第 338 期·中文精讀

查馬斯·帕裡哈皮蒂亞:金錢、成功、創業、能源、撲克與幸福

Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness

投資人談創業與財富的積累邏輯,以及能源格局、撲克決策與幸福感的來源。

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中文精讀由 AI 基於原始訪談改寫,非官方翻譯,可能存在偏差或錯誤;表述以原音訊與官方文稿為準。說明

一個十歲出頭的男孩,被父親趕出家門,去樓下的樹上折一根樹枝回來。因為接下來要落在他身上的東西,就是這根樹枝。

他在樹下要完成一套計算:這根枝條有多粗,韌性如何,打到什麼程度會斷,父親此刻的怒氣處在哪個刻度上。折得太細,會被打回重摺;折得太粗,後果更糟。還有那條皮帶,皮帶扣有一面是凸出來的,如果那一面朝外,落在身上會特別疼。所以他必須記住,哪一面朝裡。

一個孩子在那樣的時刻掌握的技能,是如何精確校準暴力的強度。

這是查馬斯·帕裡哈皮蒂亞(Chamath Palihapitiya)在 Lex Fridman 播客第 338 期裡講的第一件事。他現在是 Social Capital 的創始人兼 CEO,Facebook 早期的核心高管之一,All In 播客的四位主播之一,身家以十億美元計。他談起這些往事時的語氣,像是在覆盤一個已經結束的專案。

那套為暴力校準的作業系統,至今還在後臺執行

他先糾正了提問方式。當被問到童年裡哪些時刻最艱難,他說這個問題他沒辦法直接回答,因為在一個由肢體暴力和心理暴力定義的家庭裡,人的狀態是持續性的高度警覺。在這種底色上,反而是那些安全、被善待的瞬間被刻得格外深。

“你會變成時時刻刻緊繃著的人。”他舉了幾百個小例子中的一個:走回家門口,推開門,整個人只有一個目標,就是儘快離開這棟房子。

你走進那棟房子,腦子裡只有一件事:怎麼才能離開這棟房子。(查馬斯·帕裡哈皮蒂亞)

這套系統一旦裝上,就很難解除安裝。Lex 問他,那種高度警覺今天還在嗎,好的一面和壞的一面分別是什麼。

查馬斯的回答繞到了更底層的地方。一個孩子在那種環境裡學到的最核心的東西,是一句判決:你沒有價值。他的推演很直接,如果換成世界上任何一個孩子,沒有人應該經歷這些,那麼當事情發生在你身上,你只能用“我大概不值得被好好對待”來解釋它。

這個結論一旦在童年被寫入,成年後所有的行為模式都是它的補丁。

他記憶裡最亮的兩幀畫面,一個漢堡和一塊打折的芝士蛋糕

五年級還是六年級,他記不清了,他在自己學校的幼兒園做志願者,幫忙收拾東西。學年結束時,那位老師帶上他和另外兩個孩子,去了 Dairy Queen。

他說那是有生以來第一次進餐廳,家裡根本沒有這個預算。漢堡、薯條、可樂、一杯暴風雪冰淇淋。他坐在那裡想:這是什麼?

“我感覺自己非常特別。”他說這話時的重點是後半句:這些東西,絕大多數人都是理所當然的。週末了,或者我今天很忙,帶孩子去吃個快餐,太正常了。

第二個畫面更具體。家裡預算極緊,沒有車,他很小就跟著媽媽去採購,學會了找優惠券、挑特價。他們住的地方有一家大型連鎖超市 Loblaws,每年年底會把芝士蛋糕從七塊九毛九降到四塊九毛九。父母一年買一次,那幾年大概買過六七次。

他和兩個姐姐坐在電視機前看新年前夜的慶祝節目,把這塊蛋糕切成五份。他說那感覺像擁有了全世界。

幸福的絕對值,跟東西的價格關係不大,跟它離你的日常有多遠關係極大。一塊四塊九毛九的蛋糕能成為一個人四十多年後的核心記憶,是因為它出現在一個幾乎沒有任何餘量的生活裡。

這兩個畫面還有一層共同點:它們都由別人的善意構成。一個幼兒園老師,一對在極度拮据裡仍然記得給孩子買一次蛋糕的父母。他自己總結那段日子:你活在一個高度警覺的迴圈裡,中間被一些極其具體、極其生理性的善意時刻打斷。

前三十五年,他把那些記憶關進了隔間

Lex 追問他後來是怎麼放下對父母的責怪的。

查馬斯說那是一個很長的過程。前三十五年,他把所有相關記憶隔間化、迴避掉,然後轉向外部尋找認可。進好大學,找好工作,賺很多錢,用開什麼車、穿什麼衣服這類表面的方式向世界證明自己值得被在意,試圖填上那個很深的洞。

洞一直沒被填上。

我這輩子前三十五年,把那些記憶全部隔間化、全部迴避掉,然後拼命去外面找認可。(查馬斯)

轉折發生在半年之內。他失去了最好的朋友,也失去了父親。他說那感覺像堤壩崩了,因為隔間化之所以能運轉,靠的是那個提醒你為什麼要隔間化的人還在。提醒物消失了,機制也就失效了,他被迫進入一段徹底失序的時期。

然後他做了一件很反人性的事:給父親做善意重構(steelmanning)。從父親的角度,把他經歷過的一切重新走一遍,直到能在裡面找到同情和理解的落腳點。

做完父親,他把焦點轉向母親。他意識到母親並不是純粹的受害者,她當時身心健全,事情發生時她就在那個房間裡。於是同樣的一套流程,又對她做了一遍。

我從來沒有為他們做的事找過理由,但我確實原諒了他們做的事。(查馬斯)

他給出的理由是:他們盡了力。最重要的那件事他們做到了,移民,放棄一切,留在加拿大,兩個人一起扒著地面把錢湊出來,讓他和兩個姐姐有一次機會。

父親從來沒為他的成功鼓過掌,這比打罵更讓他困惑

三十五六歲,按任何標準他都算相當成功了。他發現父親對這些並不在意。頭銜、錢、媒體報道,一概不在意。

父親在意的是另一套東西:他的品格,他對家人好不好,他有沒有準備好在這個男人不在之後接管這個家族。

這件事讓他很不舒服。他說自己以為跑到了終點線,應該有一塊獎牌。他對著麥克風講了一句很輕的話:父親從來沒有對他說過“我愛你”。他不知道這算不算正常,反正那就是他的正常。他一直在等一顆金色的小星星,那顆星始終沒有出現。

後來他想通了。父親用自己的方式在道歉,比如握住他的手,十指交扣。他覺得那是一種非常親密、非常笨拙的和解方式。這段關係最終被修復了,雖然是在父親去世之後。

Lex 在這裡插了一句很有分量的話:如果他們倆都有看不見的裂口,可能在傷害別人而自己不知道呢?

查馬斯的回答不留餘地。在那種環境里長大的人,進入成年之後,會把童年那套失序原封不動地注入職場關係和私人關係,直到撞上某種谷底才開始修復。中間的過程是不斷升級的應對機制,最終傷害的往往不是自己,是身邊的人。

一百件擺在桌上的東西,他試到過第兩百件

話題轉到錢。

他用了一個很清晰的比喻。假設桌上擺著一百樣東西,規則是:幸福在其中某幾樣裡。現實世界的運作方式是,這些體驗被一道道天鵝絨圍欄隔開,價格越高,看起來幸福越多。

住公寓的人羨慕住獨棟的,住獨棟的羨慕住更大的,住更大的羨慕有私人島嶼的。開車的羨慕坐飛機的,坐飛機的羨慕坐商務艙的,商務艙羨慕頭等艙,頭等艙羨慕私人飛機。

大多數人只走到前五六樣,然後就自然而然地認定,第七到第一百樣才是幸福真正所在的地方。

“我試過一百,又往後試了兩百。”他說,幸福不在那裡。

更多、更好,從來都不是答案。(查馬斯)

他引用過一份研究,說不上是否確切,大意是金錢與幸福的相關性在五千萬美元附近見頂。研究給出的解釋是:到這個量級,你可以有房子,有各種生活上的舒適,家人得到妥善照顧,然後你被迫開始思考一個更麻煩的問題:你到底想要什麼。

錢買不到幸福,但它買來一層緩衝,讓你能把“幸福是什麼”這個問題放大到聽得見。

你在一場只有你一個玩家的遊戲裡。其他所有人都是闖入者。設計玩法是你的責任。(查馬斯)

他說很多人沒有意識到這一點。如果意識到了,人生裡的很多決定會完全不同。他自己也經常退回到老路上去:到處問別人,我要怎麼做你才會更喜歡我,我要怎麼在你眼裡更受歡迎。他說這條路是死衚衕,一次都沒成功過。

錢是一臺放大器,也是一張出獄證明

Lex 問錢的負面作用,比如信任變得稀缺。

查馬斯給出的答案更狠。錢最糟糕的地方,是它把你人格的三百六十度完整放大。社會一直在暗示,錢多的人就是更好的人,比錢少的人事實上更有價值,這也是個謊言。但當這種注意力湧過來,人很容易把自己活成一個漫畫像。

他緊接著把話說反了。他在矽谷看到的規律是:一個人拿到大筆錢之後,往往會變成他本來就該成為的那個人。善良的人更善良,好奇的人更專注,混蛋更混蛋,吝嗇的人更吝嗇。面具還在,但社會遞給你一張“出獄證明”,外界的期待突然消失了,你開始按最舒服的方式行事。

於是你看到的是一個人的出廠設定。

這件事的實用價值在於:它讓人可以極快地分類。誰值得你把時間投進去,誰是這場遊戲裡的負項。

成功本身正在變成那個替罪羊

Lex 問了一個更尖銳的問題:錢會不會讓人失去共情能力,既在人的層面受限,也在作為文明分析者的層面受限。

查馬斯承認這對很多人成立,因為錢提供了一種很方便的抽象,讓人可以不去在意。

他接著引入了勒內·基拉爾(René Girard)的模仿慾望理論。簡化版是:所有人都在爭奪被社會認定為稀缺而珍貴的資源,推特粉絲、金錢、聲望、名氣,全都在這個競爭結構裡。基拉爾認為,要跳出這個迴圈,唯一的出口是找一隻替罪羊。

他覺得當下正處在這個迴圈裡。僅僅因為一個人成功,就足以讓他成為那隻替罪羊,用來釋放整個世界的張力。他說這個思路有點偏,因為它解決不了根本問題。

這裡有一層自我指涉的意味:一個億萬富翁在解釋為什麼人們想找億萬富翁當替罪羊,同時也知道自己可能需要被當作替罪羊。他沒有迴避這一點,只是把話說完:如果你把自己活成一個漫畫像,還主動喂進這個結構裡,那你什麼也沒推動。

“獨裁者”這個外號,是牌桌上掙來的

他的外號叫獨裁者。來源是撲克。

他們的家庭牌局是個混亂的地方,大 ego 雲集,旁邊永遠站著一圈圍觀的人(rail birding)。總要有人把衛生和規則立起來。他說自己非常在意牌局的公正性,需要一個能開口說“夠了”的人。於是他開了口,別人回他:行了你別獨裁了。外號就這麼來了。

這段插曲跟前面關於錢的討論接得很緊。規則、公正、讓一場混亂的遊戲還能繼續下去,這些是他在牌桌上主動承擔的成本。承擔成本的人往往不討人喜歡。

為什麼 Hellmuth 是計算機的解藥

Lex 問誰是史上最偉大的撲克選手,查馬斯搶答:Phil Hellmuth。他的論證值得完整聽一遍。

單挑(heads up)是一對一,是計算機能給出最大優勢的位置,因為這是最容易被博弈論最優(GTO)求解的局面。可一旦加入第三個人,計算機推薦的價值會斷崖式下跌。

Hellmuth 打了一連串單挑賽,對手基本是排名前二十里的十個人,他贏下了其中九個。查馬斯的推論是:他的對手全部是按 AI 的方式訓練出來的,而他能贏下九個,說明他在打一套跟 GTO 正交的牌,在 GTO 之上疊了一層人類判斷。有些位置按規則應該做 X,他偏做 Y。

他拿國際象棋的 Magnus Carlsen 做類比。Carlsen 有時會走很怪的路子,故意犧牲局面,在某些位置上過度施壓,象對馬的取捨繞得人頭暈。對手被拽出了自己的節奏。有場比賽下到第六步,對手已經找不到任何 GTO 走法,因為棋盤上的局面壓根不在規則書裡。有人開玩笑說,他大概是在俄羅斯某個酒吧裡看過一局 1954 年的棋,背下來了。

然後他補了一句:還有一個人更強。Daniel Negreanu 也這麼說過,他也認同。Phil Ivey,最全面、最冷血、最嗜血的那頭動物。他說 Ivey 能看進你的靈魂,讓你想喊一句:天哪,別再看我了。

兩個人交過手,他的原話是:他把牌局碾平了。

錯誤減去錯誤,是撲克裡唯一的公式,也是人生裡唯一的公式

這一段是整期節目裡最值得反覆讀的部分。Lex 問,被碾壓在牌桌上到底是什麼感覺。

查馬斯說這個問題很好,因為撲克可以當作一個微型模型,用來解釋別的系統:經營公司,做投資。

先看撲克裡什麼叫成功。成功就是正期望值。具體拆開:你和我對局,你會犯一堆錯,也會打出一堆絕對正確的牌;我也會犯一些錯,也會打出一堆正確的牌。你的錯誤減去我的錯誤,就是優勢。就這麼簡單。我犯的錯比你少,我就贏錢。

換成經營公司。你有一支團隊,一份人力資本,有能力在世界上創造東西。但你在把這份資本變成產品的過程中一定會犯錯:產品不完全對市場,定價錯了,用的人超過實際需要,毛利結構因此變形。與此同時,你的客戶面前擺著所有替代方案,那些替代方案也在犯錯。他們犯的錯減去你犯的錯,就是 Google、Facebook、Apple 的期望值。

換成投資。你每買入一樣東西,對面一定有個人在賣。他是不是犯了錯,當時並不知道。他的錯誤減去你的錯誤,就是長期賺大錢的來源。有人在四十美元把 Google 賣給了你,你買了並且一直拿著。他犯了個巨大的錯,你沒犯什麼錯,兩者之差就是你賺到的錢。

那麼關鍵問題來了:你能對別人的錯誤做什麼?答案是幾乎什麼都不能。那是別人的遊戲。你可以試著影響他,試著攪亂他,理論上甚至可以派人去他公司裡搞破壞,但那些都是邊角料。

人生成敗,歸根到底取決於你怎麼控制自己的錯誤。

接下來的推論開始反直覺。控制錯誤的唯一方式,是大量地犯錯。你必須冒險。想把錯誤數量壓下來,就得提高犯錯的頻率,縮短犯錯到修正之間的週期。

他舉了找物件的例子。你想要一段深度連線的關係,難道靠不出門約會來實現嗎?你得去見人,得把自己開啟,得真誠,得允許自己有可能受傷。如果你被傷了,那是對方的錯誤。如果你不真誠,那是你的錯誤。後者是你能控制的那一半。

他說生活裡幾乎沒有什麼是不能拆成這個結構的。

而社會教給你的是:別犯錯,我們會評判你,會看不起你。真正做出東西的人反過來理解了這件事:把你送到成功那裡的,是犯錯的迴圈速度。犯得越多,錯誤率越低,因為你觀察它們,找到源頭,判斷它是心理層面的還是認知層面的,然後修掉它。

Lex 追問了一句關鍵的話:所以你口中的“錯誤”,其實一直是在跟一條最優路徑做比較,那個柏拉圖式的 GTO 存在嗎?

查馬斯的回答很誠實。他說“錯誤”是個糟糕的替代詞,但他沒有更好的詞。他用這個詞,是因為這是大多數人能聽懂的詞。它真正的名字是學習。

Lex 接了一句:就像神經網路裡的損失函式。

這一點值得展開。用“錯誤”這個詞有個副作用,它讓人變得保守、迴避風險。換成“儘可能多地積累成功”,人反而會去承擔風險。同一條曲線,兩個詞,兩種行為。

錯誤之所以嚇人,是因為社會喜歡一套非常簡化的邊界:誰在贏,誰在輸。它獎勵那些做傳統選擇並且成功的人。更腐蝕人的地方在於,大多數人根本沒有機會真正去犯一個所謂的錯誤然後失敗,因為賽道在起點就被篩掉了。

常春藤沒有對照組

他拿名校舉了個例子。社會獎勵你去常春藤,用一套在他看來並不正確的方式,懲罰你沒去常春藤。名校自帶一層身份,也自帶一種對智力和能力的推定。

問題在於這套系統沒有反事實。你不會看到同一個人既上 MIT 又上俄亥俄州立,然後兩個版本擺在一起對比,發現其實沒差別。缺了對照組,它就不斷強化一個幻覺:這裡沒有求真機制,這件事無法被驗證為完整。它只需要告訴你:你必須進來,進不來你這輩子就完了,你犯了一個巨大的錯誤。

所以人只能自己想別的辦法,去拆掉這套預設。

沒有朋友,是他運氣最好的一件事

查馬斯說自己高中沒什麼朋友,只有幾個熟人。原因跟前面那套高度警覺直接相關:他為自己的生活感到羞恥,不願意把任何人帶進那個世界,也沒法相信自己會被接納。

這件事有個意外的紅利。他沒有一個參照系告訴他期待應該長什麼樣,所以他的期待不由周圍的人塑造。他逃進自己的想象裡去定義目標。

他住在加拿大安大略省的渥太華,正好趕上電信業的爆發期。NorTel、Newbridge Networks、Mitel、Bell Northern Research,全都是在渥太華郊區建起來的。他讀《福布斯》《財富》,看那份富豪榜,然後對自己說,我要成為他們那樣的人。他說,也許那些人並不真的是他想成為的人,但那是一條救生索,讓他的心智相對完整,因為野心有了方向。

如果他當時有一個好朋友,去過對方家裡,見過一個正常運轉的家庭,他大概會把那種生活當成目標。他沒有見過中產階級生活長什麼樣,所以也沒有嚮往過它。

他說父母最好的一年,兩個人加起來掙了 32,000 加元。五口之家,那是個很複雜的工程,多數年份大概只有兩萬多。他從十四歲開始打工。

Lex 問,最糟糕的工作是什麼。他說是最糟糕的,也是最好的。十四歲在漢堡王,做打烊班,從晚上六點幹到凌晨兩點。渥太華緊鄰魁北克,安大略省的法定飲酒年齡是十九歲,魁北克是十八歲。他說到這裡,意思已經很清楚了。錄音在這裡斷了,但那個畫面不需要補完:凌晨兩點,一個十四歲的孩子在快餐店後廚,服務一群從省界另一邊過來的、剛剛合法喝酒的年輕人。

把這期節目拆成可以用的東西

查馬斯講的東西有一個共同結構:他很少談結果,一直在談機制。樹枝的粗細是機制,外部認可是機制,錯誤率是機制,牌桌上的規則是機制。

如果要從裡面帶走幾樣東西,可以是這樣幾條:

  • 把“我犯了個錯”換一種說法,叫“我拿到了一個資料點”。同一條學習曲線,換詞能改變你敢不敢下場。真正該最佳化的指標是犯錯的迴圈速度,而非錯誤總數。
  • 定期做一次記賬:這段時間裡,哪些損失是我的錯誤造成的,哪些是別人的錯誤造成的。對自己那一欄下狠手,對別人那一欄直接放手,那是別人的遊戲,你改不動。
  • 找一個你討厭或者不理解的人,把他的處境從頭到尾按他的邏輯推一遍,直到你能在裡面找到同情的落腳點。這不叫為他開脫,這叫把這件事從你的後臺程序裡清出去。
  • 把生活裡那些被別人用天鵝絨圍欄隔開的東西列出來,問一句:我真的想要那個,還是我只是被排在它前面的那五六樣東西擋住了視線。
  • 錢到手之後,觀察自己變成了什麼樣。它是一臺放大器,不會改造你,只會把原本就有的東西放大。想提前知道自己會變成誰,看看你現在在沒人管的時候怎麼做事就夠了。
  • 如果你在一個混亂的局裡,做那個願意開口立規矩的人。代價是被叫獨裁者,收益是這場遊戲還能繼續玩下去。

最後一條留給那句最不像億萬富翁說的話。他這輩子一直在等一顆金色小星星,等一個從沒出現的獎章。星星最後也沒來,來的是父親十指交扣的那隻手。他花了三十五年才認出那是什麼。

文稿由本站用語音識別模型(基於官方釋出音訊)機器轉寫,可能有識別錯誤,人名與數字請以音訊為準。
Lex Fridman Podcast #338 – Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness Machine transcription by Qwen3-ASR 0.6B (MLX, local, Apache-2.0). May contain recognition errors. The following is a conversation with Chamath Palapatiya, a venture capitalist and engineer, founder and CEO of Social Capital, previously an early senior executive at Facebook, and is the co-host of the All In podcast, a podcast that I highly recommend for the wisdom and the camaraderie of the four co-hosts, also known as Besties. And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast. We got Bambi for HR services, Inside Tracker for biometrics, Netsuite for business management software, Simply Safe for home security and Indeed for hiring. Choose wisely, my friends. And now on to the full ad reads. As always, no ads in the middle. I try to make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff, maybe you will too. This show is brought to you by a new sponsor called Bambi, an outsourced and automated human resources HR solution for businesses. I think in the video on their website it says that many businesses would need to hire an HR person and that's like seventy k a year plus. So what they're offering is super cost effective because it's just ninety nine bucks per month, and they take care of the HR compliance and all the complexities involved with that. It's important to hire people that can take care of human resources. HR is one of those things that when done poorly it can really hurt and when done well it just makes everything work beautifully. And so you should use the best tools for the job and a really cost effective one is Bambi. You can schedule your free conversation today. Go to bambi dot com and type Lex under podcast when you sign up. It's spelled B A M B E E. This show is also brought to you by Inside Tracker, a service I use to track biological data. It's kind of interesting to think of the human body as just the source of signals. You got a hierarchy of living organisms, millions of them, billions of them, depending how you define the atomic organisms. That make up the human body, and so all of them are sending signals—tiny signals, big signals—and all of those that conglomerate that orchestra sends just a huge amount of data, which is used by the brain and the nervous system and the immune system and all the different systems that make up the anatomy and the physiology of the body to sort of coordinate everything. And for us to plug in and collect some of that data in order to make lifestyle and health recommendations, I think that's the future. Recommendation should be done based primarily on your body, grounded of course in the wisdom that science provides for the population. Anyway, Inside Tracker is a step into that direction. It's a preview of the future. Get special savings for a limited time when you go to insidetracker dot com slash lex. That's insidetracker dot com slash lex. This show is also brought to you by Netsuite, an all in one cloud business management system that manage financials, inventory, e commerce, all the different business related details. The ad reads today, and it's funny because it's on the Chamath episode. And Chamath is one of the greatest business leaders and minds and investors and VCs and technologists engineers and just intellectuals honestly. That I've ever listened to and gotten a chance to interact with is really a brilliant guy. Anyway, just first principles thinker, bold thinker. You know even when he's wrong, he'll he'll he'll push forward and then realize through first principles thinking that he's wrong and he'll admit it. I mean just really honest brilliant person. Anyway, it's funny that on this episode we got all kinds of business related advertisers and I think that makes perfect sense and that's great because running a business is not just about great leadership or about hiring a great team. All those are obviously exceptionally important, but it's also running and taking care of all the glue that ties everything together. So that means human resources, but that also means managing the inventory, the e commerce, managing all the financial stuff, automating everything. That you can automate, making it easy, efficient, using the best tools for the job. That's where Netsuite fits in. Go to netsuite dot com slash lex to access their one of a kind financing program. This show is also brought to you by Simply Safe, a home security company designed to be simple and effective. It took me no time. I don't remember how long it was, maybe thirty minutes, maybe less. I don't remember, but they say it takes you thirty minutes to set up. You can customize the system for your needs. I have it set up in my place. I love it. It's the first layer physical security to my place. I have many layers of physical and cyber digital emotional psychological security. Although probably the biggest vulnerabilities to me. Is psychological security because I really try to wear my heart on my sleeve and really take the world in the opinion of the world. The pain of the world, the struggle of the world, and not in the way where I want the approval of the world. I really don't, but I want to empathize with the experience of others and understand it. And when you do that, what you find is your mind can be hacked. This complicated psychological landscape to operate in is so tricky, but of course that's way more complicated than physical security. Physical security should be taken care of. That's the smart thing to do. Should use a simple system for that and effective system. Easy to set up, easy to use. That's what Simply Safe is. Go to simplysafe dot com slash lex and get fifty percent off any new system. This show is also brought to you by Indeed, a hiring website. Like I told you, Chamath episode we're talking all about business. I I don't know maybe it's just to me, but I think the most important thing for successful business is building a great team. That's also the most important thing for your own personal happiness and growth and psychological flourishing. Anyway, the process of hiring the early stage of selecting a great pool of candidates quickly then from those candidates selecting it down to to a good fit, good resume, good skill, good personality, diversity all those elements that make up a great team. There is a stepwise process that's really painful that's really difficult to turn into a science. I really do think it's part art part science, just like conversation. And whatever can be made easier, more efficient, more organized, you should do. Indeed does that? It's a great tool. They have an instant match tool that does that first step of finding the the set of candidates that fit the job description. They do that immediately. Anyway, they have a special offer only available for a limited time. Check out at indeed dot com slash lex terms and conditions apply. This is the Lex Freedom podcast to support it. Please check out our sponsors in the description and now dear friends here is Chamath Palapatiya. You grew up in a dysfunctional household on welfare. You've talked about this before. What were for you personally psychologically some difficult moments in your childhood? I'll answer that question in a slightly different way, which is that I think when you grow up in a household that's defined by physical abuse and psychological abuse. You are hyper vigilant all the time, and so it's actually easier for me to point to moments where I was happy or I felt compassion or I felt safe. Otherwise, every moment I'll give you a couple of examples like. You know I was thinking about this a while ago. There was a tree outside of my apartment where we lived when I was growing up, and my father would sometimes would make me go outside to take the tree branch that he would hit me with. And so you can imagine if you are a ten eleven year old kid and you have to deal with that, what do you do? Well, a hyper vigilant child learns how to basically estimate the strength of these branches. Right, how far can he go before it breaks? You have to estimate his anger and estimate the effect of strength of you know branches and bring back something because you know I remember these moments where if it was. He would look at it and then he would make me go out again and get it right, get a different one, or you know there was a certain belt that he wore that had this kind of belt buckle that stuck out. And you just wanted to make sure if that if that was the thing that you were going to get hit by, that it wasn't the buckle facing out because that really hurt. And so you became hyper aware of which part of the buckle was facing out versus facing in in those moments. And there are like hundreds of these little examples, which essentially I would I would say the through line is that you are just so on edge. Right, and you walk into this house and you are just basically trying to get to the point where you leave the house. Um, and so in that microcosm of growing up, any moment that's not like that is seared in my memory in a way that I just can't. Um, describe to a person. I'll give you an example. I volunteered when I was in grade five or six. I can't remember which it was in the kindergarten of my school, and I would just go and the teacher would you know ask you to clean things up. And at the end of that grade five year, she took me and two other kids to Dairy Queen. And I'd never been I've never I'd never gone to a restaurant literally because we just we didn't have the money. And I remember the first time I tasted this you know this Dairy Queen meal. It was like a hamburger, fries, a Coke, and a a blizzard, and I was like, "What is this?" And I felt. So special, you know because you are getting something that most people would take for granted. Oh, it's a Sunday or it's a you know or I am really busy. Let me go take my kid to to fast food. I think that you know until I left high school. I think and this is not just specific to me but a lot of other people it's you are in this hyper vigilant loop punctuated with these incredibly visceral moments of compassion by other people. You know a different example. Um, we had such a strict budget and we didn't have a car, and so you know I was responsible with my mom to always go shopping. And so I learned very early on how to you know look for coupons, how to buy things that were on sale or special. And we had a very basic diet because you have to budget this thing really precisely. But the end of every year where I lived, there was a large grocery chain called La Blazs, and La Blazs would discount. A cheesecake from seven ninety nine to four ninety nine, and my parents would buy that once a year, and we probably did that six or seven times. And you can't imagine how special we felt myself, my two sisters. We would sit there, we would watch the you know the New Year's Eve celebration on TV. We would cut this cheesecake into you know five pieces. It felt like everything. Um, so that's sort of how you know my my existence when I was at that age is for better or for worse that's how I remember it. The hyper vigilant loop is that still with you today. What are the echoes of that that's still with you today—the good and the bad. If you put yourself in the mind of a young child, the thing that that does to you is at a very core basic level it says you are worthless. Right, because if you can step outside of that and you think about any child in the world, they don't deserve to go through that. And at some point, by the way, I should tell you like I don't blame my parents anymore. It was a process to get there, but I feel like they did the best they could. And they suffered their own issues and enormous pressures and stresses, and so you know I've really for the most part forgiven them. How did you sorry to interrupt? Let go of that blame. That was a really long process where, for I would say the first thirty five years of my life, I compartmentalized and I avoided all of those memories. And I sought external validation. Right, going back to this self worth idea, if you are taught as a child that you are worthless because why would somebody do these things to you? It's not because you are worth something. You think to yourself very viscerally you are worth nothing, and so then you go out and you seek external validation. Maybe you try to go and get into a great college, you try to get a good job, you try to make a lot of money, you try to you know demonstrate in superficial ways with the car you drive or the clothes you wear. That you deserve people to care about you to try to make up for that really deep hole, but at some point it doesn't get filled in. And so you have a choice, and so for me what happened was in in the course of a six month period I lost my best friend and I lost my father. And it was really like the dam broke loose because I the compartmentalization stopped working because the reminder. Of why I was compartmentalizing was gone, and so I had to go through this period of disharmony. To really understand and steal man his perspective, and can you imagine trying to do that to go through all of the things where you have to now look at it from his perspective and find compassion and empathy. For what he went through, and then I shift you know the focus to my mom and I said, well you were not the victim actually you were somewhat complicit as well because you were of sound mind and body and you were in the room when it happened. So then I had to go through that process with her and steal man her perspective. And at the end of it, I never justified what they did, but I've been able to forgive what they did. Um, I think they did the best they could, and at the end of the day, they did the most important thing which is they gave me and my sisters a shot by emigrating by giving up everything by staying in Canada. And doing whatever it took between the two of them. To sort of claw and scrape together enough money to live so that my sisters and I could have a shot, and I am very thankful for them. Could they have done better? Obviously, but I am okay with what has taken place. But it's it's been a long process of of that steel maning so that you can develop some empathy and compassion and forgive. Do you think if you talk to your dad shortly after he died and you went through that process or today you'll be able to have the same strength. To forgive him, I think it would be a very complicated journey. I think I have learned to be incredibly open about what has happened and all of the mistakes I've made. I think it's it would require him to be pretty radically honest about confirming. What I think he went through because otherwise it just wouldn't work. Otherwise I would say let's keep things where they are, which is I did the work. You know with with people that have helped me obviously, but you know it's better for him to just you know kind of hopefully he's looking from some place and he's thinking. It was worth it. I think he deserves to think that all of this because you know I think the immigrant challenge or not even the immigrant challenge the lower middle class challenge anybody who really wants better for their kids and doesn't have a good toolkit to give it to them. Some of them just they choke up on the bat. They just get so agitated about this idea that all this sacrifice will not be worth it. That it spills out in really unproductive ways, and I would put him in that category. And their self evaluation introspection they have tunnel vision so they're not able to often see the damage that did. I mean I I know like yourself a few successful people that had very difficult relationships. With their dad, and you take the perspective of the dad, they're completely in denial about any of it. So if you actually have a conversation, there would not be a deep honesty there. And that I think that's maybe in part the way of life. Yeah and you know I remember pretty distinctly after I left and in this you know in my middle thirties where. You know by all measure I had roughly become reasonably successful, and my dad didn't particularly care about that, which was so odd because I had to confront the fact that you know. Whether it was a title or money or press clippings, he never really cared. He moved on to a different set of goals, which was more about my character and you know being a good person to my family and really preparing me to lead our family when he wasn't there. And that bothered me because I thought I thought I got to the finish line and I thought there was going to be a medal, you know meaning like I can tell you Lex, you know he never told me that he loved me. I am not sure if that's normal or not. It was my normality, and I thought there is going to be something some gold star which never appeared. And so that's like a hard thing to kind of confront because you are like well now what is this what is this all about? Um, was this all just kind of a a ruse? But then I realized well hold on a second there were these moments where in his way again putting yourself in his shoes. I think he was trying to say he was sorry. He would hold my hand, you know, and he would interlock the fingers, which I felt that's a really intimate way of holding somebody's hand. I think. Um, so I remember those things so. You know these are the things that are just etched in at least in my mind and. At the end of it, you know I think I've done a decent job in repairing my relationship with him, even though you know it was posthumous. It does make me wonder in which way you and I we might be broken and not see it, and might be hurting others and not see it. Well I think that when you grow up in those kinds of environments and they're all different kinds of this kind of dysfunction, but if what you get from that is that you are not worthwhile, you are not you are less than many many other people. When you enter adulthood or you know semi adulthood in your early twenties, you will be in a cycle where you are hurting other people. You may not know it. Hopefully you find somebody who holds you accountable and tells you and loves you enough through that. But you are going to take all of that disharmony in your childhood and you are going to inject that disharmony into. Whether it's your professional relationships or your personal relationships or both, until you get to some form of rock bottom and you start to repair. And I think there's a lot of people that resonate with that because they have each suffered their own things that at some point in their lives have told them that they're less than. And and then they go and cope, and when you cope, eventually those coping mechanisms escalate and at some point it'll be unhealthy either for you but oftentimes it's for the people around you. Well from those humble beginnings you are now a billionaire. How has money changed your life or maybe the landscape of experience in your life? Does it buy happiness? It doesn't buy happiness, but it buys you a level of comfort for you to really amplify what happiness is. I kind of think about it in the following way, let's just say that there's a hundred things on a table, and the table says find happiness here. And there are different prices. The way that the world works is that many of these experiences are cordoned off little bit behind a velvet rope. Where you think that there's more happiness as the prices of things escalate. Right, if you live in an apartment, you admire the person with the house. If you live in a house, you admire the person with the bigger house. That person admires the person with you know an island. Right. Some person drives their car admires a person who flies who admires a person who flies business class who admires a person who flies first. You know to private. There's all of these escalations on this table, and most people get to the first five or six. And so they just naturally assume that items you know seven through a hundred is really where happiness is found. And the just to you know tell you the the finish line I've tried a hundred and back and I've tried two more hundred to it. And happiness isn't there. But it does give you a level of comfort. I read a study, and I don't know if it's true or not, but it said that the absolute sort of like maximal link between money and happiness. Is around fifty million dollars, and there was it was just like a social studies kind of thing that I think one of the Ivy Leagues put out, and underneath it the way that they explained it was because you could have a home you could have all kinds of the creature comforts you could take care of your family, and then you were left to ponder. What it is that you really want? I think the challenge for most people is to realize that this escalating arms race of you know more things will solve your problems. Is not true. More and better is not the solution. It's it's this idea that you are on a very precise journey that's unique to yourself. You are playing a game of which only you are the player. Everybody else is an interloper, and you have a responsibility to design the game play. And I think a lot of people don't realize that because if they did I think they would make a lot of different decisions about how they live their life. And I still do the same thing I mean revert. To basically running around asking other people what will make you like me more, you know what will make me more popular in your eyes and I try to do it and it never works. It is just a complete dead end. Is there negative aspects to money like for example it becoming harder to find people you can trust. I think the most negative aspect is that it amplifies a three hundred and sixty degree view of your personality. Because there are a lot of people and society tells you that more money is actually better you are a better person somehow. And you are factually more worthwhile than some other people that have less money. That's also a lie. But when you're given that kind of attention, it's very easy for you to become a caricature of yourself. That's probably the single worst thing that happens to you. But I say it in the opposite way I think all I've ever seen in Silicon Valley as an example. Is that when somebody gets a hold of a lot of money it tends to cause them to become exactly who they were meant to be. They're either a kind person, they're either a curious person, they're either a jerk, you know they're either cheap and they can use all kinds of masks but now that there's no expectations and society gives you a get out of jail free card. You start to behave the way that's most comfortable to you so you see somebody's innate personality. And that's really interesting thing to observe because then you can very quickly bucket sort. Where do you want to spend time and who is really you know additive to your game play. And who is really a negative detractor to your game play. You're an investor but you're also a kind of philosopher. You analyze the world in all its different perspectives on all in podcasts on Twitter everywhere. Do you worry that money makes puts you out of touch. From being able to truly empathize with the experience of the general population, which in part first of all a human level that could be limiting but also as an analyst. Of human civilization that could be limiting. I think it definitely can for a lot of people because it's just a it's an abstraction for you to stop caring. I also think the other thing is that. You can very quickly especially in today's world become the scapegoat just to use a Girardian like Rene Girard if you look if you think about like mimetic theory in a nutshell. You know we're all competing for these very scarce resources that we are told is worthwhile. And if you view the world through that Girardian lens, what are we really doing? We are all fighting for scarce resources. Whether that's Twitter followers, money, acclaim, notoriety, and we all compete with each other and in that. Competition, you know Girard writes like the only way you escape that loop is by scapegoating something or somebody. And I think we are in that loop right now where just the fact of being successful is a thing that one should scapegoat to end all of this you know tension that we have in the world. I I think that it's a little misguided because I don't think it solves the fundamental problem. Um and we can talk about what the solution to some of these problems are but. That's I think the loop that we're all living and so if you become a caricature and you feed yourself into it. I mean you're not doing anything to to really advance things. Your nickname is the dictator. How did you get the nickname? We're talking about the corrupting nature of money. That came from poker. In a poker game you know when you sit down it's chaos especially like in in our home game. There's a ton of big egos. There's people always watching you know rail birding the game all kinds of interesting folks. And in that somebody needs to establish hygiene and rules. And I really care about the integrity of the game and it would just require somebody to just say okay enough. And so and then people were just like okay stop dictating and that's where that's where that nickname. So who to you speaking of which is the greatest poker player of all time and why is it Phil Hellmuth. Exactly you know Muth probably knew this question was coming. Here's what I'll say I think Hellmuth is the antidote to computers more than any other player playing today. And when you see him in a heads up situation so I think like he's played nine or ten heads up tournaments in a row. And he's played like basically call it ten of the top twenty people so far. And he's beaten all but one of them. When you're playing heads up you know one v one. That is the most GTO understandable spot meaning game theory optimal position that's where computers can give you an enormous edge. The minute you add even a third player the value of computers and the value of their recommendations. Basically falls off a cliff. Okay, so one way to think about it is Hellmuth is forced to play against people that are essentially trained like AI's. And so to be able to beat you know eight out of nine of them. Means that you are playing sort orthogonally to what is considered game theory optimal and you're overlaying human reasoning. The judgment to say well in this spot I should do X but I'm going to do Y it's not dissimilar in chess like what makes you know Magnus Carlson so good. You know sometimes he takes these weird lines he'll sacrifice positions you know he'll overplay certain positions or certain you know. Bishops versus knights in all of these spots that are very confusing. And what it does is it throws people off their game I think he just won a recent online tournament and it's like by move six. There is no GTO move for his opponent to make because it's like out of the rule book maybe he read some game you know I read the quote it was like he probably read some game in some bar in Russia 1954 memorized it. And all of a sudden by six moves in the computer AI is worthless so that's what makes Hellmuth great. The there is one person that I think is superior. And and I think it's what Daniel also said and I would echo that because I played Phil as well but Phil Ivy is. The most well rounded cold blooded blood thirsty animal. He is he's just and he he sees into your soul Lex in a way where you're just like oh my god stop looking at me. Have you ever played him? Yeah yeah we played we played and you know he crushes the games crushes the games. So what what does feeling crushed mean and feel like in poker is it like that you just can't read at all you're being constantly pressured you feel off balance you try to bluff and the person reads you perfectly that kind of. So it's it's a this is really really excellent question because I think this has parallels to a bunch of other things. Okay let's just use poker as a microcosm to explain a bunch of other systems or games. Maybe it's running a company or investing. Okay so let's use those three examples but we use poker to explain it. What does success look like? Well success looks like you have positive expected value. Right in poker the simple way to summarize that is your opponent. Let's just say you and I are playing are going to make a bunch of mistakes. There's a bunch of it that's going to be absolutely perfect. And then there's a few spots where you make mistakes. And then there's a bunch of places in the poker game where I play perfectly. And I make a few mistakes. Basically your mistakes minus my mistakes is the edge right. That's that's period that's how poker works. If I make fewer mistakes than you make I will make money and I will win that is the objective of the game. Translate that into business. You're running a company, you have a team of employees, you have a pool of human capital that's capable of being productive in the world and creating something. But you are going to make mistakes in making that. Maybe it doesn't completely fit the market. Maybe it's mispriced. Maybe it actually doesn't require all of the people that you need so the margins are wrong. And then there's the competitive set of all the other alternatives that customer has. Their mistakes minus your mistakes is the expected value of Google Facebook Apple etc. Okay now take investing. Every time you buy something somebody else on the other side is selling it to you. Is that their mistake? We don't know yet. But their mistakes minus your mistakes. Is how you make a lot of money over long periods of time as an investor. Somebody sold you Google at forty dollars a share you bought it and you kept it huge mistake on their part minimum mistakes on your part. The difference of that is the money that you made. So life can be summarized in many ways in that way so the question is. What can you do about other people's mistakes and the answer is nothing. That is somebody else's game you can try to influence them you could try to subvert them maybe you plan to spy inside of that other person's company to sabotage them I guess there are things at the edges that you can do. But my firm belief is that life success really boils down to how do you control. Your mistakes now this is a bit counterintuitive. The way you control your mistakes is by making a lot of mistakes. So taking risks you have to is somehow you have to you have to minimize the number of mistakes. Let's just say you want to find love. You know you want to find some go on deeply connected with. Are you do you do that by not going out on dates and yes. Sorry sorry. You're the only person that thinks that's the answer. No I'm joking I'm joking. No but you know what I mean like you have to date people you have to open yourself up you have to be authentic and like you put you you give yourself a chance to get hurt. Yes but you're a good person so you know what happens when you get hurt that is actually their mistake. Okay and if you are inauthentic that's your mistake. That's a controllable thing in you you can tell them the truth who you are and say here's my. Pluses and minuses my point is there are very few things in life. That you can't break down I think into that very simple idea. And in terms of your mistakes, society tells you don't make them. Because we will judge you and we will look down on you. And I think the really successful people realize that actually no, it's the cycle time of mistakes that gets you to success. Because your error rate will diminish the more mistakes that you make. You observe them you figure out where it's coming from is it a psychological thing is it a you know cognitive thing and then you fix it. So the implied thing there is that there is in in business and investing in poker and dating in life is that there's this platonic GTO game theory optimal thing out there. And so when you say mistakes you're always comparing to that optimal path you could have taken. I think slightly different I would say mistake is maybe a bad proxy but it's the best proxy I have for learning. But I'm using the language of what society tells you. Sure got it. Society tells you that when you try something and it doesn't work it's a mistake. So I just use that word because it's the word that resonates most with most people. Got it. The real thing that it is is learning. Yeah it's like in neural networks it's lost. Neural network it's lost exactly. Yeah all right so you're using the mistake that it's most the the word that is most understandable especially by the way people experience it I guess most of life is a sequence of mistakes. The problem is when you use the word mistake and you think about mistakes it actually has a. Counterproductive effect of you becoming conservative in just being risk averse. So that if you if you if you flip it and say try to maximize the number of successes somehow that leads you to take more risk. Mistake scares people. I think mistakes scare people because society likes. These very simplified boundaries of who is winning and who is losing. And they want to reward people who make traditional choices. And succeed, but the thing is what's so corrosive about that. Is that they're actually not even being put in a position to actually make a quote unquote mistake and fail. So I'll give you if you look at like getting into an elite school. Right society rewards you for being in the Ivy Leagues. In a way that you know in my opinion incorrectly doesn't reward you for being in a non Ivy League school. There's a certain level of status and presumption of intellect and capability that comes with being there. Um but that system doesn't really have a counter factual because it's not as if you both go to MIT and Ohio State. And then we can see two versions of Lex Friedman so that we can figure out that the jig is up and there was no difference. Right and so instead it reinforces this idea that there is no truth seeking function there is no way to actually make this thing whole. And so it tells you you have to get in here and if you don't your life is over you've made a huge mistake. You know or you failed completely. And so you have to find different unique ways of dismantling this. This is why you know part of what I've realized. Where I got very lucky is I had no friends in high school. I had a few cohort of acquaintances. But part of being so hyper vigilant when I grew up was I was so ashamed of that world that I had to live in. I didn't want to bring anyone into it. I could not see myself that anybody would accept me. But the thing with that is that I had no definition of what expectations should be so they were not guided by the people around me. And so I would escape to define my expectations. It's interesting but you didn't feel like your dad. Didn't put you in a prison of expectation. Or we because like that's if you don't have friends like so the flip side of that you don't have any other signals it's very easy to believe like when you're in a cult that. Well he you know, he was angry, he pushed me, he used me as a mechanism to alleviate his own frustration, and this may sound very crazy but he also believed in me. And so that's what created this weird duality where you were just I was always confused about you could be somebody great he believed that you could be. He did I didn't believe him because I couldn't reconcile than the other half of the day you know those behaviors. But what it allowed me to do was I escaped in my mind and I found these archetypes around me that were saviors to me. So you know I grew up in Ottawa Ontario Canada I grew up right at the point where the telecom boom was happening companies like NorTel and Newbridge Networks and Mytel Bell Northern Research these were all built in in in the suburbs of Ottawa. And so there were these larger than life figures entrepreneurs Terry Matthews Michael Copeland and so I thought I'm going to be like them I would read Forbes magazine I would read Fortune magazine I would look at the rich people on that list and say I would be like them. Not knowing that maybe that's not who you wanted to be, but it was a lifeline and it kept my mind relatively whole. Because I could direct my ambition in a direction. And so why that's so important just circling back to this is I didn't have a group of friends who were like I'm going to go to community college. You know I didn't have a group of friends that said well you know the goal is just to go to university get a simple job and like you know join the public service have a good life. And so because I had no expectations and I was so afraid to venture out of my own house, I never saw what middle class life was like and so I never aspired to it now if I was close to it I probably would have aspired to it because I my parents in their best year made 32,000 Canadian together. And if you're trying to raise a family of five people on 32,000 it's a complicated job, and most of the time they were probably making 20 something thousand and I was working since I was 14 so. I knew that our station in life was not the destination we had to get out, um but because I didn't have an obvious place it's not like I had a best friend whose house I was going to and I saw some normal functional home. If I had had that in this weird way I would have aspired to that. What was the worst job you had to do? The best job, but the worst job was I worked at Burger King when I was 14 years old and I would do the closing shift, and that was from like 6 p m till about two in the morning. And in Ontario where I lived Ottawa borders Quebec in Ontario the drinking age is 19 you can see where I'm going with this the

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