特別節目·中文精讀

凱爾·沃格特:Cruise 自動駕駛

Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation

Cruise 創始人講述自動駕駛創業歷程、技術路線選擇與城市道路落地的挑戰。

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2013 年,Kyle Vogt 決定做自動駕駛的時候,Google 的無人車專案已經跑了四年多,投入的資金和人才密度是任何一家創業公司都複製不了的量級,而且還沒做出來。

他沒打算正面硬剛。

他的策略是先做一個小產品:給普通人的車加裝高速公路自動駕駛套件,把賣產品賺到的錢全部投進真正的無人駕駛研發。用一個小問題養一個大問題。

這套東西他做出來了,原型能跑,使用者調研也做了。然後他把它整個放棄,一分錢沒賣。

放棄的理由聽上去都很無聊:安全責任歸誰,基礎車輛的 ABS 介入時算誰的錯,廠商在後臺悄悄推送了軟體更新導致行為不一致。還有一個最樸素的商業事實,改裝件要支援的車型有三五十款,每一款都是需要單獨維護的小蝴蝶。

這場對話發生在 2019 年初。Kyle Vogt 當時是 Cruise 的總裁兼 CTO,公司被通用汽車以 10 億美元收購三年多。他之前參與創辦的 Twitch,賣價也是 10 億美元。兩次十億美元,兩條完全不同的路。

四十美元的絞盤電機,跑到三倍電壓

故事的起點在堪薩斯城。當地唯一有老師願意贊助 FIRST 機器人隊的學校,是肖尼米申北高中,不是他就讀的那所。他跑去加入了。

再往前推,是樂高。他很小時候就想要帶電機的那種樂高,後來 Mindstorms 出來,第一次可以用程式控制積木搭出來的東西。他說從那之後,事情就滾雪球了。

真正把他拽進去的是電視。Comedy Central 播的 BattleBots,兩個兩百磅重的鋼鐵機器在一個透明箱子裡互相拆,他看完的反應是"這是世界上最酷的東西,我要參與"。問題是他完全不知道怎麼造。

於是他做了那個年代的孩子會做的事:把網上能找到的論壇翻了個底朝天。所有參賽者都在那些論壇裡活動,記錄自己的建造進度,討論材料、電機、傳動。他估計自己讀了幾萬條帖子,最後拼出了一個大概的做法,十三四歲時真的造了一臺去參賽。第一輪全輸。

贏得比賽不重要,重要的是他從中摸到了東西。他們買的電機是四十美元的直流電機,從皮卡前部的絞盤上拆下來的那種。裝上之後,他們把電壓加到額定值的兩倍甚至三倍。

電機立刻開始過熱,但在那兩分鐘的比賽裡,你能從它身上榨出明顯更高的功率,然後再讓它燒掉。(Kyle Vogt)

電池組是同樣的思路,系統裡每一種材料都是同樣的思路。他說,看著東西在哪裡壞掉,本身就很有意思。

這句話後來變成了他做自動駕駛的方法論核心。整場訪談裡他反覆回到同一個動作:找到邊界,推過去,看系統怎麼反應。BattleBots 的兩分鐘是邊界,自動駕駛裡的邊緣情況也是邊界。

他做的第一臺是楔形機器人,外觀很無聊,但極其有效,車頭前緣鏟到對手底下,對方會像門擋一樣翻過去。楔形前面還裝了一根氣動的不鏽鋼拋光尖刺,能彈出八英寸。他自己承認這玩意兒完全沒用,只是為了好看。第二臺是十八個月後做的,鈦合金斧頭,尖端是硬化鋼,液壓缸驅動,用液態二氧化碳加壓,這套方案本身又帶來一堆新麻煩。

十小時橫穿堪薩斯西部,一個初中生想明白了自動駕駛

真正的轉折點發生在一次開車路上,和任何一場比賽都無關。

他從堪薩斯開車去拉斯維加斯參加 BattleBots 比賽,單程十個小時。那會兒他剛拿到學車許可。堪薩斯西部的高速公路是一條筆直的線,兩邊什麼都沒有。

無聊到讓人麻木。我當時程式設計水平很一般,但我記得我在想,這件事計算機可以做啊。拍一張路面的照片,找出黃色的車道線,然後轉方向盤。(Kyle Vogt)

他後來才知道,這件事七十年代、八十年代就有人做過了。但他當時不知道,也不影響他想做。這趟旅行結束後,他從無線電遙控的格鬥機器轉向了自主車輛,先做小型的電動車,一步步做到今天這個規模。

被問到那個年代怎麼看人工智慧,他的回答很實在:在深度神經網路和卷積網路普及之前,整個領域是啟發式的天下,是老派的影象處理。從一張路面照片裡提取黃色車道線,恰好是這類方法擅長的問題。對黃色做閾值,用霍夫變換擬合直線,再往下推。

他寫第一版自動駕駛程式用的是一臺 233 MHz 的奔騰電腦,語言是 BASIC,解釋型,慢得離譜。他說那時候完全沒有算力跑今天這種深網。他反過來好奇,現在十三歲的孩子在車庫裡用神經網路嗎,那也太酷了。

MIT 的轉向電機燒了,那次失敗埋了十幾年的伏筆

2004 年他進 MIT 讀本科,正好趕上第一屆 DARPA 大挑戰賽。

一開始沒有官方支援,也沒有教授牽頭。一群本科生自己湊起來,包括他在內,四處拉贊助,要來了一輛車和一堆感測器,想把東西搭起來。隊伍裡大部分是大一大二的學生,對手是別的學校由博士後和教授帶的隊。他自己形容這算不上公平的較量。

他們的車做了線控驅動,控制邏輯非常基礎。到了預選賽那天,他們買的那唯一一個轉向電機燒了。車原地趴窩,方向盤都打不動,比賽沒走多遠。

這個細節在訪談裡被 Lex 拎出來問了一句,Kyle 的回答是:如果當時有個懂電機的人負責硬體,他們就能專心寫軟體了。

十幾年後,他和通用汽車合作的理由幾乎是同一句話的放大版。他要找的,就是一個已經花了一百年把硬體這件事做明白的夥伴,好讓自己把精力全放在軟體上。

他對 DARPA 那屆比賽的公共價值評價很高,說那一百萬美元的獎金池是他見過的、每一美元納稅人錢用得最有效率的事情之一。在他看來,那個小小的計劃就是整波自動駕駛浪潮的催化劑和引爆點。

Lex 接著問,那 DARPA 今天還能不能再搞一個挑戰賽,專門針對行人、城市複雜場景這些新問題。Kyle 的回答是:大概沒必要了。當年 DARPA 花很少的錢把飛輪轉起來,這件事已經做完了。今天這個領域在大公司眼裡有明確的商業價值,投進來的錢、走進課堂學這些技能的人,比當年高出幾個數量級。他的原話是,他們可以宣佈任務完成,然後去做下一個需要幫助的技術領域。

一張單程票,和"我總覺得能按撤銷鍵"

大三那年他離開了 MIT。

起因是兩個耶魯畢業的人在做新公司。他 Google 了一下,發現這兩人之前創辦過一家公司,在 eBay 上賣了大概二十五萬美元。他的判斷是:這倆是搖滾明星創業者,賣過公司,應該在開法拉利,跟著他們能學到東西。

他買了張單程票飛到加州,本來只打算待 MIT 的一月獨立活動期,一個月。

然後我就基本沒回去過。我們玩得太開心了,感覺在造東西,在創造東西,而且會很有意思。我一頭扎進去,徹底上鉤了。(Kyle Vogt)

那家公司叫 Justin.tv,最初是一個叫 Justin 的傢伙的真人秀,後來變成直播平臺,再後來變成今天的 Twitch。

Lex 追問他當時怎麼敢做這個決定。他的答案很樸素:先試一個月,風險很低;然後也許休一個學期,MIT 對這種事很寬容,你隨時可以回去;這樣迴圈了兩三次,他才徹底放棄。他的說法是,我總覺得可以按撤銷鍵。

他也承認這在當時不算主流選擇。那幾年 MIT 學生畢業後的主流去向是波士頓或紐約的金融和諮詢,去加州創業的人很少。今天這個比例大概反過來了,他說這是時代變化的標誌。

2007 年 3 月 18 日凌晨,四個手機資料卡撐起一場直播

Justin.tv 上線前夜出了名場面。TechCrunch 提前幾個小時把訊息放了出去,網站當時還沒準備好。

那晚他和 Emmett Shear 通宵改程式碼。他當時大概二十一歲,程式設計經驗不算豐富。

系統的複雜度值得說一下。為了讓 Justin 揹著攝像頭揹包在舊金山任何地方走動都能直播,而且那還是 iPhone 出現之前,他拼了一套方案:同時用三到四個手機資料調變解調器,把影片流拆開"噴灑"到這幾條鏈路上,在另一端把所有資料包抓回來重新組裝。

這在今天聽起來像教科書裡的多路徑傳輸,但當時是在不可靠的蜂窩網路上手工實現的,上面還疊了一整套協議,負責重排、時間緩衝、糾錯。上線前一晚的實際表現是:每隔五到十分鐘,畫面就變成雪花,音訊同時崩掉,發出刺耳的嘯叫。觀眾看著非常勸退。

公司一共四個人,真正寫程式碼的只有兩個。Emmett 負責網站和聊天系統,他一個人負責影片裝置和影片伺服器的全部軟體。

有點孤獨。這整塊是我的責任,只能我自己想明白。(Kyle Vogt)

他把那一晚稱為性格形成時刻之一。人在那種極端壓力下,有時會做出自己一生中最好、最有意思的工作。雖然當時很糟,他現在回想起來是帶著感情的。

給下一家公司定的三條硬標準

Twitch 成功後,他問了自己一個問題:練出這些工程能力,除了自己爽,到底還有什麼意義。他想做點更能解決存在感焦慮的事。

於是他列了一張清單。清單的前提是一條他自己說的、很多人不會認真對待的經驗:Twitch 花了八年才成功,所以下一件事,他必須願意投十年。

用十年的尺度去想,選什麼做這件事的標準會自動抬高。他定了三條:

  • 技術本身必須決定產品的成敗,得是真正硬核的技術問題,因為這才讓他有動力;
  • 必須對社會有直接、正面的影響,比如醫療、自動駕駛這種能救命的;
  • 必須是一門大生意,因為影響只有規模化才算數。

他琢磨了一陣,甚至試著寫過一個 Gmail 的克隆版,也看過別的方向。然後靈光一閃:自動駕駛。那是他大學裡做過的最有意思的事。他算了算時間,距離當年那臺 233 MHz 的奔騰電腦已經過去十年,也許時機到了。

他環顧四周,當時這個領域裡除了 Google 的自動駕駛專案,幾乎沒有別人。他給這件事的定位是:我們這代人最偉大的應用 AI 問題。

策略也很清楚:Google 投了那麼多錢、那麼多資源,都還沒做出完全無人駕駛。那他憑什麼從零走到能真正解決問題的規模?答案是先做一個簡單、能創造價值、能賺錢的產品,也就是高速公路自動駕駛,用後裝方式直接賣給消費者,然後把所有收入投回無人駕駛研發。

這個計劃裡唯一變了的,是他們從來沒真正釋出過第一個產品。高速公路自動駕駛做了一年,原型跑通了,投資人給的錢和訊號也夠,然後他們把它整個扔掉,說現在就是做無人駕駛的時候,全力去做。

放棄已經做出來的產品,理由是一張無限長的清單

Lex 問後裝這條路以後還有沒有可能。他的回答是完全沒有,他已經徹底轉過彎來了。

他給出的理由值得逐條看,因為每一條都是真實工程裡會咬人的東西:

  • 後裝系統要控制方向盤和車輛的其他控制輸入,這屬於安全關鍵功能,本來就很難做到位;
  • 就算做到了,責任歸屬會變得極其複雜,基礎車輛出故障導致你的系統失效,算誰的;
  • 車輛的 ABS 或其他系統介入時,你的系統和它怎麼協同;
  • 車廠會在後臺悄悄更新軟體,同一款車不同版本的行為不一樣,而你並不知道;

他說這類問題的長尾幾乎沒有盡頭,做安全關鍵產品的話,這些都接受不了。他補了一句很誠實的話:我當時並不知道這些,所以我們還是試了。

商業模型上的坑更直接。他們拿奧迪 S4 做第一個改裝物件,原本假設只要支援三款車就能覆蓋舊金山八成市場,畢竟大家開的不就是寶馬、思域那幾款嗎。結果問卷一做,發現車型分佈極其分散,要賣出像樣的量,得支援二十到五十款,每一款都要單獨的硬體和整合,都要花時間維護。這門生意不好做。

底特律和矽谷,兩套完全不同的獎勵機制

收購之後最難的其實不是技術,是人。

他先講了一句很重要的話:通用汽車有數萬名聰明、有動力、想參與未來的人,公司內部的態度是擁抱這場變化,而不是害怕它。他說這要歸功於通用的管理層,這種態度一直傳導到總裝廠裡擰螺絲的人。這一點讓後面的磨合容易了很多,因為兩邊至少共享一套價值觀:我們都希望這件事成,因為我們認為它重要、它是未來。

然後他講了衝突在哪。

在車廠,讓你升職的東西、整套獎勵系統,是遵循流程,按時按預算交付專案。所以冒險在很多情況下是被勸阻的,因為專案一旦延期,或者工廠停產一天,你很快就能數出燒掉了多少百萬美元。而在矽谷的公司裡,在 Cruise,在我們當時的做法裡,獎勵結構是關於用任何方式解決這些複雜問題,是關於提出瘋狂的想法,其中 90% 都不會成。(Kyle Vogt)

一邊是持續改進和實驗,另一邊是所有事情必須提前嚴格定義,好讓進度絕不滑、預算絕不超。把這兩套東西焊在一起,他形容是相當大的挑戰。

三年多過去,他的判斷變了。當初為了搞清楚怎麼合作、誰該做什麼、怎麼在差異巨大的兩套工程體系之間搭橋所做的投入,現在成了他們最大的資產之一。但有一段時間,通用和 Cruise 雙方都在學習曲線上爬得很陡。

Lex 在這裡插了一個類比,說他見過很多律師跟他講,自己工作裡的大部分環節都可以自動化,但整個法律基礎設施建立在紙質材料上,動不了。Kyle 接了半句"那感覺不太好",Lex 接著說,其實也不是感覺的問題,是沒有路徑。一個行業的自動化難度,往往不取決於技術,取決於它過去一百年的組織方式。汽車行業的好處是,它最終就是軟體問題,所以答案是把軟體工程師招進來,用軟體的方式思考。

Lex 還調侃了一句,矽谷大概從來沒有人按時交付過。Kyle 說這可能是真的。

總裝廠裡那種規模,是矽谷最容易低估的東西

他專門花了一段話糾正矽谷的傲慢。

在矽谷很容易把造車這件事劃掉,理由是這個國家已經造了一百多年,看起來是個已解決的問題。他說,已解決不等於簡單。很容易犯的錯誤是:我們是矽谷工程師,我們能解決任何問題,造車早有人幹過了,所以它不算真正的工程挑戰。

他親眼見過總裝廠的規模、量級和工業化程度之後,態度完全變了。那是巨量的工作,而他很慶幸自己不需要重新發明它。

回到那句 DARPA 時代的遺憾。部署自動駕駛車隊這件事,問題的表面積實在太大,所以他們在不斷尋找"能少做一點"的辦法,好把精力集中在真正重要的部分。如果連造車、組裝、驗證都要自己在內部從零搭起來,這個問題會變得無法處理。

這門生意的賬,只有四個變數

Lex 問的是最直接的問題:自動駕駛裡最大的賺錢機會在哪。

Kyle 的回答像一份財務模型。決定無人車隊經濟性的變數就那麼幾個:

  • 造車本身的成本,包括所有感測器加上整車和其他部件;
  • 車輛的壽命,跑十萬英里就散架,和跑兩百萬英里,完全是兩筆賬;
  • 利用率,一旦車造出來,你希望它一天裡儘可能多的小時在運營、在產生收入,這跟航空公司算飛機的賬是一個邏輯;
  • 收入的來源,也就是怎麼把車隊變成錢。

收入端最明顯的是網約車,需求已經被驗證過,市場現成,可以直接切進去。他認為無人的車相比今天的網約車有實打實的好處:隱私、一致性,以及他希望是顯著更高的安全性。但這也是個擁擠的市場。

過去六到十二個月裡另一個熱點是配送,包裹、外賣、生鮮。他的看法是,一旦有了無人車隊這個核心能力,上面能長出來的生意有很多種。

但在你真正擁有一支能力足夠強、跟人一樣好甚至更好的無人車隊之前,變現的機會是零。整個行業現在都卡在這個等待的狀態裡。(Kyle Vogt)

駕駛風格可以調,安全餘量不能調

Lex 問了一個很有意思的產品問題:坐網約車的時候,你沒法選擇司機的性格,那無人車能不能讓你選,比如激進一點還是保守一點。

Kyle 劃了一條清晰的線。在合理範圍內可以,但他們極不可能開放任何一個能顯著提高安全風險的旋鈕,那件事他們不願意幹。放鬆一點舒適性約束這類調整是合理的,也能做。他把這些都歸為"核心問題解決、車隊跑起來之後的美好最佳化"。

然後他給了一個反常識的觀察。人的直覺是,綠燈一亮就一腳油門衝出去,能更快到達。實際影響非常小。

你感覺自己更快了。無人車就算綠燈時不把油門踩到底,一段十五分鐘的路程,跟你開得很兇相比,也就差三十秒以內。這裡有一種自我欺騙,覺得我開車兇一點就能早點到。(Kyle Vogt)

Lex 的回應把話題推到了心理層面。他說自己研究的東西里,這一點特別有意思:快不快其實不重要,重要的是情緒釋放。有人說過,坐在車裡就像現實版的當噴子,你有一層物理和心理的保護殼,可以對著世界吼,把火發出去。如果換成無人車,這個出口得另外找。

Kyle 順著講了一個他很喜歡的對比。他讀到的資料是,美國人平均每天在社交媒體上花一個多小時,盯著 Facebook 看。那是 3600 秒,一千秒都拿不回來,而且大機率沒什麼產出。可如果路上有另一輛車,不管是人開的還是機器開的,只要耽誤他們三秒鐘,喇叭就按上了。三秒是一千分之一。

他接著問了一個開放的問題:如果所有人都在無人車裡,他們還會注意到那三秒鐘嗎?那時候他們在做別的事,看書、工作、聊天。答案未知,但值得看。

他還給了個不錯的說法:自動駕駛大規模鋪開之後,全社會的平均血壓大概能降幾個點,少了那些路怒和緊張,這是正外部性。

真正難的地方沒有名字,是一千件小事

回到技術。Lex 問舊金山這麼難的城市裡,最硬的骨頭是哪一塊,行人博弈、感知的邊緣情況、規劃、機械工程,還是資料。

Kyle 說他很難回答,因為他們專注做無人駕駛和配套技術已經四年半了。而在一兩年的時候,他就覺得功能上已經齊了。需要左轉,能做;需要繞過雙排停的車進入對向車道,能做;需要穿過施工區,能做。腳手架上很早就在了。

難的地方在於,他們對著的標準是人類駕駛,而這個標準相當高。

人類非常擅長處理邊緣情況和意料之外的場景,計算機正好相反。所以要超過人類設定的這條基線,這才是挑戰。(Kyle Vogt)

於是工作變成了一個迴圈:找出最讓人不舒服、最可能引發安全問題的場景,歸類,改造系統的某一部分,做一點增量改進,然後重複,重複,再重複。他們看到系統的整體表現在穩定上升。

他特意強調,沒有某一個單獨的問題。是幾千個小問題,是打磨功能的細節,是確保它能處理某類情況的每一個版本、每一種排列組合,辦法是加更多的深度學習模組,或者增加測試覆蓋和新場景,然後磨。

我們現在處在開發裡最不性感的階段,就是做從原型到量產真正需要的那部分工程工作。(Kyle Vogt)

Lex 的總結是"把磨這件事規模化"。這個說法很準。自動駕駛的競爭,很大程度上是把邊緣情況的收集、復現、修復、驗證這條流水線做得有多快多穩。

Kyle 補了一個更長的時間尺度。他認為這個磨的過程永遠不會停。會有一個時刻,你越過了人類表現的閾值,變成超人水平。但沒有任何第一性原理的理由說,自動駕駛的能力會在接近人類的地方見頂。沒有理由它不能好二十倍,不管是開得更好、更安全、更舒適,給足時間,好一千倍也可以。他說他們打算一直追下去。

換個問法:什麼會阻止你造出幾十萬輛車

Lex 讓他預測,什麼時候路上會有幾十萬輛完全無人駕駛的車在跑,還給了兩個參照系:Rodney Brooks 說到 2050 年之後,Elon Musk 說兩年前就該有了。

Kyle 先說了句實話:他希望兩年前就有,但沒有。

然後他把問題翻了過來。與其問什麼時候能到,不如問什麼會阻止你到達。

他的推演是這樣的。目前業界的共識做法是先從容易的環境起步,比如天氣好的、以晴天為主的地區,然後逐步增加能力。那麼在第一階段,能部署的城市數量會被你設定的運營域卡住上限。隨著這些限制一個個消失,比如系統能在暴雨和大雪裡安全地開得很好,可進入的城市市場大概會擴大兩到三倍。

產能倒不成問題。他說得很直接:今天如果他們想,就能造出那麼多臺無人車。但造出來也用不上,因為會在最初想運營的那些城市裡把需求打飽和。

所以真正的問題是那些限制什麼時候消失。他的估計是不到五年。

兩次十億美元之後,他認為創業失敗的真正原因

Lex 提到他創辦的兩家公司各賣了十億美元,問他創業需要什麼。

他先承認這裡有倖存者偏差,然後找了三條共性。

第一條是真正的熱情,而且是對核心技術本身的熱情。他會躺在床上想這些技術問題怎麼解。這點在創業裡之所以關鍵,是因為業務的起伏非常劇烈:今天覺得站在世界之巔無人可擋,明天覺得全完了,要倒閉了。有一個你即使不給錢也願意做的熱愛墊在下面,才扛得住那些日子。

第二條是人對。他說自己一直有很好的合夥人,邏輯清晰,不斷推自己的極限,正直程度很高。現在的搭檔是 Dan Kan,Justin.tv 和 Twitch 時期是 Dan 的兄弟和另外幾個人。

第三條是堅持。他展開講了這層意思:堅持包括對你最初那個想法的信念,也包括願意去做那些不性感的活,比如財務、HR、運營,這些你不感興趣但必須有人乾的事。只要你在朝著北極星磨,每天有進展,最後似乎總會落到一個不錯的位置。

能拖慢你的只有兩件事,錢燒完了,或者被競爭對手打垮。但我認為大多數時候,是創始人自己放棄,或者自己把東西搞壞了,很少是被對手打敗,也很少是真的沒錢了。(Kyle Vogt)

Lex 用一句話收束:只要你永不退出,最終總會到達。Kyle 說這個版本比他的簡潔多了,而且更好。

Y Combinator 去了兩次,圖的是那 1% 的同伴

他兩次走 YC。Lex 問早期最好的路徑是什麼,獨立開發還是找合夥人、自籌還是融資、YC 還是 VC。

他的前提是:沒有放之四海而皆準的答案。但如果你的野心是想看看一件事能做大到什麼程度,或者快速擴張、吃下一個市場,那走風險投資這條路大概是對的,這樣資本不會成為你的主要約束。

他喜歡 YC,跟課程關係不大,跟環境關係很大。

它把你放進一個競爭環境裡,周圍是同輩中最好的那 1%,全都高度自驅、處在同一個階段。這種環境會催生成功。身邊都是極聰明、極努力的人,你會被逼著想去模仿他們,或者打敗他們。(Kyle Vogt)

第二次去的時候他已經成功過一次,自認為自驅力夠了。他的判斷是:這件事會很難,能用上的幫助都要用,把自己放進其他創業者中間,哪怕只是讓自己多使一點勁、多推一步,這筆賬就划算。他說這就是他第二次去的原因。

他唯一接近後悔的事,是多幹了兩年

Lex 問如果重來會改什麼。他說自己犯過的錯很多,幾乎每一種能搞砸的方式他都至少搞砸過一次,但他不後悔。回頭看,即使結果不好,也總能從中拿走一些新東西。

唯一接近後悔的,是 Justin.tv 後期那段時間。

公司做了七年,方向轉向 Twitch,轉向影片遊戲。他自己不玩影片遊戲,也幾乎不用 Twitch。他還在負責核心技術,但心已經不在了,因為他們正在建立的那個業務,他個人沒有熱情。

Lex 替他把話說完整:沒達到他給自己定的那個存在性影響的門檻。

我大概在那上面多花了一兩年。早點去做別的事會更好,因為那兩年裡,從哲學或者存在的層面講,我總覺得缺了點什麼。如果我能回去告訴當時的自己,我就說這句話:你現在從工作裡得不到任何個人的意義,你得想辦法改變這件事。(Kyle Vogt)

他說這句話現在變成了他招人時的說辭:你來 Cruise,就有了。

Lex 給了一個溫柔的反駁:也許正是那兩年的存在性焦慮,成了後來點燃 Cruise 的那把火,這事說不準。Kyle 說,理論不錯。

2019 年要跨過的那道線

最後一個是關於 2019 年的問題。他的回答只有一件事:從原型到量產。

具體到這一年他們要做的,是讓軟體的效能在某種程度上越過超人類的門檻,同時把其他幾千個小積木擺到位,好釋出第一個商業產品。

今年是我們試著跨過那道門檻的一年。活很多,很聰明的人已經在做了,接下來全看我們自己。(Kyle Vogt)

Lex 提到 Charlie Miller 和 Chris Valasek 這些他打過交道的人也在 Cruise,說團隊看起來很強。

整場對話下來,最有價值的部分落在 Kyle 描述自己決策方式的幾個瞬間,而不在那些關於未來的預測。放棄已經做出來的後裝產品,理由是一張長到數不清的責任清單。離開 MIT 時想著隨時可以按撤銷鍵。判斷一件值得做十年的事,用的是三條几乎可以當檢查表的標準。把最難的技術問題拆成幾千個不性感的小問題,然後磨。

這些道理都不新鮮,但他是先做了兩遍才說出來的。

還有一點容易被忽略。他對兩次十億美元的描述裡,幾乎沒有運氣這個詞。他談的是十年的承諾、躺在床上的技術問題、合夥人的正直程度、以及在海量的枯燥工作裡每天都推進一點。把這些加在一起,運氣才有地方落腳。

訪談裡被 Lex 追問得最緊的一處,是"如果重來會改什麼"。他給了一個當時聽起來不太像創業建議的答案:那兩年他在一家非常成功的公司裡,做著核心技術,卻得不到任何個人意義。他把這個當成了需要處理的訊號,而不是需要忍受的階段。

四年半做無人駕駛,他說現在處在最不性感的階段。這個說法和那兩年的處境有一層呼應:真正決定結果的那段時間,通常都是沒什麼可講的。差別在於,這一次他心裡清楚為了什麼。

  • 如果你在考慮一個長期的硬技術方向,先用十年這個尺度篩一遍:技術本身是否決定產品成敗、是否對社會有直接正面影響、是否能做成大生意。三條都過不了的方向,熱情撐不過第三個低谷。
  • 做一個能賺錢的小產品去養一個不賺錢的大目標,這個策略成立的前提是想清楚長尾成本。後裝方案的真實成本落在第二十到第五十款車型上,以及車廠在後臺悄悄推送的每一次更新。
  • 進入一個成熟行業時,先分清哪些是已解決,哪些是簡單。造車是一百年的已解決問題,不是簡單問題。把它交給做了一百年的人,自己去做那件只有你能做的事。
  • 評估一項技術進展時,把"什麼時候能成"換成"什麼會阻止它成"。Kyle 用這個問法得到的答案是運營域限制和城市覆蓋上限,比任何時間表都更有資訊量。
  • 如果你在一個專案裡已經得不到任何個人意義,把這當成一個需要處理的訊號,而不是需要忍受的階段。他自己說,那段時間他多耗了一兩年。
  • 如果你在做邊緣情況密集的系統,把磨這件事本身工程化:收集、歸類、復現、修復、驗證,讓這條流水線跑得比別人快。勝負在這裡,不在某個炫技的模組。
  • 選合夥人時把正直程度排在能力前面。Kyle 列的創業三條共性裡,人對那一條講的全是邏輯清晰、不斷推極限、正直程度高,沒提履歷和頭銜。
文稿來自 Lex Fridman 官網公開發布的官方 Transcript(含說話人與時間戳)。
Lex Fridman (00:00:00): The following is a conversation with Kyle Vogt. He’s the president and the CTO of Cruise Automation, leading an effort to solve one of the biggest robotics challenges of our time, vehicle automation. He’s a co-founder of two successful companies, Twitch and Cruise, that have each sold for a billion dollars, and he’s a great example of the innovative spirit that flourishes in Silicon Valley, and now is facing an interesting and exciting challenge of matching that spirit with the mass production and the safety-centric culture of a major automaker like General Motors. This conversation is part of the MIT Artificial General Intelligence series and the Artificial Intelligence podcast. Lex Fridman (00:00:41): If you enjoy it, please subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, or simply connect with me on Twitter, @lexfridman, spelled F-R-I-D. And now, here’s my conversation with Kyle Vogt. You grew up in Kansas, right? Kyle Vogt (00:00:56): Yeah, and I just saw that picture you had hidden over there. Lex Fridman (00:00:58): Oh, boy. Kyle Vogt (00:00:58): So I’m a little bit worried about that now. Lex Fridman (00:01:00): Nervous. So in high school in Kansas City, you joined Shawnee Mission North High School robotics team. Now, that wasn’t your high school. Kyle Vogt (00:01:09): That’s right. That was the only high school in the area that had a teacher who was willing to sponsor a FIRST robotics team. Lex Fridman (00:01:16): I was gonna troll you a little bit, jog your memory- … a little bit about that kid. Kyle Vogt (00:01:20): Yep. I was trying to look super cool and intense- Lex Fridman (00:01:22): You did. Kyle Vogt (00:01:23): … ’cause, you know, this was BattleBots, this is serious business. So we’re standing there with a welded steel frame and looking tough. Lex Fridman (00:01:30): So go back there. What is it that drew you to robotics? Kyle Vogt (00:01:33): Well, I think I’ve been trying to figure this out for a while, but I’ve always liked building things with Legos, and when I was really, really young, I wanted the Legos that had motors and other things. And then, you know, Lego Mindstorms came out, and for the first time you could program Lego contraptions, and I think things just sort of snowballed from that. But I remember seeing, you know, the BattleBots TV show on Comedy Central and thinking, “That is the coolest thing in the world. I wanna be a part of that.” And not knowing a whole lot about how to build these 200-pound fighting robots. Kyle Vogt (00:02:06): So I sort of obsessively pored over the internet forums where all the creators for BattleBots would sort of hang out and talk about, you know, document their build progress and everything. And I think I read, I must have read, like, you know, tens of thousands of forum posts from basically everything that was out there on what these people were doing. And eventually, like, sort of triangulated how to put some of these things together and ended up doing BattleBots, which was, you know, I was like 13 or 14, which was pretty awesome. Lex Fridman (00:02:36): I’m not sure if the show’s still running, but, so BattleBots is… so there’s not an artificial intelligence component. It’s remotely controlled, and it’s almost like a mechanical engineering challenge of … building things that can’t be broken. Kyle Vogt (00:02:49): They’re radio controlled, so- … And I think that they allowed some limited form of autonomy, but, you know, in a two-minute match, you’re, and the way these things ran, you’re really doing yourself a disservice by trying to automate it versus just, you know, do the practical thing, which is drive it yourself. Lex Fridman (00:03:04): And there’s an entertainment aspect. Just going on YouTube, there’s like, some of them wield an ax, some of them… I mean, there’s that fun. So what drew you to that aspect? Was it the mechanical engineering? Was it the dream to create, like, a Frankenstein sentient being? Or was it just, like, the Lego, you like tinkering with stuff? Kyle Vogt (00:03:24): I mean, that was just building something. I think the idea of, you know, this radio-controlled machine that can do various things if it has, like, a weapon or something was pretty interesting. I agree, it doesn’t have the same appeal as, you know, autonomous robots, which I, which I, you know, sort of gravitated towards later on. But it was definitely an engineering challenge because everything you did in that competition was pushing components to their limits. So we would buy, like, these $40 DC motors that came out of a winch, like, on the front of a pickup truck or something, and we’d power the car with those, and we’d run ’em at, like, double or triple their rated voltage. Kyle Vogt (00:04:02): So they immediately start overheating, but for that two-minute match, you can get, you know, a significant increase in the power output of those motors before they burn out. And so you’re doing the same thing for your battery packs, all the materials in the system, and I think there is something intrinsically interesting about just seeing, like, where things break. Lex Fridman (00:04:20): And did you offline see where they break? Did you take it to the testing point? Like, how did you know two minutes? Or was it a reckless, “Let’s just go with it and see”? Kyle Vogt (00:04:29): We weren’t very good at BattleBots. We lost all of our matches the first round. Lex Fridman (00:04:33): What did yours look like? Kyle Vogt (00:04:34): The one I built first, both of them were these wedge-shaped robots, ’cause a wedge, even though it’s sort of boring to look at, is extremely effective. You drive towards another robot, and the front edge of it gets under ’em, and then they sort of flip over, kinda like a doorstopper. And the first one had a pneumatic polished stainless steel spike on the front that would shoot out about eight inches. Lex Fridman (00:04:54): The purpose of which is what? Kyle Vogt (00:04:56): Pretty, pretty ineffective, actually, but it looked cool. And, uh – Lex Fridman (00:04:59): Was it to help with the lift? So it – Kyle Vogt (00:05:01): No, it was just to try to poke holes in the other robot. And then the second time I did it, which was the following, I think maybe 18 months later, we had, well, a titanium ax with a hardened steel tip on it that was powered by a hydraulic cylinder, which we were activating with liquid CO2, which had its own set of problems. Lex Fridman (00:05:23): So great. So that’s kind of on the hardware side. I mean at a certain point, there must have been born a fascination on the software side. So what was the first piece of code you’ve written? Kyle Vogt (00:05:35): Oh, man. So- Lex Fridman (00:05:36): Get to, go back there, see what language was it? What was it? Was it Emacs, Vim? Was it a more respectable modern- … IDE? Do you remember any of this? Kyle Vogt (00:05:45): Yeah. Well, I remember I think maybe when I was in third or fourth grade the school I was at, elementary school, had a bunch of Apple II computers and we’d play games on those. And I remember every once in a while something would crash or it wouldn’t start up correctly, and it would dump you out to what I later learned was, like, sort of a command prompt. And my teacher would come over and type, I actually remember this to this day for some reason, like, PR, number six, or PR pound six, which is peripheral six, which is the disk drive, which would fire up the disk and load the program. And I just remember thinking, “Wow, she’s like a hacker.” Like- Kyle Vogt (00:06:18): … teach me these codes, these error codes, is what I called them at the time. But she had no interest in that, and so it wasn’t until I think about fifth grade that I had a school where you could actually go on these Apple IIs and learn to program. And so it was all in BASIC, you know, where every line, you know, the line numbers are all num- or the… every line is numbered and you have to, like, leave enough space between the numbers so that if you wanna tweak your code, you go back and if the first line was 10 and the second line is 20, now you have to go back and insert 15, and if you need to add code in front of that, you know, 11 or 12, and you hope you don’t run out of line numbers and have to redo the whole thing. Lex Fridman (00:06:51): And there’s go-to statements? Kyle Vogt (00:06:53): Yeah, go-to, and it’s, it’s very basic, maybe- … hence the name. But a lot of fun. And that was like, that’s when, you know, when you first program, you see the magic of it. It’s like this world opens up with, you know, endless possibilities for the things you could build or accomplish with that computer. Lex Fridman (00:07:10): So you got the bug then. So even- … started with BASIC, and then, what, C++ throughout. What did you– Was there computer programming, computer science classes in high school? Kyle Vogt (00:07:19): Not where I went. So it was self-taught, but I did a lot of programming. The thing that, you know, sort of pushed me in the path of eventually working on self-driving cars was actually one of these really long trips driving from my house in Kansas to, to I think Las Vegas, where we did the BattleBots competition. And I had just gotten my, I think my learner’s permit or early driver’s permit. And so I was driving this, you know, 10-hour stretch across western Kansas where it’s just you’re going straight on a highway and it is mind-numbingly boring. And I remember thinking even then with my sort of mediocre programming background that this is something that a computer can do, right? Kyle Vogt (00:08:00): Let’s take a picture of the road and let’s find the yellow lane markers and, you know, steer the wheel. And, you know, later I’d come to realize this had been done, you know, since the ’80s or the ’70s or even earlier. But I still wanted to do it, and sort of immediately after that trip, switched from sort of BattleBots, which is more radio-controlled machines, to thinking about building, you know, autonomous vehicles of some scale. Start off with really small electric ones and then, you know, progress to what we’re doing now. Lex Fridman (00:08:28): So what was your view of artificial intelligence at that point? What, what did you think? So this is before… There’s been waves in artificial intelligence, right? The, the current wave with deep learning makes people believe that you can solve in a really rich, deep way the computer vision perception problem. But, like, in before the deep learning craze, you know, how do you think about how would you even go about building a thing that perceives itself in the world, localizes itself in the world, moves around the world? Like, when you were younger, I mean. As… What was your thinking about it? Kyle Vogt (00:09:02): Well, prior to deep neural networks or convolutional neural nets, these modern techniques we have, or at least ones that are in use today, it was all a heuristic space. And so, like, old school image processing. And I think extracting, you know, yellow lane markers out of an image of a road is one of the problems that lends itself reasonably well to those heuristic-based methods. You know, like, just do a threshold on the color yellow and then try to fit some lines to that using a Hough transform or something, and then go from there. Lex Fridman (00:09:32): Traffic light detection and stop sign detection, red, yellow, green. Kyle Vogt (00:09:35): And I, and I think- Lex Fridman (00:09:36): Or good- Kyle Vogt (00:09:36): … you can, you could… I mean, if you wanted to do a full… I was just trying to make something that would stay in between the lanes on a highway. But if you wanted to do the full, the full, you know, set of capabilities needed for a driverless car, I think you could… I mean, and we’d done this at Cruise, you know, in the very first days. You can start off with a really simple, you know, human-written heuristic just to get the scaffolding in place for your system. Traffic light detection, probably a really simple, you know, color thresholding on day one just to get the system up and running- Kyle Vogt (00:10:06): … before you migrate to, you know, a deep learning-based technique or, or something else. And, you know, back in, when I was doing this, my first one was on a Pentium 203, 233 MHz computer- … and it, and I, I think I wrote the first version in BASIC, which is- … like, an interpreted language. It’s extremely slow- … ’cause that’s the thing I knew at the time. And so there was no, no chance at all of using there was no computational power to do any sort of reasonable deep nets like you have today. So I don’t know what kids these days are doing. Are kids these days, you know, at age 13 using neural networks in their garage? I mean, that would- … be awesome. Lex Fridman (00:10:40): I get emails all the time from, you know, like, 11, 12-year-olds saying, “I’m having, you know, I’m trying to follow this TensorFlow tutorial and I’m having this problem.” And the general approach in the deep learning community is of extreme optimism as opposed to, you mentioned, like, heuristics. You can separate the autonomous driving problem into modules and try to solve it sort of rigorously, or you can just do it end to end. And most people just kind of love the idea that, you know, us humans do it end to end. We just perceive and act. We should be able to do the same kind of thing with neural nets. And that kind of thinking, you don’t want to criticize that kind of thinking because eventually they will be right. Lex Fridman (00:11:25): And so it’s exciting, and especially when they’re younger, to explore that is a really exciting approach. But yeah, it’s changed the language, the kind of stuff you’re tinkering with. It’s kind of exciting to see when these teenagers grow up. Kyle Vogt (00:11:41): Yeah. I can only imagine if your starting point is, you know, Python and TensorFlow at age 13, where you end up, you know, after 10 or 15 years of that. That’s pretty cool. Lex Fridman (00:11:51): Because of GitHub, because the state-of-the-art tools for solving most of the major problems in artificial intelligence are within a few lines of code for most kids. And that’s incredible to think about. Also on the entrepreneurial side, and on that point, was there any thought about entrepreneurship before you came to college? Is sort of doing your, building this into a thing that impacts the world on a large scale? Kyle Vogt (00:12:17): Yeah, I’ve always wanted to start a company. I think that’s, you know, just a cool concept of creating something and exchanging it for value or, or creating value, I guess. So in high school I was sort of trying to build like, you know, servo motor drivers, little circuit boards- … and sell them online or other, other things like that. And certainly knew at some point I wanted to do a startup, but it wasn’t really I’d say until college, until I felt like I had the, I guess, the right combination of the environment, the smart people around you, and some free time. I had a lot of free time at MIT. Lex Fridman (00:12:52): So you came to MIT as an undergrad, 2004. Kyle Vogt (00:12:55): That’s right. Lex Fridman (00:12:57): And that’s when the first DARPA Grand Challenge was happening. The timing of that is beautifully poetic. So how’d you get yourself involved in that one? Kyle Vogt (00:13:05): Originally there wasn’t a- Lex Fridman (00:13:07): Official entry? Kyle Vogt (00:13:07): … sort of, yeah, faculty-sponsored thing, and so a bunch of undergrads, myself included, started meeting and got together and tried to, to haggle together some sponsorships. We got a vehicle donated, a bunch of sensors, and tried to put something together. And so we had, our team was probably mostly freshmen and sophomores- … you know, which was not really a fair fight against maybe the, you know, post-doc and faculty-led teams from other schools. But we got something up and running. We had our vehicle drive by wire and, you know, very, very basic control and things. Kyle Vogt (00:13:39): But on the day of the qualifying, sort of pre-qualifying round, the one and only steering motor that we had purchased, the thing that we had, you know, retrofitted to turn the steering wheel on the truck, died. And so our vehicle was just dead in the water, couldn’t steer. So we didn’t make it very far. Lex Fridman (00:13:59): On the hardware side. So was there a software component? Was there… Like, how did your view of autonomous vehicles in terms of artificial intelligence evolve in this moment? I mean, you know, like you said, from the ’80s there’s been autonomous vehicles, but really that was the birth of the modern wave, the thing that captivated everyone’s imagination that we can actually do this. So what, how– Were you captivated in that way? So how did your view of autonomous vehicles change at that point? Kyle Vogt (00:14:28): I’d say at that point in time it was a curiosity, as in like, “Is this really possible?” And I think that was generally the spirit and the purpose of that original DARPA Grand Challenge, which was to just get a whole bunch of really brilliant people exploring this space and pushing the limits. And I think like to this day that DARPA Challenge with its, you know, million dollar prize pool was probably one of the most effective, you know, uses of taxpayer money dollar for dollar that I’ve seen. You know? Because that small sort of initiative that DARPA put out sort of in my view was the catalyst or the tipping point for this whole next wave of autonomous vehicle development. So that was pretty cool. Lex Fridman (00:15:17): So let me jump around a little bit on that point. They also did the Urban Challenge- … where it was in the city, but it was very artificial and there was no pedestrians, and there was very little human involvement except a few professional drivers. Do you think there’s room… And then there was the robotics challenge with humanoid robots. Kyle Vogt (00:15:35): Right. Lex Fridman (00:15:36): So in your now role as looking at this, you’re trying to solve one of the, you know, autonomous driving, one of the harder, more difficult places, San Francisco. Is there a role for DARPA to step in to also kind of help out, like challenge with new ideas, specifically like pedestrians and so on, all these kinds of interesting things? Kyle Vogt (00:15:55): Well, I haven’t thought about it from that perspective. Is there anything DARPA could do today to further accelerate things? And I would say my instinct is that that’s maybe not the highest and best use of their resources and time- Lex Fridman (00:16:07): Right Kyle Vogt (00:16:07): … because like kickstarting and spinning up the flywheel is I think what they did in this case for very, very little money. But today this has become like commercially interesting to very large companies, and the amount of money going into it and the amount of people like going through your class and learning about these things and developing these skills is just, you know, orders of magnitude more than it was back then. And so there’s enough momentum and inertia and energy and investment dollars into this space right now that I don’t, I don’t… I think they can just say mission accomplished and move on to the next- Lex Fridman (00:16:43): Makes sense Kyle Vogt (00:16:43): … area of technology that needs help. Lex Fridman (00:16:46): So then stepping back to MIT, you left MIT during your junior year. What was that decision like? Kyle Vogt (00:16:53): As I said, I always wanted to do a company in the, or start a company, and this opportunity landed in my lap, which was a couple guys from Yale were starting a new company, and I Googled them and found that they had started a company previously and sold it actually on eBay for about a quarter million bucks, which was a pretty interesting story. But, so I thought to myself, these guys are, you know, rock star entrepreneurs. They’ve done this before. They must be driving around in Ferraris ’cause they sold their company. And you know, I thought I could learn a lot from them. So I teamed up with those guys and, you know, went out during, went out to California during IAP, which is MIT’s- Kyle Vogt (00:17:33): Month off on a one-way ticket, and basically never went back. We were having so much fun. We felt like we were building something and creating something, and it was gonna be interesting that, you know, I was just all in and got completely hooked. And that business was Justin.tv, which was originally a reality show about a guy named Justin, which morphed into a live video streaming platform, which then morphed into what is Twitch today. So that was quite an unexpected journey. Lex Fridman (00:18:05): So no regrets. Kyle Vogt (00:18:07): No. Lex Fridman (00:18:07): Looking back, it was just an obvious, I mean, one-way ticket. I mean, if we just pause on that for a second, there was no… How did you know these were the right guys, this is the right decision? You didn’t think, it was just follow the heart kind of thing? Kyle Vogt (00:18:22): Well, I didn’t know. But, you know, just trying something for a month during IAP seems pretty low risk, right? Lex Fridman (00:18:27): Right. Kyle Vogt (00:18:28): And then, you know, well, maybe I’ll take a semester off. MIT’s pretty flexible about that. You can always go back, right? And then after two or three cycles of that, I eventually threw in the towel. But you know, I think it’s… I guess in that case, I felt like I could always hit the undo button if I had to. Lex Fridman (00:18:44): Right. But it nevertheless, from when you look in retrospect, I mean, it seems like a brave decision that, you know, it would be difficult for a lot of people to make. Kyle Vogt (00:18:54): It wasn’t as popular. I’d say the general, you know, flux of people out of MIT at the time was mostly into, you know, finance or consulting jobs in Boston or New York, and very few people were going to California to start companies. But today, I’d say that’s, it’s probably inverted, which is just a sign of, a sign of the times, I guess. Lex Fridman (00:19:15): Yep. So there’s a story about midnight of March 18, 2007, where TechCrunch, I guess, announced Justin.tv earlier than it was supposed to, a few hours. The site didn’t work. I don’t know if any of this is true. You can tell me. And you and one of the folks at Justin.tv, Emmett Shear, coded through the night. Can you take me through that experience? So let me say a few nice things that the article I read quoted Justin Kan said that you were known for hero coding through problems and being a creative, quote, “creative genius.” So on that night, what was going through your head? Or maybe put another way, how do you solve these problems? What’s your approach to solving these kinds of problems where the line between success and failure seems to be pretty thin? Kyle Vogt (00:20:10): That’s a good question. Well, first of all, that’s nice of Justin to say that. I think, you know, I would’ve been maybe 21 years old then and not very experienced at programming. But as with everything in a startup, you’re sort of racing against the clock. And so our plan was the second we had this live streaming camera backpack up and running where Justin could wear it and no matter where he went in a city, it would be streaming live video, and this is even before the iPhone, so this is, like, hard to do back then, we would launch. And so we thought we were there, and the backpack was working, and then we sent out all the emails to launch the company and do the press thing, and then, you know, we weren’t quite actually there. Kyle Vogt (00:20:53): And then we thought, “Oh, well, you know, they’re not gonna announce it until maybe 10:00 AM the next morning, and it’s, I don’t know, it’s 5:00 PM now, so how many hours do we have left? What is that? Like, you know, 17 hours to go.” And that was gonna be fine. Lex Fridman (00:21:10): Was the problem obvious? Did you understand what could possibly… Like, how complicated was the system at that point? Kyle Vogt (00:21:16): It was, it was pretty messy. So to get a live video feed that looked decent working from anywhere in San Francisco, I put together this system where we had, like, three or four cellphone data modems, and they were, like, we take the video stream and, you know, sort of spray it across these three or four modems and then try to catch all the packets on the other side, you know, with unreliable cellphone networks and- Lex Fridman (00:21:39): It’s pretty low-level networking, you know? Kyle Vogt (00:21:41): Yeah. And putting these, like, you know, sort of protocols on top of all that to, to reassemble and reorder the packets and have time buffers and error correction and all that kind of stuff. And the night before, it was just static-y. Every once in a while, the image would, would go static-y, and there would be this horrible, like, screeching audio noise, ’cause the audio was also corrupted, and this would happen, like, every five to 10 minutes or so, and it was a really- … you know, off-putting to the viewers. Lex Fridman (00:22:08): Yeah. How do you tackle that problem? What was the… You just freaking out behind a computer? There’s… Were, are there other, other folks working on this problem? Like, were you behind a whiteboard? Were you doing- Kyle Vogt (00:22:19): Yeah. It was- It was a little, it was a little lonely Lex Fridman (00:22:21): … pair coding? Kyle Vogt (00:22:22): Yeah, it was a little lonely, ’cause there was four of us working on the company, and only two people really wrote code, and Emmett wrote the website and the chat system, and I wrote the software for this video streaming device and video server. And so I, you know, it was my sole responsibility to figure that out. And I think, I think it’s those, you know, setting, setting deadlines, trying to move quickly and everything where, where you’re in that moment of intense pressure that sometimes people do their best and most interesting work. And so even though that was a terrible moment, I look back on it fondly, ’cause that’s like, you know, that’s one of those character defining moments, I think. Lex Fridman (00:22:54): So in 2013, October, you founded Cruise Automation. So progressing forward another exceptionally successful company. It was acquired by GM in ’16 for $1 billion. But in October 2013, what was on your mind? What was the plan? How does one seriously start to tackle one of the hardest robotics, most important impactful robotics problems of our age? Kyle Vogt (00:23:25): After going through Twitch, I… Twitch was, was and is today pretty successful, but the work was, the result was entertainment mostly. Like- the, the better the product was, the more we would entertain people and then, you know, make money on the ad revenues and other things. And that was, that was a good thing, and it felt, felt good to entertain people. But I figured, like, you know, what is really the point of becoming a really good engineer and developing these skills other than, you know, my own enjoyment? And I realized I wanted something that scratched more of an existential itch, like something that truly matters. Kyle Vogt (00:23:59): And so I basically made this list of requirements for a new, if I was gonna do another company, and the one thing I knew in the back of my head, that Twitch took, like, eight years to become successful. And so whatever I do, I better be willing to commit, you know, at least 10 years to, to something. And when you think about things from that perspective- You certainly, I think, raise the bar on what you choose to work on. So for me, the three things were it had to be something where the technology itself determines the success of the product, like hard, really juicy technology problems, ’cause that’s what motivates me. And then it had to have a direct and positive impact on society in some way. Kyle Vogt (00:24:37): So an example would be like, you know, healthcare, self-driving cars, ’cause they save lives, other things where there’s a clear connection to somehow improving other people’s lives. And the last one is it had to be a big business, because for the positive impact to matter, it’s gotta be at large scale. Lex Fridman (00:24:51): Scale, yeah. Kyle Vogt (00:24:52): And I was thinking about that for a while and I made like a– I tried writing a Gmail clone and looked at some other ideas, and then it just sort of lightbulb went off, like self-driving cars. Like, that was the most fun I had ever had in college working on that. And like, well, what’s the state of the technology? It’s been 10 years. Maybe, maybe times have changed, and maybe now is the time to make this work. And I poked around and looked at… The only other thing out there really at the time was the Google self-driving car project. Kyle Vogt (00:25:16): And I thought, surely there’s a way to, you know, have an entrepreneur mindset and sort of solve the minimum viable product here. And so I just took the plunge right then and there and said, “This, this is something I know I can commit 10 years to. It’s, probably the greatest applied AI problem of our generation.” Lex Fridman (00:25:31): That’s right. Kyle Vogt (00:25:32): “And if it works, it’s gonna be both a huge business, and therefore, like, probably the most positive impact I can possibly have on the world.” So after that lightbulb went off, I went all in on Cruise immediately and got to work. Lex Fridman (00:25:45): Did you have an idea how to solve this problem? Which aspects of the problem to solve? You know, slow-moving– like, we just had Oliver from Voyage here. Slow-moving retirement communities, urban driving, highway driving. Did you have, like did you have a vision of the city of the future where, you know, the transportation is largely automated, that kind of thing, or was it sort of more fuzzy and gray area than that? Kyle Vogt (00:26:12): My analysis of the situation is that Google’s putting a lot of, had been putting a lot of money into that project. They had a lot more resources, and so… And they still hadn’t cracked the fully driverless car. You know, this is 2013, I guess. So I thought, what, what can I do to sort of go from zero to, you know, significant scale so I can actually solve the real problem, which is the driverless cars? And I thought, here’s the strategy. We’ll start by doing a really simple problem or solving a really simple problem that creates value for people. So eventually ended up deciding on automating highway driving. Kyle Vogt (00:26:51): Which is relatively more straightforward as long as there’s a backup driver there. And I’ll, you know, the go-to-market will be able to retrofit people’s cars and just sell these products directly. And the idea was we’ll take all the revenue and profits from that and use it to do the– so sort of reinvest that in research for doing fully- Lex Fridman (00:27:11): Full Kyle Vogt (00:27:11): … driverless cars. And that was the plan. The only thing that really changed along the way between then and now is we never really launched the first product. We had enough interest from investors and enough of a signal that this was something that we should be working on, that after about a year of working on the Highway Autopilot, we had it working, you know, on, at a prototype stage, but we just completely abandoned that and said, “We’re gonna go all in on driverless cars. Now is the time. Can’t think of anything that’s more exciting, and if it works, more impactful, so we’re just gonna go for it.” Lex Fridman (00:27:41): The idea of retrofit is kind of interesting. Of being able to… It’s how you achieve scale. It’s a really interesting idea. Is it something that’s still in the back of your mind as a possibility? Kyle Vogt (00:27:52): Not at all. I’ve come full circle on that one. Lex Fridman (00:27:55): Okay. Kyle Vogt (00:27:55): After trying to build a retrofit product, and I’ll touch on some of the complexities of that, and then also having been inside an OEM and seeing how things work and how a vehicle is developed and validated, when it comes to something that has safety critical implications, like- Kyle Vogt (00:28:11): … controlling the steering and, you know, other control inputs on your car, it’s pretty hard to get there with a retrofit. Or, even if you did it, it creates a whole bunch of new complications around liability, or how did you truly validate that? Or, you know, if something in the base vehicle fails and causes your system to fail, whose fault is it? Or if the car’s anti-lock brake systems or other things kick in, or the software has been– it’s different in one version of the car you retrofit versus another, and you don’t know because the manufacturer has updated it behind the scenes. There’s basically an infinite list of long tail issues that can get you, and if you’re dealing with a safety critical product, that’s not really acceptable. Lex Fridman (00:28:49): That’s a really convincing summary of why it’s really challenging. ‘Cause it’s- Kyle Vogt (00:28:53): But I didn’t know all that at the time. So we tried it anyway. Lex Fridman (00:28:55): But as a pitch also, at the time- … it’s a really strong one. ‘Cause that’s how you achieve scale, and that’s how you beat the current, the leader at the time of Google, or the only one in the market. Kyle Vogt (00:29:04): The other big problem we ran into, which is perhaps the biggest problem from a business model perspective, is we had kind of assumed that we’d… We started with an Audi S4 as the vehicle we retrofitted with this highway driving capability, and we had kind of assumed that if we just knock out, like, three make and models of vehicle, that’ll cover, like, 80% of the San Francisco market. Kyle Vogt (00:29:26): Doesn’t everyone there drive, I don’t know, a BMW or a Honda Civic or one of these three cars? And then we surveyed our users, and we found out that it’s all over the place. We would– To get even a decent number of units sold, we’d have to support, like, you know, 20 or 50 different models, and each one is a little butterfly that takes time and effort to maintain, you know, that retrofit integration and custom hardware and all this. So it was a tough business. Lex Fridman (00:29:49): So GM manufactures and sells over nine million cars a year, and what you with Cruise are trying to do some of the most cutting-edge innovation in terms of applying AI. And so how, how do those… You’ve, we’ve talked about it a little bit before, but it’s also just fascinating to me. We work with a lot of automakers. You know, the difference between the gap between Detroit and Silicon Valley, let’s say, just to be sort of poetic about it, I guess. What, how do you close that gap? How do you take GM into the future where a large part of the fleet will be autonomous perhaps? Kyle Vogt (00:30:24): I wanna start by acknowledging that GM is made up of, you know, tens of thousands of really brilliant, motivated people who wanna be a part of the future, and so it’s pretty fun to work with them. The attitude inside a car company like that is, you know, embracing this transformation and change rather than fearing it. And I think that’s a testament to the leadership at GM, and that’s flowing all the way through to everyone you talk to, even the people in the assembly plants working on these cars. Kyle Vogt (00:30:51): So that’s really great. So starting from that position makes it a lot easier. So then when the people in San Francisco at Cruise interact with the people at GM, at least we have this common set of values, which is that we really want this stuff to work ’cause we think it’s important and we think it’s the future. That’s not to say, you know, those two cultures don’t clash. They absolutely do. There’s different sort of value systems. Like in a car company, the thing that gets you promoted and sort of the reward system is following the processes, delivering the program on time and on budget. Kyle Vogt (00:31:26): So any sort of risk-taking is discouraged in many ways because if a program is late or if you shut down the plant for a day, it’s, you know, you can count the millions of dollars that burn by pretty quickly. Whereas I think in most Silicon Valley companies and in Cruise and the methodology we were employing, especially around the time of the acquisition, the reward structure is about trying to solve these complex problems in any way, shape, or form or coming up with crazy ideas that, you know, 90% of them won’t work. Kyle Vogt (00:31:59): And so meshing that culture of sort of continuous improvement and experimentation with one where everything needs to be, you know, rigorously defined upfront so that you never slip a deadline or miss a budget was a pretty big challenge. And we’re over three years in now after the acquisition, and I’d say, like, you know, the investment we made in figuring out how to work together successfully and who should do what and how we bridge the gaps between these very different systems and way of doing engineering work is now one of our greatest assets ’cause I think we have this really powerful thing. But for a while both GM and Cruise were very steep on the learning curve. Lex Fridman (00:32:37): Yes, I’m sure it was very stressful. It’s really important work ’cause that’s, that’s how to revolutionize the transportation. Really to revolutionize any system. You know, you look at the healthcare system or you look at the legal system. I have people, like lawyers come up to me all the time, like everything they’re working on can easily be automated, but then that’s- Kyle Vogt (00:32:56): That’s not a good feeling. Yeah. Lex Fridman (00:32:57): Well, it’s not a good feeling, but also there’s no way to automate because the entire infrastructure is really, you know, based, is older and it moves very slowly. And so how do you close the gap between I have an e- how can I replace… Of course, lawyers don’t wanna be replaced with an app, but you could- … replace a lot of aspect when most of the data is still on paper. And so the same thing with, with automotive. I mean, it’s fundamentally software. So it’s, it’s basically hiring software engineers. It’s thinking in a software world. I mean, I’m pretty sure nobody in Silicon Valley has ever hit a deadline. So, and then on, on GM- Kyle Vogt (00:33:36): That’s, that’s probably true, yeah. Lex Fridman (00:33:37): On GM’s side it’s probably the opposite. So that culture gap is really fascinating. So you’re optimistic about the future of that? Kyle Vogt (00:33:45): Yeah, I mean, from what I’ve seen it’s impressive. And I think, like, especially in Silicon Valley, it’s easy to write off building cars because, you know, people have been doing that for over 100 years now in this country. And so it seems like that’s a solved problem, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy problem. And I think it would be easy to sort of overlook that and think that, you know, we’re Silicon Valley engineers, we can solve any problem. You know, building a car, it’s been done, therefore it’s not a real engineering challenge. Kyle Vogt (00:34:14): But after having seen just the sheer scale and magnitude and industrialization that occurs inside of an automotive assembly plant, that is a lot of work that I am very glad that we don’t have to reinvent to make self-driving cars work. And so to have, you know, partners who have done that for 100 years, have these great processes and this huge infrastructure and supply base that we can tap into is just remarkable because the scope and surface area of the problem of deploying fleets of self-driving cars is so large that we’re constantly looking for ways to do less so we can focus on the things that really matter more. And if we had to figure out how to build and assemble and, you know- Lex Fridman (00:34:57): Tests and, yeah Kyle Vogt (00:34:58): … yeah, build the cars themselves, I mean, we work closely with GM on that, but if we had to develop all that capability in-house as well, you know, that would just make the problem really intractable, I think. Lex Fridman (00:35:09): Mm-hmm. So yeah, just like your first entry at the MIT DARPA Challenge when there was what, the motor that failed. If somebody that knows what they’re doing with a motor did it, they could just focus on the soft- Kyle Vogt (00:35:20): That would’ve been nice if we could just focus on the software- … not the, not the hardware platform. Yeah. Lex Fridman (00:35:24): Right. So from your perspective now, you know, there are so many ways that autonomous vehicles can impact society in the next year, five years, 10 years. What do you think is the biggest opportunity to make money in autonomous driving? So sort of make it a financially viable thing in the near term. What do you think will be the biggest impact there? Kyle Vogt (00:35:49): Well, the things that drive the economics for fleets of self-driving cars are, there’s sort of a handful of variables. One is, you know, the cost to build the vehicle itself, so the material cost. How many, you know, what’s the cost of all your sensors plus the cost of the vehicle and every, all the other components on it. Another one is the lifetime of the vehicle. It’s very different if your vehicle drives 100,000 miles and then it falls apart versus, you know, two million. And then, you know, if you have a fleet, it’s kinda like an airplane or an airline where once you produce the vehicle, you want it to be in operation- Kyle Vogt (00:36:27): … as many hours a day as possible producing revenue. And then you know, the other piece of that is How are you generating revenue? And I think that’s kinda what you’re asking. And I think the obvious things today are, you know, the ride sharing business, because that’s pretty clear that there’s demand for that. There’s existing markets you can tap into. Lex Fridman (00:36:46): Large urban areas, that kind of thing. Kyle Vogt (00:36:48): Yeah, yeah. And I think that there are some real benefits to having cars without drivers compared to sort of the status quo for people who use ride share services today. You know, you get privacy, consistency, hopefully significantly improved safety, all these benefits versus the current product. But it’s a crowded market, and then other opportunities which you’ve seen a lot of activity in the last, really in the last six to 12 months is, you know, delivery, whether that’s parcels and packages, food, or groceries. Kyle Vogt (00:37:17): Those are all sort of, I think, opportunities that are pretty ripe for these, you know, once you have this core technology, which is the fleet of autonomous vehicles, there’s all sorts of different business opportunities you can build on top of that. But I think the important thing, of course, is that there’s zero monetization opportunity until you actually have that fleet of very capable driverless cars that are as good or better than humans. And that’s sort of where the entire industry is sort of in this holding pattern right now. Lex Fridman (00:37:46): Yeah, they’re trying to achieve that baseline. So, but you said sort of reli- not reliability, consistency. It’s kinda interesting. I think I heard you say somewhere, I’m not sure if that’s what you meant, but, you know, I can imagine a situation where you would get in an autonomous vehicle and you know, when you get into an Uber or Lyft, you don’t get to choose the driver in a sense that you don’t get to choose the personality of the driving. Do you think there’s room to define the personality of the car, the way it drives you in terms of aggressiveness, for example, in terms of sort of pushing the bound- the, one of the biggest challenges in autonomous driving is the trade-off between sort of safety and assertiveness. Lex Fridman (00:38:28): And is, do you think there’s any room for the human to take a role in that decision to accept some- Kyle Vogt (00:38:36): I mean, we- Lex Fridman (00:38:36): … of the liability, I guess? Kyle Vogt (00:38:37): We, I wouldn’t as- No, I’d say within reasonable bounds, as in we’re not gonna I think it’d be highly unlikely we’d expose any knob that would let you, you know, significantly increase, you know, safety risk. I think that’s just not something we’d be willing to do. But I think driving style or, like, you know, are you gonna relax the comfort constraints slightly or things like that, all of those things make sense and are plausible. I see all those as, you know, nice optimizations once, again, we get the core problem solved and these fleets out there. But the other thing we’ve sort of observed is that you have this intuition that if you sort of slam your foot on the gas right after the light turns green and aggressively accelerate, you’re gonna get there faster. Kyle Vogt (00:39:19): But the actual impact of doing that is pretty small. You feel like you’re getting there faster, but so the, so the same would be true for AVs. Even if they don’t slam their, you know, the pedal to the floor when the light turns green, they’re gonna get you there within, you know, if it’s a 15-minute trip, within 30 seconds of what you would have done otherwise if you were going really aggressively. So I think there’s this sort of self-deception that my aggressive driving style is getting me there faster. Lex Fridman (00:39:44): Well, so that’s, you know, some of the things I study, some of the things I’m fascinated by, the psychology of that. I don’t think it matters that it doesn’t get you there faster. It’s the emotional release. Driving is a place, being inside of a car, somebody said it’s like the real world version of being a troll. So you have this protection, this mental protection, and you’re able to sort of yell at the world, like release your anger, whatever is bo- so there’s an element of that that I think autonomous vehicles would also have to s- you know, giving an outlet to people, but it doesn’t have to be through driving or honking or so on. Lex Fridman (00:40:19): There might be other outlets. But I think to just sort of even just put that aside, the baseline is really, you know, that’s the focus, that’s the thing you need to solve, and then the fun human things can be solved after. But so from the baseline of just solving autonomous driving and you’re working in San Francisco, one of the more difficult cities to operate in, what is, in your view currently, the hardest aspect of autonomous driving? Is it negotiating with pedestrians? Is it edge cases of perception? Is it planning? Is there a mechanical engineering? Is it data, fleet stuff? What are your thoughts on the challen- the more challenging aspects there? Kyle Vogt (00:41:01): That’s a good question. I think before we go to that though, I just wanna… I like what you said about the psychology aspect- … of this, ’cause I think one observation I’ve made is I think I read somewhere that I think it’s maybe Americans on average spend, you know, over an hour a day on social media- … Like staring at Facebook. And so that’s just, you know, 60 minutes of your life you’re not getting back, and it’s probably not super productive. And so that’s 3,600 seconds, right? And that’s, you know, it’s a lot of time you’re giving up. And if you compare that to people being on the road, if another vehicle, whether it’s a human driver or autonomous vehicle, delays them by even three seconds- … they’re laying in on the horn. Kyle Vogt (00:41:41): You know, even though that’s, you know, 1/1000th of the time they waste looking at Facebook every day. So there’s definitely some psychology aspects of this I think that are pretty interesting, road rage in general, and then the question of course, is if everyone is in self-driving cars, do they even notice these three-second delays anymore? ‘Cause they’re doing other things or reading or working or just talking to each other. So it’ll be interesting to see where that goes. Lex Fridman (00:42:03): In a certain aspect, people need to be distracted by something entertaining, something useful inside the car so they don’t pay attention to the external world, and then they can take whatever psychology and bring it back to Twitter- … and then focus on that as opposed to sort of interacting, sort of putting the emotion out there into the world. So it’s an interesting problem, but baseline autonomy. Kyle Vogt (00:42:27): Yeah, I guess you could say self-driving cars, you know, at scale will lower the collective blood pressure of society probably by a couple points- … Without all that road rage and stress. So that’s a good externality. So back to your question about the technology and the, I guess the biggest problems. And I have a hard time answering that question because, you know, we’ve been at this, like, specifically focusing on driverless cars and all the technology needed to enable that for a little over four and a half years now. Kyle Vogt (00:42:55): And even a year or two in, I felt like we had completed the functionality needed to get someone from point A to point B. As in, if we need to do a left turn maneuver or if we need to drive around a, you know, double parked vehicle into oncoming traffic, or navigate through construction zones, the scaffolding and the building blocks were there pretty early on. And so the challenge is not any one scenario or situation for which, you know, we fail at 100% of those. It’s more, you know, we’re benchmarking against a pretty good or pretty high standard, which is human driving. All things considered, humans are excellent at handling- Kyle Vogt (00:43:34): … edge cases and, and unexpected scenarios, whereas computers are the opposite. And so beating that baseline set by humans is the challenge. And so what we’ve been doing for quite some time now is basically it’s this continuous improvement process where we find sort of the most, you know, uncomfortable or, or the things that, that could lead to a safety issue, other things, all these events, and then we sort of categorize them and rework parts of our system to make incremental improvements and do that over and over and over again. And we just see sort of the overall performance of the system, you know, actually increasing at a pretty steady clip. But there’s no one thing. Kyle Vogt (00:44:15): There’s actually, like, thousands of little things and just, like, polishing functionality and making sure that it handles, you know, every version and possible permutation of a situation by either applying more deep learning systems or just by, you know, adding more test coverage or new scenarios that we develop against, and just grinding on that. It’s, we’re sort of in the unsexy phase of development right now, which is doing the real engineering work that it takes to go from prototype to production. Lex Fridman (00:44:44): You’re basically scaling the grinding. So, sort of taking seriously the process of all those edge cases, both with human experts and machine learning methods to cover all those situations. Kyle Vogt (00:44:59): Yeah, and the exciting thing for me is I don’t think that grinding ever stops. Because there’s a moment in time where you’ve crossed that threshold of human performance and become superhuman. But there’s no reason, there’s no first principles reason that AV capability will tap out anywhere near humans. Like, there’s no reason it couldn’t be 20 times better, whether that’s, you know, just better driving or safer driving or more comfortable driving, or even 1,000 times better given enough time. And we intend to basically chase that, you know, forever to build the best possible product. Lex Fridman (00:45:32): Better and better and better, and always new edge cases come up and new experiences, so, and you wanna automate that process as much as possible. So what do you think in general in society, when do you think we may have hundreds of thousands of fully autonomous vehicles driving around? So first of all, predictions, nobody knows the future. You’re a part of the leading people trying to define that future, but even then you still don’t know. But if you think about hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so a significant fraction of vehicles in major cities are autonomous. Do you think… Are, are you with Rodney Brooks, who is 2050 and beyond? Or are you more with Elon Musk, who is, “We should’ve had that two years ago”? Kyle Vogt (00:46:20): Well, I mean- Lex Fridman (00:46:22): I don’t mean to be- Kyle Vogt (00:46:22): … I’d love to have it two years ago, but we’re not there yet. So I guess the way I would think about that is let’s flip that question around. So what would prevent you to reach hundreds of thousands of vehicles? And- Lex Fridman (00:46:36): That’s a good rephrasing, yeah. Kyle Vogt (00:46:38): Yeah, so the… I’d say the, it seems the consensus among the people developing self-driving cars today is to sort of start with some form of an easier environment, whether it means, you know, lacking inclement weather or, you know, mostly sunny or whatever it is, and then add capability for more complex situations over time. And so if you’re only able to deploy in areas that meet sort of your criteria or the current operating domain of the software you developed that may put a cap on how many cities you could deploy in. Kyle Vogt (00:47:19): But then as those restrictions start to fall away, like maybe you add capability to drive really well and safely in heavy rain or snow, you know, that probably opens up the market by two or three-fold in terms of the cities you can expand into and so on. And so the real question is, you know, I know today if we wanted to, we could produce that many autonomous vehicles. But we wouldn’t be able to make use of all of them yet ’cause we would sort of saturate the demand in the cities in which we would want to operate initially. So if I were to guess, like, what the timeline is for those things falling away and reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles- Lex Fridman (00:47:55): Maybe a range is better Kyle Vogt (00:47:56): … I would, I would say less than five years. Lex Fridman (00:47:57): Less than five years. And of course, you’re working hard to make that happen. Lex Fridman (00:48:00): So you started two companies that were eventually acquired each for a billion dollars. So you’re a pretty good person to ask, what does it take to build a successful startup? Kyle Vogt (00:48:14): Hmm. I think there’s sort of survivor bias here a little bit, but I can try to find some common threads for the things that worked for me, which is, you know, in both of these companies, I was really passionate about the core technology. I actually lay awake at night thinking about these problems and how to solve them. And I think that’s helpful because when you start a business, there are – like to this day there are – these crazy ups and downs. Like one day you think the business is just on, you’re just on top of the world and unstoppable, and the next day you think, “Okay, this is all gonna end. Kyle Vogt (00:48:46): You know, it’s just going south, and it’s gonna be over tomorrow.” Um, and so I think, like, having a true passion that you can fall back on and knowing that you would be doing it even if you weren’t getting paid for it helps you weather those tough times. So that’s one thing. I think the other one is really good people. So I’ve always been surrounded by really good co-founders that are logical thinkers, are always pushing their limits, and have very high levels of integrity. So that’s Dan Kan in my current company, and actually his brother and a couple other guys for Justin.tv and Twitch. And then I think the last thing is just I guess persistence or perseverance. Like… And, and that can apply to sticking to sort of a, the… Kyle Vogt (00:49:30): Or having conviction around the original premise of your idea and sticking around to do all the, you know, the unsexy work to actually make it come to fruition- … including dealing with, you know, whatever it is that you’re not passionate about, whether that’s finance or HR or operations or those things. As long as you are grinding away and working towards, you know, that North Star for your business, whatever it is, and you don’t give up, and you’re making progress every day, it seems like eventually you’ll end up in a good place. And the only things that can slow you down are, you know, running out of money or I suppose your competitor is destroying you. But I think most of the time it’s people giving up or somehow destroying- Kyle Vogt (00:50:07): … things themselves rather than being beaten by their competition or running out of money. Lex Fridman (00:50:11): Yeah, if you never quit, eventually you’ll arrive. So, uh- Kyle Vogt (00:50:15): That’s a much more concise version of what I was trying to say. Yeah, that was good. Lex Fridman (00:50:18): So you went the Y Combinator route twice. What do you think, in a quick question, do you think is the best way to raise funds in the early days? Or not just funds, but just community, develop your idea, and so on. Can you do it solo or maybe with a co-founder? With, like, self-funded? Do you think Y Combinator is good? Is it good to do VC route? Is there no right answer, or is there, from the Y Combinator experience, something that you could take away that that was the right path to take? Kyle Vogt (00:50:48): There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but if your ambition, I think, is to, you know, see how big you can make something or, or rapidly expand and capture a market or solve a problem or whatever it is, then, you know, going the venture backed route is probably a good approach so that capital doesn’t become your primary constraint. Y Combinator I love because it puts you in this sort of competitive environment where you’re surrounded by, you know, the top maybe 1% of other really highly motivated peers who are in the same place. Kyle Vogt (00:51:22): And that environment I think just breeds success, right? If you’re surrounded by really brilliant, hardworking people, you’re gonna feel, you know, sort of compelled or inspired to try to emulate them and, or beat them. And so even though I had done it once before and I felt like, you know, I’m pretty self-motivated, I thought, like, “Look, this is gonna be a hard problem. I can use all the help I can get.” So surrounding myself with other entrepreneurs is gonna make me work a little bit harder or push a little harder, then it’s worth it. And so that’s why I did it, you know, for example, the second time. Lex Fridman (00:51:54): Let’s go philosophical, existential. If you go back and do something differently in your life, starting in high school, then MIT, leaving MIT, you could have gone the PhD route, doing the startup, going to see about a startup in California, and you th- or maybe some aspects of fundraising. Is there something you regret, something you th- well, not necessarily regret, but if you go back you could do differently? Kyle Vogt (00:52:22): I think I’ve made a lot of mistakes. Like, you know, pretty much everything you can screw up I think I’ve screwed up at least once. But I don’t regret those things. I think it’s hard to look back on things even if they didn’t go well and call it a regret because hopefully, you know, it took away some new knowledge or learning from that. So, I would say there was a period… Yeah the closest I can come to is this. There was a period in Justin.tv I think after seven years where the company was going one direction, which was towards Twitch and video gaming. I’m not a video gamer. Kyle Vogt (00:52:58): I don’t really even use Twitch at all. And I was still working on the core technology there, but my heart was no longer in it because the business that we were creating was not something that I was personally passionate about. Lex Fridman (00:53:10): It didn’t meet your bar of existential impact. Kyle Vogt (00:53:12): Yeah. And I’d say I probably spent an extra year or two working on that. And I’d say, like, I would have just tried to do something different sooner, ’cause those were two years where I felt like, you know, from this philosophical or existential thing, I just felt that something was missing. And so I would have… If I could look back now and tell myself, it’s like I would have said exactly that. Like, “You’re not getting any meaning out of your work personally right now. You should find a way to change that.” And that’s part of the pitch I use to basically everyone who joins Cruise today. It’s like, “Hey, you’ve got that now by coming here.” Lex Fridman (00:53:48): Yeah. Well, maybe you needed the two years of that existential dread to develop the feeling that ultimately was the fire that created Cruise, so you never know. You can’t really know. Kyle Vogt (00:53:56): Yeah. Good theory, yeah. Lex Fridman (00:53:57): So last question, what does 2019 hold for Cruise? Kyle Vogt (00:54:02): After this I guess we’re gonna go and- … and I’ll talk to your class. But one of the big things is going from prototype to production for autonomous cars, and what does that mean and what does that look like. And 2019 for us is the year that we try to cross over that threshold and reach, you know, superhuman level of performance to some degree with the software, and have all the other of the thousands of little building blocks in place to launch, you know, our first commercial product. So that’s what’s in store for us, and we’ve got a lot of work to do. We’ve got a lot of brilliant people working on it. So it’s all up to us now. Lex Fridman (00:54:37): Yeah. From Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, like the people I’ve crossed paths with- Kyle Vogt (00:54:42): Oh, great. Yeah. Lex Fridman (00:54:42): … the few, it sounds like you have an amazing team. So like I said, it’s one of the most, I think one of the most important problems in artificial intelligence of the century. It’ll be one of the most defining. So it’s super exciting that you’re working on it, and the best of luck in 2019. I’m really excited to see what Cruise comes up with. Kyle Vogt (00:55:01): Thank you. Thanks for having me today. Lex Fridman (00:55:02): Thanks, Kyle.

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