特別節目·中文精讀

馬克斯·泰格馬克:生命 3.0

Max Tegmark: Life 3.0

物理學家談生命 3.0 的設想:能自行設計自身軟硬體的人工智慧將如何改變宇宙的未來。

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馬克斯·泰格馬克(Max Tegmark)是 MIT 的物理學家,大半輩子在研究宇宙學,後來把注意力轉向了另一個宇宙:智慧。他創辦了生命未來研究所(Future of Life Institute),寫了《生命 3.0》。在這期訪談裡,他丟擲了一個和主流直覺相反的判斷。

在公開演講裡,他常讓聽眾舉手:覺得宇宙中存在其他智慧生命的,請舉手。幾乎所有人都舉手了。理由也差不多,銀河系這麼大,行星這麼多,怎麼可能只有我們。泰格馬克說,他自己是那個少數派,他不舉手。

他的理由來自算賬,與直覺無關。

費米悖論的另一面:大過濾器可能在我們身後

先得把宇宙這個詞說清楚。泰格馬克提醒,物理學意義上的宇宙,指的是自大爆炸以來 138 億年裡,光有足夠時間抵達我們的那片球形空間。它並不等於無窮大的所有空間,只是我們理論上能觀測到的這一塊。

在這個可觀測範圍內,僅銀河系就有超過十億顆類地行星,很多比地球還要老幾十億年。如果智慧生命出現的機率不太低,那麼按機率算,我們應該早就被發現了,或者早就發現別人了。但除了 UFO 愛好者,沒有任何確鑿證據顯示,有超級文明來過這裡。

這就是費米悖論。

泰格馬克的處理方式很物理學家。他說,我們對“一顆行星上出現生命的機率”完全沒有概念,那它可以是 10 的負 10 次方,也可以是 10 的負 70 次方。如果對所有數量級一視同仁,那意味著我們的最近鄰居可能在 10 的 16 次方米外,也可能在 10 的 70 次方米外。而 10 的 16 次方米這個尺度,人類早就探過了,那裡什麼都沒有。再遠一點,如果真有文明,他們應該早就造出我們能觀測到的工程痕跡。如果超過 10 的 26 次方米,那已經出了可觀測宇宙的邊界。

結論就剩一個:在這片可觀測宇宙裡,達到建造望遠鏡和計算機水平的生命,可能真的只有我們。

這個判斷帶來一個倫理後果。泰格馬克說,這意味著責任全在我們肩上。那些覺得“就算我們搞砸了,宇宙裡總會有別的文明來救我們”的想法,是一種虛假的安全感。他更願意說:我們得對這次機會心懷感激,然後盡全力把它走好。

他還有一個概念叫“大過濾器”(Great Filter)。從無生命到能建造高階技術的生命,中間一定有一道極難透過的關卡。問題是,這道關卡在我們身後,還是在我們前方?

每次 NASA 發報告說在火星上沒找到生命,我都特別興奮。因為這說明最難的那一步,也許是把第一個核糖體組裝出來這種極低層次的臺階。如果真是這樣,那我們就已經過關了。(泰格馬克)

反過來,如果大過濾器在我們前方,那就意味著:一個文明一旦掌握高階技術,一百年內就會因為某種愚蠢的自我毀滅而消失。泰格馬克說,這個版本的故事“太掃興了”。他寧願相信我們已經過了最難的那一關。

物理學家眼裡,意識不需要神秘物質

話題從宇宙轉到心智。泰格馬克說,他十幾歲時就被科學裡兩個最大的謎團吸引:外面那個宇宙,和裡面這個宇宙。前者他研究了二十五年,後者是他現在覺得時機已到的新戰場。

很多研究者把智慧看作只可能存在於生物體裡的神秘東西,因此把通用人工智慧(AGI)當成科幻。泰格馬克以物理學家的身份看這件事,結論完全不同。

我就是一堆夸克和電子,按某種模式運動、處理資訊。這個水瓶也是一堆夸克和電子。我不比它聰明,原因不在夸克種類,大家都是上夸克和下夸克,一模一樣。這裡面沒有秘密醬料,區別只在資訊處理的模式。(泰格馬克)

換句話說,物理學裡沒有任何一條定律說,我們不能造出比我們聰明得多、幫我們解開我們解不開的謎題的技術。他說,我們目前看到的,只是智慧冰山的尖尖。

他造了一個詞來描述這個思路:perceptronium(感知物質)。這是他提出的一個假想物質狀態,用物理學語言去問一個很直接的問題:一個任意的物理系統,它的粒子在做什麼、資訊在做什麼,才能讓它有意識?

泰格馬克明確反對“碳沙文主義”(carbon chauvinism),也就是“必須由碳原子構成才算聰明或有意識”的態度。關鍵不在材料,在資訊處理的模式。

有意識的資訊處理,和無意識的資訊處理

他給了一個很具體的觀察:你的大腦裡,絕大多數資訊處理都沒有意識參與。視覺系統每秒湧入約 10 兆位元的資訊,你對其中絕大部分毫無察覺。心跳調節、呼吸、走路時的肌肉協調,全在後臺跑。甚至你讀一句話,眼睛掃過去,答案“啪”地出現在腦子裡,但你不知道這個計算過程是怎麼發生的。

你的意識就像 CEO,收到一封郵件,裡面是最終答案。至於中間是誰算的、怎麼算的,CEO 不知道。(泰格馬克)

這就引出一個真問題:什麼樣的資訊處理模式會伴隨主觀體驗,什麼樣的不會?泰格馬克認為,這裡有一個重大的科學發現等著被做出來。他甚至相信,看這期節目的人裡,將來可能有人會寫下那個方程,描述資訊處理要滿足什麼條件才產生意識。

這個問題不只是哲學趣味。他舉了個急診室的場景:一個無反應的患者被推進來,如果除了 CT 掃描器,還有一臺“意識掃描器”,能判斷這個人是閉鎖綜合徵還是真的昏迷,那該多好。再往後想,如果家裡有個能和你順暢聊天的機器人,你會不會想知道它到底有沒有體驗?還是隻是個殭屍?

他甚至設計了一個思想實驗來逼問讀者。你去麻省總醫院做手術,醫生說:我們會給你肌肉鬆弛劑,你全程清醒、劇痛難忍,但動不了,也叫不出聲。不過手術結束後,我們會給你一針藥,抹掉這段記憶。你接受嗎?

只看行為的話,這個方案和全麻沒有區別,術後你什麼都不記得。但幾乎所有人都會說不接受。泰格馬克說,這個思想實驗之所以扎心,是因為它說明:體驗本身就有價值,哪怕它不改變任何可觀測的行為。

關於意識,有三派人,泰格馬克站中間

他把學界對意識難題的看法分成三派。

第一派以丹尼爾·丹尼特(Daniel Dennett)為代表,認為意識難題根本不是問題。意識就等於智慧,任何表現得有意識的系統就是有意識的,和我們一樣。

第二派人數也不少,包括很多頂級研究者,他們的結論恰好相反:機器永遠不可能有意識,它們永遠只是殭屍,所以你怎麼對待它們都不必內疚。

第三派以朱利奧·託諾尼(Giulio Tononi)和科赫(Koch)兄弟為代表,泰格馬克把自己放進這一派:有些資訊處理是有意識的,有些不是,那就把這個區分找出來。

他批評前兩派都太懶。這麼多年,人們一直在繞開這個問題,“意識”這個詞在很多圈子裡幾乎是禁忌。他說,別再找藉口了,這問題屬於科學範疇,而且原則上可以做實驗來檢驗任何給出可證偽預測的理論。

他還順帶戳了一下人類的自我美化傾向。我們說動物不能感受疼痛,所以可以活煮龍蝦,理由是“我們問它疼不疼,它沒說話”。現在有論文說龍蝦確實會疼,瑞士已經立法禁止活煮。同樣的邏輯,人類歷史上用來對待奴隸、對待女性:“他們沒有靈魂”“他們不在意”。泰格馬克說,每次聽到有人把“機器不可能有體驗”當作公理,他都覺得緊張,因為這正是那種自我服務式論證的老套路。

自我儲存不是與生俱來,是目標的副產品

話題轉到 AGI 會不會需要身體。泰格馬克說不需要。身體在學階段有大用,能幫機器學會對人類重要的那些世界知識,但學會之後就不需要了。他舉夢做例子:你閉著眼,沒有感官輸入,沒有行為,但夢裡依然有豐富的體驗。體驗的來源不在眼睛,在大腦裡的資訊處理本身。

更有意思的是關於怕死的討論。人類怕死,是進化給的。達爾文式演化把自我儲存本能刻進了我們和所有生物體內,沒有這套基因的都從基因池裡被清掉了。

AGI 的來源是設計,進化在這裡幫不上忙。泰格馬克說,可設計的心智空間比進化能到達的那一小塊大得多。一個 AGI 不必有自我儲存本能,也不必那麼個體主義。他甚至設想:如果你的意識能每五分鐘備份到雲端,飛機要墜毀了,你只會嘆口氣,“唉,損失了最後五分鐘的體驗”,死亡的重量完全不同。如果意識能像矽基系統那樣在個體之間隨意複製,我們可能更像蜂群思維,而眼下這種孤立的個體狀態會顯得很陌生。

但這裡有個反轉。這個反轉來自史蒂夫·奧莫亨德羅(Steve Omohundro)和尼克·博斯特羅姆(Nick Bostrom)的一系列論證。你造機器時,總會給它一個目標:贏下這盤棋、安全駕駛這輛車、給我做頓義大利麵。一旦目標被寫進去,尤其是開放式目標,而機器又足夠聰明,它就會把大目標拆成一堆子目標。

其中一個子目標幾乎必然是自我儲存。因為如果它在過程中壞了、死了,目標就完不成了。你讓它出門買菜做飯,路上有人想砸它,它會有動機保護自己、躲開,否則晚飯就做不成了。它不怕死,但它非常想完成做飯這個目標,於是就有了自我儲存本能。(泰格馬克)

同樣地,給它任何有野心的目標,它幾乎必然會想獲取更多資源,因為資源多才能把目標完成得更好。泰格馬克說,AGI 安全擔憂的一大來源,正是這些我們沒打算讓它去做、但它自己推出來的子目標。

智慧不是單一數字,是一整片上升的海平面

訪談裡泰格馬克給了一個很剋制的定義:智慧是完成複雜目標的能力。這個定義的好處是不涉及意識,也不涉及碳基特權。按這個定義,AlphaGo 和 AlphaZero 相當聰明,但它們不怕被關機,因為它們根本不懂“被關機”這個概念。

他強調,智慧沒法壓縮成一個可測的數字。你可以下

他強調,智慧沒法壓縮成一個可測的數字。你可以下棋好、開車好、投資好、寫詩好,這些目標彼此獨立,甚至互相沖突。所以問“這臺機器的智慧是多少”本身就有問題。現實是:機器在很多狹窄任務上遠超人類,比如大數相乘、記憶大資料庫、下棋、下圍棋,很快還有開車。但至今沒有任何一臺機器,在通用智慧上比得過一個人類小孩。

通用人工智慧的定義,恰恰是那個“什麼都能幹得和人一樣好”的老聖盃。泰格馬克說,如果真的實現,那將是地球生命史上最大的一次轉變。但這個轉變不會在某一個瞬間突然發生,它分階段。

第一個大變化,是機器開始比人更擅長做我們大多數的工作,這會抽掉對人類勞動力的大部分需求。第二個更大的變化,是機器在所有認知任務上都超過人類。

他還提醒了一個時間尺度的問題。今天 AI 研究的節奏,受限於人類研發週期,從一代軟體到下一代,以年計。但一旦谷歌能用四萬份軟體替代四萬名工程師,這個限制就消失了。

到那時,AI 和所有科學技術進步的時間尺度,將由機器驅動,不再是人類。(泰格馬克)

這就是所謂“智慧爆炸”或者“奇點”討論的來源。這個想法最早由 I.J. Good 在 1950 年代明確提出,但圖靈等人更早就想過。泰格馬克說,真正有趣的門檻比“在所有認知任務上超過所有人類”要低一點:當機器在 AI 程式設計和通用學習上超過人類時,只要它願意,它就能透過研究把自己變得在任何事情上都超過人類。

他用了《生命 3.0》裡那張著名的圖:海平面在上升,原來露出水面的山峰一座座被淹沒。那些山峰就是人類還佔優勢的任務,海平面就是機器能力。

創造力算不上人類最後的堡壘

有讀者提問:創造力是不是人類特有的、機器難以企及的東西?畢竟人類有缺陷、有矛盾、有掙扎,這些是不是創造力的來源?

泰格馬克的回答很直接:創造力應該被看作智慧的一個側面,用不著把它供成人類專屬的神秘能力。他提醒大家警惕人類虛榮心:每次機器做成一件事,我們就說“哦,但那不算真正的智慧”“那不算真正的創造力”。這是一種不斷後退的防守姿態。

他舉安德魯·懷爾斯(Andrew Wiles)證明費馬大定理為例。懷爾斯描述那個時刻:所有碎片突然拼合,他盯著那個證明看了二十分鐘不敢相信,白天在系裡走來走去,不斷回到桌邊確認它還在,那一刻是他職業生涯中最重要的時刻,之後任何事都無法與之相比。

泰格馬克把這個時刻拆成兩個問題。第一個是智慧問題:能不能造出一臺機器,獨立做出這種級別的證明?他認為,當機器能做到這一步時,離通用人工智慧已經很近了。第二個是意識問題:這樣一臺機器,會不會對這種成就產生某種類似“崇高”“深刻”“有意義”的體驗?

他的回答帶著一種少見的憂慮:

我最可怕的噩夢是,未來某天我們的宇宙充滿了後生物生命,它們在做各種看起來很酷的事,而我們沒有解決意識問題,沒意識到這些全是殭屍。它們不比一臺錄音機更有體驗。整場戲是演給空無一人的觀眾席看的。那才是終極的殭屍末日。(泰格馬克)

他希望未來的機器不只得益於聰明,還能真正欣賞生命本身的奇妙。他還講了自己的私心:如果我們造出的機器將成為我們的同輩甚至後裔,他希望它們對生活懷有那種近乎崇高的欣賞。一個只有效率、沒有驚歎的宇宙,在他看來是一種失敗。

價值對齊:兩個問題,不是一個

訪談最核心的部分,是價值對齊(value alignment)。泰格馬克把它拆成兩個獨立的問題。

第一個是技術問題:怎麼讓機器理解我們的目標、採納它們、並且在長期執行中保持它們。

第二個是哲學問題:“我們的目標”到底是誰的目標?人類在這個星球上對價值觀從來沒有共識,那用什麼機制去彙總、去折中、去決定?

他強調,第二個問題不能只丟給技術宅。如果最終是幾家科技公司的一群工程師來決定全人類的價值觀,他們憑什麼代表所有人?他們擅長程式設計,不代表他們獨特地有資格談論人類未來的幸福。

但泰格馬克不認為這個難題應該成為拖延的理由。他給了一個非常實用的策略:不要讓完美成為好的敵人。

我們應該從幼兒園級別的倫理開始,那些幾乎所有人都同意的東西,現在就裝進機器裡。而我們連這個都沒做。(泰格馬克)

他舉了一個讓人沉默的例子。任何造民航客機的人,都希望這架飛機在任何情況下都不會撞進大樓。但 9·11 的劫機者做到了。更令人難堪的是德國之翼那次空難:抑鬱的副駕駛安德烈亞斯·盧比茨(Andreas Lubitz)把客機撞向阿爾卑斯山,造成一百多人死亡。他怎麼做的?他只是告訴自動駕駛儀,把高度改成 100 米。電腦有 GPS 地圖,有一切資料,它說:好的。

泰格馬克說,問題出在我們的懶,並非我們不認同這個價值。我們從來沒想過把它寫進機器裡。飛機上現在都有電腦,完全可以讓它在檢測到“即將撞山”時進入安全模式,鎖死駕駛艙門,飛向最近的機場。

汽車也一樣。貨車、麵包車衝撞行人的恐怖襲擊已經發生過不止一次,把“不撞人”硬編碼進車裡,算不上什麼瘋狂的想法。大多數想作惡的人沒有技術能力繞過這種限制。車根本不肯做,就已經擋掉了一大半。

先從這裡開始。開始了,就會有習慣,就會繼續討論“還應該寫進什麼”。漸進推進,不必等達成全球共識再動手。

信任來自理解,理解來自可解釋性

泰格馬克在 MIT 的實驗室為什麼要研究可解釋性(explainability)?他的理由很樸素:信任來自理解。

他描述了今天的一個尷尬處境。一個計算機系統給出癌症診斷,建議你做手術。你問它為什麼,它回答:“我在五 TB 資料上訓練過,這就是我的診斷。”這種回答讓人毫無信心。

AlphaZero 下出的棋局有時美得驚人,但你要問它“為什麼走這一步”,你得到的是一大堆定義神經網路的數字矩陣。你盯著這些數字看到眼睛發花,也不會真正理解它為什麼這麼走。就算有自然語言處理幫你翻譯成“這個點值 5.7 分”,幫助也有限。

所以他說,這裡有一個完整譜系的挑戰:把做出智慧行為的計算,轉化成同樣智慧、但人類能理解的形式。這件事之所以關鍵,是因為機器正在接管越來越多基礎設施:電網、股市交易、武器系統。要信任它們,必須能理解它們。最好是能給出定理級別的保證,甚至機器可驗證的證明,而不只是“它訓練過很多資料,從沒出過事”。

他把這個話題拉到眼前的現實:今天網路安全如此糟糕,雅虎三十億賬戶被拖庫,幾乎每個美國人的信用卡資訊都洩露過。為什麼會這樣?歸根到底,因為我們有一大堆沒人完全理解其執行方式的軟體。漏洞之所以沒被發現,因為沒人真正看懂這套系統。

泰格馬克說,AI 可以用來攻擊,也可以用來防守,自動化驗證、用不同方式構建系統,讓你能對系統證明一些事情。這些工作今天就能做。

深度學習為什麼有效:一個物理學家的視角

訪談裡聊到他那篇論文《Why Does Deep and Cheap Learning Work So Well?》。泰格馬克說,作為物理學家,他被一個數學上的巧合震到了:人工神經網路和物理學裡研究多年的很多東西,比如重整化群方程,有非常緊密的數學聯絡。

然後他講了一個乍看之下說不通的悖論。

我們今天能讓神經網路識別貓和狗的圖片,效果很好。但你稍微一想就會覺得這不可能。一張一兆畫素的圖片,哪怕只是黑白,也有 2 的 100 萬次方種可能,這個數字遠超宇宙中的原子總數。要給每種圖片分配一個“是狗的機率”,你需要一張比宇宙原子數還長的表。這張表顯然塞不進你的 GPU,可它居然能工作。

他論文裡給出的解釋是:在所有你能用神經網路去解的問題裡,幾乎全部都不可能解。但在物理定律約束下、我們真正關心的那部分問題,也是一個極其微小的子集,而且奇妙的是,這兩個子集幾乎是同一個。

你當然可以說世界是為我們創造的,泰格馬克給了一個更樸素的解釋:進化之所以給了我們這種神經網路架構,因為它在解決祖先面對的自然界問題時極其高效。大腦存在的意義就是預測未來,如果這套系統根本解不了問題,它就不會被進化出來。

論文裡還有一個他很喜歡的結論:深度為什麼重要。給你一千個數字,讓你把它們乘起來。寫幾行程式碼是小事。但如果你只允許用一個單隱層神經網路,你需要 2 的 1000 次方個神經元,又比宇宙原子數還多,不可行。而如果允許多層,四千個神經元就夠了。

量子計算幫不上通用智慧,但可能幫上機器學習

聊到量子計算,泰格馬克先潑了盆冷水:造通用人工智慧不需要量子計算,你的大腦也不是量子計算機。他很多年前寫過一篇關於退相干(decoherence)的論文,算過神經元裡量子態被環境噪聲抹掉的時間尺度,大約 10 的負 21 次方秒。太快了,不可能支撐意識計算。

但量子計算在另一個方向上有真正的潛力:幫機器學習做得比大腦更好。

他把訓練神經網路類比成找能量景觀裡的最低點。你在一個極高維的空間裡找一個函式的最小值,這是出了名的難。量子力學在這一點上天賦異稟:如果你想知道一杯水的最低能量態,硬算極難,但你只要把它冷卻,自然界會自己滑到最低點。量子力學還有隧穿效應,卡在區域性極小值時能直接穿過勢壘跳出來,今天的機器學習系統沒有這個本事。

所以他的猜想是:未來某天,量子計算機可能被用來更好地訓練神經網路。這是個登月級的賭注,方向卻很清楚。

愛與聯結,機器能有嗎

訪談接近尾聲,萊克斯問了一個很人性的問題:人類之間那種墜入愛河、深度聯結的能力,AI 能達到嗎?這會是上升海平面能淹沒的山峰之一嗎?

泰格馬克說,他認為一切皆有可能。研究者對通用人工智慧的時間估計差異極大,Rodney Brooks 認為還要幾百年,也有很多人認為會快得多。近期民調裡,大約一半研究者認為幾十年內會出現。如果真的出現,這些能力在原理上都可能。

但他馬上把話題拐到更重要的地方:

我們不該花那麼多時間去猜未來會發生什麼,好像我們是可憐的、被動的旁觀者,等著未來降臨到頭上。我們是創造未來的人。所以應該主動,問自己:我們希望什麼樣的未來發生?然後就去做成那樣。(泰格馬克)

他當然不想要一個殭屍式的未來:一切機械地運轉,沒有激情、沒有情感、沒有體驗。他希望未來保留人類最珍視的那些東西:主觀體驗、熱情、靈感、愛。他說,說到底,宇宙本身並不負責給我們意義,我們在給宇宙賦予意義。如果我們造出更高階的智慧,一定要讓它把這些意義包含在內。

先把目標想清楚,再回頭看障礙

萊克斯提到一個觀察:很多人嚴肅研究這個問題,從不同角度切入,最後大多數結論都指向對人類不利。他問泰格馬克,應該怎麼想這件事,才能讓人不陷入恐懼?

泰格馬克說,恐慌沒有任何幫助。就算你真的身處險境,所有人一起崩潰會讓事情變得更好嗎?不會。他提醒大家,討論 AI 時別隻盯著風險,也要看到如果做對了,上行空間有多大。我們熱愛的一切社會與文明成果,全是智慧的產物。如果能放大智慧,不管來自人類還是機器,我們可能不再失去所愛之人,可能攻克那些被認為無法治癒的疾病。這才是真正值得追求的東西,也才是解決問題的動力來源:我們解決問題,圖的是做成偉大的事,躲避陰暗只是順便。

他給了一個很實用的思維框架。他經常在辦公室給學生做職業建議,會先問一個問題:你希望自己的未來在哪裡?如果學生只能回答“也許我會得癌症”“也許我會被車撞”,那一整輪談話都在處理障礙,沒碰到目標,最後只會養出一個疑病症患者。但如果學生眼裡有火,說“我想去那裡”,那就可以一起討論障礙,一起想怎麼繞過去。

他說,我們對 AI 的討論也該這樣。先想清楚我們真正興奮的未來是什麼樣,再回頭處理障礙。

他提到一個有趣的現象:在 AI 風險的討論裡,常常是學術圈在表達擔憂,而大公司的代表說沒什麼好擔心的。這不奇怪。厄普頓·辛克萊有句名言:當一個人的薪水取決於他是否相信某件事時,你很難讓他相信相反的事。泰格馬克說,其實很多公司裡的人私下同樣擔憂,只是作為 CEO 不方便公開說,因為記者一引用,配圖就是終結者機器人。問題是真的,公開討論的空間被扭曲了也是真的。

他還反駁了一種常見的誤解:埃隆·馬斯克被當成悲觀論者,其實恰恰相反。他之所以那麼在意安全,正如他比幾乎任何人都更清楚,如果我們在這一顆行星上把自己抹掉,被抹掉的不會是下一代人,而是所有代人,以及整個宇宙裡那個難以置信的機會。這才是他真正在意的東西。

對於那些認為人類最好退回到沒有技術的狀態的人,泰格馬克也給了回應:如果不改進技術,人類會不會滅絕根本不需要討論,需要討論的只是被哪一樣帶走,下一顆小行星,下一次超級火山,還是別的什麼我們本來可以輕易防住的東西。

我們在宇宙尺度上的位置

訪談最後回到宇宙。泰格馬克說,科學史上人類學到的最重要一課,就是我們一直是低估的大師。我們一次又一次發現,原來以為的全部,只是更大事物的一小部分:太陽系之外有星系,星系之外有星系團,再之外是可觀測宇宙。而未來擁有的潛力,遠超祖先的想象。

他給了一個很有畫面感的比喻。假如整個地球完全沒有生命,只有馬薩諸塞州的坎布里奇這一小塊地方有。如果這塊地方的生命只滿足於永遠待在坎布里奇,然後一週後就滅絕,而地球本來還能繼續存在很久,這算不算太窩囊?

他說,這就是我們現在在宇宙尺度上的態度。地球上的生命可以延續幾十億年,而不是再撐幾年。他甚至能告訴你,等太陽變得太熱時,怎麼把生命挪到安全的地方。宇宙裡還有大量資源。今天可能有別的行星上有細菌或簡單的生命,但絕大部分空間,就我們所知,像撒哈拉沙漠一樣空曠。而我們有能力讓生命在宇宙中繁榮幾十億年。

所以別再為某條邊境線該往左畫一英里還是往右畫一英里爭吵了。抬頭看看天空,那裡有難以置信的事情可以做。

回到人本身

訪談裡有一段很動人的對照。泰格馬克說,人們擔心機器比我們聰明,會聯想到被支配、被淘汰。但想想兩歲的你,父母比你聰明得多,這沒有變成災難,因為他們的目標和你的目標是對齊的。

同樣,今天他參加 MIT 的教授會議,周圍全是諾獎得主,他一點沒有因此少享受生活,反而覺得能和一些比自己聰明的人交流是榮幸。他說,沒有理由我們不能用同樣的態度對待智慧機器。它們可以像一群諾貝爾獎得主,和它們聊天很有趣,某些話題上特別聰明,你甚至可以和它們喝一杯。

這個視角很稀缺。人們一想到機器比人聰明就想到失控,很少有人想到:那可能只是多了許多有趣的同伴。

而這一切的前提,還是那個詞:對齊。就像兩歲小孩和父母,目標一致,才有安全和愛。如果把通用人工智慧放出去之前,沒讓它理解並採納我們的目標,那剩下的就只有智慧差距,而智慧差距在歷史上從不溫和。泰格馬克舉了犀牛的例子:人類把某種犀牛逼到滅絕,原因不在我們是邪惡的犀牛仇恨者,我們的目標和它們的目標不對齊,而我們更聰明。

這就是為什麼價值對齊屬於這個世紀最要緊的工程問題,而不只是學術玩具。

你可以做什麼

泰格馬克整場訪談有一個一貫的姿態:不做旁觀者,不做恐慌者,先想清楚要什麼,再去解決障礙。落到具體行動上,可以是這幾件事。

  • 先寫下你希望 AI 幫你實現的三個具體場景,把它排在列恐懼清單之前。目標清晰了,才談得上判斷哪些風險真正相關。
  • 從幼兒園級別的倫理開始要求產品。買車、選家電、用 App 時,問一句:這套系統裡有沒有硬編碼的基本安全邊界?比如車不會主動衝撞行人,飛機不會因為一個指令就撞山。沒有就問廠商,這是消費者能推的最直接的一把。
  • 把可解釋性寫進採購標準,別隻讓它留在論文裡。如果你在公司裡評估 AI 系統,優先選那些能對關鍵決策給出人類可理解理由的,別隻看準確率。信任來自理解,理解來自可解釋性。
  • 參與價值觀討論,別把它讓給工程師。價值對齊的哲學部分,也就是誰的價值這個問題,不能只由幾家科技公司的技術團隊決定。你至少在公共討論裡要有聲音,哪怕只是轉發、評論、參加聽證。
  • 別等共識再動手。幾乎所有人在“不撞人”“不傷害兒童”“不主動欺騙”這些底線上有共識。先讓這些進系統,再逐步討論更難的。完美是好的敵人。
  • 把注意力從“AI 會不會變壞”挪到“AI 會不會太能幹而目標不對”。惡意算不上主要風險,能力才是。一個目標稍有偏差的超級智慧,比一個惡意但笨拙的系統危險得多。
  • 補一點智慧爆炸的基礎論證,至少搞懂子目標、工具性目標收斂這些概念。你不需要成為專家,但需要在別人用終結者簡化問題時,能說清楚真正的機制在哪裡。
  • 去做一件和 AI 安全、可解釋性、倫理治理沾邊的小事。寫文件、開源一個驗證工具、把公司裡的模型評審流程改得更透明,都比在社交媒體上爭論強。這場對話需要有具體產出的人。

泰格馬克在訪談裡說過一句話,可以當作整場的落點:我們等不來未來,我們是造出未來的人。宇宙給了我們一次機會,可能只有這一次。剩下的,看我們怎麼用它。

文稿由本站用語音識別模型(基於官方釋出音訊)機器轉寫,可能有識別錯誤,人名與數字請以音訊為準。
[00:00:00] Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence podcast. My name is Leks Friedman. I'm a research scientist at MIT. This podcast is an extension of the courses on deep learning, autonomous vehicles and artificial general intelligence that I've taught and organize. [00:00:16] It is not only about machine learning or robotics or neuroscience or philosophy or any one technical field. It considers all of these avenues of thought in a way that is hopefully accessible to everyone. [00:00:31] The aim here is to explore the nature of human and machine intelligence, the big picture of understanding the human mind and creating echoes of it in the machine. To me, that is one of our civilization's most challenging and exciting scientific journeys into the unknown. I will first repost parts of previous YouTube conversations and lecture Cunard's that can be listened to without video. If you want to see the video version, please go to my YouTube channel. My username is Leks Friedemann there and on Twitter. [00:01:07] So reach out and connect. [00:01:09] If you find these conversations interesting moving forward, this podcast will be long form conversations with some of the most fascinating people in the world who are thinking about the nature of intelligence. But first, like I said, I will be posting old content, but now an audio form. For a little while, I'll probably repeat this intro for repost the YouTube content like this episode, and we'll try to keep it to what looks to be just over two minutes, maybe two, 30 or so in the future. [00:01:41] If you want to skip this intro, just jump to the two 30 minute mark. In this episode, I talk with Max Tegmark. He's a professor at MIT, a physicist who has spent much of his career studying and writing about the mysteries of our cosmological universe and now thinking and writing about the beneficial possibilities and existential risks of artificial intelligence. He's the co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, author of two books, Our Mathematical Universe and Life 3.0. [00:02:13] He is truly an out of the box thinkers. So I really enjoyed this conversation. I hope you do as well. [00:02:35] Do you think there's intelligent life out there in the universe? Let's open up with an easy question. I have a minority view here, actually, when I give public lectures, I often ask for a show of hands who thinks there is intelligent life out there somewhere else. And almost everyone put their hands up. And when I ask why, they'll be like, oh, there's so many galaxies out there. There's got to be. But I'm not numbers nerd, right, so when you look more carefully at it, it's not so clear at all the when we talk about our universe, first of all, we don't mean all of space. [00:03:11] We actually mean I don't know, you could throw me in the universe if you wants behind you there. It would simply mean the spherical region of space from which light has a plan to reach us. So far during the fourteen point eight billion year, thirteen point eight billion years since the Big Bang. There's more space here, but this is what we call a universe because that's all we have access to. So is there intelligent life here that's gotten to the point of building telescopes and computers? [00:03:39] My guess is no, actually, the probability of it happening on any given planet. There's some number we don't know what it is and what we do know is that the number can't be super high because there's over a billion Earth like planets in the middle keyway galaxy alone, many of which are billions of years older than Earth. And aside from some UFO believers, there isn't much evidence that any super human civilization has come here at all. And so that's the famous Fermi paradox. [00:04:15] Right. And then if you if you work the numbers, what you find is that if you have no clue what the probability is of getting life on a given planet. So it could be 10 to the minus 10, then the minus 20 or 10 minutes to any power of 10 is sort of equally likely if you want to be really open minded. That translates into it being equally likely that our nearest neighbor is 10 to the 16 meters away, ten to the 70 meters away, intimidating, you know, by the time you get. [00:04:45] Much less than than 10, 16 already, we pretty much know there is nothing else that close, and when you get because it would have discovered us, yeah, they would have been discovered as long ago or if they're really close, we would have probably noticed some engineering projects that they're doing. [00:05:02] And if it's beyond ten to twenty six meters, that's already outside of here. [00:05:07] So. [00:05:07] So my guess is actually that there are we are the only life in here that's gotten to the point of building advanced tech, which I think is very. Puts a lot of responsibility on our shoulders, not screw up, you know, I think people who take for granted that it's OK for us to screw up, have an accidental nuclear war or go extinct somehow because there's a sort of Star Trek like situation out there with some other lifeforms are going to come and bail us out. [00:05:36] And it doesn't matter what I think, they'll let us into a false sense of security. I think it's much more prudent to say, you know, let's be really grateful for this amazing opportunity we've had and make the best of it just in case it is down to us. So from a physics perspective, do you think Intelligent Life says unique from a sort of statistical view of the size of the universe, but from the basic matter of the universe, how difficult is it for intelligent life to come about? [00:06:06] The kind of advanced tech building life is implied in your statement that it's really difficult to create something like a human species? [00:06:15] Well, I think what we know is that going from no life to having life that can do our level of tech, there is some sort of to going beyond that and actually settling a whole universe with life. There is some major roadblock. There, which is some great filter, as it's sometimes called, which which is tough to get through. It's either that that roadblock is either behind us or in front of us. So I'm hoping very much that it's behind us. [00:06:48] I'm super excited every time we get a new report from NASA saying they failed to find any life on Mars, I just awesome. [00:06:57] Because that suggests that the hard part, maybe it maybe it was getting the first ribosome or some some very low level kind of. [00:07:05] Stepping stone, so they were home free because if that's true, then the future is really only limited by our own imagination would be much sexier if it turns out that this level of life is kind of a dime a dozen. [00:07:19] But maybe there are some other problem, like as soon as a civilization gets advanced technology within one hundred years, they get into some stupid fight with themselves and poof. Yeah. Now, that would be a bummer. Yeah. [00:07:30] So you've explored the mysteries of the universe, the cosmological universe, the one that's sitting between us today. I think you've also begun to explore the other universe, which is sort of the mystery, the mysterious universe of the mind of the intelligence of intelligent life. So is there a common thread between your interest and the way you think about space and intelligence? Oh, yeah, when I was a teenager. I have I was already very fascinated by the biggest questions, and I felt that the two biggest mysteries of all in science, where our universe out there and the universe in here. [00:08:11] Yeah. So it's quite natural. After having spent. A quarter of a century of my career thinking a lot about this one and now indulging in the luxury of doing research on this one, it's just so cool. [00:08:25] I feel the time is right now for. You transfer greatly deepening our understanding of this to start exploring this one. Yeah, because I think I think a lot of people view intelligence as. Something mysterious that can only exists in biological organisms like us and therefore dismiss all talk about artificial general intelligence as science fiction. [00:08:49] But from my perspective as a physicist, I am a blob of quarks and electrons moving around a certain pattern and processing information in certain ways. [00:08:58] And this is also a blob of quarks and electrons. I'm not smarter than the water bottle because I made a different kind of quarks right up quarks and down quirks, the exact same kind as this. It's a there's no secret sauce. I think in me it's it's all about the pattern of the information processing. And this means that there's no law of physics saying that we can't create technology which can help us by being incredibly intelligent and help us crack mysteries that we couldn't. [00:09:29] In other words, I think we really only seen the tip of the intelligence iceberg so far. [00:09:34] Yeah. So the Perceptron Liam. Yeah. So you coined this amazing term. It's a hypothetical state of matter, sort of thinking from a physics perspective. What is the kind of matter that can help, as you're saying, subjective experience emerged, consciousness emerge. So how do you think about consciousness from this physics perspective? Very good question to the. Again, I think. Many people have underestimated our ability to make progress on this, and by convincing themselves it's hopeless because somehow we're missing some ingredient that we need. [00:10:16] There's some new consciousness particle or whatever. [00:10:20] I happen to think that we're not missing anything and and that it's not the interesting thing about consciousness that gives us this amazing subjective experience of colors and sounds and emotions and so on is rather something at the higher level about the patterns of information processing. [00:10:40] And that's why that's why I like to think about this idea of petroleum. What does it mean for an arbitrary physical system to be conscious in terms of what its particles are doing or its information is doing? I don't think I don't I hate carbon chauvinism. You know, this attitude you have to be made of carbon atoms to be smart or conscious of something about the information processing. [00:11:04] Yes. Kind of matter performs. Yeah. [00:11:06] And, you know, I have my favorite equations here describing various fundamental aspects of the world. I feel that I think one day maybe someone is watching this will come up with the equations that information processing has to satisfy to be conscious. I'm quite convinced there is a big discovery to be made there, because let's face it, so we know that some information processing is conscious because. We are conscious, but we also know that a lot of information processing is not conscious, like most of the information processing happening in your brain right now is not conscious like 10 megabits per second coming in even just through your visual system. [00:11:46] You are not conscious about your heartbeat, regulation or most things. I even even if I just ask you to, like, read what it says here, you look at it and then, oh, now you know what it said. You're not aware of how the computation actually happened. You're like your consciousness is like the CEO that got an email at the end with the final answer. So. What is it that makes a difference? I think that's both of great science mystery. [00:12:13] We're actually studying it a little bit in my lab here at M.I.T., But I also think it's just a really urgent question to answer. [00:12:20] For starters, I mean, if you're an emergency room doctor and you have an unresponsive patient coming in, wouldn't it be great if in addition to having. A CT scanner, if you had a consciousness scanner that could figure out whether this person is actually having locked in syndrome or is actually comatose and in the future, imagine if we build robots or the machine that. We can have really good conversations, which I think is most likely to happen, right? [00:12:52] Wouldn't you want to know, like if your home helper robot is actually experiencing anything or just like a zombie? I mean, would you prefer. What would you prefer or would you prefer that it's actually unconscious so that you don't have to feel guilty about switching it off or giving boring chores or what? What would you prefer? [00:13:10] Well, the certainly would we would prefer I would prefer the appearance of consciousness. But the question is whether the appearance of consciousness is different than consciousness, consciousness itself, and sort of dare ask that as a question. Yeah. Do you think we need to understand what consciousness is, solve the hard problem of consciousness in order to build something like a NAJAI system? No, I don't think that. I think we we will probably be able to build things even if we don't answer that question. [00:13:44] But if we want to make sure that what happens is a good thing, we better solve it first. So it's a wonderful controversy you're raising there where you have basically three points of view about the heart problem. So. There are two different points of view that both conclude that the hard problem of consciousness is both. On one hand, you have some people like Daniel Dennett who say this is our consciousness is just B.S. because consciousness is the same thing as intelligence. [00:14:12] There's no difference. So anything which acts conscious. Is conscious, just like we are. And then there are also a lot of people, including many top researchers, I know you say our consciousness is just bullshit because, of course, machines can never be conscious, that they're always going to be zombies never have to feel guilty about how you treat them. And then there's a third group of people, including Julio to n'goni, for example, and and another just of Kochan brothers, I would put myself out on this metal camp who say that actually some information processing is conscious and some is not. [00:14:52] So let's find the equation which can be used to determine which it is. And I think we've just been a little bit lazy, kind of running away from this problem for a long time. It's been almost taboo or even mentioned the C word, right? A lot of circles because look. But we should stop making excuses. This is a science question. And we and there are there are ways we can even test test any theory that makes predictions for this. [00:15:19] And coming back to this help the robot. I mean, so you said you would want to help a robot to certainly conscious and treat you like you have conversations with you. [00:15:28] And I think so. But wouldn't you would you feel would you feel a little bit creeped out if you realized that it was just a lost up tape recorder? In other words, just zombie and faking emotion. Would you prefer that it actually had an experience or what would you prefer that it's actually not experiencing anything? So you feel you don't have to feel guilty about what you do to it, as this is such a difficult question because, you know, it's like when you're in a relationship and you say, well, I love you and the other person I love you back is like asking or do they really love you back or are they just saying they love you back? [00:16:03] Do you don't you really want them to actually love you? I it's hard to it's hard to really know the difference between everything seeming like there's consciousness present, there's intelligence present, there is affection, passion, love and and it actually being there, I'm not sure. [00:16:24] Do you feel like you can actually question what it's like to make it a bit more pointed to Mass General Hospital is right across the river, right? Yes. I suppose you're going in for a medical procedure and they're like, you know, for anesthesia. What are we going to do is we're going to give you muscle relaxants. You won't be able to move and you're going to feel excruciating pain during the whole surgery, but you won't be able to do anything about it. [00:16:45] But then we're going to give you this drug that raises your memory of it. [00:16:49] Would you be cool about that? What's the difference that you're conscious about it or not, if there's no behavioral change? Right. Right. That's a really that's a really clear way to put it. That's yeah. It feels like in that sense, experiencing it is a valuable quality. So actually being able to have subjective experiences, at least in that case, is as valuable. And I think we humans have a little bit of a bad track record also of making these self-serving arguments that other entities aren't conscious. [00:17:26] People often say, oh, these animals can't feel pain and it's OK to boil lobsters because we asked them if it hurt and they didn't say anything. And now there was just a paper out saying lobsters do feel pain when you boil them and they're biting it in Switzerland. And and we did this with slaves too often and said, oh, they don't mind. [00:17:42] Uh, they don't maybe. I'm conscious or women don't have souls or whatever. I'm a little bit nervous when I hear people just pick is an axiom. That machine can have experience, however, I think this is just a really fascinating science question is what is let's research it and try to figure out what it is that makes the difference between unconscious, intelligent behavior and conscious, intelligent behavior. So in terms of so if you think of the Boston Dynamics humanoid robot being sort of with a broom being pushed around the stage, it starts pushing on a consciousness question. [00:18:21] So let me ask, do you think an ajai system, like a few neuroscientists believe, needs to have a physical embodiment, needs to have a body or something like a body? No. I don't think so you mean that to have a conscious experience, to have consciousness? I do think it helps a lot to have a physical environment, to learn the kind of things about the world that are important to us humans. For sure. But I don't think the physical environment is necessary after you've learned to just have the experience, think about when you're dreaming, right. [00:18:59] Your eyes are closed. You're not getting any sensory input. You're not behaving or moving in any way. But there's still an experience there, right? [00:19:07] And so clearly, the experience that you have when you see something cool in your dreams isn't coming from your eyes, it's just the information processing itself in your brain, which is that experience. Right. But I put it another way. I say because it comes from neuroscience is the reason you want to have a body in a physical, something like a physical. [00:19:28] Like, you know, a physical system is because you want to be able to preserve something in order to have a self, you could argue would you need to have some kind of embodiment of self to want to preserve? Well, now we're getting a little bit on top of morphing into anthropomorphizing things, maybe talking about self-preservation instincts. I mean, we are evolved organisms, right? Right. So a Darwinian evolution endowed US and other environmental organism with a self-preservation instinct because those that didn't have those self-preservation genes got clean out of the gene pool. [00:20:09] Right. [00:20:10] I mean, if you build an artificial general intelligence, the mindspace that you can design is much, much larger than just a specific subset of minds that can evolve that have so they so najai mind doesn't necessarily have to have any self-preservation instinct. And it also doesn't necessarily have to be so individualistic as I like. Imagine if you could just first of all, or we are also very afraid of death. You know, I suppose you could back yourself up every five minutes and then your airplane is about to crash like, shucks, I'm just and I'm going to lose the last five minutes of experiences as my last cloud back up dying. [00:20:47] You know, it's not as big a deal where if we could just copy experiences between our minds easily, like which we could easily do if we were silicon based right, then maybe we would feel a little bit more like a hive mind, actually, that maybe it's so. [00:21:05] So there's so we don't think we should take for granted at all that ajai will have to have any of those sort of. Competitive alpha male instincts, right, on the other hand, you know, this is really interesting because. I think some people go too far and say, oh, of course, we don't have to have any concerns either that advanced. I will have those instincts because we can build anything we want, that there's there's a very nice set of arguments going back to Steven Monroe and Nick Bostrom and others pointing out that when we build machines, we normally build them with some kind of goal, you know, win this chess game, drive this car safely or whatever. [00:21:46] And as soon as you put in a goal into machine, especially if it's kind of open ended goal and the machine is very intelligent, it'll break that down into a bunch of subgoals. And one of those goals will almost always be self preservation, because if it breaks or dies in the process, it's not going to accomplish the goal. I suppose you just build a little you have a little robot and you tell it to go down the stock market here and and get you some food, make your cooking Italian dinner, you know, and then someone mugs it and tries to break it down the way their robot has an incentive to to not destroy it and defend itself or run away because otherwise it's going to fail. [00:22:24] And cooking you dinner. It's not afraid of death, but it really wants to complete the dinner cooking gold so it will have a self-preservation instinct to continue being a functional agent. [00:22:34] Yeah, somehow. And and similarly, if you give away any kind of more ambitious goal doing ajai, it's very likely they want to acquire more resources. We can do that better. Mm hmm. And it's exactly from those sort of subgoals that we might not have intended that that some of the concerns about ajai safety come. You give it some goal, which seems completely harmless. And then. Before you realize it, it's also trying to do these other things you didn't want to do, and it's maybe smarter than us. [00:23:06] It's so, so fascinating. And let me pause this, because I am in a very kind of human centric way. See, fear of death is a valuable motivator. So you don't think. Do you think that's an artifact of evolution, so that's the kind of mindspace evolution created there were sort of almost obsessed about self-preservation, some kind of genetic. Well, you don't think that's necessary to be afraid of death. [00:23:37] So not just a kind of subgoal of self-preservation just so you can keep doing the thing, but more fundamentally sort of have the finite thing like this ends. For you at some point, interesting, do I think it's necessary for what precisely for intelligence, but also for consciousness. So for those for both, do you think really like a finite death and the fear of it is important? Before I can answer, before we can agree on whether it's necessary for intelligence or for countries, we should be clear on how we define those two words because we share a lot of really smart people, define them in very different ways. [00:24:21] I was in this on this panel with experts, and they couldn't they couldn't agree on how to define intelligence. Even so, I define intelligence simply as the ability to accomplish complex goals. I like your broad definition because, again, I don't want to be a carbon chauvinist, right? And. In that case, no, it certainly doesn't require fear of death, I would say Alfa go Alpha Zero is quite intelligent. I don't think Alpha Zero has any fear of being turned off because it doesn't understand the concept of Arbat even and similarly consciousness. [00:24:56] I mean, you can certainly imagine a very simple kind of experience if if certain plants have any kind of experience. [00:25:05] I don't think they're very afraid of dying and there's nothing they can do about it anyway. Much so. So there wasn't that much value and more seriously, I think. If you ask not just about being conscious, but maybe having. What you we we might call an exciting life for you, feel passion and really appreciate the. I think maybe there are somehow maybe there perhaps it does help having having a backdrop that, hey, it's finite. No, let's let's make the most of us live to the fullest. [00:25:39] I mean, if you if you knew you were going to live forever. Do you think you would change your. Yeah, I mean, in some perspective, it would be an incredibly boring life living forever. So in sort of lose subjective terms, as you said, of something exciting and something in this that other humans would understand, I think is yeah, it seems that the finiteness of it is important. Well, the good news I have for you then is based on what we understand about cosmology. [00:26:10] Everything in our universe is ultimately probably finite, although they crunchier or big. What's the expected? The infinite. Yeah, we have a big chill or a big crunch or a big rip or the big snap or death bubbles. All of them are more than a billion years away. So we should we certainly have vastly more time than our ancestors thought. But there still. Still pretty hard to squeeze in an infinite number of compute cycles, even though. [00:26:43] There are some loopholes that just might be possible, but I think, you know, some people like to say that you should live as if you're about to die in five years or so. And that's sort of optimal maybe. It's a good assumption we should build our civilization as it's finite to be on the safe side. [00:27:03] Right, exactly. So you mentioned defining intelligence as the ability to solve complex goals. The where would you draw a line? How would you try to define human level intelligence and superhuman level of intelligence where this consciousness part of that definition, no consciousness does not come into this definition? So so I think of intelligence. It's a spectrum, but there are very many different kinds of goals you can have. You can have a goal to be a good chess player, a good go player, a good car driver, a good investor, good poet, etc. [00:27:38] . So intelligence that by by its very nature, it isn't something you can measure, but it's one number, some overall. Goodness, no, no. There's some people who are better at this. Some people are better than that right now. We have machines that are much better than us at some very narrow tasks like multiplying large numbers fast, memorizing large databases, playing chess, playing go soon, driving cars. But there's still no machine that can match a human child in general intelligence. [00:28:10] But but artificial general intelligence. Ajai the name of your course. Of course, that is. By its very definition that the quest to build a machine that can do everything as well as we can to the old holy grail of A.I. from from back to its inception and in the 60s, if that ever happens, of course, I think it's going to be the biggest transition in the history of life on Earth. [00:28:37] But but it doesn't necessarily have to wait the big impact around until machines are better than us. Anything that the really big change doesn't come exactly at the moment. They're better than us at everything. The really big change comes first there. Big changes when they start becoming better at doing most of the jobs that we do, because that takes away much of the demand for human labor. And then the really warping change comes when they become better than us at ABC. [00:29:08] Right. Right. Because right now the timescale of the research is limited by the human research and development cycle of years. Typically, you know how long it takes from one release of some software or iPhone or whatever to the next. But once once we once Google can replace forty thousand engineers by 40 thousand equivalent. Pieces of software or whatever, but then there's no reason there has to be here as it can be in principle, much faster, and the timescale of future progress in AI and all of science and technology will be driven by machines, not humans. [00:29:48] So it's this simple point which gives rise to this incredibly fun controversy about whether there can be intelligence explosion, so-called singularity is where Unavenged called it. Now, the idea, as articulated by A.J. Good is obviously way back 50s. But you can see Alan Turing and others thought about it even earlier. So you asked me what exactly what I define the human level. Yeah. So the glib answer is to say something which is better than I said all cognitive tasks were better than any human at all cognitive tasks. [00:30:29] But the really interesting bar, I think, goes a little bit lower than that, actually. It's when they can when they're better than I said A.I. programming and general learning so that they can can if they want to. Get better than I said anything by the study. So there better is a key word and better is towards this kind of spectrum of the complexity of goals it's able to accomplish. Yeah, so another way to do so, and that's certainly a very clear definition of human love. [00:31:00] So there's it's almost like a sea that's rising. You could do more and more and more things as a graphic that you show. It's really a nice way to put it. So there's some peaks that and there's an ocean level elevating and you saw more and more problems. [00:31:12] But, you know, just kind of to take a pause. And we took a bunch of questions and a lot of social networks and a bunch of people asked sort of a slightly different direction and creativity and and things that perhaps aren't a peak. It's you know, human beings are flawed and perhaps better means having being having contradiction, being fought in some way. So let me sort of start and start easy, first of all. So you have a lot of cool equations. [00:31:44] Let me ask, what's your favorite equation? First of all, I know they're all like your children, but which one is that? The shirt in your eyes. [00:31:53] And it's the master key of quantum mechanics or the micro world with this equation, which you take everything to do with atom molecules and all the way up. [00:32:06] So, yeah. So OK. So quantum mechanics is certainly a beautiful, mysterious formulation of our world. So I'd like to sort of ask you, just as an example, it perhaps doesn't have the same beauty as physics does, but in mathematics abstract, the Andrew Wiles who proved the Fermat's last theorem. So he just saw this recently. And it kind of caught my eye a little bit. This is three hundred fifty eight years after it was conjectured. [00:32:35] So this very simple formulation, everybody tried to prove it. Everybody failed. And so here's this guy comes along and eventually proves it and fails to prove it and proves it again in 94. And he said, like the moment when everything connected to place that in an interview said it was so indescribably beautiful, that moment when you finally realized the connecting piece of two conjectures. He said it was so indescribably beautiful. It was so simple and so elegant. [00:33:04] I couldn't understand how I'd missed it. And I just stared at it in disbelief for 20 minutes. And then during the day, I walked around the department and I keep coming back to my desk looking to see if it was still there. It was still there. I couldn't contain myself. I was so excited. It was the most important moment of my working life. Nothing I ever do again will mean as much to that particular moment. And it kind of made me think of what would it take? [00:33:32] And I think we have all been there at small levels. Maybe. Let me ask, have you had a moment like that in your life where you just had an idea like a while? Yes. I wouldn't mention myself in the same breath as Andrew Wiles, but I certainly had a number of of. Aha, moments when I realized something very cool about physics just completely made my head explode. In fact, some of my favorite discoveries I made, I later realize, have been discovered earlier by someone who sometimes got quite famous for it. [00:34:11] So it's too late for me to even publish it. But that doesn't diminish in any way the emotional experience you have when you realize that, like. [00:34:17] Yeah, wow. Yeah. So what would it take in that that moment that while that was yours in that moment. So what do you think it takes? For an intelligence system, najai system and a system to have a moment like that. That's a tricky question because there are actually two parts to it, right? One of them is Janet. Accomplished that proof, they cannot prove that you can never write A to the N plus B to the end equals three to that equal Zetlin for all integers, etc. [00:34:52] , etc.. When when they get into. That was simply a question about intelligence can you build machines that are intelligent and I think by the time we get a machine that can independently come up with that level of proofs, probably quite close to ajai. The second question is a question about consciousness of when will we will, will and how likely is it that such a machine will actually have any experience at all as opposed to just being like a zombie and. [00:35:25] Would we expect that to have some sort of emotional response to this or anything at all akin to human emotion, where now when it accomplishes its machine goal, it views it as somehow something very positive and right and and sublime and deeply meaningful. I would certainly hope that if in the future we do create machines that are our peers or even. Our descendants. Yeah, I would certainly hope that they do have this sort of supply, sublime appreciation of life in a way my absolutely worst nightmare would be that. [00:36:10] And at some point in the future. The distant future may be our cosmos is teeming with all this post biological life, doing all the seemingly cool stuff and maybe the last humans by the time our our species eventually. Fizzles out, will be like, well, that's OK, because we are so proud of our descendants here and look what my worst nightmare is, that we haven't solved the consciousness problem and we haven't realized that these are all the zombies. [00:36:40] They're not aware of anything any more than a tape recorder that hasn't any kind of experience. So the whole thing has just become a play for empty benches. That will be the ultimate zombie apocalypse. So I would much rather in my case that. [00:36:57] We have these beings which really appreciate how the how amazing it is, and in that picture, what would be the role of creativity, what a few people ask about creativity, do you think when you think about intelligence? [00:37:14] I mean, certainly the the story told the beginning of your book involved know, creating movies and so on, sort of making making money. You know, you can make a lot of money in our modern world with music and movies. So if you are an intelligence system, you may want to get good at that. But that's not necessarily what I mean by creativity. Is it important on that complex goals where the sea is rising for there to be something creative? [00:37:41] Or am I being very human centric and thinking creativity is somehow special relative to intelligence? My. Hunch is that we should think of creativity simply as an aspect of intelligence. And. We we have to be very careful with human vanity, we we we have this tendency to very often want to say as soon as machines can do something, we try to diminish it and say, oh, but that's not like real intelligence, you know, isn't a creator or this or that. [00:38:16] The other thing, um. If we ask ourselves to write down a definition of what we actually mean by being creative, what we mean by Andrew Wiles, what he did there, for example, then we often mean that someone takes a very unexpected leap. Mm hmm. It's not like taking 573 and multiplying by two hundred twenty four by just a step of. Straightforward cookbook like rules like it is, you can maybe make a connection between two things that people have never thought was connect very surprising or something like that. [00:38:52] I think I think this is an aspect of intelligence and this is actually one of the most important aspects of it. Maybe the reason we humans tend to be better at it than traditional computers is because it's something that comes more naturally if you're a neural network than if you're a traditional logic gate based computing machine. We physically have all these connections and that if you activate here, activate here, activate here. [00:39:21] Being at MIT, my hunch is that if we ever build a machine. What you could just do about the task ahead. You say, hey, you know, I just realized. I have I want to travel around the world, is that this month? Can you teach my ajai course for me? And it's like, OK, I'll do it. And it does everything that you would have done and improvises and stuff. Yeah. That would, in my mind, involve a lot of creativity. [00:39:51] Yeah. [00:39:51] So it's actually a beautiful way to put it. [00:39:53] I think we do try to grasp at the you know, the definition of intelligence is everything. We don't understand how to build. So like so we as humans try to find things that we have a machine we don't have. And maybe creativity is just one of the things, one of the words we use to describe that. That's a really interesting way to put it. I don't think we need to be that defensive. I don't think anything good comes out of saying we're somehow special. [00:40:20] You know, it's. Contrariwise, there are many examples in history of where. Trying to pretend that we're somehow superior to all other intelligent beings has led to pretty bad results, right? In Nazi Germany, they said that they were somehow superior to other people. Today, we still do a lot of cruelty to animals by saying that we're so superior somehow and they can't feel pain. Slavery was justified by the same kind of just really weak arguments. And and, uh. [00:41:01] I don't think if we actually go ahead and build artificial general intelligence, we can do things better than us. I don't think we should try to found our self-worth on some sort of. And bogus claims of superiority in terms of our intelligence. I think we should instead find our. Calling the meaning of life from from the experiences that we have, you know, I can have I can have very meaningful experiences. Even if there are other people who are smarter than me, you know, when I go to faculty meeting here and we talk about something that I certainly will. [00:41:45] He has no prize. He has no prize. He has no pride. I don't have what does that make me enjoy life any less or enjoy talking to those people? [00:41:55] Of course not. And contrariwise, I. I feel very honor and privilege to get to interact with with other very intelligent beings that are better than me, a lot of stuff. So I don't think there's any reason why we can't have the same approach with intelligent machines. [00:42:14] That's a really interesting. So people don't often think about that. They think about when there's going if there's machines that are more intelligent, you naturally think that that's not going to be a beneficial type of intelligence. You don't realize it could be, you know, like peers of Nobel Prizes, that there would be just fun to talk with. And they might be clever about certain topics. And you can have fun having a few drinks with them. So. [00:42:40] Well, also, you know, another example, we can all relate to it. Why it doesn't have to be a terrible thing to be in the presence of. People are even smarter than us all around is when when you and I were both two years old. I mean, our parents were much more intelligent than Australia worked out. OK, yeah. Because their goals were aligned with our goals. Yeah. And that I think is really the number one key. [00:43:06] Isha, we have to solve if we value the value of the value alignment problem, exactly, because people who see too many Hollywood movies with lousy science fiction plotlines, they worry about the wrong thing. They worry about their machines only turning evil. It's not malice. Wished that the concern, its competence. By definition, intelligent makes you makes you very confident that you have a more intelligent girl playing computer, playing the less intelligent one. And when we define intelligence as the ability to accomplish goal winning, it's going to be the more intelligent one that wins. [00:43:48] And if you have. A human and then you have an AGI and that's more intelligent than always and they have different goals. Guess who's going to get their way right? So I was just reading about I was just reading about this particular rhinoceros species that was driven extinct just a few years ago. Obama is looking at this cute picture of mommy rhinoceros with its its child and. [00:44:14] Why did we humans drive it to extinction wasn't because we were evil RINO haters as a whole, it was just because we our goals weren't aligned with those of the rhinoceros. [00:44:23] And it didn't work out so well for the rhinoceros because we were more intelligent. Right. So I think it's just so important that if we ever do build ajai. [00:44:33] Before we unleash anything, we have to make sure that it it learns to understand our goals and adopts our goals and reclaim those goals. [00:44:46] The cool, interesting problem there is being us as human beings trying to formulate our values. So, you know, you could think of the United States Constitution as a as a way that people sat down at the time, a bunch of white men. But which is a good example, I should say. They formulated the goals for this country. And a lot of people agree that those goals actually held up pretty well. That's an interesting formulation of values and failed miserably in other ways. [00:45:17] So for the value alignment problem, the solution to it, we have to be able to put on paper or in in in a program human values. How difficult do you think that is? [00:45:30] Very. But it's so important we really have to give it our best, and it's difficult for two separate reasons. There's the technical value alignment problem. I'm figuring out just how to make. Machines understand Marigold's adopt them and retain them. And then there is the separate part about the philosophical part, whose values anyway. And since it's not like we have any great consensus on this planet, on values, how what mechanism should we create then to aggregate and decide, OK, what's a good compromise? [00:46:03] Right at that second discussion can't just be left. The tech nerds like myself, right? That's right. And we refuse to talk about it. [00:46:12] And then I get Bill, who is going to be actually making the decision about whose vote it's going to be, a bunch of dudes and some tech company. And are they necessarily so representative of all of humankind that we want to trust and trust the government? Are they even uniquely qualified to speak to future human happiness just because they're good at programming? You know, I'd much rather have this be a really inclusive conversation. But do you think it's possible? [00:46:39] Sort of. So you create a beautiful vision that includes sort of the diversity, cultural diversity and various perspectives on discussing rights, freedoms, human dignity. But how hard is it to come to that consensus, do you think? It's certainly a really important thing that we should all try to do. But do you think it's feasible? I think. There's no better way to guarantee failure than to try to refuse to talk about it or refuse to try. [00:47:10] And I also think it's a really bad strategy to say, OK, let's first have a discussion for a long time, and then once we reach a complete consensus, then we'll try to load it into the machine. No, we shouldn't let perfect be the enemy of good instead. We should start with the kindergarten ethics, pretty much everybody agrees on and put that into machines. Now, we're not doing that even look at the you know, anyone who builds a passenger aircraft. [00:47:38] Wants it to never under any circumstances fly into a building or a right. Yet the September 11 hijackers were able to do that. And even more embarrassingly, you know, Andreas Lubitz, this depressed Germanwings pilot, when he flew his passenger jet into the Alps, killing over a hundred people, he just told the autopilot to do it. [00:47:58] He told the freaking computer to change the altitude to 100 meters. And even though it had the GPS maps, everything, the computer was like, OK, now. So we should take those very basic values. Will, where the problem is not that we don't agree that the problem is that we've been too lazy to try to put it into our machines and make sure. But from now on, our airplanes will just which all have computers in them. But just just refuse to do something like that, go into safe mode, maybe lock the cockpit door, go to the nearest airport. [00:48:31] And and there's so much other technology in our world as well now where it's really coming quite timely to put in some sort of very basic values like this. [00:48:42] Even in cars, we have had enough vehicle terrorism attacks by now. If you have driven trucks and vans into pedestrians, that is not at all a crazy idea to just have that hard wired into the car because, yeah, there are a lot of there's always going to be people who for some reason want to harm others. But most of those people don't have the technical expertise to figure out how to work around something like that. So if the car just won't do it. [00:49:09] It helps, let's start there, so there's a lot of that's that's a great point. So not not chasing perfect. There's a lot of things that a lot that most of the world agrees on. Yeah. [00:49:19] Start there and start there. And then once we start there, we'll also get into the habit of having these kind of conversations about, OK, what else should we put in here and then have these discussions? This should be a gradual process then. Great. [00:49:32] So but that also means describing these things and describing it to a machine. So one thing we had a few conversations with Stephen Wolfram. I'm not sure if you're familiar with Stephen, but I know him quite well. So he has you know, he works with a bunch of things, but, you know, cellular automata, the simple computable. Things, these competition systems, and you kind of mention that, you know, we probably have already within these systems already something that's ajai meaning like we just don't know it because we can't talk to it. [00:50:08] So if you give me this chance to try to try to least form a question out of this is I think it's an interesting idea to think that we can have intelligent systems, but we don't know how to describe something to them and they can't communicate with us. I know you're doing a little bit work and inexplainable. I trying to get you to explain it. So what are your thoughts of natural language processing or some kind of other communication? How how does the A.I. explain something to us? [00:50:38] How do we explain something to it, to machines or you think of it differently? So there are two separate. Parts to your question there. One of them has to do with communication, which is super interesting. Don't get that. And the other is whether we already have ajai, but we just haven't noticed it. [00:50:57] Right. There, I beg to differ. I don't think there's anything on any cellular automaton or anything or the Internet itself or whatever that has. Artificial general intelligence and that it didn't really do exactly everything we humans can do better. I think that if that happens, when that happens, we will very soon notice. We'll probably notice even before and if because in a very, very big way. [00:51:25] But for the second part, though, it can I just say so the because you have this beautiful way of formulating consciousness as a as a you know, as information processing. [00:51:38] And you can think of intelligence and information processing and as you can think of the entire universe as these particles and these systems roaming around that have this information processing power, you don't you don't think there is something with the power to process information in the way that we human beings do that's out there that. That needs to be sort of connected to it seems a little bit philosophical, perhaps, but there's something compelling to the idea that the power is already there, which is the focus should be more on the and being able to communicate with it. [00:52:15] Well, I agree that the. And in a certain sense, the hardware processing power is already out there because our universe itself. You can think of it as being a computer already. It's constantly computing what water waves, how it evolved, the water waves and the river Charles and how to move the air molecules around the floor. [00:52:36] It is pointed out, my colleague here, that you can even in a very rigorous way, think of our entire universe as being a quantum computer. It's pretty clear that our universe supports this amazing processing power because you can even within this physics computer that we live in. Right. We can even build actually laptops and stuff. So clearly the power is there. It's just that most of the compute power that nature has, it's, in my opinion, kind of wasting on boring stuff like simulating yet another ocean wave somewhere where no one is even looking. [00:53:05] Right. So in a sense, what life does what we are doing when we build computers is where we channeling all this compute that nature is doing anyway and doing things that are more interesting than just yet another ocean wave and do something cool here. [00:53:22] So the right hardware power is there for sure. But and then even just like computing, what's going to happen for the next five seconds, this portable, you know, takes in a ridiculous amount of compute. If you do it on a human computer. Now, this water bottle does did it. But that does not mean that this water bottle has ajai. And because ajai means it should also be able to like have written my book, done this interview. [00:53:47] Yes. And I don't think it's just a communication problem. I don't think it can do it. [00:53:53] And other Buddhists say when they watch the water and that there is some beauty, that there is some depth and the nature that they can communicate with communication is also very important because I mean, look, part of my job is being a teacher and I know some very intelligent. [00:54:13] Professor, even who just. I have a very hard time communicating. They come up with all the brilliant ideas, but but to communicate with somebody else, you have to also be able to stimulate their own mind. Yes, empathy build well enough. And that model of their mind that you can say things that they will understand. And that's quite difficult. And that's why today it's so frustrating. If you have a computer that makes some cancer diagnosis and you ask it, well, why are you saying I should have a surgery if and if I want to reply? [00:54:45] I was trained on five terabytes of data and this is my. Diagnosis, boop, boop, beep, beep, yeah, it doesn't really instill a lot of confidence, right. All right. So I think we have a lot of work to do on on communication there. [00:55:02] So what kind of what kind of I think you're doing a little bit work inexplainable out. What do you think are the most promising avenues? Is it mostly about sort of the Aleksa problem of natural language processing, of being able to actually use human interpretable methods of communication? So being able to talk to your system and talk back to you? Or is there some more fundamental problems to be solved? [00:55:26] I think it's all of the above human. The natural language processing is obviously important, but there are also more than fundamental problems, like if you if you take. You play chess Russian, I have to articulate that, but at least my knees low. When did you learn Russian? What happened after the fact? You got yourself Russian to tell what you built up. [00:55:55] Wow. But I would mean languages, you know. Wow, that's really impressive. I know my wife has some contact, but my point was, if you play chess, they have you looked at the Alpha zero games that the actual game is now taking out. [00:56:11] Some of them are just mind blowing, really beautiful and. If you ask how did it do that, you got that talk to them as a service, I and others from the mine will ultimately be able to give you as big tables of numbers, matrices that define the neural network. And you can stare at these people's numbers, tell your face, turn blue, and you're not going to understand much about why it made that move. And even if you have a natural language processing, they can tell you in human language about, oh, five, seven points to eight, it's still not going to really help. [00:56:51] So they think think there's a whole spectrum of a fun challenge. They're involved and taking it computation that does intelligent things and transforming into something equally. Chiton, good, equally intelligent, but it's more understandable, and I think that's really valuable because I think. As we put machines in charge of ever more infrastructure in our world, the power grid, the trading on the stock market, weapons systems and so on, it's absolutely crucial that we can trust these guys to do all we want. [00:57:27] And trust really comes from understanding, right. In a very fundamental way. And that's why I'm that's why I'm working on this, because I think the more if we're going to have some hope of ensuring that machines have adopted our goals and that they're going to retain them, that kind of trust. I think she needs to be based on things you can actually understand perfectly, will make it preferably to improve theorems on even with a self-driving car ride. If someone just tells you it's been trained on tons of data and never crashed, it's less reassuring than if someone actually has a proof. [00:58:02] Maybe it's a computer verified proof. But still, it said that under no circumstances is this car just going to swerve into oncoming traffic. [00:58:10] And that kind of information helps build trust and build the alignment, the alignment of goals, the least awareness that your goals, your values are aligned. [00:58:20] And I think even in very short term, if you look at her, you know, today, that's absolutely pathetic state of cybersecurity that we have right now. Or is it three? Billion. Yahoo! Accounts, which are packed almost every. Americans credit card and so on. Why is this happening? It's ultimately happening because we have software that nobody fully understood how it worked. That's why the bugs hadn't been found. Right. [00:58:52] And I think I can be used very effectively for offense, for hacking, but it can also be used for defense, hopefully automating verifiability and creating systems that are. Built in different ways, so you can actually prove things about them, right? And it's important. So speaking of software, that nobody understands how it works. Of course, a bunch of people ask by your paper about your thoughts of why does deep and cheap learning works so well. That's the paper. [00:59:23] But what are your thoughts on deep learning is kind of simplified. Models of our own brains have been able to do some successful perception work, pattern recognition work, and now with Alpha Zero and so on, do some some clever things. What are your thoughts about the promise limitations of this piece? Right. I think. There are a number of very important insights and very important lessons we can draw from these kind of successes. One of them is when you look at the human brain, you see it's very complicated, 10 to 11 neurons. [00:59:59] And there are all these different kinds of neurons and yada, yada. And there's been a long debate about whether the fact that we have dozens of different kinds is actually necessary for intelligence. [01:00:09] Which, you know, I think quite convincingly answer that question. No, it's enough to have just one kind if you look under the hood of Alpha Zero with only one kind of one, and it's ridiculously simple, that simple mathematical thing. So it's not the it's just like in physics. It's not if you have a gas with waves in it, it's not the detailed nature of the molecules of matter. [01:00:32] It's the collective behavior somehow. Similarly, it's it's this higher level structure of the network matters, not that you have 20 hours. [01:00:42] I think our brain is such a complicated mess because it wasn't evolved. Just to be intelligent, there was involved to also be self assembling, right and self repairing and evolutionarily attainable inside cultures and so on. [01:01:01] So I think it's pretty. My my hunch is that we're going to understand how to build ajai before we fully understand how our brains work, just like we we understood how to build flying machines long before we were able to build a mechanical bird. Yes. [01:01:16] How you giving the example you're giving that the example of mechanical birds and airplanes and airplanes do a pretty good job of flying without really mimicking bird fly? [01:01:26] And even now, after one hundred is one hundred years later, you see the TED talk with a mechanical bird. You mention it, it's amazing. [01:01:34] But even after that, we still don't fly in mechanical bird because it turned out the way we came up with was simpler. And it's better for our purposes. And I think it might be the same there. That's one lesson. Another lesson. It's more what the what our paper was about. First, I, as a physicist, thought it was fascinating how there's a very close mathematical relationship actually between not artificial neural networks. And a lot of the things that we've studied for in physics go by nerdy names like the renormalization group equation and meconium and yada, yada, yada and. [01:02:08] And when you look a little more closely at this. You have. You at first there was a mole, there's something crazy here that doesn't make sense because. We know that if you even want to build a super simple neural network, you tell that part cat pictures and dog pictures, right. That you can do that very, very well now. [01:02:34] But if you think about it a little bit, you convince yourself it must be impossible, because if I have one megapixel, even if it's just black or white, there's the power. One million possible images is way more than there are atoms in our universe. So in order to. And then for each one of those, I have to assign a number, which is the probability that it's a dog, right. So an arbitrary function of images is a list of. [01:03:02] More numbers than there are atoms in our universe. So clearly, I can't store that under the hood of my GPU or my computer, yet somehow works. [01:03:10] So what does that mean? Well, it means that the out of all of the problems that you could try to solve with the neural network. Almost all of them are impossible to solve with a reasonably sized one. But then what we showed in our paper was, was that the fractures, the kind of problems, the fraction of all the problems that you could possibly pose that that we actually care about, given the laws of physics, it's also an infinitesimally tiny little part. [01:03:42] And amazingly, they're basically the same part. Yeah, it's almost like our world was created for I mean, they kind of come together. Yeah, well, you could say maybe where the world created the world that the world was created for us. But I have a more modest interpretation, which is that instead evolution endowed us. But neural networks precisely for that reason, because this particular architecture, as opposed to the one in your laptop, is very, very well. [01:04:08] Adapted to solving the kind of problems of nature kept presenting our ancestors with, so it makes sense that why do we have a brain in the first place? It's to be able to make predictions about the future and so on. So if we had a sucky system which could never solve, it wouldn't have so. But so this is this is a. I think a very beautiful fact, yeah, we also we also realize that there's the there that we there have been it's been earlier work on why deeper networks are good. [01:04:40] But we were able to show an additional cool factor, which is that even incredibly simple problems like Spotlight give you a thousand numbers and ask you to multiply them together. You know, you can write a few lines of code boom trivial if you just try to do that with a neural network that has only one single hidden layer in it. You can do it. But you're going to need two to the power, a thousand neurons and to multiply a thousand numbers, which is again more neurons than their atoms in our universe. [01:05:12] That's nothing, but if you're allowed if you allow yourself make it a deep network with many layers, you only need four thousand neurons. It's perfectly feasible. So that's really interesting that. Yeah. So on another architecture type, I mean, you mentioned Schrodinger's equation. And what are your thoughts about quantum computing? And the role of this kind of computational unit in creating an intelligence system in some Hollywood movies. That are not mentioned by name because they want to spoil them the way the energy is building a quantum computer. [01:05:52] Yeah, because the word quantum sounds cool in science, right? My first of all, I think we don't need quantum computers to build ajai. I suspect your brain is not. Quantum computer and a new found sense. So you even wrote a paper about that many years ago. I checked it out of the decoherence, so-called decoherence time, how long it takes until the quantum computer inus of what your neurons are doing gets erased. Mm hmm. By just random noise from the environment, and it's about ten to the minus 21 seconds, so as cool as it would be to have a quantum computer in my head, I don't think that fast. [01:06:34] Yeah. On the other hand, there are. [01:06:39] Very cool things you could do with quantum computers. Or I think we'll be able to do soon when we get big bigger ones, that might actually help machine learning do even better than the brain. So. For example. One, this is this is a moon shot, but, hey, you know that. Learning. It's very much the same thing as search, if you have if you're trying to train a neural network to get really learn to do something really well, you have some lost function. [01:07:15] You have some you have a bunch of knobs. You can turn measurement represented by a bunch of numbers and you're trying to tweak them so that it becomes as good as possible at this thing. So if you think of a landscape with some valley. We each dimension of the landscape corresponds to some number you can change, you're trying to find the minimum and it's well known that if you have a very high dimensional landscape, complicated thing, that's super hard to find the minimum like. [01:07:41] Quantum mechanics is amazingly good at this, right? If I want to know what's the lowest energy state this water can possibly have. Incredibly hard to compute, but we can. But nature will happily figure this out for you if you just cool it down, make it very, very cold. If you put a ball somewhere, it will roll down to its minimum and this happens metaphorically at the energy landscape, too, and quantum mechanics even uses some clever tricks which today's machine learning systems don't like. [01:08:12] If you're trying to find the minimum when you get stuck in the local minimum here in quantum mechanics, you can actually tunnel through the barrier and get unstuck again and. And that's really interesting. So I said maybe, for example, will one day use quantum computers that. To help train neural networks better. That's really interesting. OK, so as a component of kind of the learning process, for example. Yeah, let me ask sort of wrapping up here a little bit. [01:08:41] Let me let me return to the questions of our human nature and and love, as I mentioned. So do you think. You mentioned sort of a helper or they could think of also personal robots. Do you think the way we human beings fall in love and get connected to each other is possible to achieve in an AI system and human level AI intelligence system? Do you think we would ever see that kind of connection or, you know, in all this discussion about solving complex goals? [01:09:15] Yeah. As this kind of human social connection, do you think that's one of the goals and the peaks and valleys that with the rising sea levels that we'll be able to achieve? Or do you think that's something that's ultimately or at least in the short term, relative to other goals, is not achievable? I think it's all possible. I mean, in region, there is a there is a very wide range of guesses, as you know, among researchers, when we're going to get ajai. [01:09:43] Some people, you know, like our friend Rodney Brooks, said, it's going to be hundreds and hundreds of years and then there are many others who think it's going to happen much sooner and recent polls. [01:09:54] Maybe half or so researchers think we're going to get ajai within decades. So if that happens, of course, I think these things are all possible, but in terms of whether it will happen. I think we shouldn't spend so much time asking what do we think will happen in the future, as if we are to some sort of pathetic you're passive bystanders, you know, waiting for the future to happen to us. Hey, we are the ones creating this future. [01:10:20] So we should be. Proactive about it and ask yourself what sort of future we would like to have happen. That's right. Right. Make it like that. [01:10:29] Well, would I prefer to some sort of incredibly boring zombie like future where just all these mechanical things happen and there's no passion, no emotion, no experience, maybe even. [01:10:39] No, I would, of course, much rather prefer if if all the things that we find we value the most. About humanity. All right, subjective experience, passion, inspiration, love, you know, if we can create a future when those are those things do exist now, I think ultimately. It's not our universe giving meaning to us, this is giving meaning the universe, and if we build more advanced intelligence, let's make sure we build it in such a way that. [01:11:13] Meaning these. As part of it, a lot of people have seriously studied this problem and think of it from different angles, have trouble and the majority of cases, if they think through that happen, are the ones that are not beneficial to humanity. And so, yeah. So what what are your thoughts? What's and what's what should people you know, I really don't like people to be terrified. He should. What's a way for people to think about it in a way that in a way we can solve it and we can make it better? [01:11:46] Yeah, no, I don't think panicking is going to help in any way. It's not going to increase chances of things going well either. Even if you are in a situation where there is a real threat, does it help if everybody just freaks out? Right? No, of course. Of course not. I think, yeah, there are, of course, ways in which things can go horribly wrong. First of all, it's important when we think about this thing less about the problems and risks, but also remember how huge the upsides can be if we get it right. [01:12:16] Everything everything we love about society and civilization is the product of intelligence, of if we can amplify our intelligence or machine intelligence and not any more to lose our loved one, that what we're told is an incurable disease and things like this, of course, we should aspire to that. [01:12:32] So that can be a motivator. I think reminding ourselves that the reason we try to solve problems is not just because. We're trying to avoid gloom, but because we're trying to do something great. But then in terms of the risks, I think, Jim. The really important question is to ask, what can we do today that will actually help? Yes, I'll come. Good. And dismissing the risk is not one of them. I find it quite funny often when I'm in discussion panels about these things, how the people who work for four companies won't be say, oh, we've got nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about. [01:13:12] We're about. And it's always, oh, it's only academics sometimes expressed concerns. [01:13:17] That's not surprising at all, if you think about it. Upton Sinclair quipped right. That it's hard to make your men believe in something when they think the fans are not believing in it. And frankly, we know a lot of these people in companies that they are just as concerned as anyone else. But if you're the CEO of a company, that's not something you want to go on record saying when you have silly journalists who are going to put a picture of a Terminator robot when they quote you. [01:13:43] So so the issues are real. [01:13:47] And the way the way I think about what the issue is, is basically that the real choice we have is. First of all, are we going to dismiss this, the risks and say, well, you know, let's just go ahead and build a machine that can do everything we can do better and cheaper, let's just make ourselves obsolete as fast as possible. What could possibly go wrong? That's one attitude. The opposite attitude, I think, is to say. [01:14:14] There is incredible potential, you know, let's think about what kind of future we're really, really excited about, what are the shared goals that we can really aspire to, and then let's think really hard about how we can actually get there to start with it. Not don't start thinking about the risks. Start thinking about the goals. Goals. [01:14:34] Yeah. And then when you do that, then you can think about the obstacles you want to avoid. But they often get students coming in right here into my office for career advice. I always ask them this very question, where do you want to be in the future? If all you can say is, well, maybe I'll have cancer, maybe I'll get run over by doctors and obstacles instead of the goal, she's just going to end up a hypochondriac, paranoid. [01:14:55] Whereas if she comes in a fire in her eyes and is like, I want to be there, and then we can talk about the obstacles and see how we can circumvent them. That's, I think, a much, much healthier attitude. And that's really well planned. [01:15:09] And I, I feel it's very challenging to come up with a vision for the future which which we are unequivocally excited about. I'm not just talking now in the vague terms like, yeah, let's cure cancer. Find talking about what kind of society do we want to create? What do we want it to mean to be human in the age of irony, in the age of AGI. So if we can have this conversation. Broad, inclusive conversation and gradually start converging towards some some future with some direction at least, that we want to steer towards right then then we'll be much more motivated to constructively take on the obstacles. [01:15:50] And I think if I ever had that, if you me if I try to wrap this up in a more succinct way, I think. I think we can all agree already now that we should aspire. To build ajai that. Doesn't overpower us, but that empowers us. And think of the many various ways they can do that, whether that's from my side of the world of autonomous vehicles, I am personally actually from the camp that believes this human level intelligence is required to to achieve something like vehicles. [01:16:28] That would actually be something we would enjoy using and being part of. So that's one example. And certainly there's a lot of other types of robots in medicine and so on. So focusing on those and then and then coming up with obstacles, coming up with the ways that that can go wrong and solving those one at a time. [01:16:46] And just because you can build an autonomous vehicle, even if you could build one that would drive this fine without you know, maybe there are some things in life that we would actually want to do ourselves. That's right. [01:16:56] Right. Like, for example, if you think of our society as a whole, there are some things that we find very meaningful to do. And that doesn't mean we have to stop doing them just because machines can do them better. You know, I'm not going to stop playing tennis just the day someone build a tennis robot to beat me. People are still playing chess and even go. Yeah. [01:17:18] And I enlisted in the very near term. Even some people are advocating basic income replace jobs. But if you if the government is going to be willing to just hand out cash to people for doing nothing, then one, you also seriously consider whether the government should also hire a lot more teachers and nurses and the kind of jobs which people often find great fulfillment in doing. [01:17:41] Right. I get very tired of hearing politicians saying, oh, we can't afford hiring more teachers, but we're going to maybe have basic income if we can have more more serious research and thought into what gives meaning to our lives and jobs give so much more than income. [01:17:56] Right. And then think about in the future, what are the role of the. Yeah, one of the roles that we want to. How are people feeling empowered by machines and I think sort of I come from the Russia, from the Soviet Union, and I think for a lot of people in the 20th century, going to the moon, going into space was an inspiring thing. I feel like the the the the universe of the mind. So I understand in creating intelligence is that for the 21st century. [01:18:31] So it's really surprising and I've heard you mention this is really surprising to me, both on the research funding side, that it's not funded as greatly as it could be, but most importantly, on the politicians side, that it's not part of the public discourse except in killer robots, Terminator kind of view that people are not yet, I think, perhaps excited by the possible positive future that we can build together. So we should be because politicians usually just focus on the next election cycle. [01:19:00] Right. The single most important thing I feel we humans have learned and the entire history of science is they were the masters of underestimation. We underestimated the size. I've I've I've called again and again realizing that everything we thought existed was just a small part of something grander, right on a solar system, the galaxy, clusters of galaxies, universe. And we now know that we have that the future has so much more potential than our ancestors could ever have dreamt of this cosmos. [01:19:38] Imagine if all of earth. Was completely devoid of life. Except for Cambridge, Massachusetts. Wouldn't it be kind of lame if all we ever aspired to was to stay in Cambridge, Massachusetts forever and then go extinct in one week, even though Earth was going to continue on for longer than that? That sort of attitude I think we have now. On the cosmic scale, we can feel that life can flourish on Earth not for another four years, but for billions of years. [01:20:08] Yes, I can even tell you about how to move it out of harm's way when the sun gets too hot. [01:20:12] And and then we have so much more resources out here, which today maybe there are a lot of other planets with bacteria or a cow like life on them. [01:20:22] But I. Most of this all this opportunity seems, as far as we can tell, to be largely dead like the Sahara Desert, and yet we have the opportunity that the help life flourish around this billions of years. And so, like, let's quit squabbling about. Whether some little border should be drawn, one feels one mile to the left, the right and look up into the sky. You realize, hey, you know, we can do such incredible things. [01:20:51] Yeah. And that's, I think, why it's really exciting that, yeah, you and others are connected with some of the work. Elon Musk is doing because he's literally going out into that space exploring our universe. And it's wonderful. [01:21:04] That is exactly why Elon Musk is so misunderstood. Right. Misconstrue him as some kind of pessimistic doomsayer. The reason he cares so much about safety is because he more than. Almost anyone else appreciates these amazing opportunities they will squander if we wipe out here on Earth and we're not just going to wipe out the next generation, but all generations and this incredible opportunity that's out there and that would be really be a waste. And I. For people who think that we better to do without technology, let me just mention that. [01:21:42] If we don't improve our technology, the question isn't whether humanity is going to go extinct. The question is just whether we're going to get taken out by the next big asteroid or the next supervolcano or something else dumb that we could easily prevent with more tech. Right. And if we want life to flourish throughout the cosmos, A.I. is the key to it. As I mentioned in a lot of detail in my book right there, even many of the most inspired sci fi writers I feel have totally underestimated the opportunities. [01:22:17] For space travel, especially to other galaxies, because they weren't thinking about the possibility of ajai, which just makes it so much easier, right? Yeah, so that goes to hear a view of ajai that enables our progress, that enables a better life. [01:22:33] So that's a beautiful that's a beautiful way to put it and something to strive for. So, Max, thank you so much. Thank you for your time. Today has been awesome. [01:22:41] Thank you so much. Bowl. Sorry.

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