第 353 期·中文精讀

丹尼斯·懷特:核聚變與能源的未來

Dennis Whyte: Nuclear Fusion and the Future of Energy

核聚變專家丹尼斯·懷特講磁約束與託卡馬克路線的技術難點,評估聚變能源何時真正可用。

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麻省理工學院等離子體科學與聚變中心(MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center)主任丹尼斯·懷特(Dennis Whyte)在 Lex Fridman 的播客裡做了兩個並排的陳述。主流聚變裝置要把燃料加熱到大約 1 億攝氏度。同樣體積裡儲存的能量,比一杯正在燒開的水還少。

溫度和能量往相反的方向跑,原因是密度。我們周圍的空氣,每立方厘米大約有 10 的 19 次方個分子。懷特團隊設計的聚變裝置,單位體積裡的粒子數比這個還低十萬倍。溫度極高,物質極稀薄,這兩件事同時成立,聚變的安全性和工程難度都從這裡長出來。

懷特在 MIT 教了二十多年書,長期研究等離子體與核聚變工程。這場對話從最基本的物理講起,一路走到能源政策、地緣政治和人類認知的邊界。中間幾次離題,離得很有意思。

質量少了一點點,能量就出來了

聚變的物理核心可以壓縮成一句話:輕元素合成重元素,產物的靜止質量比原料略小,差的那部分質量按 E=mc² 變成動能。

懷特強調的關鍵詞是"相對變化"。燒煤、燒木頭、燒天然氣,嚴格說也是 E=mc²,化學鍵的斷裂和形成同樣伴隨微小的質量變化。問題在於這個變化小到沒有人會察覺,原子量的有效數字裡根本看不見。

核聚變的相對質量虧損大約比化學反應大 1000 萬倍。這個倍數決定了能源的天花板。同樣一公斤燃料,聚變釋放的能量是化學燃燒的千萬倍量級。懷特說,這是自然規律給的,任何人都繞不過去。所以只要還在用質量當燃料,聚變就是能量的上限。

c 是光速,平方之後是一個極大的常數。宇宙裡任何地方、任何參考系,它都一樣。這也是為什麼一克質量裡藏著的能量,換算出來足夠點亮一座城市。

懷特給核工程新生上入門課時,第一堂課就把 E=mc² 擺在黑板上,讓學生從各個方向推導、變形、套用。到期末考,他把之前用過的公式倒過來寫,把"能量等於質量"換成"質量等於能量",換個問法再考一遍。通常有半個班的學生答不上來。這個直覺需要時間養。

還有一個推論容易被跳過。質量既然就是能量的一種儲存形態,那麼燃料的本質是質量,問題的本質就是"你能從多大的質量裡榨出多少能量"。化學燃燒榨出的是原子外層電子的結合能,核反應動的是原子核內部的強核力,兩者差距就在這一層結構上。

兩個氫核要撞在一起,得先翻過一座山

恆星中心是聚變的天然現場。太陽的核心溫度大約 2000 萬攝氏度,靠的是氫核一步步聚變成氦,同時放出巨大的動能。

恆星本質上就是氫到氦的轉換引擎。(丹尼斯·懷特)

為什麼終點是氦?氦原子核有兩個質子和兩個中子,成對的結構極其穩定。氫變成氦的那一刻,系統落到一個更穩定的能量臺階上,多餘的能量必須以動能的形式釋放出去。宇宙中絕大部分可見物質都是氫,太陽用十億年為單位的時間慢慢燒它,燒完的那天,這盞燈就滅了。

過程沒有看上去這麼容易。兩個氫核都帶正電,互相排斥。要把它們推到一個極近的距離以內,才能觸發強核力,讓反應發生。強核力在四種基本力裡強度最高,但作用範圍極其有限,只有原子核的尺度,大約 10 的負 15 次方米。庫侖斥力在遠處的衰減慢得多,所以粒子必須先有足夠高的速度,衝破這道電磁壁壘,才有機會落進強核力的短程陷阱。

溫度在這裡是速度的宏觀讀數。粒子平均動能不夠,反應機率就趨近於零。太陽核心 2000 萬度能燒起來,一靠巨大引力壓縮帶來的高密度,二靠量子隧穿給出的那一點點機率尾巴。地球上沒有太陽那團引力,只能用磁場和工程技術去補密度和約束時間。算下來,點火需要的溫度抬到 5000 萬攝氏度,實際設計目標往往是 1 億攝氏度。

懷特在這裡插入了一段物理學之外的

懷特在這裡插入了一段物理學之外的思考。有人問過費曼,假如只能給後代留下一句話,一句關於科學最要緊的結論,會說什麼。

答案不是強核力,不是聚變,也不是任何一條具體定律。費曼說的是:萬物皆由相互作用的粒子構成。就這麼一句。

懷特對這個答案評價很高,因為它看上去簡單到近乎無聊,實際上支撐起了整個現代科學。他上課時會問學生,你身體裡有多少個原子?幾乎沒人答得上來。答案是大約 10 的 28 次方。這個數量級不是冷知識,它提醒人一件事:你身上絕大部分的東西,是虛空加粒子,而這些東西能穩定地組合成一個會思考的存在,靠的是那四種力恰到好處的配比。

物理學家算過這些力之間的比值。某些關鍵核反應的機率如果低一點點,恆星根本點不著,宇宙裡就只有一團團不發光的氣體。懷特對多元宇宙假說的看法帶著工程師式的務實:這有點像自然選擇。那些力的關係不對的宇宙裡什麼都不會發生,所以能被觀測到的宇宙,天然就是"能發生點事情"的那一批。我們在這裡聊天這件事本身,已經篩掉了絕大多數可能性。

狗聞到的世界,我們永遠翻譯不過來

話題滑向認知邊界時,懷特的回答方式和一般物理學家不太一樣。他不談外星文明的智慧高低,談的是翻譯。

問題不在於智力,而在於感知的轉換。我遛狗的時候看它到處聞,我很清楚它感知到的世界,我這輩子都進不去。(丹尼斯·懷特)

他說人類偶爾能偷看一點別的物種的視角,靠的是技術。他自己的研究領域是光譜學,從遠紅外一路做到硬 X 射線,跨越好幾個數量級的電磁波段。人類肉眼能看見的,只是其中極窄的一條縫。蜜蜂能看到紫外,蛇能感知紅外,這些都是真實存在的資訊通道,只是我們的感官沒有接上去。

Lex 順著這個往下推:如果意識本身也是一種我們尚未理解的物理現象,那它可能是一條通往新物理的門。懷特沒有反駁,只說自己傾向於認為人類是極其出色的計算機器,同時也是認知上被鎖死的生物。這兩件事並不矛盾。

這段對話裡藏著一個對技術從業者有用的提醒。我們習慣把"更聰明"當成進步的方向,實際上感知維度的擴充套件往往帶來更大的躍遷。望遠鏡、顯微鏡、射電陣列、引力波探測器,本質上都是給人類裝上了新的感官。聚變裝置也一樣,它是人類為了看見並留住一顆微型恆星而造出來的感官器官。

系裡已經在開會討論 ChatGPT 了

訪談錄製於 2023 年 1 月,ChatGPT 剛火了一個多月。懷特說他們系裡的教授已經在郵件列表裡討論:怎麼判斷學生期末論文是不是自己寫的。

他的同事們照例用實證的辦法,直接拿 MIT 博士資格考試的題目去問 ChatGPT。當時的表現不算好。懷特補了一句,這只是開始。

他順手開了個玩笑,說最後學生和教授都會被 ChatGPT 取代,大家一起去海灘躺著。玩笑之後是一段認真的比較。

數字技術的擴散方式,和能源技術的擴散方式完全不同。ChatGPT 這種東西可以在幾個月內改變整個世界的工作方式,人們驚呼一聲,第二天照常上班,然後就再也想不起來之前是怎麼過的。網際網路就是這樣過來的。

聚變不會這樣。它需要剪綵、需要併網、需要審批、需要建廠、需要電網改造、需要幾十年的替代週期。懷特說得很直白:凡是跟能源有關的轉變,速度都慢,但它們是最深刻的那一類轉變。

我們能坐在這棟樓裡錄播客,讓世界各地的人聽到,根本原因是能源的使用,是工業革命以來不斷升級的密集能源使用。這是所有這一切的地基。(丹尼斯·懷特)

地基的特點是沒人注意。懷特提到,能源本身其實是一個被嚴重誤解的概念,很多人把"能源"和"能源載體"混為一談,把來源、儲存、傳輸當成同一件事,而這三者在物理上是完全不同的現象。

他舉了電動車的例子。你買了一輛電車,覺得它零排放。這個判斷成立的前提,是你把邊界畫在車身外面。順著充電線往回追,那頭可能是一座煤電廠或者天然氣電廠。電本身不是能源,它是一種載體,真正的能源在別的地方燃燒。

懷特沒有停在物理層面。他說這條鏈上還有另一段故事:原材料從哪裡挖出來,礦區的工人權利被尊重到什麼程度,挖礦和冶煉本身又消耗了多少能源。所有這些都發生在"零排放汽車"這個標籤的視野之外。

這個例子值得記住。任何一項技術的環保屬性,都取決於你把邊界畫在哪裡。邊界畫得越小,結論越漂亮。

燃料便宜到近乎免費,電卻不一定便宜

回到聚變本身。關於"便宜"這個說法,懷特做了很細的區分。

燃料確實近乎免費。如果全世界的電都由聚變提供,攤到每個人頭上的燃料成本大約是每年十美分。氘可以從海水裡提取,鋰用來增殖氚,儲量足夠按地質時間尺度計算。

但電不會因此免費。這個反常識的地方,正是聚變難以被公眾理解的癥結。我們習慣了"能源來自地下,挖出來就值錢"的模式,煤炭、石油、天然氣都是這樣。聚變不是。燃料幾乎不要錢,貴的是把那團物質加熱到 1 億度並且穩住的機器。

懷特的措辭很謹慎,他說聚變目前還不便宜,因為還沒有商業化。真正的主要挑戰,用更準確的說法,是經濟性。技術能不能做到讓度電成本有競爭力,這是決定聚變能否活下去的那道關。

清潔的部分相對直白。聚變把氫的同位素變成氦,氦是惰性氣體,不產生溫室氣體,不產生長期放射性廢料。裝置被中子轟擊後會有活化產物,但半衰期短,幾十年到上百年量級,和裂變廢料需要隔離上萬年的情況不在一個層級。

安全的部分最容易被誤解,也最有意思。1 億攝氏度聽起來像末日裝置,實際上恰恰相反。

地球上的東西都在 300 開爾文左右。要讓物質達到 1 億度,你必須把它和一切 terrestial 的東西徹底隔開,不能接觸任何容器壁,不能接觸空氣,不能接觸任何室溫物體。這種隔離是聚變實現的先決條件,順帶也就成了安全的來源:那團東西根本不知道自己在哪。

更關鍵的是能量密度。懷特回到那個對比上:單位體積儲存的能量,比一杯沸水還少。水比聚變等離子體稠密一億到十億倍,溫度低幾個數量級,算下來總能量反而更高。所以哪怕等離子體瞬間全部散掉,釋放的能量也燒不穿什麼東西。

想象一座給劍橋市供電的聚變電廠,你走上去這麼一比劃,它就滅了。因為瞬間變冷,反應立刻停。(丹尼斯·懷特)

還有一層。聚變不是鏈式反應。裂變靠中子不斷引發新的裂變,一旦失控就停不下來;聚變必須持續被加熱、被約束,一旦條件破壞就自動熄滅。它的物理特性是熱穩定的:溫度偏離最優點,反應率下降,功率下降,系統往回走。這個負反饋是內建的,不依賴任何控制系統。

燃料量也天然受限。裝置裡任何時刻存在的燃料只有極少量,就算全部反應完,釋放的能量也有上限。懷特說,就算裝置的功耗突然升高,它也只是把自己燒盡,然後就沒了。

至於武器化,他的回答更乾脆。聚變需要的條件太苛刻,裝置是為產能設計的,任何試圖把它改作他用的嘗試,結果通常是它不工作。所以聚變設施的安全考量,和化工廠、任何大型能源設施沒有本質區別:裝置故障、部件熔損、工業事故。這些和聚變本身無關,是複雜工程的通病。

不過也不是零風險。聚變會瞬時產生電離輻射,必須做遮蔽。懷特拿牙科 X 光和癌症放療打比方:我們不會因為有輻射就放棄這些技術,而是把有益的部分留下,把有害的部分壓到最小。

鐵在中間,兩邊都能往下走

要理解聚變和裂變的關係,得看那張經典曲線:每一種元素核子的平均結合能,隨原子序數先升後降,在鐵附近達到峰值。

鐵是能量上的谷底。比鐵輕的元素聚變會往鐵的方向走,釋放能量;比鐵重的元素裂變會往鐵的方向走,也釋放能量。鈾比鐵重一倍多,把它劈開,產物更靠近鐵,多餘的質量變成動能。氫比鐵輕得多,把它捏成氦,也是往鐵的方向走。

所以聚變和裂變是同一張圖上的兩個方向,名字也很對稱:fission 是分裂,fusion 是合併。懷特特意指出這個命名上的巧合,一個講拆,一個講合,正好對應曲線兩端。

裂變靠中子觸發。中子不帶電,能悄無聲息地接近鈾 235 的原子核,不需要克服庫侖壁壘,一靠近就能誘發不穩定,把核劈成兩半,同時放出兩三個新中子和大量能量,新中子再去撞別的核,鏈式反應就此成立。聚變沒有這個機制,因為兩個帶正電的核必須靠高溫硬撞,撞不上就散了。

這條曲線還有一個隱含的結論:元素週期表上鐵以下的元素,理論上都能透過聚變產能,鐵以上的元素,只能透過裂變。人類能用的能源,本質上都被這張圖的形狀框住了。

MIT 那臺機器,和一場持續三十年的賭局

MIT 等離子體科學與聚變中心的歷史可以追溯到 1970 年代。它長期是美國聚變研究的重鎮,最有名的裝置是 Alcator 系列託卡馬克,其中 Alcator C-Mod 保持了多年磁場強度的世界紀錄,做出了很多關於等離子體邊界物理和偏濾器設計的關鍵成果。

2016 年,C-Mod 在聯邦預算削減中被關停。那段時間美國聚變界的氣氛相當低落。懷特正是在這個節點接手主任位置的。

轉折來自一項材料上的進展。高溫超導帶材,特別是以稀土鋇銅氧(REBCO)為代表的第二代高溫超導材料,開始具備工業化的可能性。這種帶材能在液氮溫區甚至更高溫度下承載極大的電流密度,產生的磁場強度遠超傳統低溫超導磁體。

磁場強度對託卡馬克的意義是決定性的。等離子體約束能力大致隨磁場強度的三次方到四次方增長,而裝置體積隨磁場強度大致按三次方縮小。磁場上去了,同樣效能的裝置可以小一個數量級。這是 SPARC 專案的全部邏輯。

SPARC 是 MIT 和衍生公司 Commonwealth Fusion Systems 合作設計建造的緊湊型託卡馬克,目標是 2025 年前後實現 Q 大於 1,也就是聚變輸出功率超過加熱輸入功率。它的體積比 ITER 小得多,造價也低得多。ITER 在法國南部,由多國合作,目標是 Q 等於 10,但首等離子體的時間一再推遲到 2030 年代中後期。

2021 年 9 月,SPARC 團隊測試了世界首個達到 20 特斯拉場強的聚變級高溫超導磁體。這個數字比 ITER 的設計場強高出一大截。懷特在訪談裡沒有過多渲染這件事,只把它當作路線圖上的一個節點。

然後就是 2022 年 12 月 13 日。美國能源部宣佈,勞倫斯利弗莫爾國家實驗室的國家點火裝置(NIF)在實驗中首次實現了聚變靶增益大於 1:鐳射輸入的 2.05 兆焦,聚變輸出 3.15 兆焦。

這是科學史上的一個里程碑。人類第一次在實驗室裡證明了聚變可以淨放能。但懷特會很小心地提醒讀者別把這件事讀過頭:NIF 是鐳射慣性約束路線,用的是全球最大的鐳射裝置,裝置本身從電網抽取的能量約 300 兆焦,靶增益是一回事,整 facility 的能量賬是另一回事。它的設計初衷是核武器物理研究,不是發電。

兩種路線的關係值得說清楚。磁約束(託卡馬克、仿星器)靠強磁場長時間約束稀薄等離子體,走的是一條穩態發電的路。慣性約束(NIF 的鐳射打靶)靠瞬間壓縮一個小球,走的是脈衝的路。前者離商業發電更近,後者離武器物理和基礎科學更近。NIF 的成功對磁約束路線沒有直接的工程價值,但它對公眾認知和資本信心的影響是真實的。

資本進來了,時間表還是很難說

訪談錄製時,聚變領域的私人投資已經從幾年前的幾億美元漲到接近 50 億美元的量級,Commonwealth Fusion Systems 一家就融了超過 18 億美元。這個數目放在能源行業不算大,放在聚變史上是從未有過的。

錢進來之後,節奏變了。以前是國家實驗室按預算週期推進,現在是公司按里程碑推進。懷特對這種變化的態度是謹慎樂觀。他反覆強調的一件事是:聚變最難的部分從來不是物理原理,是工程整合和成本。

被問到時間表時,他的說法大致是這樣:2030 年代初期到中期,第一座示範電站併網,是可信的目標。這個時間表比 ITER 的路線快得多,前提是高溫超導磁體的製造良率和成本能按預期下降。

他也承認有失敗的可能。SPARC 如果點不著,整個高溫超導路線會受重創。但他認為值得賭,因為回報太大:人類會得到一個燃料近乎無限、不產生長期廢料、不能用於武器的基荷電源。

至於地緣政治,懷特沒有給出答案,只提出了問題。當燃料從地下的礦藏變成海水裡的氘,能源的地圖會被重畫。石油美元的邏輯、產油國的戰略地位、圍繞資源走廊的軍事部署,全都要重新算一遍。他說人類歷史上打了不少資源戰爭,將來恐怕得另找理由。

這句話聽著像玩笑,其實是個真問題。能源稀缺是國際秩序的一塊基石,把它抽掉會發生什麼,沒有人有經驗。

為什麼值得現在就關心

反觀整場對話,懷特一直在做同一件事:把聚變從"永遠還要三十年"的敘事裡拽出來,放回到具體的物理、工程和成本問題裡。

1 億度不是末日,因為能量密度比一杯開水還低。燃料近乎免費不等於電會免費,因為貴的從來是機器。聚變不會像 ChatGPT 那樣一夜改變世界,因為能源轉型的物理週期擺在那裡。

這些結論單獨看都不新鮮,連起來看會改變判斷。一個技術值不值得關注,不看它聽起來多科幻,看它的物理約束在哪裡、成本瓶頸在哪裡、時間常數有多大。用這三條尺子去量聚變,得到的結論是:物理上成立,工程上有明確的路徑,經濟上仍未被證明,時間上以十年計。

對技術從業者來說,這套量法可以遷移到任何一項"改變世界"的宣稱上。AI、量子計算、合成生物,都可以問同樣三個問題:物理可行嗎,工程瓶頸在哪一環,擴散的時間常數是多少。

最後,懷特提到 James Burke 的《宇宙改變的那一天》(The Day the Universe Changed)。那本書的核心觀點是:宇宙對我們而言就是我們所知道和所感知的樣子,當人類獲得一個根本性的新認知,對我們來說宇宙就變了,儘管客觀上它還是原來的樣子。

1930 年代,人類第一次弄明白恆星怎麼發光。在那之前,太陽為什麼亮著是個謎。弄清楚之後,人類知道了宇宙裡為什麼可以有生命。懷特把這個時刻稱為"宇宙改變的那一天"。

如果聚變真的成功,那樣的日子會再來一次。這一次改變的不是認知,是物質基礎。

  • 把"能源"和"能源載體"分開想。看到任何零排放宣稱,先問電從哪來、材料從哪來、邊界畫在哪裡。
  • 判斷一項技術時,用三把尺子:物理約束、工程瓶頸、擴散時間常數。三個都過,才值得下注。
  • 關注 SPARC 的首次等離子體和 Q 值結果,這是高溫超導路線最關鍵的驗證點,時間視窗在 2025 到 2027 年。
  • 讀一讀 NIF 那次點火的技術細節,特別是靶增益和設施總能量賬的區別,這是理解科學突破與工程可用之間距離的好樣本。
  • 如果做投資或職業選擇,注意聚變產業鏈的上游:高溫超導帶材、大功率電源、真空與低溫裝置、氚增殖材料。這些環節的確定性比整機高。
  • 去讀 James Burke 的《宇宙改變的那一天》,或者看那部紀錄片。它會改變你看技術史的方式。
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Lex Fridman Podcast #353 – Dennis Whyte: Nuclear Fusion and the Future of Energy Machine transcription by Qwen3-ASR 0.6B (MLX, local, Apache-2.0). May contain recognition errors. The following is a conversation with Dennis White, nuclear physicist at MIT and the director of the MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center. And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast. We got Rocket Money for helping you cancel unwanted subscriptions, MasterClass for online education and Inside Tracker for bio monitoring. She was wise, and my friends. And now onto the full ad reads. As always, no ads in the middle. I try to make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff, maybe you will do. This show is brought to you by Rocket Money, a personal finance app that finds and cancels unwanted subscriptions, monitors your spending and helps you lower your bills all in one place. I use it especially to monitor my subscriptions. It actually in a indirect way makes me realize all the things I am subscribed to that actually add value to my life. For example, it shows Audible and Netflix, maybe Spotify. I am trying to think things that pay for every single month and things that had a huge amount of value to my life. And in that list, there are a bunch of subscriptions that I don't need that are completely forgot or actually I aspired to use but end up not using. And then you kind of have to confront yourself with the reality of the fact that you plan to use a service and you don't use it and why pay a huge amount of money every month every year to use it. And so it's really nice to kind of have an introspective analysis of your life, reflect and start anew. I am a big believer that habits every single day can make a huge amount of progress in your growth in your learning in your development in that same way. Paying for stuff every single day every week every month can make a huge impact in your bank account. So that's why you want to remove the stuff you are actually not using. Of course, Rocket Money helps you manage other kinds of spending in general. But for me, the subscription is a big one. Go to rocketmoney dot com slash lex to cancel unwanted subscriptions and manage your money the easy way. That's rocketmoney dot com slash lex. This show is also brought to you by MasterClass. One hundred and eighty dollars a year gets you an all access pass to watch courses from the best people in the world in their respective disciplines. The list is ridiculous. Chris Hadfield, Will Wright, Carlos Santana, Gary Casparov, Daniel Negreanu, Neil Gaiman, Martin Scorsese. I would love to talk to Martin Scorsese on this podcast. I think he's probably if not the he's one of the greatest directors of all time, but also just a really interesting mind, a really unique mind, a really unique cinematographer, director, producer, storyteller, visionary. Has created some of the greatest movies ever, but I think a podcast is a totally different thing than a masterclass. A masterclass is a really condensed, elegant, clear, succinct summary of all the deep lessons that the person has about the particular expertise. And that's the kind of people you want to learn about a thing from is the best people that actually have done it, not just good at teaching but good at doing. The best teachers are the ones that have reached the top and have sort of done it for long enough to be able to reflect on it and condense it down into wisdom. And that's what MasterClass is really good at. You can get unlimited access to every MasterClass and get fifteen percent off an annual membership at masterclass dot com slash lex. This show is also brought to you by Inside Tracker, a service I use to track biological data. They have a bunch of plans, most include blood tests that give you information to make decisions about your health. Like John Mayer said, your body is a wonderland. It's a source of a lot of signal, a lot of data. It's obvious to me that in the twenty-first century, maybe the twenty-second century, we're going to create systems for the collection of that data and then use machine learning to analyze that data in order to understand what is going on inside of what you should do next. That means recommendations about lifestyle, about health, about everything, career advice, relationship advice. Yeah, you should get blood data that then help you understand what your dating life should be like. That is obviously the future. And then also if you can get data from the brain, the electrical, the mechanical, the chemical signals from the brain, high resolution, regular collection of that data all inside an app and make predictions based on that on what you should do with your life. Because otherwise, just like I am right now, you would be deeply lost, deeply lost in the turmoil of the human condition. Services like Inside Tracker can at least give you a little bit of hope. Get special savings for limited time when you go to insidetracker dot com slash lex. This is Alex Friedman podcast to support it. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here is Dennis White. Let's start with a big question: What is nuclear fusion? It's the underlying process that powers the universe. So, as the name implies, it fuses together or brings together two different elements—technically nuclei—that come together and if you can push them together close enough that you can trigger essentially a reaction. What happens is that the the element typically changes. So this means that you change from one element to not the chemical element to another. Underlying what this means is that you change the nuclear structure. This rearrangement through equals mc squared releases large amounts of energy. So fusion is the fusing together of lighter elements into heavier elements. And when you go through it, you say, "Oh, look, so here were the initial elements—typically hydrogen—they had a particular mass rest mass, which means just the mass when they're with no kinetic energy. And when you look at the product afterwards, it has less rest mass. And so you go, well, how is that possible? Because you have to keep mass, but mass and energy are the same thing, which which is what equals mc squared means. And the the conversion of this comes into kinetic energy, namely energy that you can use in some way. And that's what happens in the center of stars. So fusion is literally the reason life is is viable in the universe. So fusion is happening in our sun. And what are the elements? The elements are hydrogen that are coming together. It goes through a process which is probably gets a little bit too detailed, but there is it's a somewhat complex catalyzed process that happens in the center of stars. But in the end, stars are big balls of hydrogen, which is the lightest, the simplest element, the lightest element, the most abundant element. Most of the universe is hydrogen. And it's essentially a sequence through which these processes occur that you end up with helium. So those are the primary things, and the reason for this is because helium has features as a nucleus like the interior part of the atom that is extremely stable. And the reason for this is helium has two protons and two neutrons. These are the things that make up nuclei that make up all of us, along with electrons. And because it has two pairs, it's extremely stable. And for this reason, it when you convert the hydrogen into helium, it just wants to stay helium and it wants to release kinetic energy. So stars are basically conversion engines of hydrogen into helium. And I mean, this also tells you why you love fusion. I mean, because our our sun will last you know ten billion years approximately. That that's how long the fuel will last. But to do that kind of conversion, you have to have extremely high temperatures. It is one of the criteria for doing this, but it's the easiest one to understand. Why is this? It's because effectively what this requires is that these hydrogen ions or which is really the bare nucleus. So they have a positive charge. Everything has a positive charge of those ones is that to get them to to trigger this reaction, they must approach within distances which are like the size of the nucleus itself because the nature. In fact, what it's really using is something called the strong nuclear force. There is four fundamental forces in the universe. This is the strongest one, but it has a strange property is that it while it's the strongest force by far, it only has impact over distances which are the size of a nucleus. So to get put that into what does that mean? It's a millionth of a billionth of a meter, okay, incredibly small distances. But because the distances are small and the particles have charge, they want to push strongly apart. Namely, they have repulsion that wants to push them apart. So it turns when you go through the math of this, the average velocity or energy of the particles must be very high to have any significant probability of the reactions happening. And so the center of our sun is at about twenty million degrees Celsius. And on Earth, this means it's one of the first things we teach you know entering graduate students you can do a quick you can do a quick basically power balance and you can you can determine that on Earth it it requires a minimum temperature of about fifty million degrees Celsius on Earth. To perform fusion, to get enough fusion that you would be able to make get energy gain out of it, so you can trigger fusion reactions at lower energy but they become almost vanishingly small at lower temperatures than that. First of all, let me just linger on some crazy ideas. So one, the strong force just stepping out and looking at all of physics. Is it weird to you that there is these forces and they are very particular like it operates at a very small distance and then gravity operates at a very large distance and and they are all very specific and the standard model describes three of those forces extremely well and there is. And this is one of them. Yeah, this is one of them, and it's just all kind of works out. There is a big part of you that's you know an engineer that you step back and almost look at the philosophy of physics. So it's interesting because as a scientist, I see the universe through that lens of essentially the interesting things that we do are through the forces that are get used around those and everything works because of that. Richard Feynman had I don't know if you ever had Richard Feynman it's a little bit of a tangent but he's never been on the he's never been on the podcast he was unfortunately passed away but one like a like a hero to almost all all physicists and a part of it was because of what you said he kind of looked through a different lens at these but typically look like very dry like equations and relationships and he kind of I think he brought out the wonder of it in some sense right for for those. He posited what would be if you could write down a single, not even really a sentence but a a single concept that was the most important thing scientifically that we that we knew about that in other words you had only one thing that you could transmit like a future or past generation. It was very interesting. It was so it's not what you think it wasn't like oh strong nuclear force or fusion or something like this. And it's very profound, which was he was that the reason that matter operates the way that it does is because all matter is made up of individual particles that interact each other through forces. That was it. So just that atomic theory basically, yeah, which is like wow that's like so simple but it's not so simple. It's because like who thinks about atoms that they're made out of like I this is a good this is a good question I give to my students how many atoms are in your body like almost no students can answer this but to me that's like a fundamental thing. By the way, it's about ten to the twenty-eight. Ten to twenty-eight. So that's you know trillion you know million trillion trillion or something like that yes. So one thing is to think about the number and the other is to start to really ponder the fact that it all holds together. Yeah, it all holds together and you are actually that you are more that than you are anything else. Yes, exactly. Yeah, no, I mean there there are people who do study such things of the fact that if you look at the for example the ratios between those fundamental forces, people have figured out oh if this ratio was different by some factor like a factor of two or something. Oh, it's like oh this would all like not work. And I look you look at the sun right it's like so it turns out that there are key reactions that if they had slightly lower probability, no star would ever ignite, and then life wouldn't be possible. It does seem like the the universe set things up for us that it's possible to do some cool things, but it's challenging. So that that keeps it fun for us. Yeah, yeah, that's the way I look at it. I mean, the you know the multiverse model is an interesting one because there are you know quantum scientists who look and figure I was like oh it's like oh yeah, like quantum science perhaps tells us that there are almost an infinite you know variety of other universes. But the way that it works probably is it's almost like a form of natural selection. It's like well the universes that didn't have the correct or interesting relationships between these forces nothing happens in them. So almost by definition, the fact that we're having this conversation means that we're in one of the interesting ones by default. Yeah, one of the somewhat interesting, but there is probably super interesting ones where we I tend to think of humans as incredible creatures. Our brain is is an incredible computing device, but I think we're also extremely cognitively limited. I can imagine alien civilizations that are much much much much more intelligent in ways we can't even comprehend in terms of their ability to to construct models of the world to do physics to do physics and mathematics. I would see it in a slightly different way. It's actually it's because we have, um, we have we have creatures that live with us on the Earth that have cognition right that understand and move through their environment, but they they actually see things in a way or they sense things in a way which is so fundamentally different. It's really hard. Like the it's it's the problem is the translation not necessarily intelligence so it's the perception of the world so I have a dog and when when I go out and I see my dog like smelling things, there is a realization that I have that he sees or senses the world in a way that I can never like I can't understand it because I can't translate my way to this. We get little glimpses of this as humans though by the way because there are some parts of it for example optical information which comes from light. Is that now because we've developed the technology we can actually see things you know I've had I get this you know as a one of my areas of research is spectroscopy so this means the study of light you know and I and I get this quote unquote see things or representations of them from you know the far infrared all the way to like hard hard X rays which is several orders of magnitude of the of the light intensity but our own human eyes like see a teeny teeny little sliver of this. So that even like bees for example see a different place than we do. So I don't I think if you think of there is already other intelligences like around us in a way in a limited way because of the way they can communicate but it's like those are already baffling. In many ways, yeah. If we just focus in on the senses, there is already a lot of diversity, but there is probably things we're not even considering as possibilities. For example, whatever the heck consciousness is, could actually be a door into understanding some physical phenomena we're not haven't even begun understanding. So just like you said, spectroscopy, there could be a similar kind of spectrum for consciousness that we're just like we're like these dumb descendants of apes like walking around. It sure feels like something to experience the color red, but like we don't have. It's the same as in the ancient times you experience physics, you experience light. It's like oh it's bright and you know, yeah, and you construct kind of some. We might actually experience this faster than we thought because we might be building another another kind of intelligence. Yeah, and that that intelligence will explain to us how silly we are. There was an email thread going around the professors in my department already of so what is it going to look like to figure out if students have actually written their term papers or it's chat the chat GPT chat GPT. Um, it was so as usual as we tend to be empiricists in my field, so of course they were in there like trying to figure out if if it could answer like questions for a qualifying exam to get into the PhD program at MIT, which was they didn't do that well at that point. But of course, this is just the beginning of it. So we have some interesting ones to go eventually. Both the students and the professors will be replaced by chat GPT and we'll sit on the beach. I really recommend you know the I don't know if you've ever seen them. It's called The Day the Universe Changed. This is a movie. James Burke, he's a science historian based in the UK. He had had a fairly famous series on on public television called Connections. I think it was, but the one that I really enjoyed was The Day the Universe Changed. And the the reason for the title of it was that, um, he says the universe is what we know and perceive of it. So when there is a fundamental insight as to something new, the universe for us changes. Of course, the universe from an objective point of view is the same as it was before, but for us it has changed. So he walks through these these moments of perception in in in in the history of humanity that like changed what we were right. And so as I was thinking about coming to discuss this, you know people see fusion. Oh, it's still far away, or we've been it's been slow progress. It's like when my when my godmother was born, like people had no idea how stars worked. So you talk about like that day, that insight—the universe changed—is like, oh, this is the I mean, and they still didn't understand all the parts of it, but you know they basically got it. It was like, oh, because of the because of the understanding of these processes, it's like we unveiled the reason that there can be life in the universe. That's probably one of those days the universe changed, right? Yeah, and that was around the nineteen thirties. It seems like technology developing faster and faster and faster. I tend to think just like with chat GPT, I think this year might be extremely interesting, just with how rapid. And how profitable the efforts in artificial intelligence are—that just stuff will happen where our whole world is transformed like this, and there is a shock, and then next day you kind of go on and you adjust immediately. You probably won't have a similar kind of thing with nuclear fusion with energy because there is there is probably going to be an opening ceremony and stuff, and an announcement that take months, but with with digital technology you can just have a immediate transformation of society, and then it'll be this gasp and then you kind of adjust like we always do, and then you don't don't you remember just like with the internet and so on how the days were before. And how the world before right. I mean fusion will be because it's energy it's it's nature is that it will be and anything that has to do with energy use tends to be a slower transition, but they are the most I would argue some of the most profound transitions that we make. I mean the reason that we can live like this and sit in this building and have this podcast and people around the world is is at its heart is energy use and its intense energy use that came from the evolution of starting to use intense energies at the beginning of the industrial revolution up to now. It's that it's like it's a bedrock actually of all of these, but it doesn't tend to come overnight. Yeah, and some of the most important some of the most amazing technologies one we don't notice because we take it for granted because it enables this whole thing. Yeah, which is energy which is amazing for how fundamental it is to our society and way of life is a very poorly understood concept actually just even energy itself people confuse energy sources with energy storage with energy transmission these are different physical phenomena which are very important. So for example, you know you buy an electric car and you go oh good I have an emission free car, and ah but it's like so so why do you say that well it's because if I draw the circle around the car I have electricity and it doesn't emit any anything okay but you plug that into a grid where you follow that wire back there could be a coal power plant or a gas power plant at the end of that oh really. I mean so this isn't like carbon free oh, and it's not their fault it's just you know they don't like the car isn't a source of energy the underlying source of energy was the combustion of the fuel back somewhere. Plus there is also a story of how the raw materials are mined in which parts of the world with sort of basic respect or or deep disrespect of human rights that happens in that mining so the whole supply chain there is a story there that's deeper than just the particular electric car with a circle around it and the physics or the science of it too is the energy use that it takes to do that digging up which is also important and all that. Yeah anyway so. Yeah we wandered away from fusion but yes it's a beautiful but but it's very important actually in the in the context of this just because, you know those of us who work in in fusion and these other kinds of sort of disruptive energy technologies it's it's interesting I do think about like what would it what isn't going to mean to society to have an energy source that is like this, that that would be like fusion you know which has which has such completely different characteristics. For example you know free unlimited access to the fuel but it has technology implications so what does this mean geopolitically what does it mean for how we how we distribute wealth within our society it's. It's very difficult to know, but probably profound. Yeah we're going to have to find another reason to start wars. Instead of resources we're going to we've done a pretty good job of that over the course of our histories yeah. So we talked about the the forces of physics and again sticking to the philosophical before we get to the specific technical stuff. E equals mc squared you mentioned how amazing is that to you that energy and mass are the same. And what does that have to do with nuclear fusion? So it has to do with everything we do it's the fact that energy and mass are equivalent to each other they're just the way we usually comment to it is that they're just energy just in different forms. Can you intuitively understand that? Yes, but it takes a long time. I, um having for all but usually often I I teach the the introductory class for incoming nuclear engineers and and so we put this up as an equation and we go through many iterations of using this to how you derive it how you use it and so forth. And then usually in the final exam I would give I would basically take all the equations that I've used before and I flip it around I basically instead of thinking about energy is equal to mass is sort of mass is equal to energy and I ask the question a different way and usually about half the students don't get it it takes a while. It's to get that intuition yeah so so in the end it's interesting is that this is is actually the source of all free energy because that energy that we're talking about is kinetic energy if it can be transformed from mass so it turns out even even though we we used equals mc squared this is burning coal and and burning gas are and burning wood is actually still equals mc squared the problem is that you would never know this because the relative change in the mass is incredibly small by the way which comes back to fusion which is that equals mc squared okay so what does this mean it tells you that the the amount of energy that is liberated in a particular reaction when you change mass has to because c squared is that the speed of light squared it's a large number it's a very large number and it's totally constant everywhere in the universe which is which is another weird thing which is another weird thing and in all rest frames and actually the relativity stuff gets more difficult conceptually until you get through anyway so you go you go to that and and it's and what that tells you is that it's the relative it's the relative change in the mass will tell you about the relative amount of energy that's liberated and this is what makes fusion and you asked about fusion as well too this is what makes them extraordinary it's because the relative change in the mass is very large as compared to what you get like in a chemical reaction in fact it's about it's about ten million times larger. And that is at the heart of why you use something like fusion it's because that is a fundamental of nature like you can't beat that so of whatever you do if you are thinking about and why do I care about this well because mass is like the fuel right so this means gathering the resources that it takes to gather a fuel to hold it together to deal with it the environmental impact it would have and fusion will always have twenty million times the amount of energy release per reaction that you could of those so this is why you know we consider it the ultimate like environmentally friendly energy source is because of that. So is it is it correct to think of mass broadly as a kind of storage of energy? Yes, you mentioned it's environmentally friendly so nuclear fusion is a source of energy it's cheap clean safe so easy access to fuel and virtually unlimited supply no production of greenhouse gases little radioactive waste produced allegedly. Can can you sort of elaborate why it's cheap clean and safe? I'll start with the easiest one cheap it is not cheap yet because it hasn't been made at a commercial scale right flies when you are having fun yes yeah yeah but yes not yet we'll talk about actually we'll we'll come back to that because it this is cheap or or a more technically correct term that it's economic that it's economically interesting is is really the primary challenge actually of fusion at this point. But I think we can get back to that so what were the other ones you said so so cheap we're actually when we're talking about cheap we're thinking like asymptotically like if you take it forward several hundred years that's sort of because of how much availability there is of resources to use of the fuel yeah of the fuel we should separate those two the fuel will the fuel is already cheap it's basically free right. What do you mean by basically free so if if we were to be using fusion fuel sources to power your and and it's like that's all we had was fusion power plants around and we were doing it the fuel cost per person or something like ten cents a year it's like it's free okay. This is why it's hard in some ways I think it's hard to understand fusion because people see this and go oh if the fuel is free this means the energy source is free because we're used to energy sources like this so we you know we spend resources and drill to get gas or oil or we chop wood or we make coal we find coal or these things. Right so fusion this is what makes fusion and it's also it's not an intermittent renewable energy source like wind and solar it's like but this is this makes it hard to understand so as you are saying the fuel is free why isn't the like why isn't the energy source free and it's because of the necessary technologies which must be applied to basically recreate the conditions which are in stars. In the center of stars in fact so there is only one natural place in the universe that fusion fusion energy occurs that's in the center of stars so that's going to bring a price to it depending on the the cost and sorry the size and complexity of of the technology that's needed to recreate those things. We'll talk about the details of the technologies and which parts might be expensive today and which parts might be expensive in two hundred years exactly. It will have a revolution I am certain of it. So about clean so clean is at its heart what it does is convert it basically converts hydrogen into it's it's it's heavier forms of hydrogen the one the most predominant one that we use on Earth. And converts it into helium and some other products but primarily helium is the product that's left behind so helium safe inert gas you know in fact that's actually what our sun is doing is eventually going to extinguish itself because it'll just make so much helium it doesn't it doesn't do that so in that sense clean because there is no there is no emissions of of carbon or pollutants that come directly from the combustion of the fuel itself. And safe safe yeah we're talking about very high temperatures yeah yeah so this is also the counter intuitive thing so I told you temperatures which that like fifty million degrees or it actually tends to be more like about one hundred million degrees is really what we aim for so how can one hundred million degrees be safe and it's safe because it is. This is so much hotter than anything on Earth where everything on Earth is at around three hundred Kelvin you know it's around a few tens of degrees Celsius and what this means is that in order to get a medium to those temperatures you have to completely isolate it from anything to do with terrestrial environment. It can have no contact like with anything on Earth basically so this means what we this is the technology that I just described is it fundamentally what it does is it takes this fuel and it isolates it from any terrestrial conditions so that it has no idea it's on Earth it's not touching any object that that's at room temperature including the walls of the containment even the including the walls of the containment building or containment device or even air or anything like this so. So it's that part that makes it safe in this and that's actually another aspect to it but that that fundamental part makes it so safe and in the main line approach to fusion is also that it's very hot but there is very very few particles in at any time in in the thing that we view the power plant. Actually the more correct way to do it is you say there is very few particles per unit volume so in a cubic centimeter and cubic meters and so we can do this so right now we're although we don't think of air really as a there is atoms floating around us and there is a density because if I wave my hand I can feel the air pushing against my face that means we're in a fluid or a gas which is around us that has a particular number of atoms per cubic meter right so it's what this actually turns out to be ten to the twenty fifth so this is one with twenty five zeros behind it per cubic meter so we can figure out like cubic like cubic meters about like this the volume of this table like the whole volume of this table. Okay very good so like fusion or a few of those so fusion like the mainstream one of fusion like what we're working on at MIT will have a hundred thousand times less particles per unit volume than that so this is very interesting because it's extraordinarily hot one hundred million degrees but it's very tenuous. And what matters from the engineering and safety point of view is the amount of energy which is stored per unit volume because this tells you about the the scenarios and that's what you worry about because when those kinds of energies are released suddenly it's like what would be the consequences right so the consequences of this are essentially zero. Because that's less energy content than boiling water. Because of the low density, because of the low density. So if you take water is at about a hundred million to a billion times more dense than this, so even though it's at much lower temperature it's actually still it has more energy content. So for this reason, you know one of the ways that I explain this is that if you imagine a power plant that's like powering Cambridge Massachusetts, like if you were to which you you wouldn't do this directly but if you went like this on it it actually extinguishes the fusion because it gets too cold immediately. Yeah so that's the other one and the other part is that it does not in because it works by staying hot rather than a chain reaction it can't run out of control that's the other part of it so by the way this is what very much distinguishes it from fusion it's not a process that can run away from you because it's it's basically thermally stable. What is thermally stable in here? That means is that you want to run it at the optimization in temperature such that if it deviates away from that temperature the reactivity gets lower and and the reason for this is because it's hard to keep the reactivity going like it's a very hard fire to keep going basically. Also it doesn't it doesn't run away from you it can't run away so how difficult is the control there to keep it at that? It varies from from concept to concept but in general it it's fairly it's fairly easy to do that and the easiest thing it can't it can't physically run away from you because the other part of it is that there is just at any given time there is a very very small amount of fuel available to fuse anyway so this means that that's always intrinsically limited to this so if it even if the power consumption of the device goes up it just kind of burns itself out immediately. Yeah. So you are the just to take a another tangent on a tangent you are the director of MIT's plasma science and fusion center. We'll talk about maybe you can mention some interesting aspects of the history of the center in the broader history of MIT and maybe broader history of science and engineering in the history of human civilization but also just the link on the safety aspect you know. How do you prevent you know some of the amazing reactors that you are designing? How do you prevent from destroying all of human civilization in the process? What's the safety protocols? Fusion is interesting because it's not really directly weaponizable because what what I mean by that is that you have you have to work very hard to make these conditions at which you can get energy gain from from fusion. And this means that the the when we design these devices with respect to application in the energy field is that they you know while while while they will because they're producing large amounts of power and they will have hot things inside of them this means that they have like a level of industrial hazard which is very similar to that you would have like a chemical processing plant or anything like that any kind of energy plant actually has these as well too. But the underlying under underneath it core technology like can't be directly used in an nefarious way because of the power that's being emitted it just basically well if you try to do those things typically it just stops working. So the safety concerns have to do with just regular things that like equipment malfunctioning, melting of equipment like all all this kind of stuff that that has nothing to do with fusion necessarily. I mean usually what we worry about is the viability because in the end we build pretty complex objects to realize these requirements and so what we try really hard to do is like not damage those components which but those are things which are internal to the to the fusion device and and it's this is not something that you would consider about like it would as you say destroy human civilization because that release of energy is just inherently limited because of the fusion process. So it doesn't say that there is zero so you asked about the other feature that it's safe so it is the process itself is intrinsically safe but because it's a complex technology you still have to take into account consideration aspects of the safety so it produces ionizing radiation instantaneously so you have to take care of this which means that you shield it. Think of like your dental X rays or or treatments for cancer and things like this we we always shield ourselves from this so we get the beneficial effects but we minimize the harmful effects of those so there there are all those aspects of it as well too. So we'll return to MIT's plasma science and fusion center but let us linger on the destruction of human civilization which brings us to the topic of nuclear fusion what is that? So the the process that is inside nuclear weapons and current nuclear power plants. So it relies on the same underlying physical principle but it's exactly the opposite of which actually the names imply fusion means bringing things together fusion means splitting things apart. So fusion requires the heaviest instead of the lightest and the most unstable versus the most stable elements so this tends to be uranium or plutonium primarily uranium so take uranium so uranium two thirty five is one of the this is one of the heaviest unstable elements and what happens is that this is and fusion is triggered by the fact that one of these subatomic particles the neutron which has no electric charge basically gets in proximity enough to this and triggers an instability effectively inside of this what is teetering on the border of instability and basically splits it apart. And that's the fission right fissioning and so when that happens because the products that are and and roughly splits in two but it's not even that it's actually more complex it splits into this whole array of lighter elements and nuclei and when that happens there is less rest mass. Uh, uh, laugh than the than the original one, so it's actually the same. So it's again, it's rearrangement of the strong nuclear force that's happening, um, but that's the source of the energy. And so in the end, it's like so this is a famous graph that we show everybody is is basically it turns out every element that exists in the periodic table, all the things that make up everything have have a remember you asked a good question, it was like so should we think of mass as being the same as stored energy, yes, so you can make a plot that basically shows the relative amount of stored energy in all of the elements that are stable and make up basically the world, okay in the universe, and it turns out that this one has a maximum amount of of stability or storage at iron, so it's kind of in the middle of the periodic table because this goes from you know this it's roughly that, and so this what that means is that if if you take something heavier than iron like uranium which is which is more than twice as heavy that and you split apart if somehow just magically you can split apart its constituents and you get something that's lighter that will because it moves to a more stable energy state it releases kinetic energy that's the energy that we use kinetic energy meaning the movement of things so it's actually an energy you can do something with and fusion sits on the other side of that because it's also moving towards iron but it has to do it through fusion together so this leads to some pretty profound differences as I said they have some underlying physics or science proximity

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