第 249 期·中文精讀

阿爾伯特·布林拉:輝瑞 CEO

Albert Bourla: Pfizer CEO

輝瑞掌門人談新冠疫苗的研發速度、藥物定價爭議,以及大藥企在公共危機中的角色。

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中文精讀由 AI 基於原始訪談改寫,非官方翻譯,可能存在偏差或錯誤;表述以原音訊與官方文稿為準。說明

2020年11月8日下午兩點,康涅狄格州一間很小的辦公室。五個人,幾杯咖啡,一些互相調侃的玩笑。

他們在等一個電話。

電話那頭是資料監查委員會(Data Monitoring Committee),一組與輝瑞無關的獨立專家。他們手裡有揭開盲態的許可權,能告訴輝瑞:III期臨床試驗的疫苗,成了,還是沒成。

電話比預定時間來得晚。等待的幾個人越等越焦慮,只能互相打趣,喝咖啡,講笑話。等到兩點左右,鈴聲響了。

自由了,解放了,開心。就像壓在我肩上的一塊巨石被卸了下來。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他轉頭對團隊說了句“我愛你們”。“我們地中海人就是這麼說話的。”布林拉和 Lex Fridman 聊起這個細節時笑了笑,又補了一句,“也許你們俄羅斯人也這樣。”

23億美元,一次全押

輝瑞和 BioNTech 合作的這款疫苗,研發投入是23億美元左右,摺合人民幣接近150億。

這筆錢特別的地方在投法。

藥企做研發有一套慣常的風控節奏:先花5000萬美元摸底,資料不錯再投5000萬,再有進展再加1個億。每一步都留退路,每一步都看前面的結果再決定下一步。這套節奏把風險攤薄了,代價是把時間也攤薄了。

布林拉把所有的錢一次投了進去。

通常我們花5000萬,如果順利,再花5000萬,再順利,再花1億。這一次,我們一次性把23億全部押上,這樣不損失時間。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他形容這個決定談不上艱難。2020年初那種情況下,恐懼籠罩著所有人,包括輝瑞自己的員工,沒人知道明天長什麼樣。既然手裡有能幫忙的東西,就沒有第二個選項。

這話聽起來像公關辭令。但如果把輝瑞當時的財務結構攤開看,這個決定的分量會更清楚。

研發新藥的公司,本質是在做一場機率生意。候選分子在臨床階段的淘汰率高得驚人,活下來的那一小部分要連本帶利把所有人的投入賺回來,所以藥價裡天然含著失敗的成本。一次性押上23億,等於是把未來幾年好幾個專案的容錯空間,全部壓在一條賽道上。成了,一切好說;不成,股東要問話。

Fridman 追問了一句很多人心裡的話:你是CEO,公司要賺錢,這個決定裡有幾分是救人,幾分是財務計算?

我很清楚,如果你太專注於賺錢,你永遠賺不到錢。你應該專注於真正的價值驅動是什麼。真正的價值驅動,是做出改變患者生命的突破。你不做這個,永遠賺不到錢;你做了,別擔心,錢會跟著來。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

這套邏輯聽著像心靈雞湯,其實是製藥行業最樸素的商業常識。專利保護期一到,仿製藥蜂擁而上,價格斷崖式下跌。一款藥能賺多少錢,幾乎完全取決於它在專利期內能不能做到別人做不到的事。“做個好藥”在這個行業裡從來都是唯一可持續的商業模式。

速度快,不等於流程短

外界對新冠疫苗最大的疑問之一是速度:一款常規疫苗從零到上市要八到十年,這個不到一年就打了。安全測試是不是被壓縮了?

布林拉給出的答案反過來了:流程一步沒少,少的是等待和猶豫。

疫苗研發通常分幾個階段。先是從幾十個候選方案裡篩,輝瑞最初試了20種,一路篩到4種,再到2種,最後定下1種。然後是劑量摸索,從低劑量開始打進人體,逐步加量,同時監測免疫反應和不良反應,還要覆蓋不同年齡段,年輕人、老年人分開看。接著是接種方案,第二針隔三週、四周還是六個月,都要試出來。

這些做完,才輪到III期臨床。這一步是真正燒錢的環節,輝瑞這次花了接近10億美元。所以正常流程裡,企業會在進入III期之前反覆做實驗,儘可能確認手裡這個就是對的,才敢把10億美元押上去。

輝瑞把這段“反覆確認”的時間砍掉了,用錢換。III期臨床本身的設計、盲法、安慰劑對照,一條規則都沒改。

注射疫苗的醫生不知道他打的是安慰劑還是疫苗,他只知道一個條碼。只有計算機知道。要進入那臺計算機,至少需要兩個人同時插入鑰匙。這些人有法律義務,在任何情況下都不能提前檢視資料。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

提速的地方在招募。正常一款疫苗的III期臨床,30家醫院參與,招滿5萬人要一年。輝瑞把參與的醫院擴到150家,三四個月招

滿。多出來的成本很直白:150家醫院同時開動,人力、協調、管理,全是錢。

真正的加速度來自目標設定。

輝瑞過去十年每年的疫苗總產量是2億劑。這次布林拉給生產團隊的任務是30億劑,一款全新疫苗。正常一個新分子的發現階段要四年,新冠口服藥的發現階段,他給的時間是四個月。

當你設定這種目標時,他們立刻就知道,不能只在框框裡思考。這時候人的聰明才智和心就出來了。這就是他們讓所有人驚訝的方式。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他反覆強調一句話:人對自己能力的估計,通常嚴重偏低。給一個看起來不可能的任務,人才會跳出框框。

FDA那75年,和一段不肯讓步的追問

訪談裡有一段氣氛明顯變緊。

FDA 當時面對一項訴訟,被要求公開輝瑞疫苗的審評資料。FDA 提出的時間表是按75年來披露。這個數字一出來,各種猜測都冒了出來。

布林拉的回答是標準的合規口徑:輝瑞和監管機構的往來一直很透明,有法律強制要求公開雙方的溝通內容,他不清楚FDA為什麼要這麼久,但他相信FDA有很好的理由。

Fridman 沒有放過這個問題。他說,這看起來不像一個好理由。他提到,75年這個數字的來源,很可能是FDA內部設定的審評速度,比如每天只能處理500頁檔案。這是典型的官僚機制:規則本身合理,累積起來的效果荒唐。

政府很擅長制定規則、確保對企業和個人的監督。但它們會讓事情變慢,這是特性,也是缺陷。在這個案例裡,它們慢到了這個程度。我認為FDA有潛力成為這個國家最偉大的機構之一。而這一個例子,在我看來是失敗的。(Lex Fridman)

布林拉的回應值得琢磨。他說,這算不上一個黑箱。審評流程是公開的,所有人都知道規則;FDA 裡有水平極高的科學家,歐洲的、英國的、日本的監管機構也一樣,他們會鑽進非常細的細節;而且按照法律,每一項研究的關鍵內容都會寫在產品說明書裡,那是一份非常詳細的檔案。

這段回答技術上沒錯,但它繞開了問題的核心。Fridman 追問的重點落在“當公眾有疑問時,機構為什麼選擇沉默”,流程本身是否存在根本不是他在問的東西。

有時候問題出在溝通的笨拙和沉默上,流程並沒有失敗。在很多人明顯感到不安、有疑問的時刻,沉默本身就是問題。你應該站出來,解釋清楚為什麼,而不是讓不信任一點點積累、發酵。(Lex Fridman)

這段話點到了一個關鍵機制:信任的流失很少來自某一次具體的錯誤,更多來自“我有問題,但沒人回答我”這種持續的懸置感。懸置久了,空白會被別的東西填滿。

那道從FDA通向輝瑞的門

喬丹·彼得森(Jordan Peterson)託 Fridman 帶了一個問題:輝瑞、FDA、CDC 之間存在密切的人員流動,很多人在FDA工作過,現在在輝瑞;也有人反過來。這種旋轉門會不會影響監管的公正性?

布林拉的回答很直接:零懷疑。

為了強化這套系統,他們設了很長的時間壁壘。如果一個人從產業界進入FDA,在一段時間內他不能處理相關議題;如果是他曾經任職的公司,這個期限還要更長。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他補充說,難的決策會引入外部專家,容易的決策由內部專家反覆辯論,有分歧就往上抬。這套自查和制衡機制,在CDC和FDA內部都存在。

Fridman 在這裡做了一件很少見的事:他講起了自己的來歷。

他成長於蘇聯,那個環境裡,賄賂是辦事的預設路徑。被警察攔下來,給錢是常識,這就是生活方式。後來到了美國,看到法治有這麼大的力量,他覺得美。

但他仍然擔心人性。

當你看到一些人的簡歷上,既有輝瑞的經歷,又有FDA、CDC的經歷,這會讓人不安。這些本該被視為權威的領導者,究竟有沒有在跟公眾玩一場遊戲?(Lex Fridman)

布林拉承認 Fridman 描述的蘇聯經驗是真實的,也承認有些國家確實需要那樣做事,但他認為美國這些機構不是這樣,它們有很高的誠信記錄。他相信絕大多數美國人、歐洲人、英國人、以色列人,信任FDA、EMA、CDC、MHRA說的話。

這個判斷在2021年底就已經顯得樂觀。它的侷限在於把信任當成了一個靜態存量:只要機構歷史上可靠,公眾就該繼續信任。可信任是動態的,每一次沉默、每一個75年,都在扣減它。

聲譽是桶漏滴收的生意

Fridman 提到了一個繞不開的名字:Bextra。

2009年,輝瑞承認對關節炎藥物 Bextra 進行非法營銷,同意支付23億美元和解。這是美國歷史上最大的醫療欺詐和解案之一。

布林拉沒有迴避,他把時間線拆開講:2009年的案子,對應的是2003年的行為。

2003年發生的事情,基本上是我們幾個銷售代表做了標籤外推廣。他們和醫生談論了產品的標籤外用途,而他們不應該這麼做。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他解釋了標籤外的含義:FDA批准的適應症之外,這款藥可能還有別的療效。醫生之間討論這些研究是允許的,製藥公司不能主動向醫生推薦這些未獲批的用途。

罰款金額的構成,他也講得很坦白:這筆錢對應的並非行為的嚴重程度,它按營收規模來算。Bextra 是個大產品,所以罰得重;如果是個小產品,罰得就輕。

2003年發生的事非常糟糕。我不認為那之後還發生過類似的事。從2009年到現在,我們在遵守每一條法規和規則上有出色的記錄。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

關於公眾信任,他說了一句在這個訪談裡最像格言的話。

聲譽是可以用桶丟掉、用滴賺回來的東西。一旦失去,你需要付出巨大努力才能拿回來。製藥行業失去過它。很清楚,過去十年這個行業的聲譽跌到了歷史最低點。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他承認原因之一就是行業自身的行為。但他也給出一個觀察:新冠期間,私營部門拿出了檢測、呼吸機、治療藥物、疫苗。他認為這向世界證明了私營生命科學部門對社會的價值,也改善了輝瑞的聲譽。

緊接著他補了一句自我約束:他不會把這份聲譽當成理所當然。

廣告、贊助,和那種說不清的壓力

Fridman 提到喬·羅根(Joe Rogan)指出的現象:輝瑞在主流媒體上投放了大量廣告。他的問題落在隱性壓力上,廣告合不合法倒在其次。

人們看主流新聞,是想知道這世界到底怎麼了。如果輝瑞是很多節目的贊助商,節目在討論輝瑞時會不會不自覺地手軟?這種影響很微妙,但在規模上可能很嚴重。

布林拉否認了激進營銷的說法。他給出的理由是:處方藥廣告受到嚴格監管,不能提任何未獲批的用途,而且FDA強制要求廣告裡必須同時說明藥物的不良反應,有時候講壞處的時間比講好處還長。

人們有權知道,如果有這樣的產品存在,他們應該瞭解。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

關於贊助,他給了一個具體的數字:輝瑞的贊助非常少,而且每一個專案,哪怕2000美元,都有專門團隊評估是否存在利益衝突、被贊助方或節目的聲譽如何。他說輝瑞的贊助更多集中在患者組織,會刻意避開那些“即使不被影響,也可能被看起來像被影響”的場合。

Fridman 在這段裡沒有繼續逼問,轉而講了一段自己的經歷。

他到MIT之後有點失望,甚至有點心碎。他本以為在一個資金充裕的地方,人們會全力做最好的工作、互相支援、為彼此的成功慶祝。現實是,即使錢很多,人們仍然感到財務壓力,而這種壓力沒有激發出他們最好的一面。

我不想把一切都歸咎於錢。但當你有了贊助商,我個人會擔心,它不會把人身上最好的東西激發出來。(Lex Fridman)

這段話值得停一下。它講的並非腐敗,它指向一種更日常的東西:當一個組織的話語權和經濟來源高度重疊,很多微妙的自我審查不需要任何人下指令,會自己發生。這種機制很難取證,也很難反駁,因為它從來不留下痕跡。

沒有哪個醫療產品被這樣檢測過

關於安全性,布林拉給了一個在這個訪談裡最強硬的判斷。

人類歷史上,沒有任何一個醫療產品被如此大規模地檢測過。它已經被接種到數億人身上。因為新冠的重要性,這些人被持續審視。現在全世界的衛生機構都在追蹤每一個訊號,看接種者身上發生的事是否與疫苗相關。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他補充了機制層面:電子病歷能告訴研究者,一個人在什麼時間接種、之後發生了什麼。他說,現在對這款疫苗安全性的確定程度,比任何其他產品都高,和說明書上寫的一致。

Fridman 在這裡做了一個自我限定:他自己打了兩針輝瑞,他關心的是科學家和科學傳播者在溝通上做錯了什麼,疫苗本身安不安全倒在其次。

我聽過的一些科學傳播者讓我很失望,因為他們說話沒有共情。他們沒有把自尊心放到一邊,真正去聽別人說話。那些人沒有博士學位,可能大學都沒上過生物課,但他們有孩子,他們害怕,他們不知道該信誰。(Lex Fridman)

他特別點出了一個結構性問題:這些人不知道該不該信輝瑞的CEO,因為CEO可能有別的動機,可能只在乎錢。他們只能用常識去提問。科學家對這些人的態度,常常是居高臨下的,甚至翻白眼。

布林拉接住了這段,而且接得很實。

謙遜是一種美德。你受過教育,並不意味著你有謙遜、有共情,或者有良好的人格品質。教育從來不是、也永遠不會是衡量這些美德的指標。那些這樣做的人錯了,而且他們實際上沒有為公共衛生服務,因為他們在削弱它。人不蠢。他們能看出你不尊重他們,不尊重他們瞭解情況的需要,而這關係到他們自己、他們的母親、他們的孩子的健康。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他給了一個判斷:現在沒接種的人,絕大多數是因為害怕,沒有別的議程。真正有議程的是一小部分人,他們從這種焦慮裡賺錢。

CEO被FBI逮捕了,和一張妻子的照片

布林拉講了一個自己的經歷。

有人在網上寫:輝瑞CEO被FBI逮捕了。他看到了,笑了。他說,行吧,他們已經到了這個地步。

這個謠言的用意很清楚:在人們心裡種下懷疑。如果FBI都抓了他,那這疫苗我大概不能打。

一週後,同一個網站發文說,輝瑞CEO的妻子死了。文章裡配了他妻子的照片。

有人發給我,這次我不笑了,我生氣了。我趕緊找我的孩子,告訴他們:如果你們看到什麼,媽媽沒事,別擔心。然後我想起來,她在希臘還有年紀很大的父母。我們開始打電話過去,確保他們知道。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他點出了這件事的性質:寫這些東西的人非常清楚他妻子沒有死,也非常清楚她會因為接種疫苗後死亡這個敘事被放進標題。這是有意為之的敘事建構,目的是從普通人的壓力和焦慮裡獲利。

這段話是整場訪談里布林拉最不像CEO的一段。他沒有講資料,沒有講流程,只講了他怎麼給希臘的岳父母打電話。

Fridman 在這裡做了一個對稱的提醒。人們用常識去懷疑政客和權勢人物,這個本能是對的,同樣該用來懷疑那些靠“他們在騙你”賺錢的人。他自己都驚訝,靠製造這種懷疑能賺多少錢。

獨立思考,帶著開放的心態批判性思考。每個人都有可能操縱你,但每個人也都有做好事的能力。(Lex Fridman)

他一再強調的那個100%

Fridman 提了一個有點尖銳的問題:布林拉在推特上發過疫苗有效性100%這類資料,這算不算過度呈現?即使技術上說沒錯,也可能被誤讀。

布林拉的反應很快:我從沒說過100%。

每次我講話,如果出現100%這個數字,我會趕緊補一句:在生物學裡,沒有什麼是100%的,因為樣本量一旦上去,就不會是100%。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他解釋,研究中確實有100%的專案,比如死亡保護,比如南非那組資料。但他強調,樣本量擴大後,100%會變成95%、96%,方向才是重點。

他說自己發推非常謹慎,而且有人會給他提供第二、第三意見,確保不會造成誤解。原因他也說了:他知道人們正在聽他說每一句話,他既要表達清楚,也要維持信任。

我不認為一個只挑資訊、只強調正面的人,是值得信任的人。我希望我和輝瑞是被信任的。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

關於加強針,他給了一條時間線,也給了自己一個說明。疫苗剛出來那幾個月,人們問要不要再打一針,他的回答是不知道。到了2021年4、5月,第一批資料出來,他開始說,第二針之後8到12個月可能需要加強針,之後大機率是每年接種。他每次都會加一個前提:在沒有新變異株的情況下。

然後Delta來了,加強針的時間點從6個月提前到3個月。現在Omicron來了,兩針可能不夠,三針有效,很多國家已經把第三針提前。

關於會不會需要專門針對Omicron的新疫苗,他的回答很謹慎:不知道,未來幾週會有更多資料。如果需要,我們能做出來。他給了一個產能數字:目前大約每季度10億劑,一年40億劑。如果一半產能切換到新疫苗,一半保留舊疫苗,全年仍然是40億劑。

強制接種:他在輝瑞做了,不建議國家做

Fridman 問了疫苗強制令。布林拉的回答可以拆成兩層:作為僱主的決定,和對國家政策的看法。

作為僱主,他做了強制接種。執行時留了健康、宗教等豁免。做這個決定的時候,輝瑞的員工接種率已經是90%,強制令把它推到了96%。

那10%裡有一部分人是永遠不會動的,我感覺。因為無論如何,有一小部分人是真的害怕,他們打心底裡不舒服。在我們這個案例裡,它起作用了,把接種率推到了96%。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他補了一句很人性的賬:這6個百分點對應的那些人裡,會有很多人不得病,會有一些人不會死。

但問到國家層面,他把決定權推回給了各國的公共衛生官員,說這不該由他回答。

Fridman 在這裡給出了明確的反對意見,理由落在自由上,跟醫學無關。

從蘇聯出來的我,認為在公共層面、聯邦層面搞強制令是個很糟的主意。即使它對全民健康有好處,這個國家有一種東西叫保住自由,它非常有力量。費盡力氣去說服人們接種,讓他們自己選擇接種,同時保留不接種的自由,這才是真正有力量的東西。對我來說,直接強制是很懶的做法。(Lex Fridman)

這段話背後的邏輯是:強制能快速提高數字,它消耗的是社會信任這筆本金。用一次強制換來的接種率,可能讓下一次公共健康動員變得更難。

孩子、恐懼,和一個父親的立場

關於兒童接種,布林拉的態度很明確:應該打,5到16歲都該打。

Fridman 請他站在反對者的立場上做一次最強的論證。布林拉沒有直接接這個招,他講了一個在疫苗獲批前遇到的場景。

我遇到過很多家長,他們非常害怕,但怕的是沒有疫苗,疫苗本身反而不在他們的恐懼裡。他們對著我喊:把疫苗給我,什麼時候給我,我真的很害怕。我覺得這不公平:我打了,我丈夫打了,我大兒子打了,而我那個小寶貝,因為年齡不夠,沒有保護。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他說,現在反過來了,有些家長怕的是疫苗本身,人數少一些,但他們更怕的是孩子出事,因為父母愛孩子勝過愛自己。

Fridman 繼續追問:孩子感染後的重症率和死亡率確實很低,這個怎麼算?

布林拉的回答是:低,但孩子確實會死,確實會進醫院。他加了一個常被忽略的維度:學校一旦出現病例就得停課,這種中斷對孩子健康和成長的代價同樣真實。

他拿小兒麻痺做對比:現在還有幾個孩子得小兒麻痺?比因新冠住院的孩子少得多。所有人都在打這個疫苗。Fridman 指出小兒麻痺對孩子的致死率更高,布林拉的回答是:現在不高了,那為什麼還要打?因為需要保護。

這段對話裡,Fridman 提了一個更根本的問題:mRNA 是第一次大規模用在人身上。家長給孩子做決定時,是在替一個不能自己決定的人承擔風險。

布林拉把立場轉了一下:

選擇給孩子接種,是選擇讓某個東西不能傷害他們,那個東西就是疾病。這就是我們一直以來做疫苗的原因。我知道有人為自己、為孩子擔心。但我是一個科學家,也是一個父親。我告訴你們,疫苗對孩子是很好的東西。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

這段話在邏輯上成立,它沒有正面回應新技術的具體擔憂。對一個本來就猶豫的家長來說,“我是科學家也是父親”這種身份背書,抵不過“這個技術以前沒這麼大規模用過”這個事實性疑問。整場訪談裡反覆出現同一個模式:輝瑞能給出極其紮實的流程資料,面對未知的不確定性時,給出的往往是信心,缺少的是不確定性的邊界。

五天,一天兩次,住院率從十降到一

訪談後半段,話題轉到了口服藥 Paxlovid。布林拉在這裡的語氣明顯更興奮,他用了真正的遊戲規則改變者這個說法。

機制很直白:這是給已經感染新冠的人用的。連續五天,早晚各一次,一天兩次,一共五天療程。

原本十個人會住院,現在只有一個會住院。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

他提了一個前提:這個資料樣本量小,沒有人死亡,所以在死亡保護上是100%有效。他立刻補了限定:真實世界裡樣本量一大,可能就是99%而不是100%。

即便打了折,這個數字對醫療系統的意義仍然很大。他點出了歐洲和美國每次疫情高峰時真正的問題:ICU滿了,醫院癱瘓了,擇期手術要推遲,其他手術要推遲,因為沒有床位。一款能讓人待在家裡、不用住院、不會死亡的口服藥,直接卸掉的是整個醫療系統的壓力。

關於伊維菌素(ivermectin),Fridman 問得很直接。布林拉的回答也很直接:

作為科學家,我和我們的科學家討論過,他們看不到任何理由,讓一個寄生蟲藥能作用於新冠。他們沒有看到任何一篇論文描述有人用了它產生了效果。我不認為有任何一篇發表在同行評審期刊、任何可靠科學期刊上的論文支援這個說法。我們專注於救人,不專注於荒唐的東西。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

Fridman 做了反駁:確實有不少論文,只是研究規模小,沒有決定性證據。

布林拉的回答是:我沒見過可靠的,不管大小。有些大樣本研究已經被撤稿,說明它們不成立。

他提到了更早的氯喹,說了一句“我的天”,然後反問:有多少人因為那個死了?

這段對話的價值在兩種認知路徑的對照。Fridman 的路徑是:證據不足,所以保持開放,等更多資料。布林拉的路徑是:機制上說不通,所以不必等。前者更符合科學哲學,後者更符合藥物開發的工程效率。兩種路徑在大部分時候會得出同樣的結論,在證據尚未充分的真空地帶,它們會分道揚鑣。

死亡是生命最偉大的發明

訪談最後,Fridman 問了兩個大問題。第一個是:你會想到自己的死亡嗎?你怕死嗎?

布林拉的回答很誠實,也很普通。

我年輕時和很多人說過,我不怕死,我根本不在乎。我第一次開始覺得我想活下去,是在有了孩子之後。然後我開始想,天哪,我希望能活著看到他們結婚,希望他們還能看到自己的孩子。所以如果說有什麼讓我害怕,那就是我可能不再參與他們的生活,我不能再看著他們了。我希望上面有另一個世界,這樣我就能從上面看著他們。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

Fridman 接了一句:從上面,視野不錯。

第二個問題是:生命的意義是什麼。他只給了布林拉兩分鐘。

布林拉引用了喬布斯的一句話:死亡是生命最偉大的發明。它清除舊的,給新的讓出位置。

生命就是向前走,生命就是創造新東西。也許每個人都是貢獻者,但沒有誰是擁有者。永遠在創造新的東西,永遠如此。往這個世界上新增一點美,也許再加一點愛。(阿爾伯特·布林拉)

這場訪談播出時是2021年12月,Omicron 剛開始擴散。幾年後再看,有些判斷被驗證了,有些沒有。加強針成了常態,年度接種也成了很多國家的安排。對機構和藥企的信任,沒有隨著資料積累而回升,反而繼續下滑。

這場對話裡最值得記住的東西,藏在一個結構性矛盾裡:

做出突破需要極高的效率,維持信任需要極高的透明和極慢的耐心。這兩件事在同一家公司、同一套流程裡,天然衝突。

輝瑞把疫苗的開發週期壓縮到了極致,靠的是把錢、把風險、把組織慣性全部一次性押上。這套打法在科學上極其成功,在溝通上幾乎必然失敗。它沒有給解釋留出時間,也沒有給疑問留出位置。等到疑問積累起來,再想用資料去回答,已經晚了。

Fridman 在節目開頭說了一段話,值得原樣記住:

有一群人告訴你,只有他們掌握真理,政府會救你,公司會救你,科學、權威、專家、機構會救你。還有一群人同樣告訴你,只有他們掌握真理,政府會害你,公司會害你,科學、權威、專家、機構會害你。這兩群人中都有善意的和惡意的,都有英雄和騙子。而我認為殘酷的事實是,這個世界上沒有人能絕對確定地告訴你,誰是誰。你必須用你自己的頭腦。(Lex Fridman)

如果你要在這件事上做出自己的判斷

  • 分清三層問題:藥物本身的安全性和有效性,是可以用資料回答的醫學問題;監管機構的披露節奏,是行政和治理問題;公眾人物的表達方式,是傳播問題。三層混在一起討論,永遠得不出結論。
  • 看資料時先看樣本量和置信區間,再看結論。100%在小樣本里沒有意義,它只說明還沒觀察到,不說明不會發生。聽到任何一方給出極端數字,先問樣本有多大。
  • 對旋轉門保持警惕,同時往前再走一步:查具體的人、具體的決策。這個人在什麼時間、以什麼身份、參與了哪個審批。泛泛的懷疑沒有資訊量,具體的追查才有。
  • 對靠製造恐懼獲利的人,和對靠掩蓋問題獲利的人,用同一套標準。前者說“他們都在騙你”,後者說“一切都沒問題”,這兩種話都在替你做判斷。真正的資訊通常帶著限定條件,聽起來沒那麼痛快。
  • 接種、加強針、給孩子接種,這幾個決定可以拆開做。疫苗對重症的保護、兒童感染的低風險、新技術的長期不確定性,是三個獨立的判斷。不必因為其中一項存疑,就推翻全部。
  • 遇到看不懂的醫學宣告,去找原始論文,別停在二手解讀。看摘要、看樣本量、看有沒有對照組、看有沒有被撤稿。這四步能過濾掉絕大部分噪音。
文稿來自公開 Kaggle 資料集(rajneesh231/lex-fridman-podcast-transcript),為早期自動轉錄存檔,可能存在識別錯誤。
The following is a conversation with Albert Berla, CEO of Pfizer. If you'd like to skip ahead to our conversation, the timestamps as always are below. But if not, please allow me to say a few words about truth and human nature. Specifically, about two groups of people throughout history that seek to lay claim to the truth. The first group will tell you that only they possess the truth, and that the government will save you, the company will save you, the science, the authorities, the experts, the institutions will save you. The second group, too, will tell you that only they possess the truth, and that the government will hurt you, the company will hurt you, the science, the authorities, the experts, the institutions will hurt you. Both groups have the benevolent and the malevolent, their heroes and their charlatans. And I think the hard truth is that no one in this world can tell you with absolute certainty which is which. You have to use your mind. This is the burden of being human, of being free. Don't blindly follow any leader, neither the emperor nor the martyr who points out that the emperor has no clothes. And then there's the lessons of history. Vaccines have saved hundreds of millions of lives in the past century, and in general, the advance of medicine has saved billions of lives. If you ignore the power of science, you're not being honest with the lessons of history. And if you ignore the corrupting nature of power and money within institutions, including governments and companies that led to the suffering and death of hundreds of millions in the past century, you are once again not being honest with the lessons of history. I announced that I will be having this conversation with Albert Burla, Pfizer CEO, and a lot of people wrote to me. I would like to say that I was and am and always will be listening and learning with an open mind from everyone. My own opinion, worth little as it is, is that the development of the COVID vaccines is one of the greatest accomplishments of science in recent history. For the rest, from safety and efficacy to policy and economics, I stand humbled before a complicated world full of fear and anger. A small number of malicious people from all walks of life will use that fear and anger to divide us, because the division makes them money and gives them power. I took two shots of the Pfizer vaccine. This was my decision. I don't ever want to force this on anyone, and I certainly don't want to dismiss your concerns or worse, you as a person if you choose not to get vaccinated. I can assure you one thing, in this conversation, and in any conversation, the choice of questions I ask and words I say is mine and mine alone. When my words fall short, as they often do, it is only because of the limitations of my mind and of my speaking ability. It is not due to pressure or fear. I'm not afraid of anyone. I cannot be bought by anyone with money, power, or fame. I hope to prove this to you and to myself in the coming years. This life is short, and to me, without integrity, it is not worth living. People sometimes talk down to me, call me naive. Perhaps they are right, but it is who I am. I think this life, this world, this, our human civilization is beautiful. And as Dostoevsky said, beauty will save the world. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast, and here's my conversation with Albert Borla. The development of the COVID 19 vaccine was one of the greatest accomplishments of science in recent history. No matter what, this should give people hope for the future. And yet, it is more of a source of division. I hope we can discuss both the inspiring and the difficult ideas in this conversation so that we can do our small part in healing this division. I hope so. Take me through the day of November 8th, 2020, when the Pfizer team were waiting for the results of the phase three clinical trials. We had assembled in a very small office that we are having in Connecticut, very few people. There were five, I think. And in another place, what we call the Data Monitoring Committee, which is a group of experts, independent experts, they're on Pfizer, we're going to have the opportunity to unblind the data and then tell us if the study needs to continue or if it is successful or if it fails. And we were waiting for their call. So the call came a little bit later than what we expected, which created a lot of anxiety to all of us, but came around, I think, two o clock. You're just sitting there waiting? What were you feeling? Sitting there waiting and teasing one another, drinking coffee, making jokes. So how did you feel like when you heard the results, the successful results? Free, liberated, happy. Like if a huge weight that was on my shoulders was lifted. I heard you said, I love you to the team. I did. This is how we speak in Mediterranean. Listen, maybe it's the Russian thing too. I love love, so I appreciate that kind of celebration. So looking back from that moment to before, how much did it cost to develop the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine? What was it like making the decision to make that investment when the risk is very high and you don't know if it's going to be successful? You know, we do a lot of that anyway. This is what we do in our daily work. We are putting money. We are investing in research, which is highly risky. The difference in that case was that we didn't risk at all. We put it all in. We put everything in one go so that we don't lose time. Usually, we will spend 50 millions. And then if that goes well, then we will spend another 50. And then if it goes well, then 100. Here, we put all together a little bit more than $2 billion, $2.3 billion. And it was a significant decision. But it was a very easy decision to make in the context of what we were living at that time. It was a pandemic. People were scared. We were scared. We didn't know how tomorrow would look like. We were living unprecedented situations. And we knew that we have capabilities that may help. So there was not a second question or choice. We go all in. When you make decisions like that, you're the CEO of a company that needs to make money and that hopes to do a lot of good in the world. How much of both of those things are part of the calculation? So when you said it was an obvious choice, I think you've said a bunch of things of the kind of saying we need to go all in, sort of very boldly diving in. How much was that the world is facing uncertainty and fear and potentially destructive pandemic in the early days, just when you're seeing the full uncertainty before us, don't know how it's going to unroll? And how much of it is this may also be a good financial decision to take this risk? Yeah, I think about it all the time. And I know very well that if you focus too much on making money, you will never make. You should focus in what is the real value driver. And the real value driver, it is to make breakthroughs that change patients lives. If you don't do that, you will never make money. If you do that, don't worry. Things will fall into place, and also money will follow. But the mentality of the company is to be how to help the patient. And that's what the management was that the shareholders want, because that's the only way that we can create value. In this particular case, we're not thinking at all about what are we going to make when we sell it or if we don't sell it. Because what we were focusing 100% was how to bring a solution to the world that will help all of us change the fear that was bringing hope to the world. And as always, when you do that, you will have good returns as well. On a philosophical level, on a human level, do you ever worry that the pressure to cover the costs that were invested, to develop a new drug, to develop this vaccine, harms your ability to conduct unbiased studies? Not at all, because the studies are highly regulated. Everybody knows what regulators, and when I say regulators, FDA, European authorities, UK authorities, Israeli authorities, Japanese authorities, Canadian authorities, want to see how the study needs to be conducted and what exactly they need to see to approve it or not. So clearly, everybody takes into consideration how much money I'm going to invest and what is the chances that I'm going to lose them. But what you can do is to change the rules of the game so that you won't lose the money. There are very well established methodologies that would say with very high precision if your medicine is effective, if your medicine is safe. And those are there for all and are playing with the same rules. Do you have an intuition about why is the FDA trying to get 75 years to release the Pfizer data? They're trying to request that it will not be released for 75 years. And then maybe the broader version of that question is do you think people should have sort of full transparency and immediate access to the data, immediate on the scale of weeks, not years? I think the relations with regulators, they have been always very transparent. And there are a lot of laws that they are forcing regulators and companies to put out their interactions and what exactly was discussed. Now, to go into specific details of some discussions, I don't know what is the reason that FDA wants to take the time. And I'm sure they have very good reasons. Well, let me just say my side of it. It doesn't look like a good reason. It looks like maybe it's because I come from the Soviet Union. Now, this is not you saying this. This is me saying this. There seems to be a bureaucracy that gets in the way of transparency. That's always the challenge with government. So government is very good at setting rules and making sure there's oversight of companies and people and so on. But they create, they slow things down, which is a feature and a bug. And in this case, they slow down so much. I think the reason they set it at 75 years is because they set a rate of being able to only review 500 pages of data a day or something like that. And that's a very kind of bureaucratic thing, where in reality, you could just show the data. And it's not like something is being hidden. But in the battle to win people's trust, to inspire them with science, it feels like transparency is one of the most beautiful things, one of the most powerful things that the FDA has. FDA has the potential to be one of the great institutions of our country. And this is one example that it feels, to me, like a failure. So in your perspective, you're saying, I'm sure they have a good reason. So to you, the FDA is this black box that you submit things to once they approve. You know that those are the rules. It's approved. That's it. But this is not a black box. We know very well what is the process. Everybody knows very well what are the processes. The review process also, it is very detailed. They have scientists of very, very high caliber. Not every regulator in the world, but the Europeans, the BRIDs, the FDA clearly, they have very, very high caliber of scientists that they are going into a lot of details. And also, basically everything for a study is really released by law in the specifications of the product, but it's a very detailed document that it is issued and has basically the essence of everything that was discussed. I don't know about specific documents if take them time to release, but clearly this is not a black box type of process. A lot of this stuff is how do you effectively communicate to the world about the incredible science that's been done, about the processes that were followed. I agree with you. And then sometimes it's just in eloquence in communication. It's not that there's a failure process. It's in eloquence of communication and silence. Silence in the moment when clearly a lot of people are bothered and have questions. This is when you speak out and you explain exactly why as opposed to letting the sort of distrust build up and linger because the result is there's a very large percentage of the population that just, I mean, it divides people and science suffers, I think. And also the effectiveness of solutions suffers like the vaccine and so on. I asked a few folks I know if they had challenging questions for you. I'm sure many of them answered your call. Yeah, many friendly folks out there. By the way, I'm sweating not because this is a difficult conversation, it is, but it's also hot in here for the record. So one of the folks is Mr. Jordan Peterson. I don't know if you know who that is. He's a psychologist and intellectual and author. He suggested to me that I raised the concern that there's a close working relationship between Pfizer, FDA, and CDC. So we talked about FDA. Do you worry that this affects both positive and negative Pfizer's chances of getting drugs approved? The fact that there's people that worked at the FDA that now work at Pfizer, Pfizer, FDA, that there's a kind of pipeline. Does this worry you that it affects your ability to do great, unbiased work? I have zero doubts that this is not affecting at all their ability to be unbiased and regulate. And in order to, for the system also reinforces that by creating significant time barriers. If someone moves from an industry to FDA, she won't be able to deal with topics for a period of time. And then for even an enhanced period of time with topics that are related with a company he or she may come from. I think these regulators, they are really very strict. Rightly so. If anything, I feel sometimes that maybe they should be a little bit more open minded, particularly when it comes to new technologies, rather than trying to judge and implement the same framework of variation of new technologies to all. They are always as regulators in the conservative side. But always, always, they are unbiased and they are trying the best. And it's not only one or two people. They have processes to make sure that there are self checks and balances within the agencies, both in CDC and in the FDA. Difficult decisions, they bring external experts that they should express. Easy decisions, they are internal experts that they are debating a lot. And if there are disagreements, they elevate them. So I think we are lucky to have good regulators. I think I agree with what you said before, as with all governmental agencies, there is bureaucracy. And the bureaucracy needs to be addressed. And by saying bureaucracy is not relaxing the bar. The bar needs to remain high. But focusing on what matters rather than on the detail. So you don't, I've been reading quite a bit about history. You don't worry about human nature and corruption that can seep in. You're saying institutionally, there's protections against this. I think there is always the fear of corruption, particularly when you speak about public servants. But clearly the risk is very different country by country. And speaking about agencies by agencies, I think the regulatory agencies have a very good track record in history of the US, of Europe, of England, of very, very good track record of integrity. It's something I think about. So I grew up in the Soviet Union and I need to perhaps introspect this a little bit. But when I was growing up, ethically, there was a sense that bribery is the only way you can get stuff done. That was the system of the time. Like you get pulled over by a police officer. Like obviously you need to bribe them. I mean, it was like the way of life. And then so coming to this country was beautiful to see that the rule of law has so much power. And ultimately the rule of law when enacted, when it holds up, it gives people freedom to do the best work of their lives. But there's still human nature. And that worries me a lot here. And again, it goes back to the perception, the communication, when there's people that have worked at Pfizer and an FDA, at the CDC, you look at their resume, they have those things on their resume, it worries people. Are these great leaders that we are supposed to see as authorities, are they playing a game on us? I would say that I recognize what you said about what happened in, or what, I'm sure that what you described in the country that you're coming from, it was how you experienced it. And I know that there are other countries that you need to do these things to do your job. I don't think it's the case in this country, particularly when it comes to those agencies that you mentioned. I think they have a very high track record. And also, I don't think that there are a lot of people that they are worried about it or doubt it. I'm sure, like everywhere, there will be a minority, but the vast majority of the Americans, the vast majority of the Europeans, the vast majority of the Brits, the vast majority of the Israelis, they trust what FDA or EMA or CDC or MHRA will say. MHRA will say. Still, there's currently a distrust of big pharma in the public. Maybe this is something I'd love to hear your comment on. There's distrust of science when it's tangled up with corporations and government institutions, This is an end with all the caveats that the numbers are small, no one died. It was 100% efficacy on deaths. Of course, I'm sure that in real world, when the numbers are getting very high, we may have 99 instead of 100. But these are spectacular results for something that you can take home and stay home. The biggest problem right now in Europe, in the US, when we have surges, every time that we have a surge of COVID, it is that the ICUs are full, the hospitals are paralyzed, they have to postpone elective surgeries, they have to postpone other operations because they don't have the capacity because of that. Keeping people out of the hospitals, home, keeping people without dying, it is something that I didn't have before. And this is a significant, significant game changer. I have to ask a controversial, difficult question. What are your thoughts about ivermectin? Has it sufficiently been studied? Has Pfizer considered it in its, like I said, incredible development of the antiviral as a comparator or that kind of thing? Just investigate it in general. The reason I bring it up, because I've read quite a few criticisms of people. There's been some comparisons of paxilovir to the ivermectin, and I think people should look up. There is Dr. John Campbell that describes that comparison and makes that claim, and there's quite a lot of people that debunk or argue against that. You can do your own research, but there is a lot of people that kind of see this free drug without patents on it and say this could be the savior. So can you just speak to that comparison? It's not the first time. If you remember, there were other compounds that were claimed that they are the solution to COVID, and clearly they were proving that they're not. There are compounds that are solutions and compounds that are not. I, as a scientist, and I discuss with our scientists, they don't see any reason why a medicine like ivermectin, which is a parasitic site, to be able to act on COVID, and so they don't see that there's any connection, and they haven't seen any paper that describes someone that used it that had any results. I'm sure that there will be some people that will claim, because people are claiming anything, but I don't think that there was any paper in any peer review magazine, any reliable scientific magazine, to support this claim. So we are focusing on saving people's lives. We are not focusing on craziness. Well, to push back, there is quite a lot of papers, but the studies are small, so there's no conclusive evidence, and that's the point. I haven't seen any that it is reliable. I don't know where are these, small or big, reliable. I haven't seen any. Well, some of the big ones have been retracted, which means they weren't legitimate. Yes. Yeah, so? This is definitely something that people need to look into, the people that kind of question are the effectiveness of ivermectin, definitely something to think about, and I think it's the reason that past public. It was chloroquine alone before. Yes. For God's sake. That's why PaxLovid. How many people died because of that? Yeah, this is the dangerous thing. This is the sad thing. PaxLovid has been studying thousands of people and will be under the scrutiny, not only of regulators, but as we will go into the implementation, as it happened in many countries, they will monitor to see what's happened. Let's say that whatever we do, once it is out there, within a few weeks, they will know all hospitals, if it works or not, because they will see the statistics. We've gone through one of the more difficult periods in recent human history over the past two years, like as a society. What gives you hope about the future for our human civilization? You look into the next few years. I think the human ingenuity. I think although there is, the world always is progressing, although there are a lot of things that need to be fixed in the society of 2020. The society of 2020 is better at large than things 50 years back, 100 years back, in all different aspects, from poverty, for human rights, from science, from quality of life, from any aspect. I am positive that humans can create and always create a better future and will continue doing so. You have helped save the lives of millions of people, helped improve the quality of their lives, but you yourself are just one biological organism with an expiration date. Do you ponder your mortality? Do you think about your death? Are you afraid of death? That's a very interesting question. I was discussing with a lot of people that I was fearless of death, I couldn't care less, when I was young. The first time that I start feeling that I want to be around was when I had kids. And then I started feeling that, oh gosh, I hope I will be around to see their wedding. I hope they will be around to see their children. So if there is something that scares me, the possibility I will not be part of their lives anymore and I will not be watching. I hope there is life upstairs, so I will be able to watch them from there. From upstairs, get a nice overview. Let me ask the big ridiculous question. And you only have two minutes or less to answer it. What is the meaning of life? What's the meaning of this whole thing? You said ingenuity is the thing that gives you hope. We seem to be all busy trying to help each other, trying to build a better world. Why are we doing that? I would repeat something that Steve Jobs has said. Death is life's biggest invention. It eliminates the old and gives place to the new. Life is all about moving forward. Life is all about creating new things. And maybe everyone is a contributor, but no one is the owner. And always creating something new. Always. Adding something beautiful into the world, maybe a little bit of love. Hopefully. Albert, thank you so much. It's a huge honor that you go through some of these difficult questions with me today and that you give your extremely valuable time for this conversation. Thank you so much for talking today. Thank you for your interest and I'm happy, as I was telling you before, but I can brag with my kids that I was in your podcast because you are their hero. You made it. I made it. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Albert Burla. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Oscar Wilde. The truth is rarely pure and never simple. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time. like we've talked about. But they have to be entangled to achieve scale, oversight, and to achieve the kind of scale that Pfizer's been able to accomplish. So, how can Pfizer regain the public trust? How can you regain the public trust, do you think? Not regain, but sort of take steps to increase the public trust. Reputation is something that you can lose in buckets, but you can earn it back in drops. And once you've lost it, you are going to take a lot of effort to bring it back. And the pharmaceutical industry lost it. It's clear that the reputation of the industry in the last decade was on the lowest that we have seen ever. And there are many reasons for that, but clearly there are reasons that are related also with the behavior of the industry. That needed to change, and I'm hopeful that very few will disagree that the industry is a very different industry right now. That being said, I truly believe that if there is one lesson that stands out from the many lessons that we learned during COVID, is the power of science in the hands of the private sector. I think it was the private sector that came with solutions with diagnostic tests when we didn't have, solutions with respirators when we didn't have, solutions with treatments, solutions with vaccines. And I think that demonstrated very clearly to the world the value of thriving life sciences sector, private life sciences sector to society. That also affected very positively the reputation, both of the sector and of Pfizer. I'm not going to make the mistake to consider given. I'm not going to make the mistake that because our reputation is high, that will remain so. We need to earn it every day. Every day with everything we do, with everything we say, with the way we behave. And I hope that we'll rise to this occasion and we will do that. You've been at Pfizer for 28 years. Time flies when you're having fun. And you've become CEO in 2019. It is a company you love, a company you believe in. It's a company that has developed drugs that has helped millions of people. So let me ask yet another hard question on this topic of reputation. In 2009, Pfizer pleaded guilty to the illegal marketing of arthritis drug Bextra and agreed to a $2.3 billion settlement. How do you make sense of the fact that this happened to a company you love and that you believe in? Yes, the Bextra case in 2009 was related to things that happened in 2003. And the things that happened in 2003 were things that basically several of our reps did off label promotion. So they spoke with the physicians about off label use of the product, and they shouldn't. Can you clarify it? So off label are things that the FDA didn't approve, extra stuff. You basically say this drug does extra stuff that the FDA never approved. Correct, and this is something that it is allowed when physicians are speaking to physicians, but it is not allowed for the pharmaceutical companies to refer to these studies, because usually our studies that are happening off label. And apparently several of our reps in 2003, they did it. And we had to settle in 2009, and we paid a very big fine, as you said. The fine was related not to the severity of the conduct, but the size of the revenues. So the fines are, if Bextra was a small product, we would get a small fine. Bextra was a very big product, and we got a very large fine. Very bad, what happened in 2003. I don't think that these things happened since then. We have a stellar record from 2009 until now of complying with every single regulation and rule. We have internal processes to make sure that these are not happening by individuals that may have an interest. For example, to get a promotion, they may try and do things that are not the right things. And we have, more importantly, a culture in this company that really sets aside people that they think differently. So I didn't like what happened in 2003, but I believe a lot has changed in the 20 years that followed, or almost 20 years. So you're developing drugs, you're developing solutions to help millions of people, but there's risk involved. And so there will be lawsuits heading back your way because there's a lot of lawyers in the world, partially. How do you put that into the calculation of how you try to do good in the world? That some of the cost is the lawsuits. How do you not fall victim to thinking that it's just the cost of doing business, and that some of the lawsuits might actually represent real pain that people are going through? No, I think that we try always to do the right thing. And that's, as I said, very well embedded into our culture. If you don't do the right thing, sooner or later, you will pay for it, one way or another. And right now, for us doing the right thing, it is being able to find innovations to issues that are real, diseases that they do not have good coverage, good treatments right now. We try to find treatments that significantly surpass the current standards of care. And we try not only to comply with what regulators are asking us to do, this is what you need to do to prove the safety or the efficacy, but exceed them. No matter what we do on that, I'm sure that people will find opportunity because, as you said, there are a lot of lawyers to sue us. But we believe in the justice system and we believe that eventually, if you are doing the right thing, you will be on the right side of the history. I'm really glad you say that because focusing on doing the right thing, no matter the money, I believe is the best way to make money. That's exactly what I said. And also, in another way, in other realms, creating a product that people love is the best way to make money. So focusing on the core of the thing that makes people feel good, that brings value to people's lives. So I'm now in Austin, Texas. My good friend, Joe Rogan, he's been highlighting to me this aggressive marketing on mainstream media channels by Pfizer. So let me ask a general marketing question. Do you see this as a conflict of interest? Is it my bias, the reporting of news? That a lot of us, a lot of people, me included, look to these mainstream channels of news for kind of authority of like, what the heck's going on in the world? And if Pfizer is sponsoring many of these shows, there's a worry, it may be a perception thing, but there's also a natural worry that it would influence what they're talking about because they're afraid of losing the sponsorship. It's subtle, but at scale, it might have a serious impact. Do you worry about this? I think people could go one way or another because of multiple reasons. From our perspective, I don't think we have aggressive marketing. What we do, we go on TV and we are having ads about our products and they're highly regulated. I think it is the right of people to know, to learn that if there is a product like that. It's very clearly that we cannot say things that they are off label, that have not been approved. We need to have, every time we go on TV, as you know, FDA is forcing us to say also the bad things that can happen for a medicine. Sometimes that takes more time than the good things. And I don't think that we are doing aggressive marketing. Now, people could be influenced and can be biased in the podcasts or the other type of media activities that they have for multiple different reasons. Yeah, I know, but it's still, it's pressure. It's human nature. I mean, one of it is perception, but I worry about too. I think I have a ton of sponsors for this podcast, for example, and none of them ever asked me to anything. They're just, you know, I think likely that kind of pressure's not happening for Pfizer, but there's implied pressure sometimes. And I worry about that a lot because, you know, I look at academia, like I look for the good in people. I tend to believe most people are good or have the capacity to be good and desire to be good. When I came to MIT, I was a little bit disappointed, maybe heartbroken. How much pressure? I think unjustified pressure people felt from financial constraints, especially at MIT when there's, I think, a lot of money. People still felt constraints and they weren't, it wasn't bringing out the best in them. They weren't supporting each other. They weren't loving each other, like celebrating each other's successes. I don't want to blame money on everything, money constraints, but when you have sponsors, it just, I personally worry that it doesn't bring the best out of people. And so I feel like I want to put some responsibility on sponsors and great big companies like Pfizer to kind of not get in the way of the best of human nature, whether it's sponsoring podcasts, mainstream media, like, I don't know, athletes, whatever. You need to know that we are so, so careful with sponsorships. First of all, we have very few, very, very few. We have a team that for every single one, could be $2,000. They will try to see if there is a conflict of interest in the way we do it. And also what is the reputation of the persons or the programs that we are sponsoring? So I don't think, our friend, I think was from Texas. Yes. Yeah. I don't. Joe Rogan, yes. Yes. I don't think he got it right that we do those type of things. We don't. Oh, in terms of like having a negative effect on. Not even having aggressive sponsorships. We have very few. Yeah, when you clip them all together. And most of the sponsorships that we have, it is more on patient related organizations rather than we are very careful not to sponsor other things that can be perceived, not even influenced, but perceived that we may influence. So we are very, very careful on that. This is not the case with us. So with the incredibly fast development of the vaccine, could you tell me the story from the engineering to the science, to the human story of how you could do it so fast? By November, you even had the ambition to do it by October. It was in the initial days. How do you. Eight days later. In that time, how do you show that the vaccine is safe and effective given that I think previous vaccines have taken years to do that? Yeah, the vaccines take years to do that. And the time that it takes, it is basically the vast majority of the time to conduct the final phase three study, that is the confirmatory study. And you do that because the phase three study costs a lot of money, in our case, cost almost a billion. So you don't want to go and risk a billion in blinded data normally before you do a lot of experiments to make sure that the product that you're putting in the phase three is the right one. We didn't have that time. So we risked all the money. So we went into, we condensed all the time towards this phase three. But the phase three study had to follow all the rules that any study follows when we do this trial. Could you just briefly describe the basics of what is phase one, what is phase two, what is phase three? Let's say that there are so many phases when you try first of all to find what is the right vaccine. We tried from 20 different vaccines, we nailed down to four. And for those four, we selected eventually two and then eventually one. Once you have those selections, what is the dose you're going to use? And then we tried multiple different doses to see which one we think is the best. What does trying entail in those early days? You go first of all with smaller doses in humans. And then after you have done a lot of experiments in animals so that you can feel that it is safe enough to go to humans and then go with very low dose. And then you gradually increase the dose and then you monitor those humans to make sure that there are not any, let's say reactogenicity to what you are giving them. At the same time, you start to measure what it's doing in terms of immune responses. So you do that with multiple vaccines and you do that with multiple doses and you do that with multiple ages of people, young people, old people. And eventually from the 20 vaccines to multiple doses, to multiple schedules, is it after three weeks the second dose or is it after four weeks or after six months? All of that will inform you that I think this is the vaccine, this is the dose, this is the scheme that I believe will give me the best results. And when you have that, then you go to do what we call the phase three. This is a very big study with thousands of people where you use the vaccine that you think is the right one and a placebo. The placebo and the vaccine, they look identical. Nobody knows if is injected a placebo or a vaccine. The physician that makes the injection, the doctor doesn't know if he's injecting placebo or vaccine, he knows a barcode. Only the computer knows. In order to go into this computer, there are keys and there are at least two people that needs to put their keys so that someone can see the data. And those people, they have legal obligations never to do that, right? So before a certain point. So all of that is blind. The idea is that when you go into this study, you need to make sure that you are going with the right one. That's why it takes so much time. But the study is the study. You need to have a significant number of people that will give the two and then you let them live their lives. And then you see how many of them will get the disease. And then you see if there are differences in percentage of infections for the vaccinated compared to the non vaccinated. At the same time, you're monitoring all of them to see if there are differences in the safety profile. If those that go to placebo have the same, let's say, heart attacks with those that they didn't. They got the vaccine because heart attacks will happen if you have 50,000 people because it's part of life. These are the, all these processes are very, very, very well established and since years. What we did the last one was exactly the same as we did always. We just didn't lose time. We didn't, we're not careful with money. Instead of recruiting 50,000 people over a year, because we had let's say 30 hospitals doing the recruitment, we went with 150 hospitals doing the recruitment. That cost a lot of money. But instead of recruiting them in a year, we recruited them in three, four months. So I did this type of things by taking return on investment, taking costs out of the equation and we were able to achieve this result. But it's not the process, believe me. It is the heart of the people. People don't know what they can and what they cannot do. And if anything, they have a serious tendency to underestimate what they can do. And always, when you ask them something that is seemingly impossible, they will think out of the box to be able to deliver. We discussed about the timing. Instead of eight years, we then asked them to do it in six, we asked them to do it in eight months. Our normal manufacturing yearly production of Pfizer was 200 million doses of vaccines every year. That's what we are doing in the last 10 years. We didn't ask them to make 300 million doses for a new vaccine. We asked them to make 3 billion doses for a new vaccine. The discovery phase of a new molecule, like the treatment that we have now, the pill against COVID, takes four years. We didn't ask them to do it in three. We asked them to do it in four months, which is what they did. When you are setting this type of goals, they know immediately, they cannot just think within the box. And immediately, this is where the human ingenuity and the heart comes. And this is how they surprised all of us. So there's incredible science and engineering going on here. This is an incredible thing. Absolutely. This is what's bothering me, that the conversation in public is often not about that. It's about politics, unfortunately. Politics. So I spent the day with Elon Musk yesterday. He works with rockets. Similar situation as with Pfizer, in the sense that there's NASA and then there's this private company. And that's a source of incredible inspiration to people. No politics, very little politics. So this is part of the thing I'm trying to, I'm hoping to do our little part in this conversation to help untangle a little bit, just reveal the beauty and the power of the thing that was done here, especially with the vaccine, but other things that are being done with the antiviral drug. Let me just kind of linger on the safety. What can you say? There's a lot of people that are concerned that the Pfizer vaccine, by the way, of which I took two shots, no booster yet, is unsafe. What do you say to people that say that? No, they should not fear something like that. It's completely wrong. There is no medical product in the history of humanity that have been tested as much as this vaccine. Has been administered to hundreds of millions of people. And because of the importance of COVID, they have been scrutinized, those people, constantly. Right now, healthcare authorities are looking for every single signal around the world of people that they got the vaccine and try to see if it is vaccine related or not. There are electronic medical records that will tell us when and what happened to a person when he did got the vaccine. And we know now, we have so high certainty that it is so safe, exactly as the data sheet says about this vaccine, more than any other product. They should not be afraid of something like that. And they should not listen to information that it is misinformation, that it is spread on purpose. Well, I don't like the word misinformation because, you know, again, back to the Soviet Union, anyone who opposes the state is spreading misinformation. So you can basically call anything misinformation. That's the unfortunate times we live in, is you can call anyone, you can basically call anybody a liar and say, I'm the sole possessor of the truth. And just no offense to me, just because you wear a tie, it doesn't mean you're any more likely to be in the possession of the truth than anyone else. So. I wouldn't disagree with that at all. I don't think that. That's somebody who's not wearing a tie. And as you can, people can see that I'm not wearing a tie and you are. But it's not about being able, those that they have the power to impose on the others, the stigma that what you're saying is misinformation. But there are a few things that as society we have accomplished and science is one of them. And data is, and analytics of data is another one. And to say that something which is highly scientific by people that they are not scientists. I think that it is not what you're describing, what used to happen in Soviet Union or in any other autocratic regime in the world right now. But I definitely do think that the scientists, the public science communicators I've listened to over COVID have really disappointed me because they have not spoken with empathy. They haven't sufficiently in my view have put their ego aside and really listened to people. Yes, people that don't have a PhD, people who have not really, maybe not even taken like a biology course in college or something like that. But still they have children, they worry, they fear. They don't know who to trust. They don't know if they should listen to the CEO of Pfizer who might have other incentives in mind, who might just care about money and nothing else. And so they just use common sense and they ask questions. And I think to them talking down to them as if they're not intelligent and so on is something scientists have done almost like rolled their eyes. And that disappoints me because I think that's kind of what is the source of division. Humility is a virtue. Yes. And the fact that you are educated doesn't mean that you are having either humility or empathy or you have good human qualities. This was never and will never be a metric of judging this type of virtues. Those that they do this, they're wrong. And actually they are not doing good service to the public health because they're undermining. People are not stupid. They see if you're not be respecting them and if you're not respecting their need to learn because that affects their health, the health of the mother, of the kids. So I fully agree with you that we should be very patient to explain again and again and again what is happening. And the vast majority of the people that they don't get vaccinations right now is because they're afraid. It's not for any other reason. It's not that they have an agenda. What I'm saying it is there is a small number of people that they have made business for them to profit from this anxiety. I'll give you an example. I have been arrested by FBI. This is what someone wrote. I read it, I laughed. I mean, okay, this is where they take it. There was a reason why they wrote it that. The Pfizer CEO was arrested by the FBI because they want to create doubts in the minds of the people that they're afraid and say, look, if the FBI arrested him, likely I will not do the vaccine. But I laughed. A week later, the wife of the Pfizer CEO died. There is a picture in this website of my wife. Someone sends to me, now I'm pissed. I'm not laughing. I tried to find my kids to tell them, if you read something, mom is fine. Don't worry. Then I remember that she has very old parents back in Greece. We start calling them to making sure because so you know that that will be picked up by Greek newspapers and they will publish it, okay? They are those people that wrote these things. They know very well that my wife didn't die and died because she was vaccinated, right? So this is the narratives that they are on purpose forming to profit from the stress and the anxiety of good people. And that's something I have to kind of, people that listen to this, that kind of doubt institutions, I do also want to say that there's quite a few folks who realize they can make money from saying, the man is lying to you. The government is lying to you. It's all corrupt. It's all a scam. Big pharma is lying to you. They're manipulating you. I'm surprised at how much money can be made with that. And it's sad. So you have to, just as people use their common sense to be skeptical when listening to politicians and powerful figures, they should be skeptical to also when listening to sort of the conspiracy theorists or not even the conspiracy theorists, but people who raise questions about institutions. Think on your own, think critically with an open mind that everyone can be manipulating you, but also everybody has the capacity to do good. And I think science in its pure form, not when entangled with institutions is a beautiful thing. And in the hands of many companies, it is a beautiful thing at scale. Still, you have a lot of incentive as having created the vaccine at Pfizer, this incredible technology to sing it praises. So there's a kind of, you know, people are skeptical, like how much do we trust, how excited Albert is about this vaccine. So for example, I mean, not to do a Shakespearean analysis of your Twitter, but I think he tweeted something about a study with a 100% efficacy of the vaccine or in stopping and transmission or something like that. Do you regret sort of being like over representing the effectiveness of the vaccine, technically saying correct things, but just kind of like highlighting the super positive things that may be misinterpreted, you know, saying 100%? No, I never said something 100%. Every time I speak, if a number is 100%, I rush to say that in biology, there is nothing 100% because always there will be when you go to the millions, okay? There were in the study things that were 100%, for example, deaths or in South Africa. When we tried, there was 100% efficacy. Clearly, it's more numbers. When the numbers will become much bigger, the 100% will not hold, but will be 95, 96. So still the direction of this is the point. So I'm very, very careful what I tweet. And in addition to how careful I am, I have people that they are looking at and they're having second or third opinions to make sure that we don't put, why? Because I know that people are listening to me right now, everything I say, and I want to make sure that they continue not only being clear as to what I want to say, so there are no misunderstandings, but also I maintain the trust of the people. I don't think that someone who only cherry picks information and only emphasizes positive things, it's someone that is the one to be trusted. And I want me and Pfizer to be trusted. So many felt the vaccine was presented as a cure that wouldn't require regular booster shots. Was that something you believed early on? Did you always believe that many regular shots would be required? And maybe in a bigger picture, how many do you think this will, for the Pfizer vaccine, is it something you see that's taking a booster shot regularly, like annually? Yes, in the beginning when we had the first months with the vaccine, people would ask me, do we need another one? And I said, we don't know. I was very clear about it. Then around April, May, I start seeing the first data and I made statements that I think we will need a booster around eight to 12 months after the second dose. And then after that, annually vaccinations, this is what I said, believe is one of the most likely scenarios. And it was based on the data that I had, but then Delta came. And because I always making the caveat that with absent a new variant with everything we know. With Delta, it was proven that we need the booster to move to the three, to the six months. And this is what happened. And I still said, I think the booster is a six months. And then I think it will be an annual revaccination likely. We have to monitor to see the data, but this is the likely scenario. Now we have Omicron. And Omicron says that two doses might be challenging. We don't know exactly yet, but three doses work. So clearly a lot of countries already started moving now the third dose, not from six months to three. So that they will reduce the period that people will not be protected with the third dose. I don't know with Omicron if how long this will last. And frankly, I don't know if we will need a new vaccine tailor made to Omicron based on everything we know so far. We are monitoring and we will know way more in the weeks to come. If there is a need for a new vaccine, we will have it. And if there is a need for mass production of this new vaccine, I can also feel very comfortable that we will not lose any of our capacity that we have developed. Right now we are running at 1 billion almost approximately doses per quarter, four per year. And if we have to switch and have half of that in the new, half of that in the old, we will do still 4 billion doses. So I think the world should feel very, very comfortable that if there is a need, we will be ahead of the virus. Yeah, you did, you delivered or produced 3 billion this year vaccines and you're on track to do 4 billion next year. I mean, if we had a lot more time, we would talk about how the heck you achieve that kind of scale, it's truly incredible. Let me ask the policy question. What are your feelings about vaccine mandates in terms of, do you think the most effective way to vaccinate the population is to acquire it? Or do you go with the American way and give people the freedom to choose? I think it is a very difficult topic and a very difficult decision for whoever needs to make it. And clearly it's not me. It is the public health officials of every country that they have to make this decision. I have to make the decision for Pfizer employees. And I had to balance the fear of those that they work, that they want to feel that the others are vaccinated and the fear of those that they don't want to get the vaccine. And eventually I came to the decision that we will mandate it at Pfizer. We are flexible, we are giving exceptions, of course for health, maybe some religions, but we decided to mandate it. Now, at Pfizer, when we did this decision, we were at 90% vaccination rates when we said we are going to mandate it. And that took it up to 96. It works, right? This 10% was never going to move, I felt. Because no matter what, you have a small number of people that really are scared. And they don't feel comfortable to do it, okay? It worked in our case, we took it to 96%. I'm happy for those people. A lot will not disease and some will not die of those people. But it's not me to say, because the debate, it's serious debate. And there are a lot of pros and cons if you need to push people, if you need to give them the freedom. And it comes with the territory. If you are elected to run a country, you should be ready to make difficult decisions. And no matter what decision you make, there will be fake stories written about you as we talked about. You will not be able to please everyone. Yes. Well, let me just say that I think, again, coming from the Soviet Union, I think at the public level, at the federal level, mandates is a really bad idea. Even if it's good for the health of the populace, there's something about preserving the freedom is really powerful about this country. Like doing the hard work of convincing people to get vaccinated, to choose to get vaccinated if they want, but still have the freedom not to. That's a really powerful freedom. To me, it's super lazy to mandate. People should understand the science and want to get vaccinated. Do you think children need to get vaccinated? I do. I do think that they need to get vaccinated. So age ranges five to 16. There's a lot of parents that fear for the wellbeing of their children. Can you empathize with those parents? Can you steel man their arguments against the vaccine for their children? You know, because people know who I am. I had the opportunity to interact with parents before that was, let's say, approved. And there were so many, way more, that I had a lot of empathy because they were afraid for their kids because they didn't have a vaccine. And they were the ones that were speaking at that time. Bring me vaccine. When are you going to bring me a vaccine? I really fear. I feel that this is unfair, but I am protected. My husband is protected. My old son is protected. And my little sweetheart, because she's below the age, is not protected. Now that we have the vaccines, I'm sure that those that they are afraid of the vaccine, not of the disease, which are smaller number, admittedly. Also, they will have, if they're afraid of them, I'm sure that they will afraid even more about their kids because they love, I would say, more than they love themselves. So it's going to be this situation. And again, the same. How can you do to demonstrate, to convince people, to win the minds and the hearts of the people that this is the right thing to do? What do you think about that calculation? Because the risk for kids is very low. Kids do die. Kids do go to the hospital from COVID. Yes. But the rate is very low. The rate is lower, but kids, they do die. And how can you say that I'm not going to, I'm not going to protect a kid for something that it is likely to happen? And it is not only that. What happens in the school when they stop the education process because a kid got the disease and they don't have vaccines so that they can control. It is such a big disruption and such a big risk for the health of the kids that it shouldn't be a debate. Look, how many kids are having polio right now? Way fewer number than those that they're having COVID in the hospital. But everybody's getting the vaccine. Well, polio was deadlier for kids. But it's not now. So why a kid to do it now? Because it needs to be protected. Well, the unique thing about the COVID vaccine is a new type of technology too. So there's an extra concern. Choosing to vaccinate a child, you're making a choice that can potentially hurt them. That's the way parents that are hesitant about the vaccine think. I think choosing to vaccinate children makes a choice so that something could not potentially hurt them, which is the disease. That's why we are doing vaccinations since ever. I know that there are people that they're concerned for themselves and for their kids. What I know it is that I'm a scientist and I'm a parent. And I am telling you that vaccines is a very good thing for kids. And thank God we were able to develop. So we've talked quite a bit about the vaccine, but there's an incredible new technology that Pfizer is developing with the PaxLovid antiviral for COVID. Where does that stand? How does that work? And how are you able to develop it in four months? Like you said, and all of that in just a few minutes. First of all, what this is about, this is a real game changer. This is a course of treatment that you get only if you get the disease, you get COVID. Then what happens is that you will take for five days, pills day and night, and twice a day for five days. And instead of 10 people from those that disease to go to hospital, only one will go.

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