第 96 期·中文精讀

斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼:商業、投資與人工智慧中的大手筆

Stephen Schwarzman: Going Big in Business, Investing, and AI

黑石創始人回顧從零打造投資帝國的歷程,談決策魄力、風險判斷以及人工智慧對商業的影響。

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中文精讀由 AI 基於原始訪談改寫,非官方翻譯,可能存在偏差或錯誤;表述以原音訊與官方文稿為準。說明

黑石集團(Blackstone)管理著超過 5300 億美元的資產,聯合創始人斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼(Stephen Schwarzman)說,他這輩子最擅長的一件事,是在一條黑裙子上看見一根白線頭。

大多數人看那條裙子,只看見黑色。他看見的是那根線頭,還有隨之而來的問題:這東西本不該出現在這裡,它是怎麼來的?

這套方法他用了四十多年。判斷該往哪個行業下重注、該不該在某個政策轉向之前先動手、該不該花十分鐘在白宮角落裡跟總統聊一件事,靠的都是同一個動作。他把它叫做模式識別(pattern recognition),拆開看,是三個很樸素的習慣:認真聽別人說什麼,注意哪裡不對勁,然後提前把別人還沒說出口的問題替他想清楚。

黑裙子上的那根白線頭

施瓦茨曼描述自己看世界的方式,用的是這樣一個畫面:一件黑裙子上落了一根白線頭。它不該在那兒,但它就在那兒。這個小小的不協調,就是一切的開端。

就像在一條黑裙子上看見一根白線頭。大多數人無視那根線頭,他們只看見裙子。我總是看見那根線頭。我著迷的是,一樣東西怎麼會跑到它不該在的地方。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

這個訊號不需要多強烈。只要它出現在一堆原本自洽的事實裡,就值得停下來琢磨。他有個經驗:如果只找到一根不和諧的線頭,那可能只是偶然;如果能找到兩根,那基本就是一條通向某個方向的直線,而那個方向,往往是你從沒去過的地方。

這套邏輯聽起來像某種神秘直覺,其實不是。他反覆強調,這是盯著事實看的結果,接近科學發現的過程。真正稀有的部分在後面:當他把結論講給別人聽,幾乎沒有人行動。

我把我們要去哪裡、在做什麼、為什麼這麼做講清楚,幾乎所有人的反應都是,這很有意思。然後他們繼續做原來在做的事。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

為什麼?因為人待在自己的現實裡很舒服。只要那一刻沒有特別的理由把他拽出來,他就會一直待下去,哪怕這個現實最終被證明完全錯了。所以看見線頭只是第一步,真正的門檻是:你看見了,你信了,你還敢動手。

用電腦科學的語言說,施瓦茨曼擅長的是異常檢測(outlier detection),而今天大多數 AI 擅長的是識別那張永遠在重複的裙子。這兩件事的難度差得很遠。他也承認自己不懂 AI,說不準這種能力將來能不能被寫成程式碼。但他給了一個線索:這東西對他來說接近"硬接線",他天生就盯著那些不合常規的東西看。

人們會在你面前把自己交代乾淨

他小時候,家裡沒有人會抬高嗓門吵架。這種安靜的環境練出了一件事:他能聽。

聽的重點,是分清一個人說了什麼和他想說什麼。這兩件事經常不一樣。

人們大多會把自己暴露出來,不管他們覺得自己有多聰明。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

他給出的觀察清單很具體:看臉,看眼睛,眼睛是靈魂的窗戶;看錶情和坐姿;聽聲音,注意語速有沒有變快,音量有沒有變高。人在談論自己舒服和不安的話題時,身體會先於語言出賣他。

大多數人忙著組織下一句話,沒空掩飾,於是那些不想讓你知道的東西也一併流了出來。一旦你拿到這些資訊,接下來的對話就變得簡單,因為對方已經把你要的東西全說了。你能迅速判斷出這次談話有沒有共同利益,能不能談成一個結果。

這跟走進一間屋子、聽對方說一套話、然後照單全收,是完全不同的兩種處境。

見面之前,先替對方把難題想一遍

他區分兩種會面:偶遇,和約好的會面。後一種可以提前準備,方法也很簡單,就是提前把自己當成對方。

對方腦子裡在想什麼?每天面對的最大麻煩是什麼?比如你要見的是美國總統,那就更好辦了,媒體天天在報道他在操心什麼,長什麼樣、聲音什麼樣、關注點在哪裡,全是公開資訊。你要做的,是把那個還沒解決的難題拿出來,想出幾個別人沒提過的解法。

他講過一段九十年代初的經歷。他受邀去白宮,而他自稱是從無名之地來的人,這對他來說是大事件。他提前想好了兩三個角度。見到總統(老布什,他兒子的室友正是施瓦茨曼大學宿舍的室友)之後,兩人走到角落裡聊了大約十分鐘。事後他帶去的女伴問,你們聊了那麼久,在聊什麼?

他的回答是:世界上有件事正在發生,我想過幾種可能的處理方式,他很感興趣。

當然感興趣。一個沒有簡單答案的難題擺在那裡,而有人認真替你想過,誰會不感興趣?

這類對話之所以有效,是因為對方知道你在真心為他好、為局面好,跟我本人沒有關係。那麼他就會信任你,還會告訴你更多事,因為他知道你的動機很乾淨。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

偶遇的情況沒有準備時間,但方法一樣。你可以問對方最近在忙什麼、在想什麼、有沒有什麼事特別難辦。只要他信你,多半會說。然後你要做的就是立刻開始琢磨這件事。他舉了個例子:假如對方是一支總輸球的職業橄欖球隊老闆,那你不用打聽也知道問題在哪。工資帽制度下每支球隊的薪水總額差不多,輸球基本就三個原因,沒有好四分衛、沒有好教練、沒有一個會挑人的總經理。這些問題他們自己往往沒解決,甚至沒意識到。你順著問下去,他們很樂意聊。

越聰明的人越難做到這一點。聰明人很難從自己的問題裡走出來,去真正在意別人的問題。施瓦茨曼對此的說法是,他有個優勢,他從不覺得自己有多聰明。

創業是團體運動

談到第一次創業的人,他給的第一句話是:這是一趟顛簸的旅程。

心理上必須準備好事情會頻繁出錯。你會被扔進一堆你根本不知道存在的問題裡。比如租辦公室,對沒做過的人來說,這就是個難題:你連一份租約長什麼樣都沒見過,也不知道這個地段合理的租金是多少。所有東西都是新的,所有東西都要從頭學。

正因如此,他反對一個人單幹。

不幸的是,一個剛起步的創業者幾乎什麼都不懂。所以每件事都是新的。我認為重要的是不要孤身一人,因為這一切太壓人了。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

他給的理由很實在:你需要有人可以聊,而且這個人不能是配偶或愛人,因為連他們也會被你的問題煩到。你需要一個能交換經驗、能一起討論處境的群體。

阿里巴巴的例子他專門提過。馬雲告訴他,公司至少兩次走到過財務上的鬼門關。外界只記得馬雲,因為他成了公開的門面和驅動力,但真正撐住局面的是一群人。

壓力不只是瑣碎細節,還有心理負擔。大部分創業者在某個時刻都會懷疑自己在做什麼,因為進展不順,或者因為自己搞砸了卻不知道怎麼補救。人都在邊做邊學,而當你同時面對二十五個變數、其中四個大變數搞錯了,局面就會一團糟。這時候,一個真正聰明的外部顧問,或者每天和你一起幹活的夥伴,價值極高。

他特別想打破一個神話:一個人創造全部結果。回頭看那些成功的科技公司,幾乎每一家都有兩個人。谷歌是這樣,早期的微軟是這樣,蘋果也是這樣。人各有不同的技能,需要互相激發。

創業是團隊運動。而"創業者"這個詞,字面意思就是你是孤身一人。這是個神話,而且大部分時候只是個神話。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

所有旅程最終都是孤獨的

這是他在訪談裡說得最柔和的一段。

歸根到底,所有旅程都是孤獨的。有人支援當然好。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

但如果你把做成一件事當成頭號優先順序,你就得付出超人的努力。沒有人能靠兼職成功。當你準備投入百分之百、甚至百分之一百二十的力氣,你就需要支撐,需要身邊人理解這就是你生活的一部分。如果對方不理解,衝突就來了。

他的建議分兩層。一層是,要把對方放進你的生活,但不要把每一個微小的勝利和失誤都倒給對方,因為他們過一陣子就會膩。另一層是,要建立不同的生態:家庭生活、感情生活、孩子,這些是長久的部分;工作那邊,則是高度不可預測的部分。

他對公司裡剛有孩子的年輕員工說,至少每兩個月和伴侶出去一次,去一個沒有孩子、沒有麻煩的地方。精力好一點的,一個月一次。

你要讓兩個人的價值觀重新對齊。而且你們得開心。如果和你在一起的人只剩下處理問題,那很快就會變得很舊。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

開心這件事不能靠待在家裡解決,因為家裡只會冒出更多問題。你得離開,重新加固和啟用這段關係。他說,每次講完這條建議,年輕人都像眼睛上掉了一層鱗,說,天哪,我從來沒這麼想過,我整個人都陷在這些事裡了。

不覺得自己聰明,是一種競爭優勢

主持人提到,他認識的最聰明的人都說自己不聰明。施瓦茨曼的回答是,他從十幾歲中期到現在沒怎麼變過。

他在城市和郊區各長大過一段時間。他把當時的那套價值觀稱為中產階級價值觀,那也是他從小被教出來的東西。他反問:為什麼要變?這就是他本人。

後面的人生裡多出來的那些行頭,必須放在同一塊地基上。因為一旦開始丟掉真實的自己,那你還剩下誰?

他說自己從來沒有想成為別人的慾望。現在做的事情,是一個費城中產階級小孩不會做的事,生活確實變了形態。但人格的完整性有個好處:你能和所有來自那種背景的人保持連線。哪怕他見的人、進的場合已經完全不同,他看世界的鏡片始終是同一副。這在心理上非常舒服,也不需要他做任何實質性的調整,往前走就行。

慈善的起點是啟動一件新事

談到慈善,他先糾正了一個預設。

我不像你們預期的那樣看待慈善。我把它看成解決大問題、著手大問題、為此創辦新組織,跟我們在生意裡做的事情差不多。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

黑石增長的方式,靠的是不斷髮現新東西、把新東西建起來,把原來那件事越做越大並不是它的路徑。他做慈善是同一套動作:看社會上有哪些機會,啟動一件新事,把人聚起來,把大筆錢聚起來,最後總有人來問他,能不能寫張支票。

他說得很直白:

我不是早上醒來就問自己,今天怎麼把一大筆錢送出去。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

他看的是對人們重要的問題。有些事很小,但因為對某個人重要,他能共情,那個人遭遇了某種不公平,他就匿名給錢幫忙,這是大問題的一個微縮版本。

麻省理工學院的那筆捐贈屬於大的那一類。2018 年,他捐了 3.5 億美元,幫助建立新的計算學院(College of Computing)。原因有兩層。一層是競爭:他看到 AI、量子和其他關鍵技術領域正在全球範圍內展開競賽,美國需要加強。另一層是控制:他常去中國,也常在世界各地跑,他看到了掌握這些技術走向的必要性,否則它們被引入時,會重演網際網路和社交媒體那一幕,產生意料之外的後果,衝擊言論自由和自由民主制度的運轉。

關於 AI,他發現真正懂行的那一小群人內部觀點分歧極大。他恰好認識其中一批人,就去問,你為什麼覺得這東西是壞的?又去問另一個人,你為什麼覺得它是好的?

他想同時處理兩個問題:怎麼推進技術,以及怎麼管住那些壞的一面,比如勞動力被衝擊,而且這種衝擊可能比工業革命快得多。而好東西、甚至是偉大的東西,要怎麼才能被允許發生。

在他看來,這是社會面臨的重大議題之一,而意識到的人極少。他撞了進去,一看到就說,天哪,這是件大事,無論是從全球競爭的角度,還是從保護社會、造福社會的角度。

最後的方案是,把 MIT 的電腦科學教職規模翻倍,建成世界上第一所 AI 驅動的大學,成為全球學術研究界的樣板和燈塔,同時讓美國高校之間的競爭態勢更健康。因為如果 MIT 募到一大筆錢、把教職翻倍,其他學校一定坐不住。最終受益的是知識創造,是美國,也是世界。

他對這所學院的長線期待分成兩塊。一塊是科學進步,如果新學院能在校內充當召集力量,促進協調和溝通,那就是純粹的好事。另一塊是 AI 倫理,重要性不遑多讓。因為如果科學這一側引發了反彈,社會對這項領域知識進步的反應變得敵意十足,那科學進步和創新這盤棋就輸掉了。

讓四種力量坐在同一張桌子上

他把 AI 倫理的推進拆成四個必須整合的驅動力。

  1. 研究型大學
  2. 推動 AI 和量子研究的公司
  3. 最終會監管其中部分環節的政府
  4. 具備相關知識、受過訓練的媒體

第四項最容易被忽略,也最關鍵。他的擔心是,一個孤立事件被過度反應、病毒式傳播,最後把整條本來完全值得走下去的路封死。如果足夠多不協調的資訊(甚至不必是正確資訊)在社會里流轉,就可能催生出敵意極重的監管環境。

他希望 MIT 的新學院能成為全球的召集者,把四方拉到一起。這就是他願意在兩個領域同時下手的理由。

發明網際網路的人說,我可能犯了個錯

談到社交媒體和公共討論,施瓦茨曼的措辭很重。他說這個話題可能超出他的能力範圍,因為想控制社交媒體讓它按你的意願行事,幾乎沒有人做得到。

他提出一個說法:少數人的暴政(tyranny of the minorities)。這裡的"少數"指的是街角的兩三個人。他們長什麼樣、從哪來都不重要,把他們綁在一起的只有那一件事。他們的任務是把自己的觀點強加給世界。

政治圈子裡,人們直接製造真相,然後到處拋撒。有時候這些人還是被僱來幹這事的。你以為那是個人,其實那只是某種立場的前臺。這種局面正在嚴重擾亂社會,正在削弱自由民主制度運轉的能力,而他說自己也不知道該怎麼抓住它。

MIT 計算學院的釋出活動上出現了讓他意外的場面。臺上坐著很多著名科學家,其中一些正是網際網路的發明者。幾乎每一個人站起來都說,我覺得我犯了個錯誤。作為一個非科學家,他說他從沒想過會聽到有人這麼說。

他們的意思大致是:發明網際網路的時候,我們覺得這太酷了,能把全世界連起來,能讓知識瞬間流動,非常了不起。但沒有人想過,社交媒體會從裡面長出來,以及它對人真實生活造成的後果。他提到剛看到的一條全國新聞,有人因為被社交媒體嘲笑而自殺。

這是致命的。這是危險的。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

他說自己沒有解法,只知道往前走,同樣的錯誤用 AI 再犯一次,是不可原諒的。

十三億人裡的每一個人

從 2007 年起,他和中國的高層建立了關係,也一直對理解現代中國有興趣。

他的觀察從人口規模開始。中國很大,十三億人。中國人的性格在美國被理解得並不充分。他們極其有活力。如果你身處十三億人之中,你要想清楚的一件事就是,怎麼從另外十二億九千九百九十九個人裡擠出一條路來。

這個描述的另一面,是"競爭"這個詞。他們個體上高度有活力、高度專注,永遠在為自己找機會,因為不這樣就活不下去,身邊實在有太多人。

中國的複雜在於,它執行的邏輯和美國、西方不一樣。它沒有那種功能性的法律體系,整個國家靠人與人之間的關係網來運轉,你和別人的關係,別人和別人的關係,一層套一層。如果你上面三層的人倒了,而你正是被他保護著,你就成了一顆漂浮的分子,除了頭上那一兩層,沒有別的繩繫著,而那一兩層隨時可能被牽動。

所以讓中國人改變並不容易。沒有真正運轉的法律,只剩關係。當你決定做一個重大改變並簽了字,你生活裡的很多東西都會變,團隊裡未必還是原來那批人。這是高風險的事。

跟中國打交道,重要的是搞清楚每個人和別人的關係。你提出一個不同的做法,實際上是在重新排列這些力量。在西方,你通常只需要跟一個人談,他自己判斷什麼對自己好,簡單得多。從這個角度看,西方反而更容易推動改變,跟一般人的直覺正好相反。但中國的系統一旦適應了新東西,所有人就都在隊裡了,再想改他們很難;可一旦改過來,他們的專注程度是西方那種個人主義文化很難做到的。

他講的這些裡,有一條對技術聽眾尤其重要。幾周前他跟中國政府的一位高層聊天,對方說,中國每一個學齡兒童都要學電腦科學。

如果中國每一個孩子都要上這門課,這個人數大得難以形容。這不意味著每個人都能學好,但如果它像數學或英語一樣,人人都得學,那就不一樣了。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

他自己是那種數學學到三年級就停下來的學生,至今還在用識字卡。但整個社會每一個人都要接觸電腦科學,哪怕是入門級的程式設計,這件事本身就足夠驚人。

對比之下,美國的體系分散在三千多個學區裡。中國不需要考慮這個問題,最高層做一個決定,事情就會發生。美國教育系統的權力分散,恰恰是它的掣肘。他猜美國孩子裡接觸過電腦科學的比例不超過百分之五,而另一個主要經濟體是百分之百。電腦科學又是未來,這種差距意味著美國在系統層面主動或被動地削弱了自己,而且這套系統不允許快速調整。

美國需要一個登月級別的動員

談到聯邦政府在 AI 上的角色,他認為必須讓聯邦政府大規模入場。這次技術躍進無論有沒有美國都會發生,但它應該發生在有美國的情況下,這對美國來說是一次登月式的動員機會。

他認為意願是存在的。真正擋路的是當下那種有毒的政治氛圍。但如果繞過國會里那種幾乎已成為美國民主定義的不合作,直接去和單個議員聊,他們其實都懂,也願意做點事。

另一個現實問題是錢。美國正在執行上萬億美元級別的赤字。這個計劃要多少錢?從哪來?誰願意為它站出來?如果要動用別的領域的資源,美國的政治系統並不靈活。但換個角度想,已經有了萬億美元赤字,再多一點又有什麼區別?只是國會的運作機制讓這件事很難。

他唯一樂觀的地方是:這件事不是沒人知道的議題,它被看作非常重要的議題。坐下來把情況講清楚,國會里幾乎沒有人不說一句,我們得做點什麼。

給總統提建議不該是政治問題

主持人的問題很直接:施瓦茨曼沒有給特朗普背書,但在特朗普當選後給他提過建議。在主持人看來,無論誰當總統,用提建議的方式為國家做貢獻都是一件好事。但他因此受到了不少批評。那麼,怎麼讓政府和科技之間的對話不被政治化?

施瓦茨曼的回答從肯尼迪講起。他年輕時還沒有登月計劃,那時的總統是來自馬薩諸塞州的約翰·F·肯尼迪。在就職演說裡,肯尼迪說了那句話:不要問你的國家能為你做什麼,而要問你能為你的國家做什麼。他這一代人是在這句信條下長大的。

他說,有時候不需要創新,回到基本原則就夠了。美國人均 GDP 大約六萬美元,分配並不平均,但這個數字很大。他認為人有義務幫助自己的國家,他就在做這件事。也因此,他從一些人那裡承受了不少攻擊,那些人把一些他根本不認同的東西投射到他身上。

他的立場其實很簡單:他幫過前總統奧巴馬,那是個好人,屬於另一個黨;他也幫過布什總統,也是另一個黨。他並不太在意黨派。雖然他是共和黨的大額捐贈者,但驅動他的是,我們面對的問題是什麼,我能不能幫大家走到一個經得起檢驗的結果。

他還對比了兩個時代。上世紀六十年代他在耶魯唸書,那四年裡發生的事密度極高:越南戰爭、黑人權力運動的興起、避孕藥帶來的性革命,還有毒品革命。沒有哪一代人在四年裡經歷過這麼多。但那時候,人和人之間沒有這種即刻爆發的敵意。想法不同的人住在一起,也彼此尊重。

他認為這種變化必須扭轉,而且必須從主要機構的領導層開始。領導者不能被那些反對經典版言論自由、反對開放表達和探究的人嚇住。大學存在的意義之一就是蘇格拉底式的追問。

如果人們不接受這些核心原則,不接受人是平等的、言論可以被聽見、不接受那種或明或暗的壓倒性噓聲,那他們就不屬於這些機構。他們違背了核心原則。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼)

而改變的方式,是有人有勇氣把這些原則講清楚,不只為自己的機構,也為整個社會。他相信這會發生,但這需要高層人物的承諾。

他最後引用了自己書裡的一段話作為結尾。這段話也是整場對話的底色:

開始並經營一家小企業,和開始並經營一家大企業一樣難。你為了讓公司活下來,付出的財務代價和心理代價是一樣的。籌錢難,找對人也難。所以如果你打算把一生投入一家企業(只有這樣才能做成),你就應該選一個有可能變得巨大的。(斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼,《What It Takes》)

可以帶走的具體做法

  • 訓練自己盯住那根不和諧的線頭。在一堆自洽的事實裡,找出那個"本不該在這兒"的細節,找到第二根的時候,認真對待它。
  • 見人之前,先把自己當成對方。花十分鐘想清楚他現在最大的未解難題是什麼,準備兩三個別人沒提過的解法。
  • 把一次對話聽完整。看錶情,看眼睛,聽語速和音量有沒有變,對方忙著組織下一句話的時候,真實想法會自己漏出來。
  • 看到訊號之後要動手。絕大多數人聽完只會說一句"這很有意思",然後回去做原來的事,這才是你真正的機會所在。
  • 創業不要做孤狼。找兩三個能交換經驗、能一起扛事的人,尤其是能聊心理壓力的那種。
  • 把"我不覺得自己有多聰明"當成競爭優勢。聰明人很難從自己的問題裡走出來,去真正在意別人的問題。
  • 每兩個月和伴侶單獨出去一次,不帶孩子,不談問題。待在家裡只會遇到更多問題,關係需要離開日常才能加固。
  • 想做慈善,先從看見問題開始,而不是從寫支票開始。把精力放在啟動一件別人還沒在做的事上。
  • 如果你在做技術,把 AI 倫理當成和模型能力同等重要的議題。技術本身跑得快,但監管環境和社會反彈會把整條路封死。
  • 關注教育系統的結構性差距。三千個學區對上一個統一決策,差距不在單個學生的天賦上,而在系統能不能快速調整。
文稿來自公開 Kaggle 資料集(rajneesh231/lex-fridman-podcast-transcript),為早期自動轉錄存檔,可能存在識別錯誤。
The following is a conversation with Stephen Schwarzman, CEO and cofounder of Blackstone, one of the world's leading investment firms with over $530 billion of assets under management. He's one of the most successful business leaders in history. I recommend his recent book called What It Takes that tells stories and lessons from his personal journey. Stephen is a philanthropist and one of the wealthiest people in the world, recently signing the Giving Pledge, thereby committing to give the majority of his wealth to philanthropic causes. As an example, in 2018, he donated $350 million to MIT to help establish his new College of Computing, the mission of which promotes interdisciplinary, big, bold research in artificial intelligence. For those of you who know me, know that MIT is near and dear to my heart and always will be. It was and is a place where I believe big, bold, revolutionary ideas have a home, and that is what is needed in artificial intelligence research in the coming decades. Yes, there's institutional challenges, but also there's power in the passion of individual researchers, from undergrad to PhD, from young scientists to senior faculty. I believe the dream to build intelligence systems burns brighter than ever in the halls of MIT. This conversation was recorded recently, but before the outbreak of the pandemic. For everyone feeling the burden of this crisis, I'm sending love your way. Stay strong, we're in this together. This is the Artificial Intelligence Podcast. If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, review it with five stars on Apple Podcast, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman, spelled F R I D M A N. As usual, I'll do a few minutes of ads now, and never any ads in the middle that can break the flow of the conversation. I hope that works for you, and doesn't hurt the listening experience. Quick summary of the ads. Two sponsors, Masterclass and ExpressVPN. Please consider supporting the podcast by signing up to Masterclass at masterclass.com slash lex, and getting ExpressVPN at expressvpn.com slash lexpod. This show is sponsored by Masterclass. Sign up at masterclass.com slash lex to get a discount and support this podcast. When I first heard about Masterclass, I thought it was too good to be true. For $180 a year, you get an all access pass to watch courses from, to list some of my favorites, Chris Hadfield on Space Exploration, Neil deGrasse Tyson on Scientific Thinking and Communication, Will Wright, creator of SimCity and Sims on game design, Carlos Santana on guitar, Gary Kasparov on chess, Daniel Negrano on poker, and many, many more. Chris Hadfield explaining how rockets work, and the experience of being launched into space alone is worth the money. By the way, you can watch it on basically any device. Once again, sign up at masterclass.com slash lex to get a discount and to support this podcast. This show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Get it at expressvpn.com slash lex pod to get a discount and to support this podcast. I've been using ExpressVPN for many years. I love it. It's easy to use, press the big power on button, and your privacy is protected. And, if you like, you can make it look like your location is anywhere else in the world. I might be in Boston now, but it can make you look like I'm in New York, London, Paris, or anywhere else in the world. This has a large number of obvious benefits. Certainly, it allows you to access international versions of streaming websites like the Japanese Netflix or the UK Hulu. ExpressVPN works on any device you can imagine. I use it on Linux, shout out to Ubuntu 2004, Windows, Android, but it's available everywhere else too. Once again, get it at expressvpn.com slash lex pod to get a discount and to support this podcast. And now, here's my conversation with Stephen Schwarzman. Let's start with a tough question. What idea do you believe, whether grounded in data or in intuition, that many people you respect disagree with you on? Well, there isn't all that much anymore since the world's so transparent. But one of the things I believe in and put it in the book, the book, what it takes is if you're gonna do something, do something very consequential. Do something that's quite large, if you can, that's unique. Because if you operate in that kind of space, when you're successful, it's a huge impact. The prospect of success enables you to recruit people who wanna be part of that. And those type of large opportunities are pretty easily described. And so, not everybody likes to operate at scale. Some people like to do small things because it is meaningful for them emotionally. And so, occasionally, you get a disagreement on that. But those are life choices rather than commercial choices. That's interesting. What good and bad comes with going big? We often, in America, think big is good. What's the benefit, what's the cost in terms of just bigger than business, but life, happiness, the pursuit of happiness? Well, you do things that make you happy. It's not mandated. And everybody's different. And some people, if they have talent, like playing pro football, other people just like throwing the ball around, not even being on a team. What's better? Depends what your objectives are. Depends what your talent is. Depends what gives you joy. So, in terms of going big, is it both for impact on the world and because you personally gives you joy? Well, it makes it easier to succeed, actually. Because if you catch something, for example, that's cyclical, that's a huge opportunity, then you usually can find some place within that huge opportunity where you can make it work. If you're prosecuting a really small thing and you're wrong, you don't have many places to go. So, I've always found that the easy place to be and the ability where you can concentrate human resources, get people excited about doing really impactful big things, and you can afford to pay them, actually. Because the bigger thing can generate much more in the way of financial resources. So, that brings people out of talent to help you. And so, all together, it's a virtuous circle, I think. How do you know an opportunity when you see one in terms of the one you wanna go big on? Is it intuition, is it facts? Is it back and forth deliberation with people you trust? What's the process? Is it art, is it science? Well, it's pattern recognition. And how do you get to pattern recognition? First, you need to understand the patterns and the changes that are happening. And that's either, it's observational on some level. You can call it data or you can just call it listening to unusual things that people are saying that they haven't said before. And I've always tried to describe this. It's like seeing a piece of white lint on a black dress. But most people disregard that piece of lint. They just see the dress. I always see the lint. And I'm fascinated by how did something get someplace it's not supposed to be? So, it doesn't even need to be a big discrepancy. But if something shouldn't be someplace in a constellation of facts that sort of made sense in a traditional way, I've learned that if you focus on why one discordant note is there, that's usually a key to something important. And if you can find two of those discordant notes, that's usually a straight line to someplace. And that someplace is not where you've been. And usually when you figure out that things are changing or have changed and you describe them, which you have to be able to do because it's not some odd intuition. It's just focusing on facts. It's almost like a scientific discovery, if you will. When you describe it to other people in the real world, they tend to do absolutely nothing about it. And that's because humans are comfortable in their own reality. And if there's no particular reason at that moment to shake them out of their reality, they'll stay in it even if they're ultimately completely wrong. And I've always been stunned that when I explain where we're going, what we're doing and why, almost everyone just says, that's interesting. And they continue doing what they're doing. And so I think it's pretty easy to do that. But what you need is a huge data set. So before AI and people's focus on data, I've sort of been doing this mostly my whole life. I'm not a scientist, I'm not let alone a computer scientist. And you can just hear what people are saying when somebody says something or you observe something that simply doesn't make sense. That's when you really go to work. The rest of it's just processing. You know, on a quick tangent, pattern recognition is a term often used throughout the history of AI. That's the goal of artificial intelligence is pattern recognition, right? But there's, I would say, various flavors of that. So usually pattern recognition refers to the process of the, we said dress and the lint on the dress. Pattern recognition is very good at identifying the dress as looking at the pattern that's always there, that's very common and so on. You almost refer to a pattern that's like in what's called outlier detection in computer science, right, the rare thing, the small thing. Now, AI is not often good at that. Do you, just almost philosophically, the kind of decisions you made in your life based scientifically almost on data, do you think AI in the future will be able to do? Is it something that could be put down into code or is it still deeply human? It's tough for me to say since I don't have domain knowledge in AI to know everything that could or might occur. I know, sort of in my own case, that most people don't see any of that. I just assumed it was motivational, you know, but it's also sort of, it's hardwiring. What are you wired or programmed to be finding or looking for? It's not what happens every day. That's not interesting, frankly. I mean, that's what people mostly do. I do a bunch of that too because, you know, that's what you do in normal life. But I've always been completely fascinated by the stuff that doesn't fit. Or the other way of thinking about it, it's determining what people want without them saying it. That's a different kind of pattern. You can see everything they're doing. There's a missing piece. They don't know it's missing. You think it's missing given the other facts. You know about them and you deliver that and then that becomes, you know, sort of very easy to sell to them. To linger on this point a little bit, you've mentioned that in your family, when you were growing up, nobody raised their voice in anger or otherwise. And you said that this allows you to learn to listen and hear some interesting things. Can you elaborate as you have been on that idea, what do you hear about the world if you listen? Well, you have to listen really intensely to understand what people are saying as well as what people are intending because it's not necessarily the same thing. And people mostly give themselves away no matter how clever they think they are. Particularly if you have the full array of inputs. In other words, if you look at their face, you look at their eyes, which are the window on the soul, it's very difficult to conceal what you're thinking. You look at facial expressions and posture. You listen to their voice, which changes. You know, when you're talking about something you're comfortable with or not, are you speaking faster? Is the amplitude of what you're saying higher? Most people just give away what's really on their mind. You know, they're not that clever. They're busy spending their time thinking about what they're in the process of saying. And so if you just observe that, not in a hostile way, but just in an evocative way and just let them talk for a while, they'll more or less tell you almost completely what they're thinking, even the stuff they don't want you to know. And once you know that, of course, it's sort of easy to play that kind of game because they've already told you everything you need to know. And so it's easy to get to a conclusion if there's meant to be one, an area of common interest, since you know almost exactly what's on their mind. And so that's an enormous advantage as opposed to just walking in someplace and somebody telling you something and you believing what they're saying. There are so many different levels of communication. So a powerful approach to life you discuss in the book on the topic of listening and really hearing people is figuring out what the biggest problem, bothering a particular individual or group is and coming up with a solution to that problem and presenting them with a solution, right? In fact, you brilliantly describe a lot of simple things that most people just don't do. It's kind of obvious, find the problem that's bothering somebody deeply. And as you said, I think you've implied that they will usually tell you what the problem is, but can you talk about this process of seeing what the biggest problem for a person is, trying to solve it, and maybe a particularly memorable example? Sure, if you know you're gonna meet somebody, there are two types of situations, chance meetings, and the second is you know you're gonna meet somebody. So let's take the easiest one, which is you know you're gonna meet somebody. And you start trying to make pretend you're them. It's really easy. What's on their mind? What are they thinking about in their daily life? What are the big problems they're facing? So if they're, you know, to make it a really easy example, you know, make pretend, you know, they're like president of the United States. Doesn't have to be this president, could be any president. So you sort of know what's more or less on their mind because the press keeps reporting it. And you see it on television, you hear it. People discuss it. So you know if you're gonna be running into somebody in that kind of position. You sort of know what they look like already. You know what they sound like. You know what their voice is like. And you know what they're focused on. And so if you're gonna meet somebody like that, what you should do is take the biggest unresolved issue that they're facing and come up with a few interesting solutions that basically haven't been out there. Or that you haven't heard anybody else always thinking about. So just to give you an example, I was sort of in the early 1990s and I was invited to something at the White House which was a big deal for me because I was like, you know, a person from no place. And you know, I had met the president once before because it was President Bush because his son was in my dormitory. So I had met him at Parents Day. I mean it's just like the oddity of things. So I knew I was gonna see him because that's where the invitation came from. And so there was something going on and I just thought about two or three ways to approach that issue. And you know, at that point I was separated and so I had brought a date to the White House and so I saw the president and we sort of went over in a corner for about 10 minutes and discussed whatever this issue was. And I later went back to my date. It was a little rude but it was meant to be confidential conversation and I barely knew her. And you know, she said, what were you talking about all that time? I said, well, you know, there's something going on in the world and I've thought about different ways of perhaps approaching that and he was interested. And the answer is of course he was interested. Why wouldn't he be interested? There didn't seem to be an easy outcome. And so, you know, conversations of that type, once somebody knows you're really thinking about what's good for them and good for the situation, it has nothing to do with me. There are thousands, maybe more, maybe millions of other first time entrepreneurs like me. What advice? You've gone through this process. You've talked about the suffering, the emotional turmoil it all might entail. What advice do you have for those people taking that step? I'd say it's a rough ride. And you have to be psychologically prepared for things going wrong with frequency. You have to be prepared to be put in situations where you're being asked to solve problems you didn't even know those problems existed. For example, renting space, it's not really a problem unless you've never done it. You have no idea what a lease looks like. You don't even know the relevant rent in a market. So everything is new. Everything has to be learned. What you realize is that it's good to have other people with you who've had some experience in areas where you don't know what you're doing. Unfortunately, an entrepreneur starting doesn't know much of anything. So everything is something new. And I think it's important not to be alone, because it's sort of overwhelming. And you need somebody to talk to other than a spouse or a loved one, because even they get bored with your problems. And so getting a group, if you look at Alibaba, Jack Ma was telling me they basically were like at financial death's door at least twice. And the fact that it wasn't just Jack. I mean, people think it is, because he became the sort of public face and the driver. But a group of people who can give advice, share situations to talk about, that's really important. And that's not just referring to the small details like renting space. No. It's also the psychological burden. Yeah, and because most entrepreneurs at some point question what they're doing, because it's not going so well. Or they're screwing it up, and they don't know how to unscrew it up, because we're all learning. And it's hard to be learning when there are like 25 variables going on. If you're missing four big ones, you can really make a mess. And so the ability to, in effect, have either an outsider who's really smart that you can rely on for certain type of things, or other people who are working with you on a daily basis, most people who haven't had experience believe in the myth of the one person, one great person, makes outcomes, creates outcomes that are positive. Most of us, it's not like that. If you look back over a lot of the big successful tech companies, it's not typically one person. And you will know these stories better than I do, because it's your world, not mine. But even I know that almost every one of them had two people. If you look at Google, that's what they had. And that was the same at Microsoft at the beginning. And it was the same at Apple. People have different skills. And they need to play off of other people. So the advice that I would give you is make sure you understand that so you don't head off in some direction as a lone wolf and find that either you can't invent all the solutions or you make bad decisions on certain types of things. This is a team sport. Entrepreneur means you're alone, in effect. And that's the myth. But it's mostly a myth. Yeah, I think, and you talk about this in your book, and I could talk to you about it forever, the harshly self critical aspect to your personality and to mine as well in the face of failure. It's a powerful tool, but it's also a burden that's very interesting to walk that line. But let me ask in terms of people around you, in terms of friends, in the bigger picture of your own life, where do you put the value of love, family, friendship in the big picture journey of your life? Well, ultimately, all journeys are alone. It's great to have support. And when you go forward and say your job is to make something work, and that's your number one priority, and you're going to work at it to make it work, it's like superhuman effort. People don't become successful as part time workers. It doesn't work that way. And if you're prepared to make that 100% to 120% effort, you're going to need support, and you're going to have to have people involved with your life who understand that that's really part of your life. Sometimes you're involved with somebody, and they don't really understand that. And that's a source of conflict and difficulty. But if you're involved with the right people, whether it's a dating relationship or a spousal relationship, you have to involve them in your life, but not burden them with every minor triumph or mistake. They actually get bored with it after a while. And so you have to set up different types of ecosystems. You have your home life. You have your love life. You have children. And that's the enduring part of what you do. And then on the other side, you've got the unpredictable nature of this type of work. What I say to people at my firm who are younger, usually, well, everybody's younger, but people who are of an age where they're just having their first child, or maybe they have two children, that it's important to make sure they go away with their spouse at least once every two months to just some lovely place where there are no children, no issues, sometimes once a month if they're sort of energetic and clever. And that Escape the craziness of it all. Yeah, and reaffirm your values as a couple. And you have to have fun. If you don't have fun with the person you're with, and all you're doing is dealing with issues, then that gets pretty old. And so you have to protect the fun element of your life together. And the way to do that isn't by hanging around the house and dealing with sort of more problems. You have to get away and reinforce and reinvigorate your relationship. And whenever I tell one of our younger people about that, they sort of look at me, and it's like the scales are falling off of their eyes. And they're saying, jeez, I hadn't thought about that. I'm so enmeshed in all these things. But that's a great idea. And that's something, as an entrepreneur, you also have to do. You just can't let relationships slip because you're half overwhelmed. Beautifully put. And I think there's no better place to end it. Steve, thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It was an honor to talk to you. My pleasure. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Stephen Schwarzman. And thank you to our sponsors, ExpressVPN and MasterClass. Please consider supporting the podcast by signing up to MasterClass at masterclass.com slash lex and getting ExpressVPN at expressvpn.com slash lexpod. If you enjoy this podcast, subscribe on YouTube, review it with five stars on Apple Podcast, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at lexfriedman. And now, let me leave you with some words from Stephen Schwarzman's book, What It Takes. It's as hard to start and run a small business as it is to start a big one. You will suffer the same toll financially and psychologically as you bludgeon it into existence. It's hard to raise the money and to find the right people. So if you're going to dedicate your life to a business, which is the only way it will ever work, you should choose one with the potential to be huge. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time. I mean, it's really about being in service, you know, to the situation. Then people trust you and they'll tell you other things because they know your motives are basically very pure. You're just trying to resolve a difficult situation or help somebody do it. So these types of things, you know, that's a planned situation, that's easy. Sometimes you just come upon somebody and they start talking and you know, that requires, you know, like different skills. You know, you can ask them, what have you been working on lately? What are you thinking about? You can ask them, you know, has anything been particularly difficult? And you know, you can ask most people if they trust you for some reason, they'll tell you. And then you have to instantly go to work on it. And you know, that's not as good as having some advanced planning, but you know, almost everything going on is like out there. And people who are involved with interesting situations, they're playing in the same ecosystem. They just have different roles in the ecosystem. And you know, you could do that with somebody who owns a pro football team that loses all the time. We specialize in those in New York. And you know, you already have analyzed why they're losing, right? Inevitably, it's because they don't have a great quarterback, they don't have a great coach, and they don't have a great general manager who knows how to hire the best talent. Those are the three reasons why a team fails, right? Because there are salary caps, so every team pays a certain amount of money for all their players. So it's gotta be those three positions. So if you're talking with somebody like that, inevitably, even though it's not structured, you'll know how their team's doing and you'll know pretty much why. And if you start asking questions about that, they're typically very happy to talk about it because they haven't solved that problem. In some cases, they don't even know that's the problem. It's pretty easy to see it. So, you know, I do stuff like that, which I find is intuitive as a process, but, you know, leads to really good results. Well, the funny thing is when you're smart, for smart people, it's hard to escape their own ego and the space of their own problems, which is what's required to think about other people's problems. It requires for you to let go of the fact that your own problems are all important and then to talk about your, I think while it seems obvious and I think quite brilliant, it's just a difficult leap for many people, especially smart people, to empathize with, truly empathize with the problems of others. Well, I have a competitive advantage, which is, I don't think I'm so smart. So, you know, it's not a problem for me. Well, the truly smartest people I know say that exact same thing. Yeah, being humble is really useful, competitive advantage, as you said. How do you stay humble? Well, I haven't changed much. Since? Since I was in my mid teens. You know, I was raised partly in the city and partly in the suburbs. And, you know, whatever the values I had at that time, those are still my values. I call them like middle class values, that's how I was raised. And I've never changed, why would I? That's who I am. And so the accoutrement of, you know, the rest of your life has gotta be put on the same, you know, like solid foundation of who you are. Because if you start losing who you really are, who are you? So I've never had the desire to be somebody else. I just do other things now that I wouldn't do as a, you know, sort of as a middle class kid from Philadelphia. I mean, my life has morphed on a certain level. But part of the strength of having integrity of personality is that you can remain in touch with everybody who comes from that kind of background. And, you know, even though I do some things that aren't like that, you know, in terms of people I meet or situations I'm in, I always look at it through the same lens. And that's very psychologically comfortable and doesn't require me to make any real adjustments in my life and I just keep plowing ahead. There's a lot of activity in progress in recent years around effective altruism. I wanted to bring this topic with you because it's an interesting one from your perspective. You can put it in any kind of terms, but it's philanthropy that focuses on maximizing impact. How do you see the goal of philanthropy, both from a personal motivation perspective and the societal big picture impact perspective? Yeah, I don't think about philanthropy the way you would expect me to, okay? I look at, you know, sort of solving big issues, addressing big issues, starting new organizations to do it, much like we do in our business. You know, we keep growing our business not by taking the original thing and making it larger, but continually seeing new things and building those. And, you know, sort of marshaling financial resources, human resources, and in our case, because we're in the investment business, we find something new that looks like it's gonna be terrific and we do that and it works out really well. All I do in what you would call philanthropy is look at other opportunities to help society. And I end up starting something new, marshaling people, marshaling a lot of money, and then at the end of that kind of creative process, somebody typically asks me to write a check. I don't wake up and say, how can I give large amounts of money away? I look at issues that are important for people. In some cases, I do smaller things. Because it's important to a person, and, you know, I can relate to that person. There's some unfairness that's happened to them. And so in situations like that, I'd give money anonymously and help them out. And, you know, it's like a miniature version of addressing something really big. So, you know, at MIT, I'm a little bit you know, at MIT, I've done a big thing, you know, helping to start this new school of computing. And I did that because, you know, I saw that, you know, there's sort of like a global race on in AI, quantum, and other major technologies. And I thought that the US could use more enhancement from a competitive perspective. And I also, because I get to China a lot and I travel around a lot compared to a regular person, you know, I can see the need to have control of these types of technologies. So when they're introduced, we don't create a mess like we did with the internet and with social media. Unintended consequence, you know, that's creating all kinds of issues and freedom of speech and the functioning of liberal democracies. So with AI, it was pretty clear that there was enormous difference of views around the world by the relatively few practitioners in the world who really knew what was going on. And by accident, I knew a bunch of these people, you know, who were like big famous people. And I could talk to them and say, why do you think this is a force for bad? And someone else, why do you feel this is a force for good? And how do we move forward with the technology by the same time, make sure that whatever is potentially, you know, sort of on the bad side of this technology with, you know, for example, disruption of workforces and things like that, that could happen much faster than the industrial revolution. What do we do about that? And how do we keep that under control so that the really good things about these technologies, which will be great things, not good things are allowed to happen? So to me, you know, this was one of the great issues facing society. The number of people who were aware of it were very small. I just accidentally got sucked into it. And as soon as I saw it, I went, oh my God, this is mega, both on a competitive basis globally, but also in terms of protecting society and benefiting society. So that's how I got involved. And at the end, you know, sort of the right thing that we figured out was, you know, sort of double MIT's computer science faculty and basically create the first AI enabled university in the world. And, you know, in effect, be an example, a beacon to the rest of the research community around the world academically, and create, you know, a much more robust U.S. situation, competitive situation among the universities. Because if MIT was going to raise a lot of money and double its faculty, well, you could bet that, you know, a number of other universities were going to do the same thing. At the end of it, it would be great for knowledge creation, you know, great for the United States, great for the world. And so I like to do things that I think are really positive, things that other people aren't acting on, that I see for whatever the reason. First, it's just people I meet and what they say, and I can recognize when something really profound is about to happen or needs to. And I do it, and at the end of the situation, somebody says, can you write a check to help us? And then the answer is sure. I mean, because if I don't, the vision won't happen. But it's the vision of whatever I do that is compelling. And essentially, I love that idea of whether it's small at the individual level or really big, like the gift to MIT to launch the College of Computing. It starts with a vision, and you see philanthropy as, the biggest impact you can have is by launching something new, especially on an issue that others aren't really addressing. And I also love the notion, and you're absolutely right, that there's other universities, Stanford, CMU, I'm looking at you, that would essentially, the seed will create other, it'll have a ripple effect that potentially might help US be a leader or continue to be a leader in AI. It's potentially a very transformative research direction. Just to linger on that point a little bit, what is your hope long term for the impact the college here at MIT might have in the next five, 10, even 20, or let's get crazy, 30, 50 years? Well, it's very difficult to predict the future when you're dealing with knowledge production and creativity. MIT has, obviously, some unique aspects. Globally, there's four big academic surveys. I forget whether it was QS, there's the Times in London, the US News, and whatever. And one of these recently, MIT, was ranked number one in the world. So leave aside whether you're number three somewhere else, in the great sweep of humanity, this is pretty amazing. So you have a really remarkable aggregation of human talent here. And where it goes, it's hard to tell. You have to be a scientist to have the right feel. But what's important is you have a critical mass of people. And I think it breaks into two buckets. One is scientific advancement. And if the new college can help either serve as a convening force within the university or help coordination and communication among people, that's a good thing, absolute good thing. The second thing is in the AI ethics area, which is, in a way, equally important. Because if the science side creates blowback so that science is a bit crippled in terms of going forward because society's reaction to knowledge advancement in this field becomes really hostile, then you've sort of lost the game in terms of scientific progress and innovation. And so the AI ethics piece is super important because in a perfect world, MIT would serve as a global convener. Because what you need is you need the research universities. You need the companies that are driving AI and quantum work. You need governments who will ultimately be regulating certain elements of this. And you also need the media to be knowledgeable and trained so we don't get overreactions to one situation, which then goes viral and it ends up shutting down avenues that are perfectly fine to be walking down or running down that avenue. But if enough discordant information, not even correct necessarily, sort of gets pushed around society, then you can end up with a really hostile regulatory environment and other things. So you have four drivers that have to be sort of integrated. And so if the new school of computing can be really helpful in that regard, then that's a real service to science. And it's a service to MIT. So that's why I wanted to get involved for both areas. And the hope is for me, for others, for everyone, for the world, is for this particular college of computing to be a beacon and a connector for these ideas. Yeah, that's right. I mean, I think MIT is perfectly positioned to do that. So you've mentioned the media, social media, the internet as this complex network of communication with flaws, perhaps, perhaps you can speak to them. But I personally think that science and technology has its flaws, but ultimately is, one, sexy, exciting. It's the way for us to explore and understand the mysteries of our world. And two, perhaps more importantly for some people, it's a huge way to, a really powerful way to grow the economy, to improve the quality of life for everyone. So how do we get, how do you see the media, social media, the internet as a society having a healthy discourse about science, first of all, one that's factual and two, one that finds science exciting, that invests in science, that pushes it forward, especially in this science fiction, fear filled field of artificial intelligence? Well, I think that's a little above my pay grade because trying to control social media to make it do what you want to do appears to be beyond almost anybody's control. And the technology is being used to create what I call the tyranny of the minorities. A minority is defined as two or three people on a street corner. Doesn't matter what they look like. Doesn't matter where they came from. They're united by that one issue that they care about. And their job is to enforce their views on the world. And in the political world, people just are manufacturing truth. And they throw it all over. And it affects all of us. And sometimes people are just hired to do that. It's amazing. And you think it's one person. It's really just sort of a front for a particular point of view. And this has become exceptionally disruptive for society. And it's dangerous. And it's undercutting the ability of liberal democracies to function. And I don't know how to get a grip on this. And I was really surprised when we was up here for the announcement last spring of the College of Computing. And they had all these famous scientists, some of whom were involved with the invention of the internet. And almost every one of them got up and said, I think I made a mistake. And as a non scientist, I never thought I'd hear anyone say that. And what they said is, more or less, to make it simple, we thought this would be really cool inventing the internet. We could connect everyone in the world. We can move knowledge around. It was instantaneous. It's a really amazing thing. He said, I don't know that there was anyone who ever thought about social media coming out of that and the actual consequences for people's lives. There's always some younger person. I just saw one of these yesterday. It's reported on the national news who killed himself when people use social media to basically sort of ridicule him or something of that type. This is dead. This is dangerous. And so I don't have a solution for that other than going forward, you can end up with this type of outcome using AI. To make this kind of mistake twice is unforgivable. So interestingly, at least in the West and parts of China, people are quite sympathetic to the whole concept of AI ethics and what gets introduced when and cooperation within your own country, within your own industry, as well as globally to make sure that the technology is a force for good. And that really interesting topic. Since 2007, you've had a relationship with senior leadership with a lot of people in China and an interest in understanding modern China, their culture, their world, much like with Russia. I'm from Russia originally. Americans are told a very narrow, one sided story about China that I'm sure misses a lot of fascinating complexity, both positive and negative. What lessons about Chinese culture, its ideas as a nation, its future do you think Americans should know about, deliberate on, think about? Well, it's sort of a wide question that you're asking about. China is a pretty unusual place. First, it's huge. It's physically huge. It's got a billion three people. And the character of the people isn't as well understood in the United States. Chinese people are amazingly energetic. If you're one of a billion three people, one of the things you've got to be focused on is how do you make your way through a crowd of a billion 2.99999 other people. No, the word for that is competitive. Yes, they are individually highly energetic, highly focused, always looking for some opportunity for themselves because they need to, because there's an enormous amount of just literally people around. And so what I've found is they'll try and find a way to win for themselves. And their country is complicated because it basically doesn't have the same kind of functional laws that we do in the United States and the West. And the country is controlled really through a web of relationships you have with other people and the relationships that those other people have with other people. So it's an incredibly dynamic culture where if somebody knocks somebody up on the top who's three levels above you and is, in effect, protecting you, then you're like a floating molecule there without tethering except the one or two layers above you. But that's going to get affected. So it's a very dynamic system. And getting people to change is not that easy because if there aren't really functioning laws, it's only the relationships that everybody has. And so when you decide to make a major change and you sign up for it, something is changing in your life. There won't necessarily be all the same people on your team. And that's a very high risk enterprise. So when you're dealing with China, it's important to know almost what everybody's relationship is with somebody. So when you suggest doing something differently, you line up these forces. In the West, it's usually you talk to a person and they figure out what's good for them. It's a lot easier. And in that sense, in a funny way, it's easier to make change in the West, just the opposite of what people think. But once the Chinese system adjusts to something that's new, everybody's on the team. It's hard to change them. But once they're changed, they are incredibly focused in a way that it's hard for the West to do in a more individualistic culture. So there are all kinds of fascinating things. One thing that might interest the people who are listening who are more technologically based than some other group. I was with one of the top people in the government a few weeks ago, and he was telling me that every school child in China is going to be taught computer science. Now, imagine 100% of these children. This is such a large number of human beings. Now, that doesn't mean that every one of them will be good at computer science. But if it's sort of like in the West, if it's like math or English, everybody's going to take it. Not everybody's great at English. They don't write books. They don't write poetry. And not everybody's good at math. Somebody like myself, I sort of evolved to the third grade, and I'm still doing flashcards. I didn't make it further in math. But imagine everybody in their society is going to be involved with computer science. I'd just even pause on that. I think computer science involves, at the basic beginner level, programming. And the idea that everybody in the society would have some ability to program a computer is incredible. For me, it's incredibly exciting, and I think that should give the United States pause and consider what... Talking about sort of philanthropy and launching things, there's nothing like launching, sort of investing in young youth, the education system, because that's where everything launches. Yes. Well, we've got a complicated system because we have over 3,000 school districts around the country. China doesn't worry about that as a concept. They make a decision at the very top of the government that that's what they want to have happen, and that is what will happen. And we're really handicapped by this distributed power in the education area, although some people involved with that area will think it's great. But you would know better than I do what percent of American children have computer science exposure. My guess, no knowledge, would be 5% or less. And if we're going to be going into a world where the other major economic power, sort of like ourselves, has got like 100% and we got 5%, and the whole computer science area is the future, then we're purposely or accidentally actually handicapping ourselves, and our system doesn't allow us to adjust quickly to that. So, you know, issues like this I find fascinating. And, you know, if you're lucky enough to go to other countries, which I do, and you learn what they're thinking, then it informs what we ought to be doing in the United States. So the current administration, Donald Trump, has released an executive order on artificial intelligence. Not sure if you're familiar with it. In 2019, looking several years ahead, how does America sort of, we've mentioned in terms of the big impact, we hope your investment in MIT will have a ripple effect, but from a federal perspective, from a government perspective, how does America establish, with respect to China, leadership in the world at the top for research and development in AI? I think that you have to get the federal government in the game in a big way, and that this leap forward technologically, which is going to happen with or without us, you know, really should be with us, and it's an opportunity, in effect, for another moonshot kind of mobilization by the United States. I think the appetite actually is there to do that. At the moment, what's getting in the way is the kind of poisonous politics we have, but if you go below the lack of cooperation, which is almost the defining element of American democracy right now in the Congress, if you talk to individual members, they get it, and they would like to do something. Another part of the issue is we're running huge deficits. We're running trillion dollar plus deficits. So how much money do you need for this initiative? Where does it come from? Who's prepared to stand up for it? Because if it involves taking away resources from another area, our political system is not real flexible. To do that, if you're creating this kind of initiative, which we need, where does the money come from? And trying to get money when you've got trillion dollar deficits, in a way, could be easy. What's the difference of a trillion and a trillion and a little more? But, you know, it's hard with the mechanisms of Congress. But what's really important is this is not an issue that is unknown, and it's viewed as a very important issue. And there's almost no one in the Congress when you sit down and explain what's going on who doesn't say, we've got to do something. Let me ask the impossible question. You didn't endorse Donald Trump, but after he was elected, you have given him advice, which seems to me a great thing to do, no matter who the president is, to positively contribute to this nation by giving advice. And yet, you've received a lot of criticism for this. So on the previous topic of science and technology and government, how do we have a healthy discourse, give advice, get excited conversation with the government about science and technology without it becoming politicized? Well, it's very interesting. So when I was young, before there was a moonshot, we had a president named John F. Kennedy from Massachusetts here. And in his inaugural address as president, he asked not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country. We had a generation of people my age, basically people, who grew up with that credo. And sometimes you don't need to innovate. You can go back to basic principles. And that's good basic principle. What can we do? Americans have GDP per capita of around $60,000. It's not equally distributed, but it's big. And people have, I think, an obligation to help their country. And I do that. And apparently, I take some grief from some people who project on me things I don't even vaguely believe. But I'm quite simple. I tried to help the previous president, President Obama. He was a good guy. And he was a different party. And I tried to help President Bush. And he's a different party. And I sort of don't care that much about what the parties are. I care about, even though I'm a big donor for the Republicans, but what motivates me is, what are the problems we're facing? Can I help people get to a good outcome that will stand any test? But we live in a world now where the filters and the hostility is so unbelievable. In the 1960s, when I went to school and university, I went to Yale, we had so much stuff going on. We had a war called the Vietnam War. We had sort of black power starting. And we had a sexual revolution with the birth control pill. And there was one other major thing going on, the drug revolution. There hasn't been a generation that had more stuff going on in a four year period than my era. Yet, there wasn't this kind of instant hostility if you believed something different. Everybody lived together and respected the other person. And I think that this type of change needs to happen. And it's got to happen from the leadership of our major institutions. And I don't think that leaders can be bullied by people who are against sort of the classical version of free speech and letting open expression and inquiry. That's what universities are for, among other things, Socratic methods. And so I have, in the midst of this onslaught of oddness, I believe in still the basic principles. And we're going to have to find a way to get back to that. And that doesn't start with the people sort of in the middle to the bottom who are using these kinds of screens to shout people down and create an uncooperative environment. It's got to be done at the top with core principles that are articulated. And ironically, if people don't sign on to these kind of core principles where people are equal and speech can be heard and you don't have these enormous shout down biases subtly or out loud, then they don't belong at those institutions. They're violating the core principles. And that's how you end up making change. But you have to have courageous people who are willing to lay that out for the benefit of not just their institutions, but for society as a whole. So I believe that will happen. But it needs the commitment of senior people to make it happen. Courage. And I think for such great leaders, great universities, there's a huge hunger for it. So I am too very optimistic that it will come. I'm now personally taking a step into building a startup first time, hoping to change the world, of course.

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