:SpaceX、星艦、火箭發動機與太空旅行的未來

Tim Dodd: SpaceX, Starship, Rocket Engines, and Future of Space Travel

與蒂姆·多德聊星艦的研發現狀、火箭發動機技術與可重複使用路線,展望太空旅行的未來。

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2014 年 4 月,一枚 Falcon 9 火箭從卡納維拉爾角升空。和以往不同的是,這枚火箭一級的側面多了四條摺疊著的著陸腿。當時網上的反應基本是嘲笑:一個億萬富翁浪費時間想讓火箭落回來,這不可能成功。

八年多之後,同一家公司連續將近一百次把助推器穩穩落回地面。整個 2022 年,SpaceX 送進軌道的質量超過中國一個國家,而中國那一年的發射次數還比它多兩次。

蒂姆·多德(Tim Dodd)第一次去現場看發射,看的正是那枚帶著著陸腿的 CRS-3。他當時只是個攝影愛好者,架了臺遠端觸發的相機,因為連續幾次推遲發射,人先回家了,最後是相機替他看到了那一次升空。九年之後,他成了 YouTube 頻道 Everyday Astronaut 的主理人,坐在 Lex Fridman 的麥克風前,把 SpaceX 從 Falcon 1 到星艦的整條技術路線講了一遍。

這期訪談資訊密度很高,多德講東西有個特點:他不滿足於告訴你發生了什麼,他一定要把為什麼只能這麼做講透。下面按技術脈絡重新組織。

去俄羅斯買火箭沒談成,才有了 SpaceX

Falcon 1 是一切的起點。馬斯克最初的計劃簡單粗暴:去俄羅斯買一枚火箭,把東西送上火星。談崩了,回來之後他決定自己造。

多德說,他至今不太理解馬斯克是怎麼在那麼短的時間裡湊出那支團隊的,但那批人確實把東西做出來了。Falcon 1 是一枚很小的火箭,一級一臺 Merlin 發動機,二級一臺叫 Kestrel 的發動機。用今天的眼光看幾乎是模型級別,可它驗證了一件事:一傢俬營公司可以從零開始把載荷送進軌道。

真正讓 SpaceX 活下來的,是 NASA 的一份合同。當時有一個叫 COTS 的專案,全稱 Commercial Orbital Transportation Services,商業軌道運輸服務,後來演變成商業補給合同(Commercial Resupply Services)。NASA 出錢,私營公司出方案,把貨物送到國際空間站。

SpaceX 為此同時開發了兩樣東西:Dragon 飛船和 Falcon 9 火箭。這兩者的關係,多德用了一個很樸素的比喻。Falcon 9 是半掛卡車,Dragon 是貨廂裡那個被送到目的地的箱子。目的地就是國際空間站。

Dragon 一代執行了大約二十次貨運任務,只出過一次事故。之後升級成 Dragon 2,分成載人版 Crew Dragon 和貨運版兩個型號。載人版的首次任務 DM-2 把 Bob Behnken 和 Doug Hurley 送上了空間站,那是 SpaceX 第一次送人入軌。

多德特意強調了一點:入軌和摸到卡門線是兩件事。前者需要的速度增量是後者的幾十倍,難度不在一個量級上,更別說還要跟空間站交會對接。

3.7 米直徑、45 米長度,這已經是公路運輸的物理上限

多德回憶他 2014 年第一次到肯尼迪航天中心看發射,出發前其實是失望的。他以為要看的是那種 NASA 級別的大火箭,結果被告知“這個火箭不大,可能沒那麼震撼”。

走到發射臺邊上,他的第一反應是:這東西太大了。

Falcon 9 高 70 米,助推器本身長 45 米,直徑 3.7 米。這個尺寸背後有一條硬約束:它基本就是美國公路、橋樑、隧道允許透過的上限。再寬一點,高速公路要封路;再長一點,轉彎過不去。Falcon 9 的助推器差不多就是能橫穿整個國家運輸的最大物體。

這也解釋了為什麼後來的星艦必須建在得克薩斯州博卡奇卡的海邊。星艦直徑 9 米,從工廠到發射臺的距離以米計算,因為它根本運不出去。造多大這件事,最後是被物流決定的。

多德說,很多人看照片會覺得 Falcon 9 又細又長,像個牙籤,忽略了它其實是人類工業裡非常大的一塊機械。把這麼大一坨東西完整地推離地面,這件事本身就足夠讓人謙卑。

發動機佈局從九宮格改成八角網,省下的是製造時間

最早的 Falcon 9 一級,九臺 Merlin 發動機排成一個 3×3 的方陣。這個佈局只用了兩到四次飛行就被換掉了。

新佈局叫 Octaweb,中間一臺,外面八臺圍成一圈。火箭直徑沒變,還是 3.7 米,但推力結構完全重做。

換的理由非常具體。方陣佈局裡,四個角上的發動機和四條邊中點的發動機在結構上不是一回事,安裝位置不同,受力不同,零件也不同。改成環形之後,外圍八臺發動機的安裝結構是同一個零件,轉個角度就能裝到任何一個位置上。

Octaweb 帶來的收益主要來自同一個零件能重複用、能快速換,零件本身的先程序度並沒有變化。這是 SpaceX 反覆出現的思路:先解決裝配線上的時間成本,再談單項效能。

之後 Falcon 9 開啟了長達多年的拉長過程。每次迭代都變高一點、推力大一點,最後定型在 Block 5 上。

Starlink 衛星長得奇怪,因為它是照著火箭內壁設計的

SpaceX 現在最大的客戶是自己。Starlink 是它發射質量暴漲的直接原因。

多德講了一個很有洞察力的細節:Starlink 衛星摺疊起來大概有一張桌子那麼大,扁平的,形狀在衛星裡算是異類。它之所以長成這樣,是因為 SpaceX 在設計衛星的時候,手裡同時握著火箭整流罩的尺寸、質量上限、體積上限。

一家獨立的衛星公司,通常是先按功能需求把衛星設計出來,再去找能裝得下的火箭。SpaceX 反著來:先看整流罩裡能塞什麼形狀,再讓衛星長成那個形狀。

這種垂直整合帶來的自由度,別人很難複製。結果就是 Falcon 9 一年幾十次發射,絕大部分裝的都是自家衛星,把入軌質量推到了人類歷史上從未有過的量級。

再入點火:用三臺發動機給自己造一個氣動盾牌

讓助推器活著穿過大氣層,是回收路上第一個真正的難關。

早期 SpaceX 試過用降落傘回收 Falcon 1 和最早的兩枚 Falcon 9 一級,沒成。多德提到 Rocket Lab 現在還在做類似的事,用降落傘減速,再用直升機在空中把傘繩勾住。這個方案他們成功過一次,但那枚火箭小得多,一級空殼只有一噸左右,而且用的是碳纖維貯箱,結構輕、質量比好,能扛住再入。

Falcon 9 當時的引數做不到這一點。於是 SpaceX 換了個思路:在進入稠密大氣之前主動減速。

這個動作早期叫 reentry burn,再入點火,後來內部改稱 entry burn,進入點火。多德堅持認為前者更準確,因為它確實發生在再入階段。做法是重新點燃九臺 Merlin 中的三臺。

這三臺發動機起兩個作用。一是把速度砍掉將近一半,二是尾焰本身在飛行器前方推開空氣,形成一道類似力場的屏障。大氣層的殺傷力來自壓縮:任何物體高速穿過時,前方的空氣被急劇壓縮、升溫,熱到變成等離子體,足以把材料燒穿。速度降下來,溫度就降下來,飛行器才有機會活著穿過這一層。

多德說,SpaceX 大概是在這個階段意識到:既然為了減速已經要點火了,不如把同一臺發動機留著用來著陸。於是就有了著陸腿,有了垂直降落。

2015 年 12 月 21 日,第一次成功。

自殺式燃燒:推力永遠大於重力,所以它不能懸停

訪談裡技術含量最高的一段,是多德解釋 Falcon 9 為什麼著陸這麼難。

九臺發動機,著陸時只留一臺。這臺發動機的推力可以節流,最低能到額定推力的 40% 左右。即便油門收到最低,它的推力仍然大於空殼助推器的重量。也就是說,這枚火箭在著陸段根本沒法懸停,推力重量比永遠大於 1。

行業裡管這個叫 suicide burn,自殺式燃燒,也叫 hoverslam。

如果發動機點火早了一點,火箭會停在地面上方,然後它沒法再降下去。它唯一的選擇是關掉發動機,然後從兩百英尺高的地方掉下來。(蒂姆·多德)

所以實際操作是這樣:發動機的可用區間是 40% 到 100%,控制演算法不會從 40% 開始,而從中間某個位置切入,比如 70%。如果落得比預期快,往上推還有空間;如果落得比預期慢,往下收也還有餘量。

這套控制邏輯聽起來不復雜,難的是它必須在一次性的機會里,在劇烈的氣動干擾和燃燒不穩定中,在結構應力和貯箱晃動的耦合下把誤差收斂到米級。

多德承認自己完全不懂飛控程式碼,只懂硬體。不過他給出一個有意思的細節:馬斯克當年定下的規矩是用最通用的程式語言寫,這樣不需要招“會說某種古老語言的人”,從街上拉一個合格工程師就能上手。所以他推測飛控是 C 或 C++,而不是 JavaScript。可靠系統在實時性上的要求,基本把指令碼語言排除在外了。

這套演算法的代價也很清楚:每一次著陸消耗的推進劑,都是沒有用來送貨的推進劑。著陸本身不產生收入,它是一項長期投資,收益要在未來幾百次發射裡才兌現。目前 SpaceX 累計完成了一百五六十次著陸,其中接近一百次連續成功。

CRS-7:一個氦氣瓶引發的失控爆炸

2015 年 6 月,CRS-7 任務在上升段解體。這是 Falcon 9 第一次真正的失敗,大約第 18 次飛行。

原因是二級貯箱內部一個裝氦氣的小瓶子在上升段脫落,導致二級超壓,直接炸開。整枚火箭隨後失控解體。多德當時在週六或週日的早上看直播,看到爆炸的那一刻,腦子裡只剩一個念頭:這下完了。

復飛的那一次,SpaceX 順手把火箭落在了地面上。

把這兩件事放在一起看,才能理解這家公司的節奏。從 2014 年到 2015 年那段時間,CRS-4 差一點,CRS-5 差一點,CRS-6 差一點,CRS-7 炸了,然後 CRS-8 落成了。中間沒有停下來做冗長的歸零評審,整條迭代線繼續往前推。失敗在這些年裡更像是一種迭代成本,而不是流程中斷的理由。

這種節奏的代價也很明顯:早期發射頻率低,一年只有五次左右,每次發射都是大事件,多德會半夜三點起床看直播。現在平均一週兩次,他自己都不再每場都看了。

Block 5:一支十來枚助推器組成的艦隊

Falcon 9 現在的型號叫 Block 5,儘管它已經是 Falcon 系列第八九次大改。外觀特徵是黑色的著陸腿和黑色的級間段。

SpaceX 維持著大約十枚助推器組成的艦隊,讓它們輪流出勤。當時單枚助推器的複用紀錄是 15 次。整流罩也開始回收,兩級之間那個大鼻子不再是一次性消耗品。

整個系統裡唯一被扔掉的,只剩下二級。

多德在這裡給出了一個判斷:Falcon 9 的平臺已經走到頭了,繼續最佳化二級的可複用性在經濟上不划算。二級要能扛住軌道速度再入,需要的結構餘量會讓整枚火箭的運力損失太多。與其在 3.7 米的直徑裡摳,不如把直徑直接放大。

這就是星艦的起點。

一個系統,三個名字,還容易叫錯

星艦的命名史本身就很混亂,值得理一遍。

2016 年公開的時候叫 ITS,Interplanetary Transport System,星際運輸系統。2017 年底改叫 BFR,Big Falcon Rocket。2018 年底才定名 Starship。

更麻煩的是,Starship 這個詞有狹義和廣義兩個用法。狹義上它只是上面級,也就是那艘飛船;底下那個巨大的助推器叫 Super Heavy。廣義上,整套系統都叫 Starship。

所以看到“星艦首飛”這種表述,需要先判斷說的是哪一部分。多德在訪談裡也吐槽了這一點。

從三級跳到一個三米的高度開始

星艦的測試里程碑,最早的一個來自一個外形非常簡陋的金屬圓筒,代號 Starhopper。

2019 年,它第一次用 Raptor 發動機產生推力把自己抬離地面,先是被繫繩拴著飛了幾米,然後 15 米,最後 150 米。這是 Raptor 發動機第一次真正把東西送上天,也是星艦不鏽鋼貯箱方案第一次得到飛行驗證。

之後是 SN5 和 SN6,同樣做 150 米的跳躍,但系統更完整,貯箱工藝、管路、閥門、控制都往前走了一步。

真正的重頭戲在 2020 年底到 2021 年初:SN8、SN9、SN10、SN11,還有最後的 SN15。這幾枚都飛到十幾公里的高度,做 belly flop 這個動作,腹部朝下平躺著下落,靠氣動面控制姿態,最後在接近地面時把姿態翻正、點火著陸。

SN8 到 SN11 全部在著陸階段炸掉。SN15 成了。

多德解釋說,SN 就是 Serial Number,序列號。數字會跳號,因為有些測試被取消,有些貯箱造到一半發現設計改了,直接報廢。在博卡奇卡,一隻腳經常踩在另一隻腳前面,有時候手不知道腿在幹什麼。今天還在催著造四十個貯箱段,明天發現某個頭部貯箱的方案已經淘汰,那批零件就真的拉去廢料場。

這種迭代方式的浪費是顯性的,學習速度也是顯性的。

看起來最壯觀的爆炸,其實當量不大

星艦的爆炸影片傳播很廣,火球鋪滿整個畫面。多德給出了一組具體數字:這些飛行器雖然是人類造過的最大飛行物之一,但到目前為止,加註的推進劑從來沒有超過貯箱容量的 10% 到 20%。

視覺上的壯觀和能量上的規模是兩件事。真要按 TNT 當量算,這些爆炸在航天史上屬於小號。等星艦滿載推進劑做軌道級測試的時候,才會有真正意義上的大場面。

這個提醒很有價值。社交媒體的傳播邏輯天然偏愛畫面衝擊力,工程判斷依賴的卻是裝藥量、結構、失敗模式。兩者經常對不上。

那輛在太陽系裡飄著的 Roadster

2018 年 2 月,Falcon Heavy 首飛,載荷是一輛特斯拉 Roadster,駕駛座上坐著一個穿宇航服的假人。這件事在傳播上極其成功,多德卻把它算作一個實打實的工程里程碑:Falcon Heavy 首飛一次成功,意味著三枚助推器並聯的方案是可行的。

那輛車現在還在。有一個網站叫 whereisroadster.com,實時追蹤它的位置。它繞太陽執行,軌道是個大橢圓,一端在地球軌道附近,另一端越過火星軌道。

Lex 在訪談裡問了一個帶點浪漫色彩的問題:未來有沒有可能派個任務追上它,往裡面再放點東西。

多德的回答很乾脆:技術上完全可以做到。難的是它的軌道偏心率大,交會視窗和速度匹配會很麻煩,原理上沒有障礙。

十年、二十年、一百年的尺度

訪談後段,Lex 提了一個觀察:馬斯克特別擅長在 10 年、20 年、50 年、100 年的尺度上做工程和商業決策。他會先問“如果拉到二十年後看,這件事顯而易見的做法是什麼”,然後再倒推今天該造什麼。

這個尺度的思考方式,解釋了很多當時看起來不合理的決定:在火箭上裝著陸腿、自建衛星網際網路、把直徑從 3.7 米直接跳到 9 米。

多德很誠實地承認,他自己做不到這種外推。他沒法預測星艦第一次軌道級發射的確切時間,雖然那在當時看起來只有一兩個月的距離;他也沒法預測什麼時候能上火星,那個經濟模型長什麼樣,發射規模要做到多大。

五年前我不會預測到今天這個局面。真的太難預測了。(蒂姆·多德)

這句話放在一個整天講火箭的人嘴裡,反而顯得可信。對近處的事情給出精確判斷,對遠處的事情承認無知,這兩件事並不衝突。SpaceX 內部大概也是這樣運作的:戰略層面拉到幾十年,日常執行只盯著接下來幾個月,因為發射視窗、監管審批、供應鏈,全都在那個時間尺度上。

訪談裡還有一個沒被展開但很有意思的問題,是 Lex 丟擲來的:未來某一天,人類進入軌道的發射次數會不會超過地球表面飛機的起降次數。多德的回答是“我很難外推那麼遠”。

這個問題本身值得留著。它把航天常態化這個模糊的說法,換算成了一個可以比較的數量級。

給想認真理解航天的人,幾條具體建議

  • 看發射時別隻盯著火球。找帶遙測資料(速度、高度、節流百分比)的直播畫面,對照著看 entry burn 什麼時候點火、著陸點火時推力收到多少。看懂一次,後面幾十次都能看懂。
  • 讀火箭引數先看三個數:直徑、長度、起飛質量。直徑告訴你它能怎麼運輸,長度告訴你它受什麼結構限制,起飛質量告訴你它需要多少臺發動機。
  • 遇到星艦的新聞,先分辨說的是上面級、助推器還是整套系統。名稱混亂是這輪航天熱潮裡最常見的誤解來源。
  • 想理解可複用為什麼難,去搜 suicide burn 或 hoverslam 這兩個詞。理解了推力重量比無法小於 1 這個約束,就理解了整個著陸控制問題的核心。
  • 關注 Everyday Astronaut 的發動機深度講解系列,多德會帶著鏡頭走進工廠,把閥門、渦輪泵、燃燒室一個個拆開講,文字和動畫替代不了那種尺度感。
  • 對時間表保持懷疑,對方向保持耐心。這個領域的公開預測普遍偏樂觀,但十年尺度的趨勢判斷往往是對的,兩件事要分開對待。
文稿由本站用語音識別模型(基於官方釋出音訊)機器轉寫,可能有識別錯誤,人名與數字請以音訊為準。
Lex Fridman Podcast #356 – Tim Dodd: SpaceX, Starship, Rocket Engines, and Future of Space Travel Machine transcription by Qwen3-ASR 0.6B (MLX, local, Apache-2.0). May contain recognition errors. The following is a conversation with Tim Dodd, host of the Everyday Astronaut YouTube channel, where he educates and inspires all of us with detailed but accessible explanations of rocket engines and all things space travel. And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast. We got BetterHelp for mental health, MasterClass for online learning, Shopify for e commerce, and ExpressVPN for privacy and security. Choose wisely, my friends. Also, if you want to work with our team, we're always hiring. Go to lexfreeman dot com slash hiring. And now onto the full ad reads. As always, no ads in the middle. I try to make these interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff, maybe you will too. This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp spelled HELP help. There is quite a few conversations coming up, including with Paul Conti, that really delve into the human mind—the complexities of the human mind formed through. Whatever happens to us when we're young in our childhood—the difficult stuff, the good stuff, everything—the whole shebang—and some of that is trauma, and I think the shadow that trauma leaves in the human psyche. Is is significant and deserves to be lit up and ought to be explored, I think. And talk therapy sort of talking through it, bringing it to the surface. I think is one of the best or definitely one of the really effective ways to to begin the healing process and to take it to completion. That's something we talk about with Paul, is something we talk about with Carl Dieroth and just in a lot of incredible conversations with. 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It's it's a cool little nod even in the privacy of my own sort of home in the privacy of my own mind when I pass the mirror and. See like I recently got another Iron Maiden shirt, and it's it's like a it's a metal band that connects to my childhood because I remember probably my brother was a big fan of Metallica of Iron Maiden and that planted a seed of just joy towards the that kind of music so. So to wear that shirt is just it's pretty cool, and so you can sell shirts and basically anything else you want on Shopify. Sign up for a one dollar per month trial period at shopify dot com slash lex. That's all lowercase. Go to shopify dot com slash lex to take your business to the next level today. This show is also brought to you by ExpressVPN. I've used them for many many years to protect my privacy on the internet, but also just for whatever you use a VPN for. There is a million reasons. This is my favorite VPN. There is a big sexy button you press it it just works on any operating system on any device. That's the thing you want from software is it just works? It does this thing. It doesn't do a million extra features. It does this thing. It does it for an affordable price. Anywhere you want to use it, it works. And obviously for VPN, what's also important—the bandwidth is super fast. It's fast. It just works. I don't know. I love great design and engineering in the software space, so that's one of the many reasons I love ExpressVPN. Go to expressvpn dot com slash lex pod for an extra three months free. This is a lexfreeman podcast to support it. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here is Tim Dodd. Can you give a brief history of SpaceX rockets? So we got Falcon One, Falcon Nine. There is different versions of those Falcon Heavy, Starship, and also the the Dragon capsules and so on. Well, yeah, Falcon One is where it all started. The original intent and the original idea of SpaceX was Elon wanted to try to get something to Mars. You know, he saw that NASA didn't have a current Mars plan, and he wanted to go to Mars. So he decided, "How do I best do this?" He literally wanted to at first purchase a rocket from from Russia. Then on the after a foiled attempt at doing that, he decided he was going to try to develop his own rocket. And the Falcon One is what came out of that process. And he developed a pretty incredible team. Like I don't know how exactly he stumbled upon the team that he stumbled upon that quickly, but the people that he assembled were amazing and they built the Falcon One, which was a single Merlin engine followed by an upper stage engine called the Kestrel engine. Pretty small compared to the things they're working on today, but that Merlin engine continued to evolve into being the power plant for the Falcon Nine. They went from a small lift launch vehicle up into the medium class launch vehicle, so they could provide services for NASA. That's one of the big things they first kind of hung their hat up was they got the opportunity to fly cargo to the International Space Station under originally was called the COTS program, the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services. For NASA, which evolved into the Commercial Resupply Contracts, and that's when SpaceX developed both their Dragon capsule, which is a uncrewed at first spacecraft that can dock to the ISS, and the Falcon Nine rocket that can take it to the International Space Station. The Dragon rides on it's the thing up top that rides on the big booster thing that that launches it into orbit. Exactly, yep. The Falcon Nine's the the semi truck, the Dragon capsule is the payload. You know it's the thing being dropped off basically at a destination, and in this case, the destination is the International Space Station. And yes, so they developed those relatively quickly and became a commercial success before you know it. They're now the number one launch provider in the world, launching more mass to to orbit than anybody else, launching more frequently than. Countries like the entire country of China who's going crazy right now with launches. Granted, China beat them by two launches this last in twenty twenty two, but prior prior year SpaceX beat the entire country of China. I mean, it's it's nuts. And just like you said, SpaceX still beats China even this year in terms of the amount of payload. Those so the mass to orbit, yeah, the mass to orbit right that China had like sixty something, a couple more launches, but the there was just like small cubesat type of launches. Exactly, some of them were literally like one hundred kilograms or something, you know, like not not large payloads. And so SpaceX customers are different and different. So whoever wants to send payloads up into space, yes, but right now their biggest customer is actually themselves with Starlink. With Starlink, one of the biggest reasons they've launched so much mass to orbit is because Starlink has designed around the payload fairing and the payload capabilities of the Falcon Nine rocket. So you know because they're vertically integrated because they build their own satellites because they're building their own rocket, they can literally design a system that's you know another manufacturer might have made a more square satellite that was heavier or something, but SpaceX looked at it from a blank slate and said, "Here is our constraints, our payload mass constraints, our volume constraints, and they made a funky looking satellite. " Things like the size of a you know like a table folded up, which isn't anything I've you know really ever seen before. So but it's purpose built to fit as efficiently as possible inside their fairing and inside the capabilities of that rocket. So therefore, because they're launching those like an insane amount you know dozens you know forty fifty times a year or whatever. They're they're just putting up insane amounts of mass like we've never seen before. What about the different versions of Falcon Nine? So we can linger on that. What are some interesting memories to you of the different developments in Falcon Nine? The very first Falcon Nine had a square array of engines. It had like a three by three by three grid of their Merlin one engines—the one Ds. And I think it only lasted—I don't remember—it was two or four flights before they went into this octa web configuration where there is eight like a ring of eight engines with a center engine in the middle. Still in the same diameter that the rocket was, the fuselage was more or less the same three point seven meter wide diameter, but the the actual thrust structure changed. And one of the big efficiency gains was you no longer have you know a corner engine and then like a edge engine and then another corner engine. You can just make eight of the same you know kind of part of the octa web it's called you know the same shape and then your interchangeability and your manufacturability becomes a lot simpler. So that was kind of one of the bigger upgrades at first, and they kept stretching it. Every time they like touch this thing, it got longer and like are taller and taller technically. And then the next big feature that you saw in twenty fourteen would have been they added landing legs to a Falcon Nine rocket, which was I was at that was the first launch I ever went to, was actually to see. It was CRS three, so Commercial Resupply Mission three, and it was probably their god I don't remember what that was like their fourteenth or fifteenth launch or something like pretty early on. And people were literally laughing at the idea of them putting landing legs on it. They just thought it was stupid. They're like, "Why are they wasting? Why is this billionaire Elon Musk guy wasting his time trying to land a rocket? It's not going to work." So you said the Mars plan was there in the beginning. What about the reusability of rockets? Was that there in the beginning? I think reusability definitely you know it's it's a necessary part of making any kind of interplanetary mission you know in order to actually do that just financially you have to start reusing these things. In terms of the development of the Falcon One and Falcon Nine, how early on did the goal of reusing the rocket having the rocket actually land? How early did that goal creep in? I can't speak for Elon and SpaceX, but it was pretty you know immediately they wanted to try to recover and as a matter of fact I think the very first two Falcon Nine rockets and Falcon One I think they even wanted to try to recover using parachutes to recover the first stage. And now fast forward you know almost twenty years later and Rocket Lab is actually doing a concept like that where they're pulling a parachute after the first stage is reentering and they actually are trying to recover it with a helicopter. He's going to try to snatch it out of the air. They've actually done it. They've actually done it successfully once. How does the helicopter grab the the rocket with this giant like drag line and a hook? Oh, and then literally just like grabs, snags onto the parachute. Wow, it's pretty amazing. And but this is a small rocket. Their rocket's only about a metric ton. The the booster is empty, so the rocket releases parachutes. Yep, like really high up. I'd love to see this. Yeah, it's an interesting idea. There is so many interesting ideas and possibilities like SpaceX basically just innovated. A lot of different weird ideas, just in in the pursuit of making things more efficient, reusable—all of that. So basically thinking from first principles how to solve this problem, and so what you find is like you'll get all these kind of crazy kind of solutions. And with SpaceX, they weren't even getting to the point of the booster surviving reentry long enough to be able to pull the parachutes. Yeah, you know their mass fractions, you know and and that varies. Every single rocket's different, you know. All the you know for instance, Rocket Lab uses carbon composite fuselage and tanks, or you know same thing and that's very very lightweight has really good mass fractions and therefore their drag coefficients and things like that. They were able to survive reentry of the first stage, which is something that SpaceX wasn't able to do at the time. What's what the kind of the big I think breakthrough for SpaceX with reusing the booster? Is they they realized we have to basically slow down before we hit the atmosphere. So they actually do what they used to call a reentry burn, which I still think is the correct term because it is reentering the atmosphere. But now they call it the entry burn and they light up three of the nine Merlin engines not only to slow it down but actually even while those engines are firing it creates like a a literal like force field as it's falling through the through the atmosphere. Interesting and but it also decreases the velocity by almost half or around half and then that therefore decreases the amount of you know the biggest thing with the atmosphere is that as it gets compressed against the the front of any anything flying through the atmosphere, the compressed atoms just get hot and they can get so hot they turn into a plasma and they get so hot they can just absolutely destroy anything. So they slow down enough that the air molecules don't end up you know destroying the vehicle on reentry. And then they then they realized I think at some point it's probably a similar crossover. They're like, "Well, if we're lighting the engines already to slow down in the atmosphere, we can just use that same engine to land." And so like, well, what if we just stuck landing legs on it and just landed the thing vertically? And next thing you know is December twenty first, twenty fifteen they did exactly that for the first time. The first time, so you were there before that then, right? Yeah, yeah, in twenty fourteen, yep, early twenty fourteen. So that and for me like that was so fun watching. You know that was like the peak of me just becoming obsessed with with this idea. I am watching with like and back in the day it was like months between launches, you know. So a launch was like a big idea. I'd wake up at three AM to watch this landing attempt or whatever you know. And every you know there was CRS four almost almost landed, CRS five almost landed, CRS six, CRS seven blew up. I was watching that on I think it was like a Saturday morning or maybe a Sunday morning and I remember watching that and watch it blow up and I was like, oh my god, now what you know and. It blew up on ascent. It was their first failure, so it was their eighteenth flight, I believe. CRS seven, the upper stage had a one of the t here is bottles inside the tanks that are filled with helium and one of those bottles broke off on ascent and actually just completely over pressured the upper stage and the upper stage blew up and the whole rocket went kaboom. In an uncontrolled manner, and so so then they came back with vengeance. When they came back, the first mission back is the first time that they landed a rocket, which was awesome. So the return to flight after the anomaly was was yeah was was landing a rocket and stuck the landing. Yep, well actually the first time. So the first time you were there, what was that like? What do you remember from that from that day? Just I was surprised at how much bigger the rocket was than I imagined. I was I originally when I was going down to Kennedy Space Center, I was disappointed that I wasn't seeing like a you know I didn't know a ton about rockets. I knew enough to like know what a space shuttle was, what like the Saturn Five was, you know, but that was probably about the end of my knowledge. I just remember being disappointed that I wasn't seeing a big quote unquote NASA rocket flying. You know, I was thinking in my head like, oh, I am going to see this launch. It's probably going to be like you know three stories tall or something. You know, just some little skinny little stick and some little firecracker and yay, you know. And I think I'd almost been pitched that too. I think the the people that I was working for at the time, I think they kind of were downplaying it. It's like, well, it's not a big rocket here. It's not going to be that exciting, you know. But we get out there to the pad and I am like, this thing's huge. This is not a small rocket. Like this is, it's you know it's seventy meters tall, two hundred and twenty feet tall. It's huge. And I think people forget like the scale of that. You know it might look skinny and tall and all this stuff, but it's still a very very large piece of machinery. It's physically about as large as you can ship. The booster is about as big as you can ship across the country. Period, without like completely shutting down highways. You know it is made within those exact specifications of of like having you know lane privileges and bridges and everything. It's you know twelve feet wide, three point seven meters wide, and it's forty five meters long. So it's like exactly what you can fit with a pretty standard. You know like before you start getting into crazy amounts of of problems shipping the rocket and it's huge. It's huge and people just don't understand that. And so when I saw with my own eyes, I remember just being like, this is so much cooler than I thought. It's hard to believe that that thing is going to have to lift off the ground and launch up into the air. Maybe that's the most humbling aspect of it that something that size humans have come up with a way to take something that size and launch it up into the air. Yeah, there is certainly a very humbling aspect when you watch it actually leave. Was was there a sound to it? Was there like a feeling? What were the different experiences you first remember? Well, ironically, I didn't end up getting to see that one fly. Oh, I went home. My camera saw it. I left my camera out there like a remote triggered camera. My first images as a launch photographer at the time was was CRS three, but I went home. It scrubbed too many times. This is back in the day they were scrubbing like often and they'd be like a three day, five day, seven day. You just never knew. So I go home and I watch the live stream of it. So I didn't even get to experience my first launch. And any anyone that's ever tried to you know go to a launch is can probably empathize because yeah, scrubs are very common in the spaceflight world. So that one I didn't get to see, but since then obviously I've been able to attend very many launches. How much do you understand the control involved in the landing? How difficult is that problem? I couldn't tell you a single thing about like the code and like the avionics behind it, but I can tell you all the hardware that makes it happen. If that helps. Well, that I mean to me, it seems like whenever I talk to people, they they say it's not that big of a deal in terms of the the level of intelligence in the control, but to me it's just like when you observe it. It seems incredible because all the variables involved, all the uncertainties involved, all the. Um, because there is aerodynamics, I mean, like there is different temperatures, there's so so much going on with the fuel, the burning, the the combustion, just everything that's going on to be able to do perform control at such high stakes effectively. Like you know, I that code is probably not written in JavaScript, I guess is what I'm saying. Actually, no, I don't. It if I remember, I again this is well outside of my domain. Um, but um, they they code in a common language. It's is it's probably going to be C. Yeah, I'm pretty sure it is, and that was one of the things that was weird is that Elon when he you know started SpaceX was like, we're just going to code in the most common language so that we don't have to like have people learn this archaic you know weird thing and we can just literally pull people off the streets and be like, you write it you know and. Yeah, it's probably C plus plus. I mean, it'd be epic if it was like Python or something, but I don't. I think like reliable systems have to be written in C C plus plus probably, which is a common language, which is something. I imagine like NASA engineers would probably have to use some kind of proprietary language in in the olden days for for security for privacy all that kind of stuff. Well, in the old old old days, like they were inventing code and language from scratch. For sure, but still it's just still incredible that it's able to do that. Like just the feat of engineering involved is just it's truly. It's like one of the marvels to observe about these rockets coming back to Earth that they're able to land. Like the drama of it is just incredible to see. Yeah, well, the one of the fun things to remember too with specifically with the Falcon Nine and the Falcon Nine or Falcon Heavy boosters. I mean, it's the same thing basically. Um, they shut down all but one of the nine engines, and even with that one engine at its minimum throttle setting, it's still too much thrust to hover. So as this rocket's coming down, if they start a little bit too early, if they light that engine too early, it will actually stop above the ground and will not be able to lower itself. It will literally stop like say stay say it stop 200 feet above the ground. Their only option is to kill the engine and then it's just going to fall those 200 feet. So they it's what we call like a suicide burn or a hover slam kind of interchangeable terms because your thrust to weight ratio is never below one. So they have to actually literally be riding the throttle. So what you do is you kind of start ideally you know you kind of start like in the middle of your window of of throttle range. So let's pretend your engine can throttle down to 40 percent of its maximum rated thrust. You might start at like 70 percent of thrust in the middle of that like window of where it could burn. So that so if all of a sudden it's kind of coming in too hot, you have room to throttle up. If you're coming in too, you actually you know a little too early, you throttle it down, you have a little bit of wiggle room. It's just amazing how smoothly and how perfectly they're able to still control that thing even though they're down to one engine out of the nine and they're still riding like the finest margin of what's possible and they're they're continually playing with that to try to get it because every every bit of fuel they're using and propellant they're using to land is propellant they weren't using to put something into space. Yeah, so they want that to be as efficient as possible. They're really like watching them hone that in and and just continue to evolve and edit that and and just get it to be the workhorse. We're coming up on a hundred consecutive landings, perfect landings. A hundred, I think they've done like 150 something landings altogether, 160 altogether. But we're talking like in a row without blowing up, which at you know five years ago was completely experimental and insane. And now we're coming up to the point where we're 100 in a row. It's like this is becoming more reliable in the landing, which is not the primary mission. This is purely for SpaceX's like gain is to recover the booster. It has nothing to do with the effect of getting the payload on orbit, you know, most of the time. And the landing is really only for their their benefit and their gain. Long term gain, like it's a long term investment in in being able to recover the the boosters. Can you believe all this was done basically 10 years? So we've seen this development over a period of 10 years. So like we started commercial space flight at scale to today, where it's almost almost starting to be mundane. Yeah, Falcon Nine is able to do. Yeah, I can't really believe it. I mean, obviously, even just in the I I think I'm a fairly fair weather fan really didn't start paying attention to like 2014. Yeah, and just seeing what it was like back then to what it's like like I don't watch every launch at all anymore like I'll catch the big ones, I'll stream some of the really big ones but like back in the day I like I said would wake up in the middle of the night to catch these streams or you know catch these launches and watch them because they were such a big deal and there's maybe only five of them a year you know and so it's a really big deal nowadays it's like oh yeah there's literally like two a week on average now it's insane from SpaceX alone. Let alone you know United Launch Alliance Rocket Lab any of the Chinese missions you know I mean all there's countless it's it's insane it's hard to really really really hard to keep up with I wonder at which point in the future the number of launches to orbit will exceed the number of launches of airplanes like on the surface of Earth. Yeah, I have to admit I kind of have a hard time extrapolating out that far. You know, there's a lot of people that are like big futurists and really do think about like interplanetary stuff and think about colonizing Mars and stuff. I have a hard time predicting like when Starship's going to fly the orbital launch. You know, and that's like imminent ish like month or two scale time frame. And yet I'm still like I can't tell you when that's going. I can't tell you anything about like when we're going to land on Mars or what that's what that economy and what that you know the scale of launch operations is going to look like in order to do that because it's just so hard to I wouldn't have predicted where we're at today five years ago you know it's it's insane it's so hard to predict and. Yeah, but it's it's funny because there's so many like new companies starting up trying to predict that, and it's a really exciting you know startup culture right. I think when you make certain engineering decisions and hiring decisions and like what you focus on in terms of both business and engineering, it's good to think on the scale of 10, 20, 50, 100 years. That's one of the things that Elon is exceptionally good at, which is asking. The question: Okay, this might seem impossible right now, but what's the obvious way to do this if we look out 20 years? And then you start to make decisions. You start to make decisions about robotics, about brain computer interfaces, about space travel that are that make a lot of sense when you look at the scale of 10, 20, 50, 100 years and don't make any sense if you if you look at the scale of of just months. So but of course the actual work of day to day is focused on the next few months because there's deadlines, there's missions they have to accomplish. Anyway, we are returning back to the brief history of SpaceX rockets. Falcon Heavy. So what what else is there? So we talked about Falcon Nine and the rapid development there. What other flavors of a Falcon is there and how does that take us to Starship? Yeah, realistically, the Falcon Nine evolved more or less kind of like just got more powerful and a little bit longer and more capable. But nowadays they fly what's called the Block Five, even though it's like the eighth or ninth iteration of the of the Falcon Alpha. They call Block Five. It's the one that has the black landing legs, the black inner stage. They have a fleet of roughly 10 or so that are doing the majority of the leg work these days, and they're flying you know up to 15 times I think right now as the current booster leader. They're also recovering the fairings, so the nose cone of the rockets are frequently if not every time being recovered. Same with yeah, same with the booster for the most part, and the only thing being expended is the upper stage, and that's kind of where the Falcon Nine is ending. It really doesn't make sense to develop that infrastructure any longer. So they went with the next step, which is go even bigger. Physically, so they have more margin for upper stage usability, and that's what we see with Starship and Super Heavy. So the Super Heavy booster, the whole system is confusing. The whole system's kind of considered Starship, but technically the Starship is just the upper stage, which is also like the spaceship, which is also the upper stage, and then the booster itself is considered the Super Heavy booster. And that's what they've been working on. Publicly, it came out in 2016 as the at the time it was the ITS, the interplanetary transportation system. Later, and I think about 20 by the end of that year, 2017, it kind of became known as the BFR, the big Falcon rocket. Yes, yeah, and then I think it was about end of 2018 they started calling it Starship. But that is the that is where we're at today, and that's what they're working full steam ahead on. And what about Dragon? We mentioned Dragon, crew dragon, cargo dragon. Yeah, so they went from the cargo version of Dragon that flew about 20 times successfully to the International Space Station, except for that one CRS-7 where the rocket blew up in the capsule. Obviously didn't make it to the ISS. Then they went into the Dragon two, which has two variants. It has a crew variant, so we just call it crew dragon, and then there's the cargo version of of Dragon two, and that's just an updated, sleeker, sexier version of Dragon, and it's ironically it's heavier altogether. So it. You'll never see those those cool return to launch site landing. The boosters coming back to land for CRS missions anymore like we used to, but they landed on the drone ship anyway. And and yeah, that's been flying successfully. That's kind of the so there's yeah Starlink, Dragon, Falcon Nine, Falcon Heavy, and Starship system is kind of the whole. The whole SpaceX world really in terms of the the the spaceships involved. What do you are some of the major milestones in that history? We kind of mentioned a few. Yeah, sticking the landing is there something kind of stands out. Yeah, I would say definitely the big ones obviously like any of the first like the first flight of Falcon one, first flight of Falcon Nine, first time they went to the International Space Station. The first time they landed a booster, the first time they reused a booster, which is I think about six months after no, it was a year after it was SES 10, 2017. It was the first time they they reused one of those boosters, you know, and that was a big milestone. Like, can we even yeah, we recovered one we caught one, you know, it's like we got one now what. That was the first time they reflew one. Yeah, then flying humans was a huge one. DM two Bob and Doug for NASA. Bob and Doug, yeah, Bob and Doug. That was incredible. You know that was that was a huge huge step I think for SpaceX with flying people. So it's its first major commercial launching of humans out into space. Yeah, and not just into space because you know there's been people that have done you know space flights with you know like suborbital hops, but going into orbit and especially docking and rendezvous with the International Space Station is a it's a big deal. It's a whole. Until you really understand the physics involved and the scale involved of like just crossing the Carmen line going straight up versus going into orbit like they're just completely different things almost. What about Starship? Are we are we in a place where we can talk about milestones with Starship? Has there been or is it just been an epic journey of failures and successes of testing and and so on? Is there like yeah, what would you classify at this point as as a as a milestone that Starship or BFR whatever the name is was able to achieve. Well, so far the milestones we've seen, I'd say the first one would be the hop of they call it Star Hopper, and it's basically a very rudimentary rocket, but there was the first time they they utilized their new Raptor engine to produce thrust to to fly something. It first flew like literally like three meters off the ground or something like tethered to the ground, then it flew like 15 and then finally it flew 150 meters, and that was in 2019, and that was the first big milestone of Starship. And then after that, we saw SN5, SN6 kind of do the similar like 150 meter hops with a little bit more elegant systems. You know, proving out more of their their tank building, proving out more of their you know a lot of just subsystems, and then the big ones physically were in end end of 2020 and early 2021 when they flew the SN8, 9, 10, 11 and 15. What does the N stand for in SN? I think just serial number or serial number. Yeah, so SN these are just names numbers numerical representations of the different testing efforts. They skip some numbers, right? Yeah, if they if they scratch a test, yeah, and a lot of times it'd be like literally that they're building you know because at Starbase and what SpaceX is working on like the one foot is always in front of someone else's foot and like the arm is not knowing what the leg is doing sometimes. Yeah, they they will have someone working on you know they'll just be like, hurry up and build 40 of these tank sections and you build the bulkhead and you build the downcomer and you build the header tank, blah blah blah, and all of a sudden like oh we actually evolved that we don't use that header tank now so it's going to go onto this one so they'll have like parts of certain rockets built and it's like ah literally scrap it like not scrap it like in the you know joke term but like literally just go scrap it. And they so yeah they they just evolve and iterate so quickly. There were some epic explosions. I think Starship something about it probably just the amount of fuel just leads to some epic epic failures. Would you say Starship is the source of the most epic failures in terms of size of explosion? So you can literally measure in like a yield of explosive power, you know like like you could TNT. Like you can take a look at how much propellant is left over at the at the time of the explosion and you know Starship what's flown so far, even though it's physically one of the largest flying objects ever, just with the upper state alone, they've not filled it more than like 10 or 20 full of propellant. Yeah, and so it actually hasn't been the the failures have been really epic looking big visual fireballs, but in terms of space flight, they're still pretty small explosions, believe it or not. They could still go bigger. Oh, yeah, a lot, a lot. And of course, the test payload of a Tesla Roadster was launched. I forget what year that was. Yeah, that was 2018. That was quite epic. Would you put that on a milestone? Oh, yeah, yeah, Falcon Heavy demo was like definitely a a big, big, big milestone. Yeah, is that funny to you that there's a Roadster floating out there? Do we know the location of that Roadster at this? Oh, yeah, where is Roadster dot com? Yeah, oh yeah, where is it orbiting something? Yeah, it's orbiting the sun. So it's orbiting the sun and its orbit is basically between the Earth's orbit and beyond Mars. So I think of like 2. 5 AU if I remember right. So it's it's beyond Mars's orbit and its highest point and it's back at Earth kind of at its lowest point. I wonder if there's a mission where you're going to somehow connect with it once again and like place extra things into it. I wonder how challenging that is technically. Oh yeah, it could it could absolutely be done. You know the the hard thing at this point because it's on an eccentric orbit would be rendezvousing with it

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