第 171 期·中文精讀

安東尼·蓬皮利亞諾:比特幣

Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin

投資人談比特幣的持有邏輯、宏觀環境與機構入場,以及它作為價值儲存手段的長期前景與潛在風險。

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比特幣持有者有一個奇怪的共識:他們其實不希望比特幣漲價。理由不復雜,如果你認定這個東西未來會比現在值錢得多,那你現在最不想看到的事,就是它漲得太快,讓你來不及多買。

安東尼·蓬皮利亞諾(Anthony Pompliano)把這個邏輯推到了極端。他超過 95% 的淨資產在比特幣裡。而且他已經不用美元來衡量自己的財富了,他把一枚比特幣就當成“一枚比特幣”,腦子裡算的是“這次消費花掉了我多少比特幣”,而不是“這頓飯花了多少美元”。

一個人怎麼會走到這一步?故事要從伊拉克的一條公路說起。

第一次出任務的那個夜晚,訓練接管了身體

2006 年,蓬皮利亞諾 17 歲,高中提前一個學期畢業。他原本計劃去大學打橄欖球,結果沒成,只能在 Chick-fil-A 和 Quiznos 打零工。他自己心裡清楚,這不是他要的人生路徑,但中間這段空窗期總得做點什麼,於是他走進了一家招兵站。

他籤的是預備役。按計劃,先完成基礎訓練,拿完資質,再去上大學,畢業之後也許有機會被派出去。結果大三那年,整支部隊從學校裡被拉走了。

他到伊拉克的時候 20 歲。

老兵們會告訴你,一場戰爭裡最危險的是頭兩三週和最後兩三週。剛到的時候你誰都不認識,地形不熟,不知道當地的習俗,不知道哪些跡象值得警惕。最後兩三週則是另一種危險,因為你覺得自己活下來了,開始盤算回家,於是鬆懈。

他們平安度過了交接期。然後是自己部隊 100% 接手之後的第一個任務。

那天夜裡,他上半身探在悍馬車頂,一顆狙擊子彈從旁邊飛過去。他旁邊那個兵來自賓夕法尼亞鄉下,說了一句:“我也沒捱過槍子兒,但我打了一輩子獵,快他媽趴下。”

同後半夜,車隊前頭一輛車碾上了路邊炸彈。他從來沒經歷過被炸的車隊,但訓練在那一刻接管了身體。所有人同時開始喊“IED”,同時開始找人、找位置、判斷情況。事後他回想,那一刻沒有人真的在“思考”,所有人都在執行被反覆練進肌肉裡的程式。

那次事件裡死了一個美國士兵,頭部中彈。這個人蓬皮利亞諾並不認識,他是臨時配屬過來支援他們單位的。直到事後他才知道對方的名字,才知道對方有家庭,有小孩。

一個 20 歲的年輕人第一次真正意識到:手裡這把槍是真實存在的,它有它存在的理由。

那個 14 歲孩子眼裡的恨意

蓬皮利亞諾說,他記憶裡最深的不是爆炸,是路上的孩子。

他坐在車裡往外看,路邊站著一個 10 歲、12 歲、14 歲的孩子,眼睛裡有恨意。那種恨並不衝著他這個人來,它衝著的是這身制服,這身制服代表的東西。他說,只要你看過一次,你就永遠認得出來。

他後來想明白了這件事。他自己給出的解釋很樸素:如果明天有一支外國軍隊的坦克開上我們國家的街道,不管他們自認為在做多麼正確的事,我們大機率不會覺得舒服,我們會憤怒,我們會反抗。

而在那個具體場景裡,還有一種更殘酷的可能性:也許一年前,另一隊美國士兵從這裡經過,被人開了槍,他們回擊,打死了那個孩子的叔叔。

我們對戰爭的想象是黑白的,是臨床式的。我們要去某個地方,我們是世界上最強的軍隊,我們擅長入侵,我們會碾碎路上的一切。但你真正站在那片土地上,你看到的是這件事的人性部分。

所以他得出了一個結論:他認識的幾乎每一個回國的老兵,都是世界上最堅定的和平主義者。

他引用海軍海豹突擊隊隊員馬庫斯·魯特雷爾(Marcus Luttrell)的一次演講:如果你是政客,你的工作就是當外交官,盡一切可能不要把我們和我們的朋友送到任何地方去,因為一旦你把我們送過去,我們會把地獄一起帶過去。在我們被送出去之前的每一個人,都有責任阻止這件事發生。

戰爭和衝突不是一回事

Lex 問他,人類是不是永遠會有戰爭?

蓬皮利亞諾把兩個詞拆開了。“戰爭”這個詞帶著子彈、炸彈、死亡的味道,非常陰鬱。但“衝突”不一樣,幾十億人擠在同一個星球上,不可能沒有分歧,可能是觀念的分歧,可能是地理的分歧。衝突會永遠存在,問題只是戰爭會以什麼形態出現。

他看到的趨勢是戰爭正在變得越來越“臨床化”。更多無人機,更少地面士兵,更多特種部隊和小規模高專業度團隊,而不是龐大的機械化軍團。再往上,是資訊戰和網路戰。

這裡有一個他特別在意的心理機制:如果一場戰爭不再有死亡,它聽起來就沒那麼可怕了。 “我們要和某個國家開戰,但不會有任何人死”,這句話的威懾力和“我們要派一萬名士兵過去,其中一部分人會死在戰場上,我們會把他們的影片和報道傳回來”完全不在一個量級。

Lex 接著追問了一層:如果網路攻擊就能偷走你所有的資料、偽造你的身份、摧毀你的名譽,這種傷害和被人拿刀捅,哪個更痛苦?

蓬皮利亞諾的回答繞到了另一個維度:一個是有限的,痛苦會結束;一個是長期的、持續的,幾乎是一種折磨。物理暴力裡有情緒、有憤怒,資訊戰裡只有冷靜和效率。而且資訊戰很適合被遺忘,一家大公司資料被黑,我們看一眼新聞標題,發一條推文,然後繼續過日子。

把 95% 的身家換成一個數字資產

2018 年 12 月,比特幣從美元價格上看一路下跌。蓬皮利亞諾在那個時間點,把自己約一半的淨資產從美元計價資產換成了比特幣。

他特意澄清,那種“2011 年隨手買了一點,後來它長成了大頭”的路徑不屬於他。他做的是主動的、有明確世界觀的決策。他在那個時候對宏觀環境有一個判斷:這一輪週期已經走到後期,收益率曲線倒掛,回購市場劇烈波動,大量 CEO 離職。他的推論是,當市場轉向的時候,政府一定會出手,一定會壓低利率,一定會印錢。

他完全沒有預見到會有全球大流行。他沒想到利率會直接降到零,也沒想到印鈔的規模會從幾千億一路推到幾萬億。但他的框架是對的:一旦政府這麼做,所有人都會湧向價值儲存資產,黃金、比特幣,都是。

2020 年春天,他看到政府開始激進的利率操作和量化寬鬆,於是把剩下的資產也換了進去。

這裡是整段訪談裡最有意思的一句心理描述:比特幣對他來說更接近一個儲蓄賬戶。 你問他“一美元值多少”,他會說一美元值一美元。他自己則用比特幣來計價:一枚比特幣值一枚比特幣,不是六萬美元,不是七萬美元。他自己的說法是,他就是把比特幣當儲蓄,不把它當成一個倉位。

這個換算帶來的行為變化是直接的。當你的計價單位是不斷貶值的貨幣,你會被激勵去消費、去投資,因為持有就是虧。當你的計價單位是不斷升值的資產,你的行為會變得極度反消費,因為你現在花掉的每一單位,都是從未來的購買力里扣的。

“當我的計價單位是比特幣,我每次消費時腦子裡算的是,這一下我花掉了多少比特幣。”(安東尼·蓬皮利亞諾)

他還補了一句:過去五十年其實是歷史的例外。人類在絕大多數時間裡就是按這種方式思考的。引入法定貨幣之後,才出現了“必須消費”的激勵結構。而美國是把這件事做到極致的國家,你去看看麥當勞在不同國家的可樂杯大小就明白了。

貨幣的本質,是一種信仰系統

回到最基礎的問題:錢是什麼?

蓬皮利亞諾的答案很直接:今天它是一種信仰系統。你相信一種貨幣比另一種更有價值,可能是因為它背後有某支軍隊,可能是某個政府的貨幣政策你認同或者不認同。但歸根到底,除了政府要求你用這種貨幣交稅,並且壟斷暴力、不交稅就把你關起來之外,它背後什麼都沒有。

歷史上並不是這樣。過去五千年裡,貨幣體系的底層技術是黃金。它之所以能當這個底層,是因為它稀缺,在系統之外,沒有人能憑空造出更多。這個對“價值儲存”的最佳化,支撐了整座貨幣大廈五千年。

但黃金的問題是交易太難。你拿著一整塊金條,別人要兩盎司,你得當場割下來。太重,寄送又貴。於是人們在黃金之上搭了第二層:紙面索取權。把黃金放進金庫,發行憑證,憑證可以流通,隨時可以兌換回黃金。再往上,電子貨幣、信用體系,一層一層搭上去。

1971 年,美國脫鉤黃金。當時被認為是臨時措施,後來沒有回去。

於是貨幣從“系統之外、無人能增發”變成了“政府完全控制、想印多少印多少”。有些國家做得還算剋制,有些國家做得一塌糊塗。

為什麼稀缺這件事這麼重要

Lex 問了一個更根本的問題:稀缺為什麼能讓東西值錢?

蓬皮利亞諾的回答是,稀缺和價值之間的相關性,跨越的不只是貨幣,而是所有資產。球鞋、藝術品、任何東西,稀缺本身就是價值的訊號。這是人類幾千年來判定價值的方式。

Lex 順著這個往下推了一層:生命本身也是這樣。如果人可以永生,一切都會失去意義。愛情也是,稀缺性讓相遇這件事變得珍貴。

蓬皮利亞諾接得更遠:錢就是時間。 你想賺錢,是因為錢能買到時間。他最喜歡的電影之一是《時間規劃局》(In Time),賈斯汀·汀布萊克主演。設定是每個人手臂上有一個倒計時,工作就是把時間打進你的賬戶,歸零就當場死亡。社會因此分成了不同時區:只有幾十小時的人住在貧民區,幾百年餘額的人住在富人區。電影裡每個人 25 歲之後停止衰老,所以有人可以活上一千年。

電影裡有一個細節他記得特別清楚:在底層,所有人都在跑,因為時間太稀缺,走路是不可想象的浪費。而在最上層,沒有人跑,跑步本身就是底層階級的標誌。

他用一個數字把這個概念釘下來:一百萬秒是 11 天,十億秒是 31 年。 一個二十多歲的年輕人,按預期壽命算,還剩大概 20 億秒。如果有人說,讓你和沃倫·巴菲特交換人生,你願不願意?很多人第一反應是願意。但你要變成 92 歲。

這才是那個尖銳的地方:你賺錢是為了買時間,但如果你只用美元來衡量財富,而美元在貶值,你就會陷入永恆的跑步機,賺到十萬想著五十萬,賺到五十萬想著兩百萬。因為你追逐的那個尺子本身在縮短。

每天新增 900 枚,每四年減半一次

現在可以聊具體的價格邏輯了。蓬皮利亞諾的框架簡單到近乎粗暴。

價格由供給和需求決定。對絕大多數資產,你不知道真實供給是多少,黃金、股票、房地產,你只能盡力估算。比特幣的特殊之處在於,供給端是 100% 可驗證的。它能給你看鏈上資料,看程式碼,2100 萬枚上限,永遠不會變,目前流通約 1860 萬枚,能追溯到 2009 年 1 月以來的每一筆交易。每天有 900 枚新幣進入流通。

所以你只需要預測需求的這一半。

再疊加上那個獨特的設計:每四年一次的程式化供給衝擊。最初是每 10 分鐘產出 50 枚,四年後減半到 25 枚,再四年到 12.5 枚,2020 年 5 月減到 6.25 枚。

他 2019 年就開始講一件事:2020 年會同時出現供給衝擊和需求衝擊。他不知道什麼時候牛市結束,也沒人能做到,但你能看出週期走到哪了。他的推演是,一旦市場轉向,政府必然出手,壓低利率,印錢。然後所有人湧向價值儲存資產,而與此同時供給端剛好減半。他管這叫“比特幣的火箭燃料”。

後來的事超出了他的預期,出現了疫情,但邏輯跑通了。

基於這個框架,他給出的預測是:2021 年會看到 10 萬美元的比特幣。 他從 2019 年就開始說這個數字,當時所有人都覺得他瘋了。現在他反而成了房間裡最保守的那個人,因為其他人已經在喊幾倍的溢價。

再往後,2024 年會有下一次供給衝擊。如果歷史模式重複,那麼在這波之後的 18 到 24 個月內,也就是 2026 年底之前,會看到 100 萬美元的比特幣。

100 萬美元的算術是怎麼來的

他用黃金來對標。黃金是一個 10 萬億美元的資產。論技術屬性,比特幣在可攜帶性、可分割性、可驗證性、稀缺性上全面佔優,有人說它是 10 倍改進,有人說 100 倍。

比特幣現在市值約 1 萬億美元。如果它只捕獲黃金市值,也就是 10 萬億美元,單枚價格大約 50 萬美元。如果是黃金市值的兩倍,也就是 20 萬億美元,單枚價格就是 100 萬美元。

他在這裡並沒有主張“比特幣一定值這麼多”。他想說的是,一項技術上 10 倍更優的資產,只要在方向上捕獲一部分價值,這個數量級就不算離譜。

順帶說一個他觀察到的資料:加密社群有個非常流行的段子,叫“用比特幣計價,一切都是跌的”。過去一年、三年、五年,用比特幣計價的美元跌了 99%,股票跌了 80% 到 85%,黃金、債券、房地產全線下跌。你可以說這是因為比特幣在美元計價下升值了,也可以說是全世界在對這個資產重新做價格發現,把它和股票比、和黃金比、和美元比,然後不斷上調它的排序。

這個重估有一部分來自林迪效應,存在的時間越長,就越可能繼續存在。有一部分來自基本面,算力、使用量、交易量。還有一部分來自供給固定的資產在需求上升時的自然結果。

他最在意的資料是:60% 的比特幣在過去 12 個月裡沒有從它所在的數字錢包裡移動過一次。 價格漲了幾百個百分點,波動巨大,單日 50% 的跌幅也出現過,這批人一動不動。這些人不看日內價格,他們只是買了,然後打算持有幾年。

他因此說了一句關於波動性的話,值得單獨拎出來:波動性本身沒有好壞,好壞取決於你的倉位方向。 你做多且波動向上,那是好事;你做多且波動向下,那是壞事。亞馬遜從上市至今,每一年都有兩位數的回撤,平均超過 30%,有一次回撤了 95%。這聽起來很像比特幣,但它是過去二十年表現最好的股票之一。

普通人該怎麼買,怎麼存

這是整期訪談裡最實用的部分。

先說買。有兩條路。一條是挖礦,把你手上的算力租給網路,換取系統每天產出的一部分。這是工作量證明的原始邏輯,用能量和計算換比特幣。

另一條是交易所,Coinbase、Gemini、Kraken、Cash App 都可以。他自己投了一家叫 BlockFi 的公司,提供加密資產的金融產品,所以你可以在那裡把美元換成比特幣,也可以把它放在計息賬戶裡,利率比傳統賬戶高,因為這是個新東西。

再說存。他用傳統銀行業的三層結構來類比。

第一層,放在銀行裡。方便,能隨時轉賬,但要承擔交易對手風險,你得相信這家銀行不會倒閉、不會有人把錢捲走。傳統系統裡有 FDIC 保險來對沖這個風險,加密世界裡對應的是大型交易所的信用和體量。

第二層,把錢取出來放在床墊下。不方便,但你掌握控制權。

第三層,把錢放進一個需要十道密碼和生物識別才能開啟的金庫。安全,但你自己也不容易拿出來。

比特幣的儲存完全對應這三層。放在交易所,就是第一層。放在硬體錢包,也就是一個 U 盤一樣的東西,插上電腦就能用,這是第二層。還有所謂的深度冷儲存,甚至有公司把私鑰埋在山裡,有武裝守衛,這是第三層。

加密社群那句著名的話是:不是你的私鑰,就不是你的幣。 他的朋友以賽亞·傑克遜(Isaiah Jackson)改了個版本,“不是你的私鑰,就不是你的乳酪”。

但他並不教條。他說這裡的關鍵變數是你買它的目的和時間長度。

比特幣有三個用途:價值儲存、交易媒介、投機。投機的人沒辦法把幣放進深度冷儲存,因為他需要隨時交易。這類人處在高風險高回報的象限,可能有盈利,但也引入了大量風險。而那個“我買了一枚,等我孩子 18 歲生日給他”的人,是完全不同的物種。

他觀察到的是,比特幣社群裡時間視野長的人越來越多,這也解釋了那 60% 為什麼不動。

對普通人,他的建議是:哪怕只買 5 美元的比特幣,也把整個流程走一遍。從交易所提幣到硬體錢包,完整走一次。這本身就是一個值得做的思維練習。就像你說要買一個資產,但你從來沒去看過它、沒真正做過一次決策,那你其實沒有經歷過這件事。

定投:一個聽起來太簡單、但幾乎沒人做的策略

這是他給普通人最核心的建議,而且他自己也說,這聽起來簡單到不像建議。

美元成本平均法(Dollar Cost Averaging)。

邏輯是這樣的:絕大多數人手上沒有一大筆現金等著配置,他們拿時間換工資,

每兩週發一次薪。所以更靠譜的做法跟擇時無關,它落在發薪那天的一個動作上:把你想配置的百分比拿出來買,然後不管價格。

他舉了個具體的反例。2017 年 12 月,比特幣 2 萬美元,那是上一輪暴漲的頂點。如果你在那一刻把所有的錢一次性投進去,你需要等將近三年才在美元計價上回到“盈虧平衡”。但如果你從那一刻開始,每兩週買一次,連續買三年,三年後你是幾百個百分點的正收益。因為你在 15000、12000、10000、9000、8000、3000、4000、5000 的位置全都買過。

他強調,這件事的重點不在買點,在時間和複利。美國有財務教育的缺失,很多人以為投資需要比市場更聰明。更有效的做法是設一個資產配置方案,比如 30% 股票、10% 房地產、某個比例的數字資產,每次發薪就按比例投進去,把它當成一個儲蓄賬戶,然後不去看。

他給了一個斷言:幾乎任何一個美國人,只要遵循這種長期定投,一輩子下來都能成為百萬富翁。

這條建議適用於任何資產。你不信比特幣,只想要標普 500,那你也不該去擇時標普 500。每兩週買一點,二十年後你會在各種價位上都買過,得到一個混合平均成本。真正重要的從來都是市場裡的時間和複利,買貴 2% 還是便宜 2% 排在很後面。買得足夠頻繁,你對波動的敏感度會被磨平,價格劇烈晃動的時候你也能坐得住。

屎幣、迷因和一場不對稱戰爭

Lex 問,什麼是 shitcoin?

蓬皮利亞諾說,這取決於你問誰。在最狂熱的比特幣支持者那裡,除了比特幣之外的一切都是 shitcoin。在那些認為其他專案也有價值的比特幣支持者那裡,shitcoin 指的是下半場的那一批。它本質上是一個迷因,用來表達“你放進這個桶裡的東西沒有價值”。

有意思的是它進入過美國國會的記錄。俄亥俄州眾議員沃倫·戴維森(Warren Davidson)在一場聽證會上,當著所有人的面把這個詞念進了國會記錄。這件事讓他在比特幣社群裡的聲望飆升。

然後他講了一段關於權力結構的話,這是整期訪談裡最有洞察力的部分之一。

假設你是一個挑戰者,你要去挑戰世界上最受尊敬的建制機構。如果你穿著西裝打著領帶走進去說,我要和你們辯論觀點,你會被碾碎。他們會放出律師、監管者、遊說團體。換一種打法,說我要在網際網路上用迷因把你淹死,我要控制公共敘事,那權力的不對稱就被抹平了。

“這就是終極的游擊戰。你必須要利用你手上的優勢。”(安東尼·蓬皮利亞諾)

反過來想,如果摩根大通或者高盛或者美聯儲開始在推特上發迷因,我們會瘋掉。因為那意味著他們被拉低到了挑戰者的水平線上,這個動作本身就是對媒介的承認。

還有一招更狠:從內部一個一個地招募。 他說他每天在推特和領英上收到訊息,“我是銀行從業者,但我骨子裡是個比特幣信徒”。不需要在人口上滲透,只需要在觀念上滲透。他開玩笑說這叫“街上當銀行家,床上當比特幣信徒”。

關於社群的毒性,他的解釋是雙面的。任何社群都是一個光譜,有一端是過分善良和愚蠢,有一端是過分聰明和混蛋,中間是大多數人。而極端的那兩端永遠是聲音最大的。

更關鍵的是視角差:從外部看,探索一個新想法是一個學習過程,我不知道我理解得對不對,這裡有 A、B、C 三個觀點。從內部看,這是有一萬億美元的價值擺在桌上,我們必須用命守住它。真相在兩者之間。世界處於灰度裡,大多數人都活在那片灰色地帶。

他還有一個觀察:比特幣社群對網際網路和網際網路文化的理解,比幾乎所有人都好。所以他們能精準地摧毀一個敘事,用的工具是迷因、是 Reddit、是推特、是 YouTube、是播客。那個經典場景他喜歡反覆講:財經媒體習慣了軟綿綿的觀點文章,結果比特幣信徒上來就擺資料,A、B、C 三個資料點,一、二、三三個例子,然後說你錯了。對方只能喊“你錯了”“你錯了”,而他們回一句:那你來反駁我剛才說的。

但 Lex 在這裡補了一個非常重要的限定,我覺得是這期訪談裡最好的一段對話。

他說,追求真相、拆解壞想法,是可以做得有風度的。而要有風度,需要極高的技巧。人們誤以為反駁很容易,看到一句話裡的錯誤,就可以說“你錯了”。你可以這麼說,但如果你想有效,就需要真功夫。他舉了克里斯托弗·希欽斯(Christopher Hitchens)作為例子,一個語言上的完美投手,用文字拆掉一個論點、逼近一步真相,這需要極大的功力。

他真正失望的是:大部分人的拆解根本沒有下功夫。 如果你要參與這種文化,你就該把它當成一門技能來練,一萬小時,刻意練習,自我批評。匿名不代表你不能從中獲得深層的樂趣,不代表你不能真的影響世界,前提是你得練好。

蓬皮利亞諾完全同意,並且把它接回了他自己的框架:這就是意圖和行動的區別。如果你的意圖是告訴一個人他錯了,好讓他看到真相,那是一回事。如果你的意圖是告訴他錯了然後看他難受,那完全是另一回事。把意圖和行動拆開看,你很快就能判斷一個人到底想幹什麼。

他還說,做得好的迷因是傳達一個 blunt message 最精準的方式。它超越了一張靜態圖片,那些精心剪輯的影片,用幽默和娛樂的包裝,把觀點砸得死死的。這是一種很多人不具備的技能。他自己不做,他只是看,轉發他喜歡的那些。但你能一眼看出誰是高手,誰做得很爛。

有人跟他說過一個觀點,他覺得很有道理:不管是 emoji、GIF 還是迷因,本質上是象形文字的延伸和進化。人類做這件事做了幾千年,只是現在按一個鍵就能送到幾百萬人面前。

狗狗幣:技術之王與一個笑話

Lex 把話題扔到了馬斯克身上。

技術圈裡幾乎沒有人認為狗狗幣是一項革命性的加密技術,它有一堆問題,包括安全性。但馬斯克不停地提它。

蓬皮利亞諾先糾正了一個稱呼:在最新的 SEC 檔案裡,馬斯克的官方頭銜是“特斯拉技術之王”(Techno King),CFO 的頭銜是“貨幣大師”(Master of Coin)。

所以,當一個人給自己起名叫技術之王、給 CFO 起名叫貨幣大師的時候,狗狗幣其實是他能談論的最不瘋狂的東西。

他認為馬斯克被嚴重低估的一點,是他對網際網路文化、對迷因、對人類心理和營銷的理解。他每次談狗狗幣,都是給一整代年輕人、給整個加密行業的一次集結號。這是一面他可以揮舞、可以大喊、可以隨便發推而不用擔心被懲罰的旗子。他可以談比特幣,可以談加密貨幣,但那不會有狗狗幣那麼好笑,那麼貼合網際網路文化的本質。

他在用這個時代的人聽得懂的語言說話。如果你想觸達“奇怪的人”,你就不能嚴肅。而大多數人都是奇怪的,大眾是奇怪的。

再往深一層:他在用狗狗幣說“我這麼做是因為我可以”。他不能拿證券這麼做,不能拿某些其他資產這麼做。蓬皮利亞諾把它畫成一個韋恩圖:一邊是一堆人知道、在乎、覺得有趣的東西,另一邊是他可以隨便談而不會惹上麻煩的東西,兩者的交集就是狗狗幣。

這是對 SEC 豎的中指。

Lex 說他很愛看,但自己沒這個膽子。蓬皮利亞諾說,當你是技術之王的時候,你想幹什麼都行,這是我們所有人都該向往的,在自己的小世界裡當技術之王。

但他也指出了讓股東不安的那一面:當一個人正在致力於創造星際生命、解決氣候危機、造電動車,相比之下 SEC 和這些東西在他眼裡就只是麻煩。對一個把身家託付給他、指望他創造股東價值的人來說,這很可怕。同時這又是一場拔河,他每走一步,都在改變監管者、立法者、政客和國家的行為。這是一盤三維棋,蓬皮利亞諾說自己在旁邊看,也在和別人一起猜。

他最後補了一個判斷:他不認為馬斯克是買了很多狗狗幣、發推拉盤、然後賺錢走人。這背後有一個經濟論證之外的東西。 它更像一個元資訊,是對很多東西的一次整體表達。

Lex 接了一句自己的感受:馬斯克教了他很多關於溝通的事,其中一件是讓他不再那麼在乎老派的那一套。他說自己在 MIT 的時候一直很困擾,那裡的官僚和層級會壓制創新和聰明人。從這個意義上,狗狗幣是對這套系統的一次“去你的”,既是負面的,也是正面的。

而且馬斯克看世界的方式和比特幣信徒很像:長期主義,先問“如果這些想法成立,二三十年後、五十年後世界會是什麼樣”,然後倒推。

蓬皮利亞諾在這裡引了貝佐斯的方法:最小化後悔。 在腦子裡快進到 80 歲、90 歲、100 歲,然後往回看,問自己這兩個選項裡,哪一個是我最不會後悔的。持續這樣做,第一,你自動獲得了長期視角;第二,你會最佳化“最少後悔”;第三,即使你只看十年,那也比大多數人看得遠得多,這本身就是巨大的優勢。

他補了一個關於預測的觀察:蓋茨說過,我們高估一年能做的事,低估十年能做的事。蓬皮利亞諾說這其實是誤差的度數問題。十年,你可能錯 10%;如果那條進步曲線繼續,二十年你可能錯 100%;三十年你可能錯 1000%。越往遠看,越不準確。

所以想透過迭代走向成功的人,是跟著麵包屑走,走到哪算哪。而馬斯克、貝佐斯、傑克·多西這些人,是先設定一個未來某個時點上存在的世界,然後不管短期的迭代和激勵,直接朝那個點造過去。

NFT:給網際網路裝上數字稀缺性

先解釋什麼是 NFT。同質化(fungible)的意思是,你把一張一百美元和一堆一百美元混在一起,隨手抓一張走,你不會更虧,因為只要是一百美元,就是一百美元,你不需要那一張特定的鈔票。

非同質化就像藝術。你把一幅畢加索放在桌上,旁邊放三幅沒名氣藝術家的作品,混起來,你隨手拿一幅,如果拿的不是畢加索,你就虧了。

NFT 做的事,是在數字環境裡創造稀缺性和原創性。一個音樂檔案,你發給我,按一下傳送,實際上是複製,你有一份我有一份,我們都很開心。但如果這個檔案的前提是稀缺,按一下傳送,你拿到副本,我保留原件,那就有問題了。

所以 NFT 這項技術,不管它跑在什麼鏈上、什麼社群裡,本質上就是把真正的數字稀缺性帶到網際網路上。

接下來是人類一貫的行為:去舊世界看看什麼東西是稀缺的、有價值的,然後想辦法把它搬到數字世界。藝術是最完美的例子。

去年他認真研究這件事,得出的結論是:比特幣會比黃金更大,數字形態的應用會比模擬形態的應用更大。藝術也一樣,數字藝術世界會比傳統藝術世界更大。

這話一開始聽起來很瘋狂,直到你逐條對比:數字藝術更可攜帶,可分份,需求市場是網際網路而不是拍賣行,展示時可以帶動態和音樂,這些全面優於傳統藝術。傳統藝術市場有而數字藝術市場沒有的,只有一個東西:敘事。而那個敘事正在被建立起來。

他說,全世界現在正在經歷的,是一次關於“如何用這項技術創造新東西”的探索。而我們短期內會做得不好。所以他只聚焦在一個領域:數字藝術。

他講了自己的動機:他一直對藝術感興趣,但他不會去買一幅畫掛在牆上當儲值手段。現在這個邏輯成立了。世界上最富的那批人裡,有 20% 的財富在藝術品上。你現在可以把這個概念搬到數字領域,而數字領域對數字原住民來說更自然。

他給了一個特別好懂的類比:想象給每樣東西打上序列號。 埃菲爾鐵塔只有一個是有價值的,就是第一個。所有複製品,不管多大、在哪、誰做的、運到哪,都沒有價值。埃菲爾鐵塔 001 才是最重要的那個。

至於這東西能長多大,他的判斷是:我們現在看到的,大概是它最終規模的 1%。

Lex 順著往下推:把具體應用剝掉,只留下本質,就是數字稀缺性會不會在網際網路上變得重要。把物理世界裡稀缺的東西搬進數字空間,去試驗哪些能搬哪些不能搬。而且數字空間裡還有一些物理世界根本不存在的東西,也可能因為獲得稀缺性而受益。比如一條推文。藝術可以被寬泛地定義為任何創造物,那麼這種稀缺性有可能吞掉整個數字世界,把所有東西都變成市場。

蓬皮利亞諾接了一個十年後的畫面:你我在一個虛擬世界裡參與數字經濟,可能是一件藝術品,可能是一個數字雕塑,可能是遊戲裡的一個皮膚,可能是你在網上買的某件數字商品,你把它帶到一個數字博物館或虛擬博物館裡展示。於是你可以收門票,可以寄售數字商品。這是對模擬世界那套玩法的復刻,只是搬到了數字裡。而一旦這麼做,這些資產的可觸達市場就會爆炸。

他再往前推一步:二十年前,如果我說要給你一個全球教育,意思是我得把你一個人一個人地搬到不同的地理位置去,花時間、花資源、花大量精力。而現在如果我把你傳送到虛擬世界裡,你能經歷多個地理環境,你還能帶著數字商品在不同經濟體、不同地點之間移動,你可能只獲得 90% 的價值,拿不到那 100%,但你可以在快得多的節奏下完成。六個月裡,你的進展可能是物理世界裡的三倍。

Lex 順著問了一個轉身回到開頭的問題:如果我們的感官接進去,越來越多人把生產和社會生活搬進這個數字世界,那戰爭在那個世界裡長什麼樣?今天出生的孩子,會不會在那個博物館世界裡打仗?

蓬皮利亞諾的答案是:我們正在從由炸彈、子彈和士兵決定的戰場,轉向由資訊和網路能力決定的戰場。在那個虛擬世界裡,關鍵落在攻擊或保衛虛擬財產、虛擬生活,以及某種程度的虛擬主權上。他認為後者的可能性更大。

於是他得出一個讓人發涼的推論:未來一個國家對另一個國家能做的、最具破壞性的事情之一,就是直接關掉網際網路,讓所有人陷入孤立。

我不需要物理上傷害你,如果我能心理上傷害你。我不需要用暴力壟斷來說服你,如果我能透過虛假資訊和其他手段,改變你看世界的方式。

一百萬只黑猩猩

Lex 把話題拉到了 AI。

他說,數字世界的一個特性是,AI 系統在那個世界裡能以更小的摩擦、更大的功率運轉。在物理世界裡造出大規模、能造成任意量級破壞(或貢獻)的機器人很難,在數字世界裡容易得多。

蓬皮利亞諾的回答先從一個定義開始:很多所謂的人工智慧,名字裡就寫著,它只是人類智慧在規模上的複製,是自動化的、程式化的。在模擬世界裡,你要僱一千個人或者像亞馬遜那樣僱幾百萬人,給他們一個使命,推著他們去做,這需要招聘、留存、培訓、資源。在數字世界裡,如果你能直接程式設計資源,獲得同樣的槓桿,規模化地、程式化地去做,而且讓它們在沒有預先想到每一種邊界情況的前提下自己做決策,這才是我們談 AI 時真正在談的東西。

然後他給出一個判斷:技術被創造出來,所有人都會用,好的用法和壞的用法都會出現。手機、尋呼機、網際網路、槍,都是這樣。真正的問題是,那些惡意的用法,是來自疏忽,還是來自某個惡意的人。

他說自己瞭解得不夠多,Lex 和很多其他人更懂。但他認為會存在惡意的行為者,而我們會像歷來處理那些濫用技術的人一樣處理他們:理解它,識別它,控制它,然後逆轉或阻止它。

真正危險的是那些無意的後果。 因為當一個東西能自己思考,而你沒有辦法用暴力壟斷去控制它的時候,那就很可怕了。

Lex 接著給出了一個我覺得是這期訪談裡最鋒利的思想實驗。

他說,可怕的地方在於它能任意地規模化,它可以非常快地超過人類的數量,即使它比人類笨。

拿物理世界裡的黑猩猩舉例。假設突然之間,黑猩猩可以任意快速地繁殖,今天只有一百萬只,明天有一萬億隻。那個世界會變成什麼樣?這些黑猩猩他媽的到底是從哪來的?我們可以安慰自己說,希望黑猩猩不會變暴力,因為在資源不緊張的時候它們好像不暴力。但我們不知道。

而問題在於,這一切都始於造出第一臺“黑猩猩倍增器”。所有人都會說,好啊,有很多好的應用,也許它們可以幫你做家務。但最終是你說的那些意外後果,你不知道會發生什麼。

Lex 說他真正擔心的並不在超級智慧那一頭,風險更集中在超級愚蠢的系統在規模上的放大。當它們被複制到一百萬、十億,被允許在數字空間裡自由行動,而我們的生活正在越來越多地搬進數字空間,這很恐怖。

蓬皮利亞諾接過這個詞,加了一個維度:不可逆。 意外的負面影響本身還好,只要系統裡有可逆性,我們能修正錯誤。真正可怕的是,把意外的錯誤和不可逆性疊在一起,人類從此失去了控制。

如果你有一萬億隻黑猩猩,當你試圖開始消滅它們的時候,它們不會高興的。

他推薦的書

他先說了自己的播客和郵件。播客叫 The Pomp Podcast,郵件叫 The Pomp Letter。

他說這是他自己做的最自私的兩件事。播客是他學習的方式,請人上來講他們正在想的一切,他提問。他的目標是:如果我在學,別人也在學。郵件是他每天早上必讀的,因為它強迫他把想法收集起來,勉強組織成連貫的表達。這件事就算沒人看,他也會做。而一旦公開發布,它就會引來反饋,好的壞的都有。人們覺得你是白痴的時候會告訴你,覺得你聰明的時候通常不回覆。

然後是比特幣相關的書單:

  • 《比特幣標準》(The Bitcoin Standard),他認為這是最好的入門,把整個圖景鋪得很清楚
  • 《比特幣:你不能搞砸的錢》(Bitcoin: Money You Can't Fuck With),作者是傑森·威廉姆斯(Jason Williams)
  • 《分層貨幣》(Layered Money),作者尼克·卡特(Nick Carter)
  • 《比特幣在美國黑人中》(Bitcoin in Black America),作者以賽亞·傑克遜,講的是黑人社群如何能從比特幣中獲得非對稱的收益
  • 傑夫·布斯(Jeff Booth)的《明日的代價》(The Price of Tomorrow)

但他說,從心理學和哲學層面,對他影響最大、最符合比特幣精神、卻一個字都沒提比特幣的書,是馬克·斯皮茨納格爾(Mark Spitznagel)的《資本的 dao》(The Dao of Capital)。這本書反覆講一件事:長期思維、局外人、顛覆。斯皮茨納格爾管理一隻做尾部風險對沖的基金,2020 年 2 月、3 月他們漲了大概四千個百分點。而在此之前,他們大概連續八九年都在虧錢。但如果你把時間拉長看,他們依然是最好的基金之一。這就是那個心態:所有人都在看短期。

至於人生層面,他說有三本書是 20 歲那年坐在伊拉克沙漠裡讀完的:《富爸爸窮爸爸》《思考致富》《巴比倫最富有的人》。他說他大概一條具體的執行方法都沒照做,但那是一次徹底的心態轉變,改變了他和錢的關係,以及他想拿這輩子做什麼。

還有一本他認為可能是寫得最好的書之一:《當呼吸化為空氣》(When Breath Becomes Air)。一個醫生在臨終前寫下自己的經歷和思考。他說,如果你問他在伊拉克最大的收穫是什麼,那就是這類書也在告訴你的事:我們都會死。你可以希望自己永生,但某個時點你會死。這會讓你把注意力集中到時間這個真正稀缺的資產上,然後把它更多用在享受和幸福上。

你不該在 60 歲才開始想這個問題

Lex 問:你冥想自己的死亡嗎?你在伊拉克面對過死亡,你今天怕死嗎?

蓬皮利亞諾說,如果你盯著一件事、一直擔心它,至少對他來說,你會變得不安。而經歷過戰爭之後,其他一切相比之下都不重要了。他記得自己回國後重新進入大學環境,看到人們焦慮的那些事,他心想:讓我跟你解釋一下真實的世界是什麼樣。

即使今天,熟悉他的人會說他很少為什麼事情激動,好的壞的都不太激動。因為歸根到底,如果那就是最終結果,那就享受它。

關於“錢能不能買來幸福”,他說,人們討論這個問題的時候,腦子裡想的都是物質:大房子、遊艇、跑車。他去問:如果我說有錢能讓你花更多時間陪家人呢? 問題立刻就被重新框定了。對他來說,如果能用財務資源換更多時間,去做自己喜歡的事,那他就更幸福。這可能不適用於所有人,但他不在乎別人怎麼想,因為別人不是他。你得自己搞清楚什麼對你有用。

談到人生的意義,他說他的答案不追求準確,只追求對他自己是對的:就是開心。

他講了朋友喬納森·古勒(Jonathan Galler)提出的“夠了就是夠了”(enough is enough)。他把它套在比特幣上:任何一個比特幣信徒都相信同樣的兩件事。第一,他們不希望美元價格上漲,因為他們想買更多比特幣,一直買到他們覺得自己手上夠多為止。第二,不管他們手上有多少,他們都覺得不夠,還想買更多。

所以某個時刻你必須問自己:多少才算夠?

他說,人生的意義就在於搞清自己的滿足閾值在哪。對有些人是錢,對有些人是時間自由,對有些人是影響力,但搞清這件事本身很重要,然後去實現它。他觀察到的是,那些想清楚了、並且有意識去做的人,實現的時間線比沒有的人短得多。有些人 60 歲才開始想這件事,那你當然不可能在 60 歲之前實現。

Lex 在這裡加了一個我覺得非常漂亮的補充。他說他在這兩種狀態之間來回擺:大部分時間待在“夠了就是夠了”那一端,感恩、滿足、對當下每一刻深深感激,對自己手上的比特幣深深感激,覺得夠了。然後有一部分時間,也許是隨著年紀增長會縮小的一部分時間,待在另一端:極度自我批判,什麼都不夠,你做過的任何事都一文不值。他引了馬文·明斯基(Marvin Minsky)的話:成功的秘訣是痛恨你做過的一切。然後在這兩端之間來回切換。你不需要一整天都用同一套演算法,可以把感恩的、鬆弛的那部分留給家人朋友和愛的人,獨處或者工作的時候再把那個瘋子放出來。

創新與安全:比特幣和以太坊真正的分歧

Lex 請他拿比特幣當參照,講講他對其他加密技術的看法。

蓬皮利亞諾說,如果你把各個專案支持者的所有論證都排開來看,最大的差別其實歸結為兩個詞:創新與安全。

比特幣社群決定,安全是第一優先順序,為此犧牲其他一切:交易速度、成本、任何你能想到的、對一種貨幣來說重要的東西。第一最佳化目標是安全,去中心化高於一切。

而我們已經看到過反例。Facebook 的 Libra,現在叫 Diem,它不具有去中心化,因此非常容易受到民族國家的干預。

其他很多平臺和區塊鏈會說,安全很重要,但排不到第一位。我們相信這裡有取捨,可以犧牲一點安全,換取交易速度、可組合性,或者別的什麼。

以太坊作為市值第二大的社群和區塊鏈,它當初被創造出來,就是因為有一群人想在比特幣上做某件事,覺得做不到,於是說我們去造一個有智慧合約的東西。

他說,這些都是技術。所以“你對、你錯”這種部落主義在他眼裡有點幼稚,市場最終會決定什麼最有價值。比特幣社群裡有很多愚蠢的想法,也有很多非常好的想法,以太坊世界也一樣。

那部落主義從哪來?他認為源頭在那個價格標籤。如果回到技術史,風險投資人不會圍坐在桌邊,像宗教狂熱分子一樣互相吼叫。 你押注一種雲端計算平臺,我押注另一種,市場會決定,我們各自努力讓自己押的那一個成功。

加密世界的敏感,部分來自它的融資方式。這裡有風險投資、專業資金管理人、資產配置者,但也有散戶和公眾參與。透過 ICO 或其他形式的融資,一種說法是這讓“小人物”獲得了參與機會,另一種說法是這讓欺騙和詐騙變得更容易。

他的結論是:加密是一個思想的競技場,就是一場消耗戰。十年後你我再聊,我們會說市場判定 X 有價值,Y 沒有。所以這中間所有的部落主義,好玩、有參與感,但歸根到底不重要。因為公眾參與了進來,有大量的個性人物,我們常常把注意力放在那些極端的、喜歡說狠話的人身上,但他們並不能代表整個社群。

黃金在被重新定價,而大多數人都沒注意到

他把黃金和比特幣放在一起,講了一段資料密度很高的分析。

黃金社群和比特幣社群如果並排放,他們會同意世界上所有的問題,也會同意解決方案就是健全貨幣。分歧只在於:黃金社群認為健全貨幣的模擬形態是答案,比特幣社群認為是數字形態。

什麼是健全貨幣?在系統之外,沒有人能造出更多。 沒有人控制它,稀缺性是最根本的東西。

然後他擺資料。黃金從 2020 年 8 月以來是下跌的。而在同一段時期,各國央行進行了歷史性的量化寬鬆,美國印了六萬億美元。歷史上最好的價值儲存資產,在 2008 年金融危機時因為政府應對而創下歷史新高的那個資產,在這場危機的主要階段反而是下跌的。

再看央行:長期以來他們是黃金的大持有者,按月淨買入。而過去六個月裡,有幾個月他們是淨賣出。

再看珠寶需求,也就是黃金的非貨幣價值,2013 年見頂,之後持續下滑。

所以畫面是這樣的:珠寶需求在收縮,央行時買時賣、總體在收縮,投資角度上價格在下跌,而這三項加起來佔黃金用途的 93%,只有 7% 用於實際技術和金屬導電等工業用途。一個十萬億美元的資產,看起來正在走下坡路。

他謹慎地補了一句:也許資料會變,那我就改主意,別人也會改。但如果真如他所說,那這個十萬億美元資產在收縮,那些價值會流向哪裡?而與此同時,你看到的不只是散戶、不只是富人和精英,還有金融機構、企業、養老基金,大量湧入這種數字健全貨幣。

給沒有銀行賬戶的人一把鑰匙

Lex 問:美元對美國人、對世界上很多人都挺好用的。你描繪的是一個比特幣可能成為世界主要貨幣的未來,這個路徑是什麼樣的?

蓬皮利亞諾先否定了“直接競爭”的框架。他說,世界上真正有價值的那些技術,通常是擴大市場的技術,而不是搶市場份額的技術。Uber 沒有把計程車全部取代,它極大地擴大了市場,現在美國有幾百萬人因為沒有 Uber 就不會有車。

比特幣也是這樣。它確實有交易媒介的成分,和美元存在競爭,但它還有價值儲存這個成分,而那個市場更大。

然後他講了一個代際差異。年輕人從出生起手裡就有一部手機,他們是數字原住民。去銀行、發電匯、去 ATM 取現金,在他們看來是古董行為。

他講了個特別生動的例子。他問 24 歲的弟弟,你怎麼給朋友轉錢?第一個答案是 Venmo,他猜到了。第二個答案是 Uber,他沒猜到。他說怎麼用 Uber 轉錢?弟弟說,我們一起上車,到地方把車費分了。

他和弟弟只差了十來歲,但心理結構已經完全不同。

所以當一個年輕人環顧四周,看到股票、債券、貨幣、大宗商品,他會得出這樣的判斷:債券的實際回報率是平的甚至負的,因為我相信我的美元在貶值。再往下推,1971 年至今,用美元計價的股市是一條 45 度向上的線,年化七八個百分點,只要長期持有就能賺錢。但如果你用黃金計價,股市從 1971 年至今是下跌的。

那麼問題就來了:是股市真的在積累價值,還是它計價的貨幣在貶值?而且是一種非常剋制的貶值,不是短期內跌 50%,但它一直在跌。

於是人們開始意識到,傳統的 60/40 全球組合不管用了,40% 配在債券上根本不行。

他說,人們通常從兩條路徑看比特幣。第一條是價值儲存,一種儲蓄技術。他在這裡提出了一個我覺得非常有力的批評:在傳統世界裡,我們告訴一個老師、一個消防員、一個會計、一箇中層管理者,去把你的本職工作做好,做到行業最好。然後,順便,你還得是一個專業投資者。因為你如果把錢放在銀行賬戶裡,你的財富會被稀釋掉。所以你不能只是儲蓄,你必須投資。

這對普通人是一個太高的要求。 他們光是做好本職工作、照顧好家庭就已經很吃力了,現在還要去當投資者。

所以比特幣作為一種儲蓄技術的意義在於:你買入它,長期來看購買力會上升,因為供給固定而需求持續增長。

第二條路徑是投資組合裡那些替代性資產。藝術、房地產、貴金屬。他說,人們持有這些東西,大多心裡裝的是價值儲存,升值預期排不到第一位。

但這裡有一個關鍵的區別:黃金是一個敘事驅動的資產。 我們告訴人們它稀缺,我們告訴人們它是價值儲存。可實際上我們並不知道世界上有多少黃金,我們有一個很好的估算,但我們無法證明。我們不知道每天有多少從地裡挖出來,同樣是很好的估算,但無法證明。

這就是“敘事驅動”的意思:你無法用數學證明它。

而網際網路和數字技術帶來的變化是,人們現在有了驗證的慾望。我看到一個標題,我想自己去查。你說某個東西稀缺,你證明給我看。他說,他和弟弟這一代人聽到一個說法會去 Google 查,然後回來告訴父母,你們講錯了。

這種可證明性,正在變得極其重要。

一件進行和平抗議的工具

關於審查,他講了一段我覺得是整期訪談裡政治意味最重、也最真誠的話。

他說,美國有美國式的優越感,因為我們有炸彈、有子彈、有士兵、有軍事力量,我們基本上在全世界推行我們的意志。所以有一種很強的論點:有些被制裁的國家,那些國家的人民什麼都沒做錯。政府是壞的,但人民也在被傷害。

他說,如果你真的從西方世界觀裡跳出來,只把自己看作人類的一員,那這就是審查。審查可能有它的理由,但也可能沒有。

而比特幣作為一種支付網路做的是:任何人,只要有網際網路連線,不管你出生在哪、說什麼語言、信什麼宗教、有多少財富、受過什麼教育,全都不重要。只要有網際網路連線,你就可以接入這個貨幣系統,不需要請求任何人許可,就可以把價值轉移到世界任何地方。

在美國,我們在美元和傳統銀行體系裡基本上擁有這種能力,我可以把錢轉給幾乎任何人,除非他在某個名單上。而世界上大多數人沒有這種能力。

他說,你在很多國家看到的是,當本國貨幣開始崩潰,政府或掌權群體的第一反應是把公民鎖在貨幣裡,實施資本管制。為什麼?因為如果放他們出去,問題會加劇。

所以比特幣做的事情,是給了世界上幾十億人一件工具,一件進行和平抗議的工具。

他說,過去十二個月,美聯儲、美國的民選官員,以及全世界的央行,決定創造數萬億美元並注入貨幣系統,你和我一點發言權都沒有。他們有理由,有些理由還相當不錯,他們在緩解短期痛苦,長期的問題以後再解決。但你我沒有任何決定權。

而做出這些影響深遠的決定的人,是極少數。而且很多情況下,這些人屬於被任命的那一類,選舉產生的身份跟他們無關。你可以說我們選了任命他們的人,但那種問責關係並不真的成立。

所以比特幣是什麼?它是讓世界上任何一個有網際網路連線的人,都能接入一個價值儲存和貨幣網路,讓他們可以和平抗議,可以從一個對世界上大多數人都不奏效的系統裡退出。

它把權力從那些集中的、有時非民選的地方,轉移到個人和人民手上。

訪談最後,Lex 感謝他花時間,感謝他教育世界、也教育自己。他提到甘地的那句話作為收尾:如果自由不包含犯錯的自由,那它就不值得擁有。

如果你讀到這裡想做點什麼

  • 拿 5 美元,把完整流程走一遍。從交易所買入,提到硬體錢包,再轉回來。金額不重要,重要的是你親手經歷過一次私鑰交接、一次鏈上確認、一次地址校驗。沒走過流程的人談比特幣,談的都是想象。
  • 別擇時,定投。設一個固定的日子(發薪日最好),按你設定的資產比例買入,然後不看價格。2017 年 12 月頂點一次性買入的人要等近三年才回本,同期每兩週買一次的人三年後是幾百個點的收益。這條對任何資產都成立,包括標普 500。
  • 先想清楚你要的是哪個用途。價值儲存、交易媒介、投機,這三件事對應完全不同的儲存方式。要長期儲存的人應該把幣放進自己能控制的冷錢包,需要頻繁交易的人做不到這一點,那就得接受交易所的交易對手風險。儲存方式選錯,後果比買入時機選錯嚴重得多。
  • 把“多少才算夠”寫下來。具體到數字。這件事越晚想,實現的時間線越長。有些人 60 歲才開始想,那就不可能在 60 歲之前實現。
  • 用時間而不是美元來衡量收益。一百萬秒是 11 天,十億秒是 31 年。算一下你現在還剩多少秒,再看你每天花掉的時間換回了什麼。
  • 想了解這個領域,從《比特幣標準》開始,然後是《分層貨幣》和《你不能搞砸的錢》。如果只想讀一本和比特幣無關但精神一致的書,讀馬克·斯皮茨納格爾的《資本的 dao》。
文稿來自公開 Kaggle 資料集(rajneesh231/lex-fridman-podcast-transcript),為早期自動轉錄存檔,可能存在識別錯誤。
The following is a conversation with Anthony Pompliano, entrepreneur, technology investor, prolific writer, podcaster, and Twitter user on topics of finance, cryptocurrency, technology, and economics. I highly recommend his popular podcast and daily letter called The Pump Podcast and The Pump Letter. Quick thank you to our sponsors, Theragun Muscle Recovery Device, Sun Basket Meal Delivery Service, ExpressVPN, and Indeed Hiring website. Click their links to support this podcast. As a side note, let me say that I'll be having many conversations in the coming months about cryptocurrency with people of all kinds of backgrounds and worldviews. Those who are proponents of Bitcoin, like Anthony, Nick Carter, Robert Breedlove, Alex Glastine, and many others. And those who are proponents of other cryptocurrency technologies, like Vitalik Buterin, Charles Hoskinson, Richard Hart, Sergey Nazarov, Silvia Macaulay, and many others as well. I'm not framing this as a debate. I'm simply looking to explore exciting ideas in the space of technologies that could very well change human civilization and AGI civilization as well. I appreciate that some communities are a bit more intense in their style of communication and others, but I personally am only interested in open minded, respectful collaboration in exploring ideas. I personally try to like to approach conversations by considering that I may be wrong about everything and I'm looking to learn. I won't engage in groupthink, social signaling, outrage mobs, mocking, and derision. If you do, I understand, it's just not my thing. I send you my love either way and hope to meet you in person or some drinks, some good laughs, and a good conversation one day. No matter the difference in style or substance, we're all just human after all. This is an amazing ride we're all on together. Buy the ticket, take the ride, as Hunter S. Thompson said, whether you pay for that ticket with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or the dollar, gold, seashells, a beer, or just a good old smile. This is the Lex Friedman podcast. And here is my conversation with Anthony Pampliano. You served in the US Army for six years and spent 13 months in Iraq in 2008 and 2009. Can you tell the story of why you joined the army and what were some of the moving difficulties, maybe lasting experiences from the time you served? Sure. I joined when I was 17 years old, needed my parents to basically sign in order to join. And I graduated a semester early from high school and thought I was going to go play football in college and kind of enroll in the spring semester. And when that didn't happen, basically was working at Chick Fil A and Quiznos. And I had in my mind, look, this is probably not the path in life that I want. And so I knew I was going to go to college. I knew I was going to go play football in the fall, but I had this window of time and so I walked into a recruiting office and just basically was like, I'm assuming you guys need some help. And, uh, you know, they gave me the whole pitch and, uh, you know, give you a signing bonus, you can go jump out of planes and go do all this crazy stuff. I just said, okay, let's do it. This was, this was close to the 9 11. This was in 2006, about five years after. So what impact, I mean, do you remember 9 11? What impact did that have on your thinking about this? So I was, uh, in eighth grade, um, if I remember correctly. And, uh, I remember, uh, being in school when it happened and, uh, I walked into a classroom and the entire class, uh, somebody else's class, they were all talking to the teacher about something. The second that me and a couple other kids walked in and we got real quiet and the teacher was like, Hey, go back to your like, homeroom. And so it was just kind of a weird, like what's going on. Uh, and then next thing I know, they called all the students into the cafeteria. And this is back before, you know, every classroom really had a television in it and, you know, cable and all that kind of stuff. And so when we were there, they basically just said, listen, there's been this, uh, event that's occurred. All of your parents are going to come pick you guys up and, uh, they'll explain it to you. And so to, you know, a kid in eighth grade, you're basically like, what happened? And so I got home and, uh, and I remember talking to my dad about it and my dad basically gave me, you know, the, uh, the core American kind of talking points. Right. Look, somebody from another country came here and tried to kill Americans and was successful in doing that. Um, and to some extent he just said, and I'm willing to bet, you know, we're going to go back after them. Did that wake you up a little bit to the idea that there's evil out there that, you know, even just the idea of terrorism for many people that was, um, when it hits you on your own land, it's a, it really shakes up your mind in some sense, world war two. That's why world war two was fundamentally different for Americans than it is for the people like in Russia and England and France and, uh, in Europe in general is there's something about when there's a families, women, children dying on your own land, that's different. And that was one of the first times in America where like on your, uh, of course it's Pearl Harbor, but like, this is like in recent history, it's like, they hit us here, that was like a profound idea. I think America was very, very good at exporting the violence elsewhere for a long time. And, uh, there was this element of, uh, complacency, but also this element of, uh, um, you know, really just American superiority that doesn't happen here. Right. And, uh, I think that that woke people up, not only to, uh, you know, to the idea that other places around the world may not like the American ideals, may not like democracy and capitalism and, and that, but also, uh, maybe we aren't as big, tough and secure as we thought we were. Right. And so obviously I think you see the kind of the over rotation with a lot of the kind of security theater that came after that of almost psychologically, let's make our citizens feel like they're safe, even if the things that we're doing don't necessarily, you know, kind of change that apparatus. Uh, but on top of that, I think it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's I think that it really woke people up to, uh, extremism around the world. And, uh, I don't know if necessarily there was a change in the extremism as much as it just was an awareness thing, right. How, how many people, you know, kind of drew a line from, was it 92 or 93 with the world trade center bombing to, you know, deep levels of extremism and hatred of, uh, kind of the American industrial complex, probably not that many, 2001, a lot of people. And so I think that was, you know, again, as a, as a young kid, you don't understand a lot of this stuff. You basically just, Hey, somebody came here and tried to kill Americans. And so, you know, we should go fight back, right. Was kind of the, uh, the, the response I think that I had. What role did that have psychologically for you when you then in 2006 join the army, I mean, this is a very different joining the army than in the time when like it's more peaceful here, you're essentially facing, I mean, I don't know if you see it that way, but you know, there is a war on terror. And I know that people kind of, uh, criticize that whole formulation framework of thinking, but nevertheless, you are going to Iraq. You are going to Afghanistan, you're going to these places and are fighting these complicated, like, I mean, it's not even clear what you're fighting. Yeah. Well, I think that there's a couple of key pieces, right? So one, like what the actual most impactful data points, if you were, or kind of stories for me, uh, was the Pat Tillman story. So I played football, uh, in high school and it was going to go play in college. Um, and seeing, you know, this NFL player who basically just one day said, Hey, I'm going to go and do this instead, uh, and walk away. I don't know necessarily if it was a, uh, I want to pursue the same story right now. So he ended up dying. And so not exactly the, uh, the end result that you want, but I think it was almost like, uh, he made it okay. If you were on a certain trajectory in life to go take this detour and, and to go do it. Um, but the second thing is I was 17. You're pretty stupid when you're 17, you're pretty naive when you're 17. Right. And so, uh, I almost, um, kind of backed into the deployment because I signed up, uh, as a, uh, a reserve member. And so basically the plan was to sign up for the reserves. I was going to go to basic training, get all the, you know, kind of education and qualification, I was going to go to college and then after college, you know, maybe there's a chance that you will go and serve or do whatever. For me, I ended up getting deployed when I was a junior in college and we got pulled out of school. And so at 20 years old, uh, it's not exactly what you thought you were signing up for, right. Especially to kind of leave school to go do it. And then on top of that, uh, I probably had an advantage over most people, both on the entry to combat and the exit to, uh, kind of a combat situation, which that was football. So I always explain that, um, in hindsight, you're in a male dominated testosterone driven kind of combative sport where it's us first them. And, and, uh, there's training and, and, uh, you know, injuries and just kind of all of the things that go into playing a combat sport like football to now they give you guns, but you still have a uniform on still male dominated. It's just a little bit, you know, more serious in terms of the injuries and, and, uh, potential deaths and things like that, but also on the exit from that deployment, most guys I was there with, they're going back to being, you know, prison guards, police officers working at the lumber yard, you know, just kind of every day Americans. And so I had the fortunate ability to go back into, uh, kind of that combative environment, go back to play football. And so it was almost this like deescalation on the way out, uh, where they take your guns away. We still got a uniform, still male dominated, uh, still combative. And then eventually you're just a normal citizen. And so I think that in some weird way, I was, you know, very fortunate to kind of on the entry and exit, have that experience where other guys did. So what you were deployed to Iraq, were there any memories, experiences that changed you or in general, like you're probably a different man on the other side of it? How did that time change you? I think there, there was two main takeaways that I took, right? So one was, um, not a specific moment, but on multiple occasions, uh, I remember we were driving down the road and I would look and there would be a 10, 12, 14 year old kid. And if you've never seen somebody who literally has hate and disdain in their eyes, just not necessarily to you personally, just to the uniform, to what you stand for, it's all this stuff. When you see it, you see it right. And I always think of, um, if you've ever, uh, watched the movie, uh, 12 strong and in it, uh, they've got this Afghan, uh, Afghanistan warlord, and he's talking to a bunch of soldiers and he says, you know, you don't have killer eyes. You do, you do. And he's just like, he can just tell, right? He's, he's seen so many soldiers. And so I think that that was a, a memory on a number of occasions where I just saw young kids and I just said, they hate us. Right. And, and it's not you personally, it's what you stand for. But the really big event was, um, when you first get to these combat zones, a lot of times what will happen is, uh, you basically, your unit teams up with a unit that's leaving and there's a handoff and happens over a couple of weeks. And so you can imagine almost, you know, 1% of our team goes out with 99% of their team, then five, 95, 10, 90, all the way till it's 50, 50. And then eventually it rotates. And then it's majority of our team and a small number of their team. And so what a lot of people will explain is the two most dangerous times in war are actually the first two or three weeks and the last two or three weeks. When you first get there, you don't know who the people are. You don't know the terrain, you don't know, you know, kind of the local cultures and, and, uh, who to look out for, what signs, all that kind of stuff. And the last two or three weeks is you basically think you survived the deployment, you're looking forward to going home. So you become complacent, things like that. And so we made it through that transition period with no issues. Uh, but the literally the very first mission, uh, that we went out as a team, ourselves, a hundred percent, um, there was two separate incidents. Uh, one was we were driving in the middle of the night and, uh, what we think was a sniper shot at a truck that I was in, I was standing up outside of it, uh, along with a, uh, another guy. And that was kind of just a wake up call again of never been shot at before. Right. And so I'll never forget, uh, you kind of heard this whiz go by and the guy next to me was from a rural Pennsylvania. And he just said, you know, look, I've never been shot at before either, but I've done a lot of hunting, get the fuck down. Okay. And so, uh, we kept driving that night. Um, and, uh, later on in the night, uh, an IED went off, a guy ran over an IED, uh, who was at the front of the convoy. And when that IED went off, uh, again, I had never been in a convoy that had been blown up before, but the training kicks in. And so immediately every single person starts screaming out IED, IED, and they started looking and trying to figure it out. And you realize the United States military did a fantastic job training us before we went, because in that moment, nobody thought about anything. You just did what you had been programmed to do. Um, and so ultimately kind of through the end of that event, uh, there was a US soldier that ended up dying. He was, uh, shot in the head. And, um, when we got back to the base, uh, kind of after that entire event, I think it just hit us. We are at war. And if we make mistakes here, that is the cost of, you know, kind of those mistakes. And this was somebody who I didn't know. Uh, it was somebody who literally showed up, uh, kind of as secondary support, uh, for our unit and basically, uh, was there to help us. Right. And so it was one of those weird situations where, uh, you have this emotional connection because it's somebody who, uh, shared an event with you, but you didn't know them. Right. And you learn their name later and you understand that they have a family and they have young kids and all this stuff. And so again, as a 20 year old kid, you're kind of processing all this and you just realize like the gun I have in my arm, my hands, it's real for a reason. Right. And we better take this seriously. This is not, you know, let's joking around in kind of the barracks and, you know, all the things that you would expect, you know, guys you're doing in the army. So I think that was like the moment where I said, Hey, I'm going to learn a lot here. Uh, and I got to make sure I get home. And you snap it into the training, but nevertheless, I mean, you're somebody who thinks philosophically about this world now, right? You're, uh, very intelligent and things deeply about the world. So looking back, you mentioned hatred in the 14 year old kids eyes, there's death. So the way you kind of described this whole story is like training kicks in. This, this shit is serious. Like this is, uh, you know, there's a reason there's a gun in, in your hand. So there's a strategic element. There's like, you have to get the job done. There's a task at hand, but at the same time, if you zoom out, there's a kid who has hate for you, uh, some of those kids would probably, if they could, would kill you for the thing you stand for in the uniform. And then there's bullets flying at you. And then there's people that some of them you might already care for deeply are dying. What the hell do you make of that? Do you think about that? Does any of that haunt you? How do you think about the world having witnessed that? Yeah. A lot of times when we would talk about it, we were there. If I was that kid, I would want to kill that person too. Right. I would have hatred as well. Right. Imagine if in the United States tomorrow, you and I woke up and there was tanks rolling down the street from another country and they were basically imposing their rules on us, whether they thought it was the right thing to do or not, the soldiers were there and they were doing this, we would probably feel not so great about it, right. At kind of a minimum and at a maximum, we'd be really, really pissed off. We would fight back. And so what you don't understand when you're in the heat of the moment is why does this person feel this way? And so what's very weird is, well, what happens if a year ago, US soldiers came through, they got shot at, they returned fire and they killed that kid's uncle. You'd be pissed off. Right. And so you just start to understand, like we look at war very black and white. We look at it very much from a clinical perspective. We're going to go, we're going to go kind of invade somewhere. We are the most dominant military in the world. We're very good at invading. And we will crush wherever we invade, but when you're actually on the ground, what you understand is the humanity of it all. Right. And so what becomes very interesting is pretty much every veteran I know that comes back, they're some of the largest pacifists in the world. And I always revert back to Marcus Luttrell, who was a famous Navy SEAL, and there's a movie made about him and his story. He gave a speech one time that I saw and he basically said, listen, if you're a politician, your job is to be the diplomat, do everything you possibly can, not to send me and my friends anywhere, because when you send us, we're going to bring hell with us, right. And understand that is the business that we are in, but every single other person up until we get sent has a job to do to prevent having to send us. And I think that ultimately that's where you see a lot of kind of this generation that has fought in Iraq and Afghanistan that says, listen, maybe we shouldn't be running around the world being the police, maybe we shouldn't be going and invading all these different countries, because when you actually get to see firsthand what happens, it's just something that we should avoid at all costs. But if we have to go, or we have to actually send soldiers somewhere, understand what happens when that occurs. And you know, the United States is the best in the world at doing it. Do you think, I'm thinking about that kid with the hatred. Do you think there will always be hatred in the world? Do you think there will always be hatred? In the world, do you think, uh, from another perspective, do you think there'll be war always, is that a fundamental aspect of human nature or is that something we can escape? Yeah. So war, I think has like very negative connotations in terms of bullets and bombs and death and kind of just very morbid type, um, um, understanding. Conflict on the other hand, I think people look at and say, of course there will always be conflict, right. You just can't have billions of people all on the same planet without some level of disagreement, whether that's a disagreement of ideas, disagreement over physical, you know, geography, uh, or something else. And so I think conflict will always exist. The question is what form does war take moving forward? And so in my mind, you know, it's starting to look a lot more clinical, right? A lot more drones, a lot less soldiers on the ground, a lot more use of special forces and kind of these small, highly specialized teams rather than kind of big mechanical armies. Um, and then you get into like the information warfare and kind of cyber warfare and you start to understand that we're at war with a lot of people right now, right? Doesn't mean we're necessarily dropping bombs, uh, on their countries. Doesn't necessarily mean we're sending soldiers there, but on a daily basis, we are engaged in these kind of, you know, cyber battlefields. And so if that's where war starts to play out, um, it, one changes the tools and tactics and techniques that, uh, we need to arm our country and other countries will arm themselves with. But it also changes the way that we think about war, right? It seems, it sounds a lot less worrisome if I say, Hey, we're going to go to war with a country, but by the way, there's going to be no death. Right? Okay. Like that doesn't sound nearly as bad as, Hey, we're going to go send 10,000 soldiers and you know, some percentage of them are going to die on the battlefield. And then we're going to, you know, basically pipe back videos and articles saying that American soldiers are dying. Yeah. It does seem to be a fundamental difference between the, the Genghis Khan style, like if I would feel differently if somebody like hand to hand with a knife murdered my family versus cyber security, why I stole all their data, stole all to look at is well, if you have a finite supply of something, what ends up happening is people begin to value it more. And so in a world where dollars are infinite, and other fiat currencies are infinite, Bitcoin becomes very, very interesting, very special, and something that is very aspirational. And so I think that's where you're starting to see people say, wait a second, this is something where that finite, secure store of value is essential to wealth generation and preservation over a long period of time. And if Sam Harris is right, that free will is an illusion. This is really interesting to think about. Maybe time is a kind of blockchain, because you can't change anything. And then the physical space time of the universe is a ledger. So maybe it won't be Bitcoin that replaces gold, maybe it'll be time, once we crack open that, in fact, the universe is fully deterministic. So maybe that's what like Eric Weinstein is afraid of, once you figure out the theories of everything of physics, we'll be able to then start trading, create a market out of like the very fabric of reality. And that way break it. Well, if you look at infinite inflationary type currencies, you can't do that, right? Because it constantly is losing value. When you look at a finite asset, again, that has the provability of the actual finite element to it. Ultimately, the wealth is that marketplace. Yeah. And so, you know, I always kind of try to highlight for people, the top 55% of Americans understand something that the bottom 45% don't, they invest, right, the bottom 45% consume the top 55% invest. And that's why we have a wealth inequality gap. And it continues to get wider and wider and wider is because the people who are holding the devaluing assets, and saving are watching their wealth be devalued away. And there's arguments and controversy over how fast that's happening, but it's happening. The people who are holding the assets that have any level of scarcity, right, real estate may not be finite, but it's scarce, right? Art may not be finite, but it's scarce. Gold may not be finite, but it's scarce. Those assets continue to appreciate against the devaluing currency. And so when you then say, No, I have complete finite supply, with provability, and this transparency around it, where everyone knows how much is there and what where it's going. And now all of a sudden, you and I can transact back and forth that value. And it is a representation of time. Because what I can essentially do is if I gather or acquire more of that wealth, I then can apply leverage to my life. I can use machines, humans, or some other resources. And basically now free up my time. Yeah, and it's not fun about the way you are trading time. Maybe it's a little bit indirect, but maybe not. So just because I brought up Eric and you're on Twitter, I'd love to hear your opinions. I talk to him a lot. He seems to have stepped into the beautiful dance of human communication and the social dynamics that is the Bitcoin cryptocurrency community. Do you have thoughts on gauge, theoretic concepts, conceptualization of the world, or just Eric in general? He's got a lot of love in his heart, and he's got a grace in the way he communicates. But he's also loves to play with ideas and seems to have touched a sensitive point with the Bitcoin community. Is there anything you could say that's hopeful, inspiring about that whole dynamic that went down? So I don't know all the details. But what I will say is I've listened to a number of his podcasts, and him and there's a whole bunch of people like him. I basically put them in the bucket of they're an independent thinker who are courageous enough to speak their truth, whatever that may be. They are humble enough to revisit their ideas and say, I got this right, I got this wrong information change, I'll change my mind. Obviously, a sign of intelligence to be able to do that type of stuff. And I actually think that one of the most scarce things in our society are those independent thinkers who are able to do all this. Right? Speaking of scarcity. Yeah. And so to me, I put Eric and the whole host of other people kind of, if you look at like the intellectual dark web is kind of a label that's been used. They're actually some of the most important people in our society, because they're the people who are willing to stand up against the mass kind of thought process. They're willing to talk about things that others may think are taboo, right? They're willing to change their mind, which all of a sudden has become a bad thing rather than a good thing. And so when I see the exploration of ideas in public, I actually think that those are the people who are most open to the kind of VM it blowback as well. Right? Because that's part of what they're doing is that they're eliciting, hey, I'm going to throw an idea into the arena. If it doesn't get attacked, they actually may be more nervous than if there is some level of, you know, kind of war of attrition, if you will. And so what I've seen with a number of the people who have done this, everyone from some of the best, you know, hedge fund managers and kind of money managers in the world, all the way to what I'll consider some of the most intellectual people in the world is they play with these ideas. And they play with the ideas and they play with them and they put them and they all arrive at the same conclusion. And sometimes it takes a month, sometimes it takes years, but they arrive at this Bitcoin thesis. And what's so interesting about it is it highlights something that many people view as a bug. But I think people in the Bitcoin community view as a feature, which is that community. And so what ends up happening is when you have something that is as ambitious as creating a global reserve currency doesn't mean needs to unseat any of the existing ones, but become the global reserve currency of the internet, right, this digital economy, you need shepherds of it. And so just like a technology company wants to find those loyal fans that are willing to go out and market and word of mouth and, and kind of not only promote it, but also protect it. This technology that is this decentralized thing, which uses a financial incentive in order to elicit the buy in, not from a financial perspective, but from a mental energy standpoint, has built one of the most rabid, powerful and engaged communities on the internet. And what ends up happening is those people have thought more about these ideas, and actually challenged those ideas more than anyone else in the world. And so I've got a lot of folks who will just say, there's this guy Marty Bent, who will talk all the time about the Bitcoin critics haven't done their homework in a lot of cases. So they show up and sometimes it's super intellectual, lazy arguments, sometimes actually very well thought out arguments, you know, on the counter to the Bitcoin thesis. But ultimately, what ends up happening is you're talking to somebody who's an expert, they've been thinking about for five, seven, eight, 10 years, right? They've gone through every simulation you possibly can. And they show up with data, examples, and responses. Now, they're not always right. But they've just done the work. And so what I actually like about folks like Eric and others is as they're kind of going through this journey, they're incredibly smart, right? And they provide, or they apply a lot of intellectual rigor to some of these arguments. And so what it does is what does it do? It's a marketplace. It keeps people honest. Let me sort of make a few comments. It's kind of interesting. So you're exactly right. Maybe the blowback is part of the mechanism that actually develops these ideas and so on. I do want to kind of speak to a little bit of the toxicity that I've experienced in the Bitcoin community. I kind of see it, the Bitcoin community, I think you paint a really nice picture, which I kind of see it as an immune system that protects against sort of the viruses that are bad ideas. That said, the immune system can destroy a body, right? And the thing you mentioned about Eric and maybe about myself, and in general, just people exploring ideas, is there is a Dunning Kruger effect, which is when you first start exploring ideas deeply, you have an overblown level of confidence about like how much you understand. And that's actually the process about learning, then you realize you don't understand much. What I've noticed with the Bitcoin community is they're not as patient with the basics of the Dunning Kruger effect. Like if I step in and make declarative statements about Bitcoin, like I, you know, I read a long time ago, the white paper, like at the cursory level, I felt that I understand the technology, this is basic intuitions. You know, I didn't think about the social dynamics. I didn't think about any like financial implications and a lot of the deep, actually the ongoing innovations and all that kind of stuff. But I thought I understood that technology. And so I step in and make declarative statements. I think those are the first time you say, okay, what's the role of Bitcoin in the world? You start thinking about it deeply. And then you make statements. The toxicity that you get in those first few statements is really off putting to me. I'm somebody that tries to communicate love and live that with everything I do. And there is a level of disrespect that I've experienced, not directly just observing others, people have been mostly kind to me. And I appreciate that. But if you're going to criticize me about my exploration of ideas in Bitcoin, you have to also acknowledge that I'm a human being that got like a PhD in stuff. Like I did some hard shit that it could be in farming or it could be in whatever. Like I've lived life and I've really thought deeply and I really care. Like I know a lot of shit. And it's possible that I actually have a lot of ideas that you can learn from. Now, if it's agriculture, fine. Or if it's artificial intelligence, fine. Like I know what I'm talking about, about certain things. And I could be wrong about a lot of things. And there's like an exchange of ideas that makes that mechanism that you talked about more efficient. Sometimes when the blowback is too strong too early on, the development of ideas is just inefficient. And I'm not sure if there's a, you know, the way it was explained to me is that for so long, that community was like bombarded with just like bad ideas, like criticisms. They're just overly sensitive now to bullshit. They're like triggered by statements. They've heard it all before and they're like, oh, there they go again with the same old arguments. But that doesn't mean that you have to sort of, I guess, develop patience and so on. Especially when you feel like in my case that the person is coming from a good place, right? I don't know if there's something you could say that's positive about the future of this kind of overcoming this toxicity. I think there's a couple of trends that are all kind of coalescing here in these types of experiences. So one is when you look at a community, there's always a spectrum in terms of there's some people who over index on kindness and stupidity. And there's some people who over index on intelligence and basically just being an asshole. And then you get everyone in between. And so naturally, as we know, the extremist ends of any community end up being the loudest usually. The second thing is there is from the outsider view, like at the beginning of the exploration of ideas, it's very much a learning process. I don't know if I understand this or not, but here's ideas A, B, and C. From the internal perspective, there's a trillion dollars of value at stake and we must protect it with our lives. The truth is probably somewhere in between there. And again, the world's not black and white. There's this kind of more gray area that I think actually is where most people exist. The other thing that's at play here is I think the Bitcoin community understands the internet and internet culture and narratives better than almost anyone. And so you see this with kind of the just complete destruction of narratives with memes and just the visceral reaction and the use of things like Reddit and Twitter and YouTube, podcasts, just areas where I think a lot about if you are an upstart and you are going to go challenge the most well respected elite kind of establishment institutions in the world, if you walk in in a suit and tie and you say, I'm here to debate you with ideas, you're going to get your clock cleaned because they're going to trot out their lawyers, their regulators, their lobbyists, right? Like all this stuff. If you instead say, I'm going to meme you to death on the internet and I'm going to control the public narrative. You've shifted the power. The asymmetry of power is more symmetrical now. It's the ultimate insurgency, right? If you bring it back to the the conflict. Yes. And so when you think about this, you have to lean into the advantage that you have. And so what ends up happening is you and I would absolutely lose it if we saw JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve start tweeting memes. Yeah, right. It it would almost the the validation that would give to the medium and the even playing field that it would provide would pull these establishments down to the level of what is this upstart? But now what you're starting to see is that the Bitcoin community, even though there's some level of toxicity at times, even though there's this visceral reaction, sometimes there's even what I would call bullying or or or kind of outward projection of things, right? Even though it may be a small percentage, it'll happen every once in a while. What they do understand, though, is that these establishments are made up of humans. And what you can actually do, one of the best ways to pick apart an institution is to recruit from inside of them one by one. Yes. And so what you're starting to see now is I mean, I get the messages on Twitter and LinkedIn all the time. Hey, I'm a banker by trade, but I'm a bitcoiner at heart, right? And so what you're doing is you're essentially infiltrating the organizations, not in in physical, you know, population. Yeah. But with the ideas and with the philosophies, banker in the streets, bitcoiner in the sheets. Yeah. Okay. I like it. With that said, in terms of shitposting and memes, I gotta say like bring it on because I believe in terms of asymmetry of power, I believe in that love will save the world, not memes. Or at least good vibe memes as opposed to shitposting. It's an interesting battleground, though. It's an interesting battleground to think about. The other thing I would say, too, is one of the elements that's always kind of funny to me is how much of the entertainment is love, right? So, when you start to think about how many of the memes that are posted, for example, are for outsiders versus insiders. Yes. Laser eyes, right? Which seems absolutely ridiculous, elementary, and frankly, beneath anyone in any level of power or influence in the world somehow has congressmen and senators who have done it. Yeah. They're not trying to convince their colleagues in elected positions to become bitcoiners. Yeah. They're speaking directly internally to the Bitcoin community. Yeah, there's some sense in which, yes, memes is love. Even I keep hearing Bitcoin is love. They're trying to convert me. The one that you have to laugh at, right? Probably my favorite one out of all of it is I've seen on multiple occasions, you know, Mark Cuban a couple of years ago, Kevin O Leary, whoever, you know, wealthy people, billionaires, etcetera, and you have people on anonymous accounts who who knows who they are telling them have fun staying poor, right? It's just, you know, it's just, again, part of a community and I think it's a feature, not a bug. There's bad aspects to it at times but I do think it's a net positive. Yeah, just like the immune system. It does a lot of crappy stuff but overall, it's a major net positive. Maybe this is a bit of a personal question for me. It just added my own curiosity but I've talked to Ray Dalio a few times. So, Ray Dalio, I think was one of those people that took that journey, the Bitcoin journey. Do you have thoughts about him specifically about that whole world and about the journey maybe of others that are going through the same process because Ray is, at least from my perspective, I'm a bit of an outsider. He's one of the most insightful and deep thinkers about investment, about finance, about economics in general. Actually, about life. So, it's interesting to see him go on that journey. Do you have something to comment about Ray or just those kinds of people in general? So, if we look at what I'll just consider the legends of Wall Street in general. Yeah. Right? There's no denying that they're incredibly intelligent. There's no denying that actually, especially in the hedge fund world, they're some of the most open minded people in terms of they're willing to change their mind when they get new information. There's no doubt that they are historians in the sense of having studied financial markets and cycles over time. And also, one of the things that I really respect about all those guys is almost all of them are willing to put ideas out via various writings that they do and accept the public criticism, right? Whether it's Howard Marks, Ray or others, they will put this stuff out in public. And sure, there's a lot of people who are supportive and kind of are part of a fan base, if you will. But there's a lot of people who also think that sometimes they say stupid things. And so, putting that out takes kind of courage, right? I think Ray's actually the most fascinating though out of all of these kind of legends of Wall Street in that he understands debt cycles. He understands currencies. He, for a while now, has been all over and famously said, you know, cash is trash, investible assets, right? He kind of like just knew all of it. And for a long time, Bitcoiners have said, Ray, you understand the Bitcoin argument, you're just missing the last part, which is Bitcoin is the solution, right? And so, he was gold and some other ideas. But I think that he's a perfect example of when you are part of the establishment, people view you in a very static way as the leader of a part of establishment. But whether it's Bill Gates, Ray Dalio, or somebody else, each one of these people were innovators and challengers to a system. They were upstarts at one point. And so, it's kind of this idea that like if you live long enough, you eventually become the man, right? And so, you know, Gates is a good example, right? Warren Buffett is a good example. Ray Dalio is a good example, etc. And so, you have to give credit, I think, to Dalio in the sense of he kept an open mind about all of this and more so than many of his peers has continued to do the work and come around to this idea. And now, I don't want to know if I wanted to say that he's a Bitcoin proponent as much as he believes it is one of a portion of assets that can be a solution. And so, to me, when you start to convince those types of people, when it's Paul Tudor Jones, a Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, Howard Marks now even writing about it saying, hey, I was anti Bitcoin and put a ton of intellectual rigor into it. But thank God my son bought a bunch for our family, right? And kind of we've had exposure to it. I think what it does is more than anything, it's not going to convince somebody to go and take it seriously or go ahead and make an allocation. It reduces career risk. And so, if all of a sudden when Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller come out and say, hey, I own Bitcoin and here's why, every other investor on Wall Street now can say to an investment committee, well, it's good enough for Paul Tudor Jones, it's good enough for Stanley Druckenmiller. And so, I think that it's very interesting because Ray doesn't just represent Wall Street. I think Ray in some weird way represents this like macro economic investor. And so, some of those are in hedge funds and some of those people would be like CIOs at organizations. Some of them would be at corporations and some of them are just kind of retail investors. And so, you can see this kind of inflection point throughout the adoption of Bitcoin, right? There was infrastructure that got built. Okay, that kind of led to more adoption. There was certain individuals, right? Usually they were kind of technology oriented, entrepreneurial billionaires. They would buy it and come out and say it. Okay, that led to inflection points. You started to have some of these kind of Wall Street legends come out, sort of financial institutions started. And now, you're seeing corporations start to do it, right? Eventually, there's going to be a central bank that does it. And so, you kind of walk through that line and what you understand is like, it's the same thing every time. It's just somebody new, right? That path, right? That Bitcoiners journey, if you will. And I think that that is almost the beauty of it is if you short circuit the journey, it's almost like somebody doesn't appreciate it, right? If you take, let's say, somebody who's a young kid and you just give them a bunch of money and they didn't have to work hard for it. They don't really appreciate it. Well, and Ray actually has a book principles, right? And he talks about the hero's journey. So, he's like living it in some sense in terms of, you know, thinking about digital currency in general, like digital finance. It's one of the big transitions, transformations of our world in some sense. It's not just about money. Or you could argue that money is everything. I mean, it's like money isn't just the narrow definition of money. Money is really everything. And so, where you could argue that sort of cryptocurrency is like the base layer of this transformation to the digital space and everything else would just be built on top of it. I use a different word that I think is kind of closer to your world, which is it's ultimately automation. And what I mean by that is, you know, before 1970 or 1980, all the assets were analog. And so, when you have analog assets, physical stock certificates, physical bonds, right, physical deed to a home, you have to physically exchange them. When we wanted to increase transactions and increase kind of global finance and access, we took those physical assets and we created electronic QCIP assets. So, now we have in centralized databases kind of a file, represents the asset that's sitting somewhere in custody. And you and I can transact them a little bit easier, but still centralized. There's still some bureaucracy and, you know, maybe it takes two days to transact rather than actually mailing it across the world. Now, what we're seeing is a transition from those electronic QCIPs to these digital assets. And so, if you look at, again, just let's say money or currency, every currency in the world is going to be digital. You're going to have a digital dollar, a digital euro, yen, RMB. You're going to have decentralized kind of open source money like Bitcoin. You're also going to have private currencies like Facebook's attempt at DiEM and there will be others that will try to do this. And so, when you get everything digital, right, and I think that's the kind of the first step that everyone focuses on, the competition at the technology layer essentially goes away. You get some level of feature parity and sure, there's bells and whistles on each kind of implementation of a digital currency, but at the end of the day, the technology is relatively the same. And ultimately, what it will do is it will facilitate the adoption of digital wallets. So, you have to have a digital wallet regardless of what digital currency you have. Same with me, same with everybody else in the world. But what it does do is when you kind of push away and reduce the friction of competition at the technology layer, it moves the competition to the monetary policy layer. And so, when you get to that layer, now it becomes interesting because all of the currencies are the same except for this one right now and maybe there will be others in the future. But for sure, Bitcoin today and people may try to replicate in a private manner or something, but Bitcoin is kind of the only finite scarce digital somebody. And so, when you then have that pretty big difference in that competition at the monetary policy layer, it's actually not going to matter where you get paid. Right? And what I mean by that is like you and I both live in a single currency environment. I get paid in dollars. I historically have saved in dollars. All of the assets in my life are denominated in dollars and I owe my debts in dollars, whether it's taxes or in the private market. And I don't have to worry about foreign currencies. I don't exchange anything. The only time I would ever think about another currency is if I'm going to another country in their single currency environment. And in order to change or exchange my currency, I go to the bank or I go get ripped off at the airport. Right? Those are my two options. So, it's high friction to change between currencies. When the competition of technology is kind of innovated away, now I can get paid in dollars, these digital dollars, and with a click of a button, switch into any other currency in the world. And so, what ultimately happens is value and liquidity is going to coalesce around the best monetary policy. And so, you get in this very weird world where even if the United States says, hey, you're going to get paid in dollars, you have to pay your taxes in dollars. You're going to start to see people operate in a multi currency environment where they say, okay, I got paid in my digital dollar, click a button, I save in Bitcoin. It stays there or grows my purchasing power. Oh, I need to pay my taxes. Let me switch back into dollars with click of a button and pay. When you go to a multi currency world, it's not just about currency. It's now multi asset world. Because not only is the currency digitized, but that same technology is used to digitize stocks, bonds, and commodities as well. And so, today we live in a very fragmented financial world where basically I have a brokerage account, I have a bank account, I may have an alternative asset account, etc. When I can put all those assets in a single digital wallet, and I can then go from asset to asset without having to go back to a single unit of account. Like frictionless going from asset to asset. Yeah. So now what you end up doing is you start to open up the possibility for machine to machine transactions. Yeah. So today, if you and I write software code for two machines to transact with each other, they can't transact physical currency. And in many cases, they can't actually transact the electronic QCIP currencies or assets either because there's too long of a settlement time. So you can't get true automation, right? So the whole idea of the car's going to drive over a strip in the road and it's going to pay the toll, right? Well, that can't happen right now because literally the transaction won't go through, right? And so I always joke that in an automated world, it's like a CD ROM, but we're trying to take cassette tape player assets and put it in the CD ROM. It's just incompatible technology. Reference is nobody understands at this point. By the way, you need to update your reference. I probably do. It's like taking a CD ROM and trying to put an MP3 player into a streaming. But I think that the reason why that becomes really interesting is when you start to create these digital assets, now you open up the world of possibilities. So when new technology is created, you can do two things. You can either create new things the world's never seen before, or you can use it to improve the old world. Most people, because it's the easiest thing to think about, want to improve the old world. So an equivalent of this would be when the internet came along, a media company that had newspapers would say, hey, we should take a PDF of the newspaper and we should put it on a website. And now anyone in the world can go to this website and they can read the newspaper today. That was valuable, but it missed out on the ability to change headlines, to test, to put multimedia, to distribute it differently, to do all kinds of things that today we understand the internet really empowered. And so what I think we're about to watch happen is we're going to digitize the assets. We're going to put them all into these digital wallets. You're going to get automated technologies where machines can now transact with each other. And we're going to do simple things like why do we pay people once every two weeks? Why don't we just pay them at the end of every day? Or why don't I literally stream payments to you on an hour by hour basis based on the work you do? It would solve incredible economic issues in our country and in countries around the world. But historically businesses can't do this because of the technology problem. They can't keep track of it all. How do they pay everyone every day? How do they pay everyone every hour? You just can't do it. Yeah, it's funny. The vision of the future you're painting, it's kind of an exciting one. And it almost makes me sad looking into the future when we'll look back at this time. It's like how incredibly inefficient financial transactions were. Like the transaction of value of any kind. Like how to pay each other. Like there has to be processes. There's like payroll and all this kind of just the entirety of the transactions is just like painful. Almost all transactions are painful. And the companies that innovate to make the transactions a little bit more frictionless like Amazon with the one click purchase button like went out huge. But even that's really painful. It's actually really interesting especially when you start to move that into the space of data. There's a lot of people thinking about privacy and data and like can we put, can we like convert data into like money so that you can pay for how much you reveal to the companies about your own private data that can then be used to assign value to you so you can use the service for free if you hand over the data but there's like explicit transaction going on. So you can empower all those kinds of things that will just like fundamentally change our world. That's really, really, really exciting. One of the most interesting things to me is I invested in a company called Bridget and what they told me was they said $8 billion was paid to the top four banks last year on overdraft fees. So literally they took $8 billion from people who didn't have money in their bank account, right? And so when you dig into why is that a lot of times it's not that the people don't have the money. It's actually a mismatch of the payments. So what ends up happening is you get paid on the 1st and the 15th but on the 12th your Netflix bill hits, on the 13th you went grocery shopping, and on the 14th your car payments hit, you overdraft, and then on the 15th you actually get the check and then you're able to pay not only the overdraft but for the expenses that you have. And so something as simple as just getting paid at the end of every day immediately would eliminate some big percentage of those $8 billion of value that flows to large institutions on overdraft fees. Yeah and also I mean this whole process with overdraft fees and just many of the financial transactions we have to live through today forces many of us to be like accountants, like to understand the different mechanism of financial like the movement of money as opposed to you which is what we want to do as human beings operating in high layers of like providing services for others, of like following your passions and like working for others, like doing cool shit or you know basically providing value, exchanging value in the world and not thinking about the money. The money takes care of itself and then you see the results of it. So you're able to think in terms of money but not have to know how like the accounting works. Automation simply frees humans up to do more creative work. Yeah. Right? Yeah. Like that's it. Yeah. And what we Which is why you use the term automation which I think is kind of brilliant reframing of all of this. Yeah because ultimately digital technologies are merely the conduit to ushers into that world and I think the most fascinating part of this entire industry is people who are trying to figure out now that we're going to have these digital technologies how do we usher in that automated world faster and so there's people who are building all kinds of incredible things right there's literally some technologies where you can stream for paying for consumption of content. Yeah. Right there's I saw somebody recently who they basically said hey I have created something but it's not going to be released until everyone and almost like a GoFundMe type situation pays for it in combination then it gets unlocked and so when you start to think about this it's not only innovation on the technology front it's innovation around the way that we form capital it's the way that we organize resources it's the way that we build companies it's the business models right it's the application of those technologies all that stuff starts to change and go back to a 2007 that's when the iPhone came out Uber wasn't possible right I'm just going to lie like all these companies that weren't possible before when the digital technologies are kind of adopted on a global scale I think that we all myself included drastically underestimate how fast and how big innovation can be because it's just hard right like like we like to think linearly and that's not how the world works. Yeah I do find it kind of interesting it is NFT based but I don't think it has to be this this idea of I think big clout it's called or whatever the idea of sort of investing in individuals it makes me immediately think about investing in ideas so even just the words you speak having value and sort of if you have a frictionless like automated financial system then you could do a bunch of interesting things about what it means to add value to the world I mean I don't know if big cloud is currently an efficient representation of that but I am truly happy that however that thing works I'm just one notch above Vladimir Putin which is one of the that's like one of the bucket list items for me to to have a list where I'm one notch above Putin well what I think you're talking about here is important because there's historical examples you could invest in a patent in some situations you could invest in an organization that has an idea right so these are super inefficient given kind of the vision that you're painting in terms of like investing directly in an idea in a super efficient automated fashion yeah but that's how the technology evolution works right is it's really hard to do at first and then slowly kind of becomes easier and easier as technology is more prevalent the other thing that I think is interesting is this whole idea of investing in people if you really think about the origination of that is I would hire somebody right I pay you money and then you're going to create production but I take the lion's share and you don't now there's things like these ISAs these income sharing agreements where basically I will educate you on something train you on something I'll put up capital right and then over time you'll pay me back plus profits as some version eventually I don't know what it looks like but being able to get upside in somebody's success for having risk capital early on doesn't seem that far off see it in professional sports you see it in you know a lot of these things and so I just think that a lot of the focus right now is on the technology but ultimately these are ideas that are very old and have had lots of success and traction and we're just merely standing in the way of the evolution of these ideas with new technology and so it's easy to get caught up in the technology but when you really zoom out and look at it from the ideological standpoint and kind of the progress of humanity it's a foregone conclusion this stuff's going to happen it's just how I think the world is waiting and some of us are trying to create that future world which is like what are the applications of this technology that will transform the world and then you know I hate the term but killer apps like cool ideas that are implemented effectively at scale that transform the world and there's been a there's been a lot of different ideas popping up like the there's a lot of ideas about social networks that are built on top of the technology and all that kind of stuff so but let me actually drag this back down to something basic if a person wanted to buy Bitcoin store Bitcoin how do they actually do it yeah so there's a couple of different ways to kind of acquire Bitcoin and in every way you've got to exchange some form of value for Bitcoin right which is part of why it has values because you're giving up value so in one way is to exchange energy and computational power for Bitcoin so you can mine it you can literally take computer power that you have you can rent it to the network and run that software and then it will pay you a portion of the kind of daily revenue off that system and you can acquire Bitcoin in exchange for your power and your computational kind of contribution and that's the fundamental principle behind Bitcoin is the proof of work so I got a hundred bucks like I use cash app the you know they there's Coinbase there's all these exchanges like how do I convert my $100 to Bitcoin is there something disclaimer this is not financial advice and this is just us talking and just your opinions this do not use this to invest or take as financial expertise that said like is there something you recommend that's an easy entry point for somebody that's like hmm I wonder if I can convert this hundred dollars into whatever amount of Bitcoin what do you recommend what are the options so there's a lot of options I'm heavily biased I went out and I scoured the market looked at all of them I've invested a lot of money in a company called BlockFi that basically basically has financial products for crypto investors so you can go you can take dollars or other currency you have you can convert it through an exchange you can leave it on these interest bearing accounts you can earn interest just like you would earn in a traditional account but higher levels of interest because it's this new thing or you can withdraw it and you can put it into cold storage on a hardware device you can leave it in a software wallet there's kind of all these storage options so BlockFi is you know kind of the one that I'm biased towards because I'm sorry to interrupt so BlockFi is Bitcoin only or is it an exchange with other crypto it's got a bunch of different ones yeah they basically are agnostic to what it is but they provide kind of financial you know products to crypto investors okay so you mentioned a few interesting ideas that'd be nice for people who would not be familiar with it cold storage hot storage what does that mean so like I go to a website and I convert dollars to Bitcoin that's a kind of storage that's like online banking right what else is there so there's a couple of different things that you can do right and let's use the legacy system as kind of an example so if I want to get currency and I put in my bank account it sits there I have to trust that the bank doesn't go under nobody steals it all this kind of stuff there's insurance for it right there's all these kind of benefits in the legacy system to make sure that as long as I don't have you know millions and millions of dollars there I'm going to be protected pretty much if anything happens through FDIC insurance if I want to do that I'm taking that counterparty risk though so it's mitigated but there's still counterparty risk I'm counting on that bank but it is easier to move it around right if all of a sudden you call me up and say hey send me some money I can press a couple buttons on my computer and it'll send it to you if I want deeper level of security I can go and I can get the physical dollars and I can go and I can you know put under my mattress right and I can say you know what it's not gonna be as easy to send it to you immediately but if I really want to I can go underneath my mattress pretty quickly I can grab it I can get it back to the bank and then I can send you the money the third thing I could do is I could basically take those physical dollars out of the bank and I could go and I could go put it literally you know in a vault somewhere that I don't have control over that's behind 10 passwords and biometric scanning and like it's really difficult to even get to it right so if you can almost look at it it's like there's three stages of security that you could have in the traditional world the same thing is true in Bitcoin so you could buy Bitcoin on any exchange you can do it on BlockFi but you also can do it on places like Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, etc. Also Cash App. Cash App. You can do it on Cash App. I think I think they're still sponsoring this podcast. I'm not biased at all. So once you get Bitcoin on any of these venues you can leave it there on that venue. Now the trade off is you're taking counterparty risk so somebody else is responsible for the security and the protection of it in many cases big well known companies who have billions of billions of dollars of assets they have higher levels of security that's why they're well known that's why people trust them whatever but you are taking counterparty risk it is easier to quickly send to somebody so that so the trade off of like ease of use but counterparty risk is big and in the Bitcoin community specifically there's a huge thing of they really really have a keep for not leaving the Bitcoin there right for the obvious counterparty the second thing you can do is you can basically get it off of an exchange and you can put it in some level of kind of what I'll call a second layer of storage that second layer storage could be a hardware device that you can quickly just you know grab off your desk and plug into your computer and immediately use that's what they call like a hardware wallet or you can have some sort of software wallet right where it's not on an exchange but there is some level of in between between the hardware wallet and the exchange and the software wallet but the software wallet is connected to the internet yeah and so if you kind of think of it as like the exchange software wallet hardware wallet and then there's something called deep storage right or cold storage and this is you know literally there was a company called Zappo that would put things in deep cold storage and it was literally buried in a mountain right so like the odds that somebody's physically going to go there there's armed guards there's you know kind of all this type of stuff but again you're taking some level of counterparty risk because they have your Bitcoin and so the saying or the phrase is not your keys not your coins whereas my buddy Isaiah Jackson came up with he said not your keys not your cheese right in terms of sovereignty is important right and ultimately this goes back to kind of the beginning of our conversation around Bitcoin's ethos sovereignty right giving the power back to people you don't have to rely on this infrastructure in order to be able to participate in this monetary kind of economy what you are now able to do is you're able to use digital sound money you're able to keep control of it you and you alone are responsible for it so the idea of personal responsibility and then also you and you alone make the decisions as to whether you hold on to it or you use it without censorship right no one can tell you what you can do with it or can't do with it and so the purchase and the storage what I find is depending on who you are there's varying degrees of kind of concern or decisions that get made there and a lot of it comes down to personal preference the Bitcoin community though absolutely will over optimize for sovereignty and kind of hardware or cold storage I wonder if you can sort of comment on that because you have both sort of cash app and the BlockFi and Coinbase like you can store it that you can purchase and trade it there and store it there and so on but ultimately they're saying you wanna you know keep some of it there but you wanna move it to the hardware wallet and the cold storage of the hardware wallet is like you can disconnect this from the computer because ultimately stuff that's connected to the internet can be compromised can be controlled by governments and other parties and so on what are your thoughts about sort of practically speaking for maybe like a regular citizen what's what should be the role of the hardware wallet in their lives yeah so at the highest level I just think that like learning about it is important right so even if you only have five dollars equivalent of Bitcoin going and understanding here's how it works here's why it's important here's how I would actually withdraw from an exchange under the hardware wall like that alone just as an intellectual exercise is a worthwhile pursuit I think people should go do that actually go through the process of the steps so you feel like you can you can do it yeah yeah it's kind of like if I said to you you know hey we're gonna go buy an asset and you never went and you looked at it you never went and you know made a decision like sure maybe I did it or I didn't do it but like you didn't actually experience it right and so I think that that's important part the second thing is each person is different from a how they view this asset so there are some people who are speculating right there's three use cases for Bitcoin their store value medium of exchange and speculation and the people who are speculating they can't put it in deep cold storage because they need to be able to trade it right so what ends up happening is they fall in the bucket of like high risk high reward they're trying to trade they're trying to do all these things and sure maybe there are profits that they can generate if they're good at it but also they're introducing a lot of risk and so that person is very different than the person who says hey you know I bought one Bitcoin and I'm gonna save it for my child right and I'm gonna give it to them on their 18th birthday yeah and so when you start to look at this what you end up saying is what are you actually purchasing this for kind of like why are you doing it and then what's your time horizon and what ends up happening is more and more people in the Bitcoin community have longer time horizons one of the advantages to this community right if you look at the on chain metrics 60% of Bitcoin haven't moved from the digital wallet in which they sit in the last 12 months so even though it's appreciated hundreds of percent on the upside there's been lots of volatility a 50% drop in a single day in terms of US dollar price still doesn't move and so these are the kind of long term holders right these are the the iron fist or or as recently has become popular the diamond hands right they just they're not going anywhere and so I think that those people are much more likely to not have their Bitcoin on exchanges or in software walls they've got it in some sort of like highly secure environment and what and one in which they have deep sovereignty or kind of prevalent sovereignty and the reason for that is because they have that long time horizon they don't want to be kind of convicted around Bitcoin sound money macro environment all stuff and then they make a mistake because they trusted you know ABCD company and that counterparty risk ends up actually being you know fatal or or detrimental so again this is not financial advice disclaimer but let me ask so in terms of investment advice on Bitcoin so you see Bitcoin potentially not just the thing that you speculate over like buy and sell buy and sell buy and sell but it's something that you can just buy only and I believe I've heard that you own quite a large percentage of of your wealth in in Bitcoin and you're basically buying only and storing long term so that's something that's a legitimate way to approach Bitcoin in your recommendation go to other cultures so if we remove ourselves from the Western world culture of investing in gamification of financial markets and the financialization of everything let's say we go to the culture of India for hundreds if not thousands of years families basically saved their wealth in gold and in jewelry and in these hard assets with the expectation to pass it on to the next generation and so it would be blasphemous to sell the family's gold in that culture right you know your great grandfather gave to your grandfather your grandfather gave to your father your father gave it to you right and so in that culture the long term kind of holding is the default I think that what Bitcoin has presented again is a digital application of the exact same thing which is that while everything else in the world is being devalued that is denominated in a currency that is being inflated away whether it's quickly or not this finite supply this scarce asset ends up accruing more and more value over time right and so I think that for me personally I've got you know over 95% of my net worth that's in this 90 over 95% of your net worth there's two important caveats to this one is I didn't you know buy some Bitcoin in 2011 or 12 right and then all of a sudden it appreciated a bunch and it grew into that but from a cost basis perspective you know put $100 and now it's a ton of money instead what I did was I basically in 2018 saw Bitcoin from a US dollar price standpoint was falling and falling and falling and in December 2018 as I take about 50% of my net worth and convert it from dollar denominated assets into Bitcoin so it's a very kind of intentional decision with a very specific view on the world as to like why I was doing it I then essentially just let it sit there grow whatever until the spring of 2020 and when I saw the government step in and start to say hey we're going to really be aggressive in terms of interest rate manipulation and quantitative easing I then decided to go ahead and take basically the remainder and start to convert it as well so became very aggressive in doing that and so the way that I look at it is that's actually my savings right and so in some weird way if I said to you know what's the dollar worth you'd say well a one dollar bill is worth one dollar right Bitcoin to me I denominate my wealth in Bitcoin so I think of one Bitcoin is worth one Bitcoin not one Bitcoin is worth 60,000 or 55,000 or 70,000 right I denominated everything in Bitcoin when I make a purchase in my head I'm calculating how much Bitcoin am I spending right now right well guess what happens when you have a devaluing currency as the denominator doesn't matter right like your financial incentivize to spend or invest right to consume when you have an appreciating currency all of a sudden you become much less consumptive in your behavior yeah because you're actually trading off future purchasing power for the consumption today it's fascinating to think that if if when you move about this world you think in Bitcoin you behave differently is if you think in dollars that's really fascinating people but here's the thing is the last 50 years or so is actually the outlier in history most people used to think this way yeah it's only when a fiat currency got introduced that one argument the positive argument or perspective is there was an explosion in growth but really it's because there was a financial incentive to consume yeah right and there's nobody better in the world than the United States at consuming and we consume anything and everything and if you want to see a great example look at how big the coca colas are at McDonald's right you know you go to other places they don't serve them that big and so the other example though or the negative argument is we have to consume because if not you end up being the bottom 45% of Americans that help no investable assets and actually are just having their wealth devalued away so holding the dollars end up being a very bad economic decision and so when you then switch to this sound money you say wait a second why would I if today I can trade one Bitcoin you know back in October of last year one Bitcoin for 10 thousand US dollars why would I spend that if at some point in the future whether it's a month from now or 10 years from now I could trade it for something much much more than that you just become much more of a anti consumer and much more of a long term thinker yeah from the individual perspective that's pretty powerful I wonder I mean I think that's a interesting debate what's better for the long term economy no better for the growth of the civilization because capitalism is fascinating it seems to it seems to work pretty well there's this kind of like Eric Weinstein says that one of the problems is for the past several decades this whole economy society is built on the idea that we have to keep growing like it depends on that idea and it's a good question whether that's going to result in huge problems or if like a college student on a deadline the the dependence on growth will mean that we'll have to grow like the fear of death will force us to grow but I think there's a false equivalency between we're dependent on growth and then if the world was denominated in sound money we don't grow what I think ends up happening is we remove a lot of the society's bullshit yeah because right now when the money is free or the currency is free you come with all kinds of crazy stuff and people will give it to you right when all of a sudden it's really really valued by the population the decisions are better yeah you you have to provide real value in the goods and services you provide in order to get them to give it to you there's less room for corruption less room for manipulation that's and like that's not actually productive yeah definitely so you said you moved a lot of your investment into bitcoin is there when you look so you're a special human being in many ways so you're like a strategic thinker but you're also like a deep thinker about this whole thing but when you look at a regular club like me in terms of just investing and moving into thinking about cryptocurrency is there a strategy that you recommend what are the different options about investing into bitcoin yeah so i think that there's just uh kind of timeless advice when it comes to uh investing or or acquiring an asset in general uh dollar cost averaging is usually the the best way to think about it and what i mean by that is um most people don't just have a pile of uh currency sitting there right it's not like they have a million dollars sitting in their bank like what do i do with it uh that situation aside what happens is they trade their hours and their effort for currency and so as they get paid every two weeks let's say um the best way to acquire bitcoin without having to worry about timing markets and being a professional trader is to simply take whatever the percentages that you want and to buy bitcoin when you get your paycheck so if you get paid on the first and 15th of every month on that day you should go take you know let's say it's three percent of your paycheck take three percent go buy bitcoin don't worry about what the price is you should do that over time and the reason why that's important is um if in december of 2017 when bitcoin is at twenty thousand dollars it was the height of kind of this last uh big upwards movement you had taken all of your money and you had put it into bitcoin you would have had to wait almost three years just to get back to quote unquote break even in us dollar terms if at the same time you had simply bought then and over the next three years bought every two weeks you would have been up hundreds of percent three years later because what ended up happening was you bought a bunch of bitcoin when it was at 15 12 10 9 8 3 4 5 5 5 you know all the way back up on the other side and so dollar cost averaging is one of these weird things that uh it almost sounds too easy but what we find is in america we have a lack of financial education and so rather than try to be smarter than markets what most people are better off doing is just saying hey set your what's called an asset allocation plan i want 30 in stocks i want 10 in real estate i want this this whatever and every time you get your paycheck just think of it as a savings account right just put it in based on those percentages and don't think about it and over a long enough period of time what we find is almost anyone in the united states right there's exceptions but almost anyone in the united states can become a millionaire in their lifetime if they follow these plans and have that long term view and they allow compounding to work for them and so don't look at the price of bitcoin and all that kind of stuff just pick a specific time specific day that you just buy and you just keep buying that's probably good investment advice across any kind of assets it's like if you don't believe in bitcoin and you just want to let's say you just want to do the s&p 500 yeah you shouldn't try to time the market of the s&p 500 either right you should just every two weeks you should just buy some and over a 20 year period you're gonna end up buying it at all kinds of different prices but you're gonna get kind of a blended average and the more important thing is the compounding and the time in the market then did you buy it at you know two percent higher or lower than where you bought it doesn't really matter and buying often makes you i guess uh resistant robust to the uh to the volatility of the market or the volatility of bitcoin price and so on that said uh you know bitcoin price is volatile and you know again the argument i've heard is like everything that's going to be a lot more valuable in the future like if you look at the history like companies like apple like teslas now i mean but let's look at companies that have now stabilized right uh apple is a good example it's like volatile in the beginning and so the argument for bitcoin is like yeah this is the early stages because it's going to be a lot more valuable right now it's volatile and this is why you have to have these kinds of strategies to ride out the volatility of course everything that goes to zero is also volatile like the early days are volatile uh do you see like this volatility as like a feature or a bug or is this just like a way of life so amazon is the one that i know the numbers on in terms of early volatility uh every year since it has gone public it's had a double digit drawdown in that year uh the average is over 30 percent and one time it drew down over 95 percent sounds a lot like bitcoin right like oh wow this is crazy but it's one of the best performing stocks in the last 20 years if not the their money, stole everything they own, falsified their identity, all that kind of stuff that those are both traumatic events, but they do seem to be fundamentally different, but maybe that's actually very narrow style thinking, because ultimately you have to think about what is life and what's happiness. And, um, it's like the samurai thinking, I'm not sure what's more painful. If I take it to myself, like, I'm not sure what I would rather live through being stabbed, like to death, or having my identity stolen, all my money stolen, or maybe reputation destroyed, like with lies or something like that. That that's very interesting to think about. If you think about quality of life and all those kinds of things, well, one's finite, right? One's the pain ends and the other is kind of a long prolonged, almost torture. So it's physical pain versus psychological pain. It's really interesting to, it's really interesting to think about. And I think another key piece to this, which I don't have answers to, but, but there is an element of emotion and rage in the physical violence versus again, more of that clinical, you know, information warfare. And so, um, it's really easy to show a battlefield where there's death on both sides and bombs being dropped and buildings destroyed, um, it fits very well into propaganda for everyone involved, right, regardless of what side they're on, when you start talking about cyber warfare, how many times have we seen a big company get data hacked or information hacked and we all, you know, read the headlines, maybe throw a tweet out and then move on with our day and don't remember it anymore. And so it's just very, very different. I think, uh, in, in the, uh, motion and response that it invokes and people when they hear about it as well. Given the conflict, do you think people are fundamentally good? Are we all sort of like blank slates that could be evil given the environment or good given the environment, or can we kind of, is there some base that we can rely on that people, if left to their own devices will be good and trustworthy and honest, I think you have to separate out intention from action. So if you talk to some of the most heinous criminals in the world, they've rationalized their actions, and so you've got to ask yourself, what is the level of which they understood what they were doing, that they intended to be malicious, nefarious, um, and kind of do bad things versus the actual actions themselves. And so, um, even as a society, you know, if let's say, for example, you were to walk down the street and you were to murder somebody on the sidewalk, completely unprovoked, we would look at you and say, you are a, you know, a sociopath, uh, you have everything wrong with you and that is somebody that we do not want in our society, and therefore we will levy, you know, the extent of rule of law against you in order to protect society from you, right? And you become that monster, that beast, if in the same situation, somebody walks in your house with a knife and you murder them or you kill them, now we put you up on a pedestal as a hero, and those are two very, very different responses. They may be just as morbid, they may be just as violent, uh, in terms of the actual actions, the intentions, the way it's perceived is very, very different. And so I think that, uh, as a world, we like a very black and white, clean cut, you know, good, bad, uh, I think the world's a lot more messy than that. And I think that, uh, a lot of times when you look at intention, it's hard for us to tell what somebody's intention is, but I've looked at a lot of, you know, people who are both considered very good and also a lot of people are considered very bad and they sound very similar in terms of the motivations for their actions. And so I think that it's just a really hard problem that probably doesn't have a perfect solution or an answer. Do you give much value to the intention or do you think it's better to look at the results of the behavior, uh, as opposed to the, the underlying ideology? Underlying ideology, the underlying intention of, of the behavior. I think that intention gets at the question of like, are people inherently good or bad, right? Is I think that they're generally inherently good and the intention is driving towards the thing that they believe is the best outcome or the best thing for them to pursue the action. I think is where we spend most of our time focused on. Um, and frankly, we actually may be a better society or, uh, kind of kinder as a humanity to each other if we spent more time looking at intention rather than action. Um, but again, you know, if somebody walks down the street and murders somebody, uh, it's really hard to have a conversation and it may be inappropriate for us to have a conversation about intention versus, uh, any level of, of action, right? So you're one of the prominent, I would say even the faces of the, the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, that whole entire world was dive straight in and ask, uh, do you think, do you consider yourself a Bitcoin maximalist? I think that the way I really look at it is, uh, I work backwards off of what is the maximalism that I believe in and the world that I believe in is, uh, kind of an automated world that is run on these open decentralized protocols. Uh, and what we ultimately do is we return sovereignty and individualism and, and kind of, uh, personal responsibility and liberty, uh, to people over institutions. And what we end up doing is we end up, uh, kind of taking what has historically been a very analog or physical world economy and, uh, geographic rule. And we then kind of put it in the cloud and this digital economy becomes the prevalent way that we all, uh, conduct commerce, communicate, uh, et cetera. And so it's less about any one single technology to me, right? I think that it's pretty stupid for people to, um, almost in a way, uh, put an inanimate object up for, uh, you know, some sort of obsession, uh, to me, it's much more about the ideals, the ethos, uh, and the most rational, uh, and likely path to that kind of end result or that world that I think, you know, is at this point, just a foregone conclusion. So the distinction there, and maybe people don't know the terminology, maximalism is basically saying, I really think this is a good idea. Like, uh, you know, if you prefer a certain kind of diet, it could be a keto maximalist saying like, this is probably, maybe it's not a hundred percent, but probably the diet that's healthiest for humans kind of thing. In the same sense, Bitcoin maximalism is saying, you know, of course we don't know, there's a lot of uncertainty, but this particular technology seems to be the best representations of some set of ideals that defines progress in the future, but you're drawing a distinction between sort of, um, cult like obsession about an object of any kind, whether it's keto, uh, or, uh, Bitcoin, and just sort of believing that a technology is the best representation of a particular set of ideals. And you believe that sort of, uh, this moving into the cloud, uh, both the distributed nature of it, but also just the digital nature of it is something that's going to, uh, be a positive step for humanity. Yeah. I would even take maximalism a step further, and it's not just the kind of singular viewpoint of this is the best, it's also, uh, an element of it's anti everything else. Right. So, you know, take keto, for example, uh, the keto diet is not only the best diet. All the other diets are bad. Yeah. Right. And so it's, it's a very binary view of the world. Um, I think that what's probably most misunderstood about, uh, let's take Bitcoin, uh, as a specific example, is that most of the people who are labeled Bitcoin maximalist, they would be open minded if they believe that something else came along that was a superior technology or had a, a better, um, kind of probability of achieving again, that ultimate vision, I think where, uh, there's this controversy and kind of clashing of, uh, ideas is that the Bitcoin community believes Bitcoin is the best way to do that and has very specific arguments as to why the other things are not right. And so what ultimately ends up happening, which is very weird in the investing world, right, it's unlikely that you and I are going to sit down and you're going to like Apple stock is the best stock and there's no other stock. That's worth anything. Yeah. Right. And, uh, and then also it's very weird if you said to me, um, you know, this stock is worth zero and that's where everything that I own, I've put on a short on one single company, right? There's diversification. There's a much more kind of probabilistic thinking in finance in general. Uh, when it comes to this specific world of cryptocurrency and kind of digital assets, if you will, uh, is there's two main groups of people who are trying to build two very, very different things at the onset, but when you unpack it and you start to spend more and more time on it, you rise, they're actually trying to accomplish the same thing in two different ways. So Bitcoin is seen, I think, as a, uh, a digital currency, right? Kind of the idea that this is going to ascend to become the next global reserve currency, it's a programmatic kind of digital currency, but it's also a programmatic kind of transparent, um, money. And, uh, it's essentially just 180 degrees difference than the inflationary, you know, non transparent, uh, fiat currencies that exist in the world. You then look at kind of everything else, right? And you have a lot of smart contract platforms and various things that they're all going after at Ethereum with kind of the world computer best performing stock and so volatility is not positive or negative it's positive or negative compared to the position you're in so if you're long and it's volatile to the upside it's positive if you're long holding something and it's volatile to the downside you see it as a negative it's all about perspective with that said um another way that i look at this is every asset priced in bitcoin is down significantly so over the last one three five years the dollar priced in bitcoin has crashed 99 percent if you denominate stocks it's down like 80 85 if you denominate gold if you denominate bonds if you just go down the line real estate etc it's all down massively against bitcoin now you could argue that that's because bitcoin is appreciating in us dollar terms or you could actually argue that the world is repricing this asset it's doing price discovery on this asset and it's essentially comparing it's saying hey bitcoin verse this stock or bitcoin verse this ounce of gold or bitcoin verse you know this dollar which is more valuable and it continues to move up in the rankings in terms of the value that the world ascribes to this some of that's based on lindy effect just the longer it persists the more likely it is to survive some of that's based on like the underlying fundamentals of how much computing power the usage transaction volume things like that but some of it also is that as more and more people wake up to the fact that it's a finite supply asset that has a place in the world and demand increases people just naturally compete and ascribe more value to it and so the volatility i think all comes back to like what do you price your life in for majority people that's dollars and so you look at the us dollar price you get all this volatility the beauty of this is that 60 that doesn't move regardless of price upward or downward and movement those people aren't looking at the day to day price what they've basically said is i've acquired x amount of bitcoin and i'm just going to hold it for years and every time somebody's done that right if if uh you bought bitcoin at any point in the last 12 years and you held it till today you are up in us dollar terms now if we had this conversation 18 months ago couldn't say that so it's all about not only the acquisition price if you will it's also when are you looking at it right because there was a point in 2017 you could have said the same thing but in 18 you couldn't and so i tend to think a lot about um humans are really really bad at short term uh decision making because we're so emotional especially when something has a price tied to it and so it's in terms of our strategies and decision making we should be long term and have like a regular almost think like an algorithm that in that in that kind of way so i think you've tweeted that you believe that bitcoin has a chance of reaching 1 million i don't know what it is currently i think it's five the 60s which is incredible i think i remember when it was at least in the double digits i think i remember it was in the signal digits of a dollar so the fact that it's cross 50 is crazy uh but uh you're even crazier apparently thinking that it can reach a million so do you think it's possible for it to reach a million is there some kind of transformative effects we have to see first when might it reach a million like what are the signs that we would look for what's required for it to reach a million so let's just look at it from a macro perspective uh gold is a 10 trillion dollar asset and when you compare the technology of gold to the technology of bitcoin bitcoin is superior in every single way right it's more portable it's more divisible uh it's more verifiable it's more scarce on everything and so some people would argue it's a 10x improvement some people argue it's 100x improvement from a technology standpoint and so we don't need bitcoin to actually kind of um capture the full 10x or 100x improvement from a market cap standpoint if bitcoin simply captures 2x the value be a 20 trillion dollar market cap which would put bitcoin at about a million dollars right so kind of just from a macro perspective if you have a 10x or 100x improvement from a technology standpoint and you directionally get some value capture in that direction you're hitting around a million or more uh dollar price point can ask a quick question which is uh what's the current market cap for bitcoin uh the current market cap is right around a trillion just over a trillion dollars and you're saying gold is 10 trillion and uh sorry where did you get the 20 trillion 20 trillion would just be 2x gold market cap got it right so if it's a 10x technology improvement let's just say it only captures 2x the market cap got it right and so again if it was to capture just gold market cap kind of the equivalent puts you around 500 000 right so you can kind of see there's bitcoin so if you capture the entirety of the gold market uh then it would be value of a single bitcoin uh the price of a single bitcoin would be five hundred thousand dollars okay to reach a million it would be double that that's what the 20 trillion comes from correct got it so if you then say to yourself okay how does the uh the pricing um kind of cycles work right or the boom and bust cycles gold is a very um kind of linear type supply schedule meaning that uh there is a certain amount of gold that comes out of the ground each year the interyear variation in that incoming supply is not much right maybe there's an extra mining company that gets set up or a couple of them maybe one goes out of business but for the most part the kind of inflationary uh increase to the supply of gold is pretty stagnant uh year over year bitcoin has a very unique feature which every four years there is a programmatic supply shock meaning that uh in the beginning 50 bitcoin every 10 minutes was introduced into the supply after four years of that happening every 10 minutes it was cut in half so on a in a single moment it went from 50 to now it was 25 four years every 10 minutes 25 got cut in half again to 12 and a half and then recently in may 2020 got cut to 6.25 when you have an asset that is determined the price based on supply and demand you normally have two inputs to the equation what is the supply and what is the demand in an asset like gold or a stock or anything else we have to do our best guess at the supply both the existing supply and the incoming supply and do our best guess at the demand and we're actually pretty good at this a lot of times in terms of directionally saying it's going to go up or down and here's kind of some price point milestones bitcoin's unique in that there's 100 verifiable proof of the existing supply the total supply and the incoming daily supply so we know 100 i can show you on the actual blockchain or in the code that there's 21 million bitcoin and that's all there will ever be i can show you that there's 18.6 million give or take bitcoin that actually are in circulation today right and i can go all the way back to every single transaction that's ever occurred since january 2009 and then i can show you on a daily basis that 900 bitcoin a day are coming into the circulating supply and so when you have 100 confidence because you can prove the supply side of this equation you can hold it constant i know with 100 accuracy the supply side so now i've reduced the mathematical equation that i need to do to determine price movements to a 50 reduction i only have to worry about demand i don't have to worry about supply and so when i look at demand i can do all kinds of things i can take the demand over the last 10 years and the growth and just extrapolate it out i can increase it i can decrease it whatever but what you find is that these supply shocks lead to significant price appreciation as the asset gets repriced because there there's a supply shock to and so probably the best thing that i've done over the last couple of years was in 2019 i started to talk about the idea that we were going to have both a supply shock and the demand shock in 2021 or i'm sorry in 2020 i didn't know when this bull market that we were in was going to end nobody knows right it's impossible to time these things but you could tell that we were kind of at late stages of a cycle there was inverted yield curves there was rep uh gyrations in the repo markets a lot of ceos leaving their jobs you know all this kind of stuff and all i said was at some point when the market turns over the government's gonna have to step in we were addicted to stimulus they're gonna have to manipulate interest rates down and they're gonna have to print money i had no clue that there was going to be a global pandemic that they were going to have to step in in such an aggressive way and move rates not down but down to zero and that they not only were going to print hundreds of billions but they could print trillions of dollars but the framework that i used to think about this was when they do that everyone is going to run to store value assets they're going to run the gold they're going to run the bitcoin etc and right as they do that it appears at the same time there's going to be this supply shock so you're gonna get a supply shock and a demand shock that are both positive for the the price i called it rocket fuel for bitcoin well it happened and here we are i now look forward and i say okay we are likely going to see a hundred thousand bitcoin a hundred thousand dollar bitcoin this year or at some point i don't know when it happens but we're moving in that so you think in 2021 we'll see a hundred thousand that would be uh my most conservative view uh i i've said a hundred thousand dollars since 2019 and people thought that was insane and crazy and all stuff now i'm the conservative guy in the room because i stick with a hundred thousand dollars and people are saying you know multiples of that number here uh so we'll see what happens but but i think that there's still a lot of room kind of to run from a us dollar price standpoint what is on the horizon is in 2024 we will have another supply shock and so that's what i think will carry us to the million dollar bitcoin from 6 to 5 to whatever 50 reduction yeah yeah and so that's what i think uh well basically when we get that that next supply shock that'll carry us up over a hundred or over a one million dollar bitcoin price which if historical examples persist and again sometimes it's hard to use historical examples to look at future events um but if that happens we would see a million dollars of bitcoin by the end of 2026 after that wave so 2024 basically is the supply shock and within you know 18 to 24 months you would see the uh the kind of top of the next market hopefully without a coupling to the net to another pandemic yes we we would like to do all of this without a public health crisis so that would take it to 20 trillion you don't have to compare it to the dollar essentially in some sense that the dollar could also lose value i mean there's a lot of kind of dynamics at play here now but like fundamentally there's going to be a huge move uh in your prediction of uh value into into bitcoin i mean that's a fascinating world uh to think about uh i mean but i do have to kind of ask you about the whole space of technology there because we're talking about the value of security we're talking about the the future which bitcoin will be at the center of but from my perspective of thinking how like i and others can build technologies on top of this kind of decentralized world i'm thinking about different different technologies out there different cryptocurrencies out there ethereum being one but there's a lot of others so i'd love to get your sort of ideas about some of these but so first let me ask you about what the hell is shit coin is this connected to uh to our previous discussion of the meme uh this shit coin cover basically all coins that are not bitcoin is it uh uh mean is it a beautiful is it's a mixture of both as with most things in life uh depends who you ask um the uh most um kind of enthusiastic and uh uh parts of the bitcoin community shit coin is anything else right kind of if you ascribe to kind of a maximalistic view of the world shit crime be anything if you look at people who i would say are bitcoin proponents uh yet see value in other things shit coin may be the bottom half of the other things right so i think again it's really important kind of who you ask is how you'll get that answer so there's tiers and the way you divide those tiers might be different depending who you ask ultimately what it is is it's a meme yeah and it's used to uh articulate the idea that whatever you want to put in that bucket has no value so shit coin right are coins that have no value yeah uh what is fascinating about it and i think that again speaks to the power of the bitcoin community is uh there was congressional hearings a couple years ago oh no and at one point uh a congressman from ohio warren davidson who uh who's definitely uh open minded and excited about bitcoin asked a an individual on the congress floor uh during testimony to uh talk about these other coins and at one point basically read into the record the terminology of shit coin he said the word shit coin uh i can't remember if he said it first somebody else did or if uh the other person did and then he uh um you know repeated it that's awesome but he definitely he was trying to get that read into the record yes uh for sure and so uh you know you can imagine one again the meme speaking insolently to the bitcoin community was you know made him very uh very well liked uh but also too was um it does go back to this idea almost of uh if you and i sat down with 10 ceos and we interviewed each one of them and then we went in a room and we deliberated and we said we have to pick the person who's going to be the most successful one of the inputs not all the inputs but one of the inputs would be who's the person who we believe has the best ability to raise capital recruit people and tell a story to the world that will get them to follow and so somebody like elon would probably be the best example of this when you have decentralized products you have no kind of leader right in the sense of somebody who is financially ascribed to be that leader and kind of the executive decision maker so what you have to do is you have to look at these technologies in these communities and say well which volunteer teams or which technologies have been able to coalesce these groups around it and in some way build the same level of engagement and protection and things like that and so you actually get tribalism but you also get things like shitcoin because what it does is it's not only a um kind of verbal attack towards uh others it's a rallying cry for internal what's so funny is that it was started with the bitcoin community talking about everybody but now you've seen adoption in other communities who use it you know basically say well we're not a shitcoin it's the it's the next guy yeah i mean the meaning to be honest it's it's one it's off it's sometimes misused i think like with anything it's like people adopt memes that used to be brilliant or still brilliant and they're just not good at using them so they become mean uh but when you do with with grace it can tear down an argument and at the same time have like love and respect underneath it i mean it's a beautiful dance they have to be good at like you know people just can suck at communication and even uh like even a powerful weapon like a meme in the wrong hands just uh fires in a way that doesn't get anything done but this is like a war of humor and memes it's kind of fascinating exactly like you formulated that there's a symmetry of power so you have to have guerrilla warfare in this internet game especially when there's no leader like you said in a distributed culture i would say here that is um is really important i think is from a society standpoint we've become very soft and very kind of coddling and not in um not in a way that's like i think people take this argument like too far sometimes but what i mean by that is um it's almost like if you're the person who holds somebody accountable you become the bad person right if you're the person who um says hey you know that's wrong you're the bad person right and so in a world where i think in um this kind of influencery you know all positive if you have any negative you know feedback or constructive criticism like you're the bad person uh it's the ultimate echo chamber right and so i think that what the bitcoin world does in in some crazy crazy way to look at it is bitcoin is ultimately about truth not about narrative not about feelings or emotion it's math yeah you look at a blockchain and you can prove something or you can't and so naturally people who are attracted to that have a very similar approach in life yeah right they say hey you made x claim prove it and as you can imagine you know a great example is like the financial media meets bitcoiners and it's a bloodbath right in kind of the the arena of ideas because what do they do the financial media is used to the soft you know opinion pieces etc and bitcoiners show up and they're like uh here's data point a b and c here's example one two and three and you're wrong and then all they yell and scream about is like uh i'm wrong i'm wrong i'm wrong like you can't say i'm wrong and they're like nerd like disprove what i just said and so you get in this like very very weird it's fascinating it's a fascinating battlefield but i i do want to say it's i've been watching this it's kind of interesting i think that the pursuit of truth like tearing down bad ideas can be done with grace and to do it with grace requires a lot of skill like what people don't realize about disagreement they think that disagreement is easy like they they see the the the lies or the inaccuracies in the statement and and they just think they can say wrong uh yes you can say that but if you want to be effective it requires great skill like you look at i don't know um a beautiful uh verbal shit poster which is Christopher Hitchens right it requires a lot of skill through your words to tear down an argument to criticize and to take a step towards truth what i'm disheartened by internet culture like the negative side is people don't put a lot of effort in their tear downs like into your shit posting into your memes you should put effort and see it as a skill that you want to if you want to be a part of this culture you want to uh get good at it like any skill it's the 10 000 hours like get improve deliberate practice self criticism all of those things uh just because you're anonymous doesn't mean you won't get deep joy and actually have an impact on the world if you get good at shitposting but but i think this is really really important right because you're right in that uh it's all about intention versus action if your intention is to uh tell somebody that they are wrong in an effort to get them to see the truth yes that's very different than if your intention is to tell someone they're wrong and hurt their feelings yes right and so when you can unpack intention and action you really quickly can tell what somebody ultimately is trying to accomplish i also think that one of the craziest things that i've seen play out is uh memes when i use that term i'm not just talking about like a static photo right when i'm talking about these elaborate uh kind of edited videos and kind of all this stuff um when done right it is uh the most articulate way to deliver a blunt message and it's done in such a way that is humorous and entertaining yet really hammers the point home and so it's a skill set that many people don't have i don't make those i'm assuming you don't make them either right i see them i share the ones that i like right uh but it does take practice and you can tell look there's people who are fantastic meme lords right and there are people who absolutely suck at it and it's like anything it's just how good are you at communicating and uh i've heard the idea a bunch of times so i don't know who to kind of credit for it but uh whether it's emojis it's gifs it's memes whatever this is the extension and evolution of just hieroglyphics right yeah like like we have been doing this for literally centuries it's just that now we're doing it on the internet you can press a button and go to millions and millions of people immediately uh but speaking of memes what the heck do you think is up with elon musk talking about dogecoin a lot sort of uh from the cryptocurrency community i from i've been talking to a lot of sort of technologists i guess and reading papers on cryptocurrency it's like nobody really sees dogecoin as a revolutionary crypto technology a lot of people talk about it's security issues there's a bunch of issues it has nevertheless you did say that money is the kind of social construct right and uh elon musk's combination of humor and brilliant engineering in the various companies he runs combines to create a kind of value and excitement behind dogecoin it's like um what is it he says uh that the most amusing outcome is the most likely kind of idea which sounds silly but there could be like profound truth to it it's like what do you make of dogecoin philosophically or technically is is it possible that dogecoin will overtake bitcoin and run the run the entire world i can't even because it could happen it could happen but what uh if there's any serious way to answer that question well we have to start with uh techno king of tesla yeah and master of coin as they are so articulately called in the latest scc filing he officially changed his title techno king yes no king of tesla and the cfo's new uh title is a master of coin and so uh when you have a sense of humor yeah and frankly uh a level of uh self confidence and uh an element of uh an appreciation for irony in the world dogecoin is actually one of the least crazy things that you could talk about when you're willing to go to techno king of tesla master of coin uh and all this stuff and so i think that elon uh doesn't get enough credit frankly for his understanding of internet culture understanding of memes and understanding of frankly human psychology and marketing and so in some crazy way every time he talks about dogecoin it's a rallying cry for an entire generation of kids it's a rallying cry for an entire industry uh in terms of cryptocurrencies and digital technologies but this is the flag yeah and this is the thing that he can yell and scream about and tweet about without worry of punishment so he could be talking about bitcoin he could be talking about cryptocurrency but that's not going to be uh as beautifully humorous and whatever the hell internet culture is as dogecoin he's finding the right language he's speaking the language of the people of the of the in the digital age if you want to reach weird people yeah you can't be serious and most people are weird the masses are weird so he's speaking to the masses yeah and the techno king and even further than that i think is he essentially is um he's using dogecoin as a way to say i'm doing this because i can yeah he couldn't do it with securities he couldn't do it with certain types of other assets right like i almost look at it as like a venn diagram what's the thing that a bunch of people know about care about thinkers funny whatever and also overlay that with the things that like he could actually talk about they won't get in trouble for that's a big f you to the sec i could see the the people just freaking out i i mean i love it but um i i don't know if i would have the guts to do it myself but i i think he's an inspiration to a lot of us to be like well maybe you should grow the guts when you're the techno king you can do whatever you want right and i mean that's something to aspire to is to be the techno king in your own little world if you also think about it in the sense of uh when you're somebody on a mission to create interplanetary life yeah when you're trying to solve a or put a dent in the climate crisis or create electric vehicles and be the first american company and you know however long frankly the sec or other things in your life that just don't you don't ascribe that much importance to compared to those things they're almost uh nuisances and that's scary i think for shareholders of a company when the person that you're trusting to lead you to the promised land and create shareholder value doesn't put value on certain things but at the same time i always look at it as a tug of war how much of the actions of what he's doing and calling attention to actually change the way that regulators lawmakers politicians countries whatever act he may not be able to say do acts i'm the techno king and they go do it but with every step he makes he changes some of their behavior and so i think that it's um a really kind of game of like 3d chess that frankly i'm not privy to right i'm kind of watching from the sidelines and uh figuring out alongside everybody else but i also don't think that it's just elon uh bought a bunch of dogecoin and tweets about it because he thinks he's going to a dollar and he's gonna you know make money right like i don't think i don't think it's an economic argument as to why he's so interested in i think it's much more uh it's almost like meta message for a lot of other stuff yeah he's kind of trying to break apart internet communication from first principles like it does so many other problems it's kind of fascinating to watch i know he's been uh he's he's taught me quite a bit about communication and uh at least for me it's been liberating to not give a fuck about the old school way of things i've been always bothered by a place i deeply admire which is mit but there's problems the bureaucracies and hierarchies that hold back innovation brilliant minds and in that sense doge is a kind of fu to the system that's kind of positive but also uh kind of uh but it was also an fu so in that sense i think elon has a perspective on the world that's similar to bitcoin folks which i really like which is like thinking long term it's how visionaries think is like how will if i take these ideas what and the ideas hold true what will the world look like in 20 30 50 years and think about everything in that way yeah i like uh bezos's view which is uh is essentially how do you minimize regret how do you accelerate your life mentally and go to 80 90 100 150 years whatever we end up being you know fortunate enough to live to and then look backwards yes and say this decision that i'm going to make i have two options which one is going to be the one that i least regret and if you continue to make decisions that way one you have that long term view kind of built in because you're working backwards uh two you are ultimately going to optimize for uh minimal regret but also three is even if you only look forward 10 years that's much much further than most people do and so it gives you a significant advantage and i think that um bitcoin has kind of this like um you know proxy for time as we talked about uh interplant uh planetary travel where there's multiple steps from creating a reusable rocket to landing it to you know all this stuff all the way to simple things just like if you're simply trying to figure out where the world's going to be 30 years from now you know bill gates says that we overestimate what we can do in one year underestimate what we can do in 10 well to me it's a um kind of degree of uh mistake if you will 10 years maybe you're off by 10 percent well if that line of progress continues 20 years you may be off by 100 and 30 years you may be off by a thousand percent right like almost the further you go out the more inaccurate you become and so i think that people who want to iterate their way to success right that's a common thing in like the startup world end up actually following kind of the breadcrumbs to where the world is taking them but people like an elon musk a jeff bezos a jack dorsey all the way down the line all these innovators they actually say to themselves there is a point in time in the future where there's a world i want to construct and then they go and they construct it regardless of the short term iterations and incentives it is just they're driving towards that point and i think that it's this whole idea of having this like you know kind of set vision and this uh refusal to kind of move or budge off of that that's what makes them special one of the things that garnered a lot of excitement in the crypto community is nfts i i have no idea really the depths the fundamental technological philosophical depths of the second of this technology whether this is just like a little bit of a fad or there's some deep lessons to learn whether it's bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general about it do you have thoughts about like the long lasting fundamental aspects of nfts i think there's probably both things happening fad and things to learn right and um if we just start with like what is an nft it's a non fungible token meaning that um there's no fungibility and fungibility is a fancy word um i always describe it as if i took a hundred dollar bill and i put it on the table with a bunch of the hundred dollar bills and we mixed them up and i just grabbed a hundred dollar bill and left i'm no worse as long as they're all you know uh official hundred dollar bills because as long as i have a hundred dollars i have hundred dollars i don't need that exact same bill back so that means that those hundred dollar bills are fungible non fungible would be like art if i took a picasso and i put it down on the table and you brought three artists that no one's ever heard of before and we mixed them up and i just took any random piece of art it wasn't the picasso i lose because the picasso is really important there right so non fungibility is important in art what these non fungible tokens essentially are doing is they are uh creating scarcity and originality in a digital environment and what i mean by that is um take a music file if i had a music file and you wanted it you said send it to me i press send it essentially creates a copy and you get one music file i get another we don't care you can listen to music i can listen to music we're super happy if i instead though have a digital file that entire premise is based on scarcity and i hit send and you get a copy and i keep the original or you get the original i get a copy there's a problem and so ultimately what i think is playing out with nfts is it's a technology regardless of where it plays out from blockchains or uh what in communities or environments that just brings true digital scarcity to the internet and so naturally what people do they look at the legacy world and they say well what's scarce there that has value how do we bring that to the digital world so art is a perfect example right and you know frankly last year i started to look at this because it felt like this was going to be really really big and the conclusion i came to was just as bitcoin is going to be bigger than gold right the digital application of something is going to be bigger than the analog application the same thing's going to be true in art the digital art world is going to be bigger than the traditional art world people think that sounds crazy at first until you start to realize it's very very similar the art is more portable it can be divisible right it's got a larger demand market in terms of the internet rather than an auction right all this kind of stuff when you display it it can have motion and music and all of these aspects to it that are better than the traditional art what the traditional art market has that the digital art market has not had is the narrative narrative based world scarcity kind of in digital sense and so what i think the entire world is going through right now is an exploration of how do we use this technology to create new things frankly we're not going to be good at it for a while and so the only place i've really focused on is digital art itself and i've always been interested in art but i wasn't going to go buy a painting and hang it on the wall right in the sense of uh that's how i was going to store value what i find fascinating though is that i now can take that concept which most of the wealthiest people in the world have a significant portion some you know some people have 20 percent in terms of you know number of billionaires 20 percent of their wealth is in art and you can bring to this digital realm which is much more um kind of natural to a digital native and so the best way to describe the importance is imagine a serial number being placed on something take the eiffel tower the only eiffel tower that has value is the first one every replica of it regardless of size location you know who made it where they sent it they have no value eiffel tower 001 is the most important and so i think that's ultimately what we're starting to see here and what we're looking at is probably one percent of what it's going to grow into so you're you're bullish you're saying it could grow into something for one percent it could grow into something significant like all the kinds of different applications strip away all the applications right now and just think about is digital scarcity going to be important on the internet moving all the things that are scarce in the physical world into digital space us trying to figure out which things can be moved and not and also there's things in the digital space just like you're saying that don't exist in the physical world that might also benefit from gaining scarcity like you know people are i guess creating nfts out of like tweets or whatever so like you're you have you have a fun twitter account you know you could say like you could put value to a single tweet and then be able to invest in it and trade it and buy parts of it and all those kinds of things you know you can invest in people you can invest in you know art can be defined broadly as any kind of creation right and in some sense this whole idea of scarcity can overtake the entirety of the digital world it can like consume the all of the markets we see as financial markets and just turn everything into a market well so if i take you on like a i don't know 10 year fast forward yeah and i paint a picture of uh something today that seems absolutely insane but there's early signs that people are building this and let's just give them the benefit of the doubt that some of the early iterations will work and some of or most of them won't there's a world where you and i are participating in a digital economy in a virtual world where uh whether it is a piece of art it is a digital sculpture it is a digital skin from a video game it is a digital good that we purchased somewhere online and we bring it and we display it in a digital museum or a virtual museum and so now all of a sudden you can charge people for entry you can consign digital goods it's the replication of what happens in the analog world now just in digital and when you do that what you do is you take the addressable markets of these assets or these mechanisms and they explode in the digital realm and so now all of a sudden how fast does the human race accelerate when it comes to human production intelligence learning all in the digital output it's just if i said to you 20 years ago i'm going to give you a global education that means i'm going to take you and i'm going to physically move you to geography after geography after geography it's going to take time it's going to take resources and ultimately it's going to take lots of effort if i now said to you hey i'm going to transport you in this virtual world to multiple geographies but you're going to experience it in this virtual world and you're going to have digital goods that you can take from economy to economy or from location to location all of a sudden you may get maybe you get 90 of the value you don't get 100 of the same value we get 90 of the value but you can do it at a much faster pace and so in the six month period you've actually made three times the progress than you would have if you had to do in the physical world so that's where i think we're heading so there's digital art being displayed in the digital museum and people are being charged for access and perhaps we plug in our senses which means we start to operate more and more in a virtual reality augmented reality virtual reality way with this digital world and increasingly going to this world basically lived most of our productive and uh social lives in this digital world uh and increasingly essentially create a simulation where the biological basis is just there to say sustain the brain that's used to operate in the in the virtual world uh taking us back to the original when we started talking about war i wonder what conflict looks like in that world that uh the people who are born today maybe will be fighting wars in the space in in that museum world in that digital world remember what i said we're moving from a world of conflict surrounded and determined by bombs bullets and soldiers to a battlefield that is determined by war of information and cyber capabilities and so in that virtual world is it about death and destruction of human life in the physical analog world or will it become more important to attack or defend virtual property and virtual life and you know some level of virtual sovereignty in my opinion the latter is more likely and so what you start to understand is well what do you truly value in your life is it the physical analog materialistic consumptive goods or is it virtual and in many cases something as simple as the ability to connect with somebody it's really important and so one of the most disruptive combative violent things that a country may do to another country in the future simply take down the internet and put people in isolation yeah i don't need to physically harm you if i can psychologically harm you i don't need to it's terrifying yeah i don't need to uh actually convince you through a monopoly on violence on physical violence what if i can psychologically change the way you see the world through misinformation through all sorts of nefarious activities and i think that you know the united states has been struggling with this idea over the last couple of years in the political arena but what happens when it starts to come to other aspects of our life and i think it's very likely it's almost obviously likely that we're moving into the digital world the one of the features of the digital world is that artificial intelligence systems can operate with much more power in a in a frictionless way in that world currently as we understand it it's hard it's hard to build robots that operate at scale and do like arbitrary large amount of impact damage or positive in the physical world it's much easier to do in the digital world do you have do you ever think about ai systems just swimming about uh doing extraordinarily powerful destructive things in the digital world is that something of a concern to you or is this something into a very distant future i think a lot of artificial intelligence is uh in the name it's simply the replication of human intelligence at scale automated and program uh programmatic meaning that in the analog world you could go hire a thousand employees or in you know an amazon case hire millions of employees and set a mission or a goal and push them to go do that that requires recruiting retention training resources all that stuff in the virtual world or in this digital economy what if you can just program the resources and gain the same leverage and do it at scale and do it in a very programmatic way and then have them actually make decisions in a way that doesn't require you to have thought of every single potential scenario or edge case that's ultimately what we're talking about when we talk about artificial intelligence right and so when you look at that when technology is created everyone uses it for good or bad but both get used right and so whether we're talking about cell phones beepers the internet uh guns whatever it's always used for good and bad the big question is and i think that you know yourself and many other people have rightfully said this is the question really becomes is the negative and nefarious uses of this inadvertent potentially or does it actually come from a malicious person it's the intention malicious and to me that's what i i don't know enough you know much more about this and there's plenty of other people who do as well but i do think that there will be nefarious actors and malicious people but we're going to treat them the same way we've always treated people who use technology poorly right we're going to understand it we're going to identify it we're going to control it and then we're going to end up reversing it or preventing that from doing them it's the inadvertent things that i think are actually the most dangerous because when you have something that can think for itself and there is no way to leverage a monopoly on violence for control it's a very scary thing and it can i mean the the thing that's scary to me is this it can scale arbitrarily so it can outnumber humans very quickly even if it's dumber than humans and so i don't know if we're able to reason about a world like let's look at the physical analog where all of a sudden uh let's talk about something kind of like humans but dumber than humans like chimps okay imagine that all of a sudden chimps could multiply arbitrarily quickly and you could have like a trillion chimps the next day when you when you only had maybe a million the day before like how does that world look different where the fuck all these chimps come from and they like and then we can we can pretend to be like well let's hope the chimps like don't get violent because they don't seem to get violent when the resources aren't constrained but like we don't know and the problem is it all starts by building that first chip multiplier device and everyone's like okay yeah there's a lot of good applications you want you know uh you can make all kinds of arguments for why you have more chimps maybe they can help you out around the house or something like that in the physical space uh but ultimately it's the unintended consequences that you're referring to is you don't know what's going to happen i'm really worried about dumb ai agents uh like having impact when they're multiplied to a million to a billion and are allowed to operate in the digital space especially as we clearly are moving more and more of our lives into the digital space so it's kind of terrifying because we you know a lot of people are terrified or like concerned about super intelligence systems i think i'm definitely much more concerned about super dumb systems at scale that that's terrifying i always think about um the inadvertent but as you were talking what it made me think of is also the irreversible irreversible that's right so it's one thing if there's your inadvertent negative impact but we have reversibility built into a system and we can fix our mistakes yeah i think the really scary part is when you overlay inadvertent mistakes with the irreversible aspect of it and therefore humans have no control yeah if you if you have the trillion chimps you can't they're not gonna like it when you try to start killing them off uh all right but back to bitcoin those chimps in the bitcoin community anytime you bring up chimps some people say joe rogan entered the chat can i ask you about sort of learning about bitcoin books and resources you have an amazing podcast that's not just about bitcoin or cryptocurrency it's about everything including life but you do have a lot of really amazing conversations about this whole digital world but you obviously you also have a newsletter that's incredible on substack and and um but do you have recommendations maybe it would be great if you could talk about first of all your podcast and the newsletter but also other resources that you recommend people should check out in order to learn about bitcoin yeah so the podcast and uh email are like the two most selfish things i do because the podcast is a way for me to learn from other people so i get them to come on and tell me all the things they're thinking about and i could ask some questions what's it called by the way uh just the pomp podcast and so in doing that um it really is informative for me and i think that my whole goal is just like if i'm learning other people will be learning and then the email uh i read it every morning because it forces me to collect my thoughts and actually articulate them in somewhat of a coherent way and so it's just something that um is like a practice that i probably would do even if no one read it and then by being able to publish it uh what does it do it elicits you know both the good and bad responses and so people will let me know if they think i'm an idiot and they'll usually not respond if they think that it's something smart and so um those two things are really um educational for me and i think kind of forced me to uh to be able to articulate a lot of ideas but a lot of what i share or learn on those things come from these other resources so i'm definitely subscribing people should subscribe but what are bitcoin resources books that you recommend i think you got to start with bitcoin standard uh that one to me feels like uh it really lays out the picture nicely um there is uh bitcoin uh money you can't fuck with i was written by our friend jason williams uh as you can imagine it's basically what it talks about uh there's another book layered money um it's written by nick who uh who's done a great uh great job kind of laying it out um there's a book uh called bitcoin in black america written by a guy isaiah jackson and he basically lays out the argument for why the black community um can benefit in a asymmetric way from something like bitcoin um and there's a whole bunch more i'm gonna forget them all um there's the uh i think it's called the cost of tomorrow a guy jeff booth uh jeff booth wrote it um and just if you get on twitter basically you're gonna see all these books flying around um but i do have to say that uh from a psychological concept uh or philosophical concept the number one book that i've ever read uh that aligns with bitcoin ethos but doesn't say a word about bitcoin is a book called the dow of capital by mark spitznagel and so what he essentially does is he just reiterates over and over and over again long term thinking outliers disruption all the stuff and so he's a guy who he runs a fund uh that essentially they just do uh tail risk hedging and so in you know march or february of 2020 they're up like four thousand percent right by the way they pretty much lose money you know for eight nine years then that happens and so uh but they're still one of the best performing funds if you look at it over you know years and years and so it's just this mindset of uh everyone is so short term focused and so i think it's just a great reminder to long term thinking uh and also i mean i've gotten quite a bit of value just reading the papers and that's perhaps more like for technical folks there's quite an active research community and also going back to the original white paper and just original documents old school old school is still what uh like what a few years ago still really interesting to think about to look at what people were thinking about because the the principles are carried through with uh other cryptocurrencies as well like it's it's all it's all there even in the early documents so that's kind of fascinating to see that whole history from if you're more like tech savvy and like you said twitter is actually an interesting place if you can look past all the shit coin talk it's a it's a fascinating place for news and resources is there books outside of all this cryptocurrency sort of technical fiction philosophical that impact on your life because you've you have interests that are all over the place is there something that um you would recommend to others so doubt capital is definitely probably my favorite book um books that have been impactful i read uh when i was 20 actually sitting in the desert of iraq um rich dad poor dad thinking grow rich and the richest man in babble on and i don't think i took a single thing and like implemented it from like an execution standpoint uh but it was a complete shift in mentality and understanding a relationship with money and um just kind of what i wanted to do with my life and stuff like that so i think those three books i read them in succession were really impactful um and then i think one of the best books probably ever written is uh i think it's called uh when breath becomes air um or air becomes breath i can't remember uh but it's basically a doctor or a medical professional who's dying and he essentially writes about the experience and thoughts and kind of all the stuff and i think that it's just uh one of these things where if you said to me you know what's the number one thing i took out of my experience in iraq that's a book like that also gives you is we're all gonna die right and you and i can want to be as immortal as we want but at some point we're gonna die and so it really does kind of focus you on time being that scarce asset and use it for enjoyment and happiness uh more so than anything else and i think that's part of your message and it's a great one do you think do you like literally meditate on your own mortality i necessarily think i uh meditate on it as much as um are you afraid of death were you afraid of death when you're in iraq i mean if you're coming face to face with it are you afraid of death today no i i think that it was just one of these things where like if you fixate on something and you worry about it then at least to me like you become uneasy about it and so after an experience like going to war i think that everything is just so not important compared to that right like when i came back i remember uh going back into the college environment and like things people worried about i was like listen let me explain to you you know what the real world is like right but i think even today right if you talk to people who know me really well i don't get worked up about a lot of stuff i don't get you know in either direction good or bad uh anything because ultimately it just comes down to if that's the final result let's enjoy it it's fascinating to ask you because this reformulation of money essentially buying time and uh you know there's the old question of does money buy happiness do you think money can buy happiness in the context of money being able to buy time or is happiness something else that is beyond all of this when people talk about this question i think that they really focus on money as a means to getting materialistic things so they want a big house they want a boat they want a fast car they want you know whatever they think that's the stuff that will make them happy what i think about it is if you have resources you can have time and if you have time and you spend it the way that you want to spend it then that's ultimately happiness so i always say to people if you think that money doesn't buy you happiness what if i told you that if you had more money you could spend more time with your family it reframes it yeah and now is all about i want to do certain things in life but there's a lot of people who spend their life not doing those things because they feel the need to pursue economic means as a way to provide a living or whatever and so i explain this listen in my opinion again it's my opinion it's what makes me happy if i can leverage financial resources to create more time to do the things i like i'm happier might not work for everybody but like that's what works for me and so there's this element of like i don't care what other people think if they like that or not because they're not me right like there's almost this element of like you gotta figure out what works for you and if it works for me then like no i think that resonate that that will resonate with a lot of people i think that's a brilliant reframing of it uh that said uh you kind of imply there's a there's a reason behind this whole existence of ours there's a meaning to it so let me ask what is the meaning of life anthony do you think about these ridiculous big questions that have no answer every once in a while or do you just enjoy the shit out of every day i answer it in a way that um isn't meant to be accurate it's meant to um be the right answer for me which is ultimately you know and i talk to a lot of people who always ask like what's the what are you doing why are you doing this i say it's to be happy and the reason why i think of it that way is i've got a friend jonathan galler who talks about uh you know enough being enough and recently he talked about it in the um context of bitcoin and so bitcoiners are have two things any bitcoiner if you talk to them they believe the same two things one they don't want the us dollar price to go up because they actually want to acquire more bitcoin right and then let it go once they feel like they've got enough but two is no matter how much they own they think that they don't own enough and they want to acquire more and so at some point you say to yourself what is enough and and i think that the whole meaning of life is to understand kind of what your level of satisfaction is and for some people that's a monetary thing some people that's a freedom of time thing for some people it's an impact thing whatever but just understanding that's important and then going and accomplishing it and what i've found is that the people who i know who have done this and been intentional about it they accomplish it on a much shorter timeline than people who don't right there's some people who start thinking about this when they're 60 naturally you're not going to accomplish before you're 60 if you just start thinking about it 60 people who are thinking about it earlier can do it and so i think that's really it for me it's just like the meaning of life is to enjoy it the way i think about it that's because it's a really nice formulation i i almost like to sort of oscillate back and forth so majority of the time is spent at the moment of enough is enough of gratitude of basically being content with where you're at like deeply appreciative of every moment and all the bitcoin whatever bitcoin you have being deeply appreciative of it and that being enough and then some fraction of time perhaps it shrinks as you get older that's maybe there's an optimal trajectory there but some fraction of time is spent being yeah like deeply self critical and nothing is enough nothing you've ever done is worth anything it's the marvin minsky said like the secret to success is hating everything you've ever done so like that mode of just hating everything you've ever done and just like trying to improve trying to make stuff better nothing is enough it's never enough that kind of stuff and then oscillating back and forth like you don't have to have the same algorithm operating throughout the day you could just like oscillate back and forth and maybe reserve that gratitude part the chill part to when you're hanging out with family and friends and loved ones and then when you're like alone or maybe at work that's the madman comes out kind of thing i also think it's um kind of purpose driven in the sense of there's a lot of people who have the approach, and you can kind of go down the line with all their other arguments as to what they're trying to build. I think the big difference just comes down to, uh, innovation versus security. And when you simplistically look at it via that lens, you actually understand where both people are coming from. When you say security, sorry to interrupt, do you mean financial security or do you mean like literally the, the, the security of the, of the particular cryptocurrency? The, the technical security of a blockchain. So when you look at, let's say, um, Bitcoin versus Ethereum, right? Bitcoin has decided in that community has decided security is the number one thing that you have to optimize for. So decentralization, um, over everything else in terms of transaction speeds, uh, cost, anything that you could come up with, that is, uh, something that would be important for a currency. The number one thing to optimize for is security. And as we have seen, uh, with a lot of technologies, right? Facebook's, uh, Libra or now what's known as DiEM is a great example. Uh, not having decentralization is susceptible to the nation state. And so a lot of these other platforms and blockchains, uh, they say security is important, but it's not the most important thing we believe there's a trade off between, you know, a little less security and transaction speed or composability or whatever it is. And so take a theorem as kind of the second, uh, largest, uh, community and blockchain by market cap. It was created because somebody wanted to, or a group of people wanted to do something on Bitcoin. They felt like they couldn't do it. And so they said, Hey, we're going to go create something that has the smart contracts that we can then go do here. Again, this is technology, right? And so the tribalism of like, you're right, you're wrong to me is a little childish, just in the sense of like the market is going to decide what is most valuable. And then when you go inside of that community, like there's a lot of dumb ideas, people are trying to build around Bitcoin, but there's also a lot of really, really great ideas that people are trying to build around Bitcoin, same thing in the Ethereum world. And so what you end up getting, I think, is the tribalism really comes out of the idea that there's a ticker price that is attached to all of this, right? If you go back in history of technology, venture capitalists didn't sit around the table and yell and scream at each other in this like religious zealot way, right? Because you bet on one type of cloud computing platform. And I bet on another one, right? It's just the market's going to decide, we're both going to work on and try to make our successful, uh, here in the world. I think that the sensitivity and mainly it comes out of the Bitcoin community is that a lot of this is being funded, not only by venture capitalists and kind of professional money managers and asset allocators. There's also this element of including the retail investor and the public. And so it, whether it's through ICOs or some other forms of capital raising, um, there's arguments for it saying, Hey, look, uh, this now gives kind of the little guy, some sort of access and an ability to do it. But there's also arguments against it. Some people say, Hey, it's easier to dupe them and it's easier to run scams and kind of all this stuff. And so ultimately I think that, uh, crypto is this like arena of ideas. It is literally the war of attrition and, uh, what will end up happening is 10 years from now, you and I will talk and we're going to say, well, the market said X was valuable and Y wasn't. And so all of the tribalism from between, you know, here and there, uh, it's fun. It's, you know, engaging. Whatever, but ultimately it doesn't really matter because the public is involved. There's a lot of personalities. And so a lot of times we focus on the extreme personalities that do a lot of maybe, uh, pardon the French shit talking. And, and so we kind of focus on that, but that's not necessarily a representative of the communities involved. Let's talk about Bitcoin first, and then it'll help us use as a kind of comparison to Ethereum or whatever else. So when you think about what is money, right? That's kind of the first question. People really kind of go down the rabbit hole on, and ultimately today, it's a belief system, right? And you may believe that one currency has more value over another because it's backed by a certain military or a certain government has a monetary policy that you believe in or don't believe in. Um, but ultimately it's a belief system that there's nothing backing this, uh, other than, uh, a government asks you to pay your taxes in it, right? And they can have a monopoly on violence, uh, in terms of they can put you in jail. If you don't pay your taxes, uh, they can, uh, they can, uh, they can go to other countries and they can invade and do all this stuff. It wasn't always like that, right? It was historically a layer one technology was gold. And so gold was a fantastic store of value. You knew that if you held gold, it wasn't going to be inflated away. It was sound money was outside the system and no one could create more of it. And the reason why that's important is because that optimization for store of value served as the bedrock of the entire stack of, uh, money. Uh, for 5,000 years. And so the problem with that though, again, trade off between store of value is it was really hard to transact with, right? If I came in here and I, and you said, Hey, I want a couple of ounces of gold and I had a whole bar, I'd have to literally shave off the ounces of gold. Uh, it's heavy to carry around. If you said to me, Hey, you're in one city, mail it to me, really expensive. You know, there's all these issues with it. And so ultimately what people said was, well, let's create a second layer on top of that gold in order to make it easier to transact with it. That gold in order to make it easier to transact. And so we created paper claims on the gold. So, Hey, don't carry around the gold in your pocket anymore. Put it in a vault or a bank. They're going to issue a paper claim. Now you and I can trade these paper claims around. And at any point, if you want the gold, you just show up and you say, Hey, give me three ounces of gold or two bars or whatever. And so that actually made the store of value. It was allowed that to be the anchor and kind of the most important part, the security of your, of your purchasing power, but now it became easier to transact. And then eventually we built layers even on top of that. So everything from electronic money, uh, kind of electronic UCIPS, all the way to credit and other systems on top of that gold 1971 comes around and obviously we D peg from that gold, right? And it was a temporary measure at the time. We ended up not going back to it. And so what you moved or transitioned from was sound money, which was outside the system, no one could create more to now the government had full control. They could create as much as they wanted to. They tried to be responsible and disciplined, but obviously hard to do. Sometimes we've been really good at it. Sometimes we've been less good at it. And then you go around the world and some countries have absolutely sucked at it and some have been good at it. And so when you look into the Bitcoin world, I think that when you look at this optimization for security, similar to gold store value, people hold it. Purchasing power has gone up a lot year over year. It's like a 200% year over year compound annual growth for over a decade. Right? And so you measure this in kind of the us dollar exchange price, et cetera. But there's still a lot of people who will yell and scream about it's slow. It's costly, right? All the things around those transactions that are obstacles or challenges. And so there's basically two schools of thought, and this is where we kind of get into the bifurcation. Some people just said, Hey, this technology is antiquated. We can't use it. It doesn't make sense. Uh, and so what we're going to do is we're going to go build something new. And so you go get, you know, kind of all of the various versions there. The Bitcoin community says, no, just like gold had paper claims and other things built on top and layer two, three, four, five, we're going to do that here. And so they've already started to build kind of this layer two where it's easier to transact. It's cheaper, it's faster, et cetera. And so I actually think that both of those worlds are going to coexist in the future. The big question is just which one has more importance, right? So again, get out of binary. It's just probabilistically. And so my personal belief is that the security that the store of value component as the bedrock for a monetary system is essential, right? Like that is the most important thing because you can always improve the other components, but you can't go back and fix that kind of core piece. So money, money's a, an idea that we all it's like an emergent idea that we believe in. You're saying that security is one of the most fundamental catalysts or fuels for that idea to sort of take hold and be stable and sort of take over the world. The other stuff is really nice to have, but if you don't have the security, you're not going to, like, it's not going to spread in the viral sense in, in our human brains. Well, and especially in light of the kind of the macro economy, right? So like, what's so fascinating about the last 12 months is, um, in investing in general, the best returns, right? I kind of put that in air quotes a little bit is something that is different than everything else and right. So being different and wrong just means you're an idiot, right? Being different and right means that that's where kind of the outsize returns are. And so if you look around the world at currencies today, they're all the same. They're all inflationary, unlimited supply controlled by a government done and decisions made in a very non transparent process. And what we've watched is the manipulation of all of those currencies over the last 12 months in direct contrast to that is this thing, Bitcoin, which is outside of the system, has a finite supply, transparent and programmatic monetary policy. And so when you see those two systems kind of, um, in comparison to each other in the United States, there's a lot of people who say the dollar works great for me. I can go to the ATM, I can get out physical cash. If I want to swipe a card, I could do that. My money in my bank doesn't lose 50% of its value in a day in terms of purchasing power. Like the dollar's pretty good. When you go to other countries, that might not be the case. And so I do think that there's a kind of a relative analysis that goes on here. If you compare Bitcoin to the dollar, there's all kinds of arguments to make that the dollar is better as a medium of exchange today. But if I go and I tell you, well, what about in these kind of extreme examples of Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Turkey, et cetera. And so I think that that's kind of one perspective to view this through is security versus all of the innovative components of a medium of exchange, et cetera. The second thing, though, that I think is really important is around censorship. And so when you look at, again, every currency in the world today, every single financial service, they're highly susceptible to censorship. And actually, I would argue the United States is in the business of censorship in terms of how many countries around the world do we sanction and cut them off in either a minimal or a very material way from the global uh i need to do more but in a somewhat altruistic way so they're you know take elon as an example the idea of colonizing mars sure if he is successful he will be very rich i don't think you or i or many people believe he's doing it for the money right there's a lot of other things he could do that would be much easier that would make him tons of money and so in some weird way he has enough because he's able to free himself from the constraints of i need to acquire more resources and he can focus on what is the thing that i want to work on regardless of money and so in that pursuit that is non economic you can be as selfish as you want because ultimately you're not tied back to this like measurement tool and so it's this uh again like altruistic non monetary purpose and i think that there's a lot of people who spend their whole life looking for that and they don't know what it is and so again some people may not think of it that way but if you can find something to do that you win i don't think there's a better way to end it anthony i'm a huge fan it's a huge honor that you waste all this time with me today uh you know i thank you for just educating the world for for teaching me uh inspire me to learn more about this new set of technologies that look like they have a potential to change transform all of human civilization so thank you for coming today and thank you for being who you are absolutely thank you so much for having me thanks for listening to this conversation with anthony pampliano and thank you to our sponsors theragun muscle recovery device sun basket meal delivery service express vpn and indeed hiring website click their links to support this podcast and now let me leave you some words from mahatma gandhi freedom is not worth having if it doesn't include the freedom to make mistakes thank you for listening and hope to see you next time financial system. So when you define it, when you talk about censorship, do you mean just the censoring your ability to operate freely in the world? Well, look at it a little bit differently, which is that the United States has kind of the American superiority because we have the bombs, the bullets, the soldiers and that military might. We basically impose our will around the world. And so there's a very strong argument to be made that there are certain countries around the world that are being sanctioned, that the people of those countries did nothing wrong. Now, the governments are bad, right? In terms of the way that you and I would look at democratic rule or communism or whatever it is, but the people are being hurt as well. So there's a whole group of people who would just argue, listen, we shouldn't hurt anyone at the expense of punishing one person or a group of people. There's other people argue against that. But I do think that if you really kind of zoom out and you say, I'm going to take myself out of the Western worldview, and I'm simply going to look at this as we're all part of the human race, it's censorship. And there might be an argument for censorship, but there also might be an argument against the censorship. And so what Bitcoin does, as that specific kind of payment network is it says anyone in the world with an internet connection, I don't care where you were born, what language you speak, what religion you are, your wealth status, your education status, none of it matters. If you have an internet connection, you're not going to care. If you have an internet connection, you can plug into this monetary system. And you can move value around the world to anyone else without asking for permission. And in the United States, we basically have that ability in the US dollar kind of traditional banking system, I can pretty much send money to almost anyone I want unless they're a really bad person that's on some list or something. Most people in the world don't have that capability. And so what you're essentially doing is you're democratizing access to a true store value, and a medium of exchange, right. And so what you see in many of these countries is that when their currency starts to fail, the first thing that a government or a group of people in power and influence do is they lock the citizens into the currency with capital controls. Why? Because if you let them out, it exasperates the problem. And so now what we're seeing is we basically are giving a tool to billions of people around the world that is a peaceful protest. Right? You and I had no say at all. When not only the Federal Reserve and elected officials here in the United States, but central banks around the world over the last 12 months decided to create trillions of dollars and injected into the monetary system. Right? They have arguments, and some of them are very good arguments as to why they should do that. They're trying to mitigate short term pain. Long term, they'll figure out the other issues, right? They have very kind of elaborate and well articulated kind of viewpoint as to why they're doing it. But you and I had no say. And so when you start to look at, we have a very small group of people in this world, both in our country and in countries around the world that make these decisions that have very, very far reaching kind of impact. And on top of that, in many cases, there's actually not that much kind of accountability. Because usually these are not elected officials who are making some of these decisions, these are appointed. And you can argue that, hey, we elected somebody who appointed them. But at the same time, that accountability isn't quite there. And so I think ultimately, when you just back out, you say, you know, what is Bitcoin? Why is it important to the world? It is giving access to anyone in the world with an internet connection to a store of value and a monitoring network that allows them to peacefully protest and to opt out of a system that pretty much is not working for majority of people in the world. So it's moving the power from these centralized places, sometimes unelected to the individuals and to the people. So the dollar does seem to work for Americans and for many people in the world. But you kind of have a vision, you paint a picture of a future where potentially we move to cryptocurrency. So what kind of trajectory do you see where Bitcoin can become the main currency in the world, or at least cryptocurrency become the main way of storing value in the world and basically overtake the dollar? Yeah, so I always go first to we don't need to have competition like in terms of like a direct competition between the dollar and Bitcoin, right? If you look at most technologies in the world, the really valuable ones are actually market expanding technologies, rather than simply just market share stealing technologies, right. So if you look at Uber, for example, Uber didn't just say, Hey, I'm gonna go take out all the taxis, right? It actually drastically expanded the market for people now there's literally millions of people in the United States who don't have cars because they use Uber, right. And so I think that Bitcoin is very similar in that, yes, there is a component of medium of exchange, in terms of the dollar. But also there is this component of just store value assets in general. And so when you start to look at Bitcoin, specifically, I think that what you're seeing is you're seeing a generational gap, where young people say, I grew up with a phone in my hand, I'm digitally native, the whole idea of going to the bank and sending a wire, or going to an ATM and getting physical cash is an antiquated idea in their mind, right? I one time asked my brother, he's 24 years old. And I said, Hey, how do you send money to your friends? And he gave me one answer, which I expected, which was Venmo. And the second answer, I didn't expect he said Uber. I said, How do you send money via Uber? He said, Well, we get in a car together. And at the end, we split the ride. And so again, you and I have probably both done that. But I never thought of it as a way to send money to each other. And so it is a psychological difference between even me, who's only, you know, a decade older than him or so, and his peer group. And so I think as we're watching kind of Bitcoin continue this ascent, ultimately, what we're seeing is an entire generation of kids are saying, Listen, if I look at financial assets across the board, I have stocks, I have bonds, I have currencies, and I have commodities, I know that bonds, from a real rate return perspective, is flat to negative, right? I'm gonna make no money on this, because I have a belief that my dollar is being devalued. And actually, what we're starting to see is, again, the internet has broken down these walled gardens and kind of these centralized hubs of information, in that if you were to look at, let's say the stock market, from 1971 to today, in dollar terms, it's a 45 degree angle right up into the right, right, you know, it's kind of seven, 810% growth, every year, it's amazing, just get invested in the stock market, and you'll make money over a long period of time, regardless of the dips along the way. If you do not make that same stock market in gold, the stock market is down since 1971. And so is it so much that the stock market is accruing true value? Or is it that the underlying currency in which it is denominated in is being devalued? Right? And I was being devalued in a very disciplined way, right, in terms of it's not like it went 50% devaluation in a short period of time, but it's still being devalued. And so I think that people are waking up to this idea that a traditional 6040 type global portfolio doesn't work anymore, right? 40% of it in bonds is just not going to get it done. And so when you start to look at this, people first look at Bitcoin via two main ways, in my opinion, they look at it one as a store value, should I actually go and put some of my wealth there use it as a savings technology, right? We ask people in the traditional world, if you're a teacher, a fireman, an accounting, you know, mid level manager, we say, hey, go do your job, be best in class as a fireman or as a teacher. And then Oh, by the way, you have to be a professional investor as well. Because if you just put your dollars in your bank account, you're literally going to have your wealth devalued away over time. So you can't just save you have to invest. That is a really tall task for people, they have a hard enough time just doing their job, right? Taking care of their family, right? Now they got to go be an investor. So I think savings technology for Bitcoin standpoint is, if you buy satoshis or Bitcoin, over time, it will increase from a purchasing power standpoint, because there's a fixed supply and demand continues to rise. But then you start to look at well, what other assets do people put in their portfolios, whether it's art, it's real estate, precious metals, or something else. Most of those assets are not because people actually think that they're going to go up in value over time, they're using the store of value. Right? The reason why somebody buys gold is because the store of value, right historically, that's a narrative driven type asset, though, right? We tell people it's scarce, we tell people that it is a store of value. When you look at it, though, we don't know how much gold exists in the world, we have a good estimate, right? But we don't actually we can't prove how much there is. We don't know how much is coming out of the ground every day. Again, great, fantastic estimate. But we can't prove it. And we don't know what the total supply and that's what you mean by narrative driven, we can't really prove it, like mathematically, we you I and everyone else in the world has lived in a narrative driven world for the last couple of decades, right? And what the internet and digital technologies have done is it opened up the possibility and the desire from people to have a world now where I can validate things. So when I see that headline, I want to see you say whatever happened to the news, if you're the subject of the news, rather than have somebody else tell me the story. If I see that you say something is scarce, prove to me that it is scarce. And so I think that's kind of a psychological shift, the younger generation is starting to understand because ultimately, you and I probably grew up in a world where parents could tell us the story. And we just believed it. You know, dad or mom says it must be true. If my brother heard a story, what does he do? He goes to Google and he looks it up. Randy comes back and usually tells my parents, oh, you got the story wrong, right. And so I think that that that provability or that that validation ends up becoming really, really important. And so, you know, look at something like gold, I think that people are drastically underestimating the shift that's underway right now. Gold is one down in value since April, or I'm sorry, August of 2020. And so in a timeframe where central banks have had historic quantitative using literally $6 trillion in the United States, the one asset that historically has been the best store of value and has, you know, in 2008 financial crisis hit an all time high based on the government response has actually suffered for a main part of this financial crisis. You then look at central banks around the world who have been very large holders of gold for a long time and net buyers on a monthly basis. For multiple months, over the last six months, they've been net sellers of gold. And then you start to look at jewelry demand. So the actual non monetary value of gold, and that demand for gold jewelry peaked in 2013, and has continued to fall since. And so what you start to say to yourself is take just the asset of gold, which about $10 trillion market cap, and you say, Okay, well, jewelry demand continues to fall, even if it's at a slight rate, but it's continues to contract. You have central banks that now at some times are net sellers and sometimes net buyers, right? So okay, again, contraction there. And then from the investment standpoint, the actual price, the daily price of this continues to fall, which is a signal that there's a contracting demand from an investment perspective. That's 93% of all use of gold, only 7% of it's used for actual technology and metal conduction and things like that. And so you have a $10 trillion asset that it appears and again, maybe data changes, and I'll change my mind and other people change their mind, but it appears is on the decline. And so if that happens, you're going to get the contraction of a $10 trillion asset, where's all that value go. And what you're seeing is at the same time that that asset is contracting, you're also seeing a massive influx from not only retail investors, not only kind of the wealthy and the elite, but also from financial institutions, corporations, pension funds, etc. into this kind of digital sound money. So you're saying that there's a kind of shift from gold to Bitcoin, because they have a lot of the same properties, except one is in the physical space, the other is in the digital space. So do you see like central banks, quietly potentially switching out from sort of gold to Bitcoin, like naturally just doing is seeing a pattern that you're referring to now, but more drastically into the future, where there's a complete shift, if you line up the gold community and the Bitcoin community next to each other, they'll agree on all the problems that they that they see in the world, right? They'll actually agree on the solution that sound money is the solution where they differentiate is the gold communities believes that it's the analog application of sound money, right? The physical gold, that is the solution. The Bitcoin community believes the digital application of sound money, Bitcoin, can you define sound money, by the way, someone is just outside the system, and no one can create more of it. So nobody controls it. This is scarcity is fundamental. Exactly why scarcity important in money? I think scarcity just has this very high correlation to value across all assets, not just money, right? Money happens to be the unit of account that we use in terms of daily commerce. But whether it is, you know, as we're seeing now, sneakers, or you know, whatever it is, scarcity, ultimately, is that signal of value, I think, and that's just been the way that humans derive value for literally, you know, thousands and thousands of years. Yeah, I gotta say, that's my view on life and love in general, is scarcity is what makes it valuable. People talk about immortality. You know, I would like to be immortal, but it does, it does seem that when you let go of the finiteness of life, I feel like that meals and the experiences you have get devalued significantly, like, the longer you live, the less value there are in infinity, if you live forever, I worry that all the meaning will dissipate. And the same thing with love, I think criticism of sort of dating culture and all that kind of stuff. Like I haven't had shocking revelation that I've never been on a tinder date or any of those things. I believe that scarcity in dating and interaction is like, intensifies the value of when the interactions do happen. So, when they like when love does happen. And so in that sense, there's something magical about scarcity in the more subjective psychological social world, as well. And perhaps money is just another version of that, right? It's just it's all about the stories and ideas we tell ourselves. I think they're actually more interconnected than you're giving it credit for, right? Which is, what is money? Money is time, ultimately, right? The pursuit of the acquisition of money, right, of whether it's a currency or true money, is because that should give you more time, right? And that's what would give you more time. And so one of my favorite movies ever is, and it's funny, because Justin Timberlake is in it, is this movie in a lot of me, I lose most people at that point, in time, in time. And basically, the premise of the movie is that everyone has a clock that is embedded into their arm. And so if you go to work, you basically put your arm underneath when you leave, and there's time that's deposited into your clock. And if your clock ever hits all the arrows, you're dead, you die on the spot. And so there's a number of scenes where people are basically running, you know, to get to you, and I give you a little bit more time so that you can get to work on Monday, and then you work to acquire time. And so basically, time becomes this currency. But what becomes very fascinating about it is there are sections in society, where literally, there's physical places, if you only have, let's say, 72 hours or less, you're allowed to go to Section One. Section Five, though, is because you have years and years and years on your clock. And in this movie, everyone at the age of 25 freezes from a biological aging standpoint. So everyone stays the same, but you may have lived for 1000 years. And so what becomes so fascinating about it is that rich people have time, poor people do not have time. And so in it, Justin Timberlake, the main character at one point, essentially acquires a bunch of time, and he's able to go to one of the higher levels. And now he's attending all these galas and, you know, poker nights and all this stuff. And one of the first things that he learns is that in the lower end of society, everyone is running everywhere at all times in the movie, because time is so finite, and it is so scarce. And so therefore, why would I walk down the street, I must run down the street. In the highest level of society, no one runs anywhere. And in fact, if you run, you are seen as lower class. Yeah, because wealth is time. And so that movie is, you know, it's got a ton of kind of things that you can pull out of it, but to me is the perfect epitome of money is time. And so when you start to think about the acquisition of money, right, it goes to this whole idea of time billionaire. And I know that there's probably a lot of people who've heard about this already. But if you think of a million seconds, it's about 11 days, a billion seconds is 31 years. And so if I said to somebody, you have to switch lives with Warren Buffett, would you do it? Some people would say, Sure, that'd be their initial reaction. But you got have to be you know, 92 years old, is the money worth the lack of time? Most people would say no, right? And there's this guy, Graham Duncan, who really articulated this well. And ultimately, what ends up happening is you rest time is more valuable than the money. But the you acquire the money to gain more time. And the reason is valuable is because of the scarcity of time. We currently have the by the biology, the physics means that this is not just the narrative we tell ourselves, maybe it is, I don't know, but it feels like pretty sure we're mortal. And in that sense, the scarcity there gives value to time, it's fascinating to think about all the thought experiments here of if that could actually be on the economy, if you can actually convert time in a frictionless way to money. Well, and if you start to pull on this a little bit and say, okay, a young person today, let's say somebody in their 20s, has about 2 billion seconds left in their life, right, kind of 60 years, give or take, based on life expectancy. They usually, until they start to understand this concept, think of wealth in dollar terms. But dollars are being devalued. And so you know, a million dollars doesn't get you what it used to get, right is kind of an old adage. And so what you're doing is you're pursuing something that ends up losing value. And so it's the constant rat race, it's how do I constantly try to get more? How do I get more dollars? How do I get more dollars? Because even if I say to myself, you know, I'm going to retire when I get $100,000. When I get the $100,000, the $100,000 five years from now doesn't buy me what I thought it did. So now I need 500,000 or 200,000 or a million or whatever the number is. And so ultimately, what ends up occurring is that the Bitcoin community and many people in kind of this idea of sound money is you want to be able to acquire an asset that not only will hold the value, right, the store of value over time, but it will actually appreciate over time. And so when you look at something like Bitcoin against the dollar against other types of assets, all of these assets are down compared to Bitcoin, right? Now, some of that's just in the early days of kind of the pricing of an asset, you go from very small to something much larger. But now what you start

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