第 184 期·中文精讀

凱瑟琳·德克利爾:太陽系中的行星、衛星與小行星

Katherine de Kleer: Planets, Moons, and Asteroids in Our Solar System

行星科學家介紹木衛、土衛與小行星的觀測成果,以及太陽系天體的形成與演化。

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每個行星科學家都被小孩子問過同一個問題:冥王星為什麼不是行星了。

凱瑟琳·德克利爾(Katherine de Kleer)是加州理工學院的行星科學與天文學教授,研究太陽系行星和衛星的表面環境、大氣與熱化學歷史。她給出的答案裡藏著一個很少有人提的細節:國際天文學聯合會(IAU)2006 年那套定義一共三條,第一條是"必須繞太陽公轉",這一條寫進去純粹是為了把衛星排除在外。但按字面執行,所有系外行星都不算行星。人類今天已經確認了四千多顆系外行星,一條定義把它們全體開除。

第二條要求天體質量足夠大,靠自身引力把自己壓成球形。冥王星滿足,木衛二滿足,木衛一滿足,太陽系裡一大堆衛星都滿足。

真正把冥王星擋在門外的是第三條:必須清除掉自己軌道附近的其他天體。冥王星在柯伊伯帶裡執行,周圍全是同類,它沒能力把那些東西一個個撞飛或收編。所以談不上什麼降級。它的位置決定了它永遠達不到這條標準。

德克利爾說,這種事在歷史上發生過一次。穀神星(Ceres)1801 年被發現時,被堂堂正正寫進了行星名單。後來天文學家在火星和木星之間發現了越來越多的同類天體,才意識到穀神星只是那片區域裡最大的一塊碎片。它先被降級成小行星,如今又被叫作矮行星。同一塊石頭,兩百多年裡換了三次身份。

她管衛星叫行星,而且不打算改口

德克利爾本人對這套分類體系毫無敬意。

"我對一個東西的興趣程度,和它被歸到哪個類別裡毫無關係。我個人根本不在乎。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

她說這話時,太陽系裡她最喜歡的那些天體全是衛星。她平時講話時經常直接把它們叫作行星,因為在她看來它們本來就是行星:有火山,有地質活動,有大氣,是行星級別的世界。

這個立場談不上什麼矯情。太陽系裡我們花最多力氣探測的是行星,去木星、去土星、去火星、去金星,任務一個接一個。外太陽系那些衛星的探測,按她的判斷,是太陽系探索的下一個前沿。她的理由很直接:衛星上未知的東西更多,能問的問題還停留在最粗的層面,那裡的發現空間比行星大得多。

她承認自己在這一點上對行星不太公平。火星上有沒有過生命,這是個巨大的問題,人類往那兒送了一堆機器人。但行星的觀測資料確實比衛星厚得多,能挖的新東西少。

望遠鏡贏在能盯四十年,飛船贏在細節

德克利爾是走天文這條路進行星科學的。很多行星科學家的童年夢想是造飛船,她的童年是趴在望遠鏡後面看星星。這個出身決定了她看問題的方式。

她講了一個常被忽略的差別:飛船給的是短時間視窗裡的海量資訊,望遠鏡給的是長時間跨度上的連續性。土衛六(Titan)繞太陽一圈要將近三十年,想知道它的大氣季節怎麼變化,就得盯著看三十年、四十年。這件事飛船做不到,望遠鏡能。

具體到什麼程度?她一個晚上對著木衛一拍照,能分辨出十幾個不同的火山,把它們的紅外輻射一個個分開,然後連續幾個晚上看那些熱量怎麼變。空間解析度大概是兩三百公里,不算精細,但足以看清火山這種尺度的活動的起伏。

她還提到光譜學。把光譜儀對準一個天體,能讀出它表面的成分。土衛六大氣裡的雲塊會隨時間被拉成絲狀,木衛一上的熔岩流一天一天擴張,這些都能從地球上、從哈勃或者詹姆斯·韋布那裡看到。

她自己都覺得意外:開始做太陽系天文學之後,才發現從地面和近地軌道能拿到的資訊居然這麼多。

給一顆衛星加熱,不需要太陽

要理解太陽系裡的衛星,先得理解它們的熱源。地球的熱來自內部放射性衰變和形成時殘留的熱量。很多外太陽系的衛星靠的是另一個機制:潮汐加熱。

原理不復雜。如果幾個衛星的軌道週期互為整數倍,它們就會一直在軌道的同一個位置相遇。如果軌道是隨機的,兩個衛星相遇的位置每次都不同,引力擾動在長時間裡會互相抵消。正因為它們每次都在同一個地方碰頭,這些引力作用會相干地累加起來,把軌道一點點拉成橢圓。

橢圓意味著有近有遠。木衛一靠近木星時,被潮汐力拉長;遠離木星時,拉伸幅度變小。整顆星球的形狀在一個只有幾天的軌道週期裡反覆變形,幅度看著不大,兩三百米。但木衛一地幔裡的摩擦足以把岩石熔掉。

那些岩漿就是這麼來的。沒有太陽的幫助,靠的是木星拽著它反覆揉搓。

木星系統裡這是一組三體共振:木衛一、木衛二、木衛三。木衛二離木星遠一些,形變沒那麼劇烈,熱量小得多。但那份熱量足以驅動它海底的熱液活動。地球海底熱液噴口附近進化出了極有意思的生命形態,這讓木衛二的海底成了一個值得認真對待的地方。

木衛一:岩漿直接打穿地殼

木衛一是太陽系裡火山活動最猛的天體。它有幾百座活火山,火山羽流能衝到地表以上幾百公里,單個火山噴出的岩漿量超過今天地球上任何一座火山。

德克利爾對它的興趣不止於壯觀。她把木衛一看成一個實驗室,用來檢驗我們對行星運作方式的理解到底有多通用。

我們關於火山的直覺全部來自地球。地球有濃密大氣,岩漿在噴出時和大氣發生複雜的相互作用,氣體從岩漿裡析出的方式和木衛一完全不同。地球火山噴出的氣體主要是水和二氧化碳,二氧化硫排第三。木衛一上沒有水和二氧化碳,要麼它形成時就沒有,要麼後來丟光了。整個出氣的化學過程是另一套邏輯。

木衛一的大氣主要成分是二氧化硫,氣壓比火星還低一千倍。火山羽流裡那些二氧化硫會凝結在灰粒上,形成二氧化硫的雪,從羽流裡飄下來。你以為那裡沒有光,其實有,只是弱得多,具體能不能看見雪取決於太陽角度。

岩漿的熱讓噴出來的熔岩超過一千度。因為幾乎沒有大氣,熔岩的黏度極低,流起來像水,會從裂縫裡湧出高達一公里的熔岩幕。地球上只有在冰島能看到縮小版的類似現象。

羽流的形態也完全不同於地球。沒有大氣,噴出來的顆粒全部沿彈道飛行,去哪裡只取決於它離開噴口時的方向,最後在空中張開成一把巨大的傘。地球那種被大氣攪成複雜形狀的羽流,在木衛一上不存在。

還有一件更根本的差別:木衛一沒有板塊構造。

地球的火山沿著板塊邊界排列,因為地表是一塊塊堅硬的岩石板浮在部分熔融的層上,板塊移動、碰撞、俯衝,把物質從內部帶上來,把地表物質帶下去。木衛一的地殼是完整的一層,冷而堅硬,火山是岩漿直接在這層殼上打洞衝出來。學名叫熱管火山(heat pipe volcanism)。

這套機制今天在太陽系裡獨此一家。但幾乎每一顆類地行星和月球,在早期歷史上都經歷過這種大規模溢流式噴發。所以觀察木衛一,某種程度上是在看地球幾十億年前的青年時代。

岩石和水必須挨著,才有機會

木衛二(Europa)是另一個被反覆討論的地方。人們關心它,主要是冰殼底下那片海。

木星的四大衛星裡,木衛三和木衛四也被認為有地下海洋。但它們的結構是冰殼、海洋、再一層冰殼,底下才是岩石。這個結構對生命是個壞訊息:你的海被夾在兩層冰中間,本質上就是一池純水,沒有東西可溶。

木衛二不一樣。人們認為它的海底沒有那層冰,海水和岩石直接接觸。岩石裡的物質能溶進水裡,海底的熱液活動能同時提供能量和養分。這個岩石與水的介面,被德克利爾視為判斷宜居性的關鍵指標。

她說了一句措辭很小心的話:科學界"按慣例"認為液態水是生命必需的。她特意強調"按慣例",因為人類對生命的全部認知都建立在"我們認識的這種生命"上,這本身就是一種偏見。如果某種生命能在岩漿裡活下來,只要岩漿能保持液態足夠久,有熱源、有液體、有養分,那三個經典的天體生物學條件就都齊了。

怎麼確認?她認為大機率得鑽。木衛二表面有長長的構造裂縫,理論上海底的水可能順著這些地方滲到地表。你可以設想一種情形:細菌從海里上來,被輻射殺死在表面,你的儀器探測到那具屍體的光譜特徵。但這裡面的"如果"太多,一層套一層。

土衛二(Enceladus)給了個稍微靠譜的機會。它是土星的衛星,結構和木衛二類似,有地下海洋,很可能也接觸岩石。但它的南極有巨大的噴泉,噴出來的物質看樣子直接來自海洋。這意味著你可以讓飛船穿過那道噴流,把物質兜住,直接測量。前提是兜住的速度不會把你想找的生命的痕跡撞碎。

外星人要是從軌道上看地球,會先看到板塊

德克利爾和弗裡德曼聊到一個有意思的假設:如果一支外星科考隊懸在地球軌道上,只靠遙感寫一份地球考察報告,他們會寫什麼。

她的第一反應是火山。然後是這個:

"給足夠的時間,你從軌道上能看出地球有板塊構造。你能看到火山沿著這些線分佈。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

把地球上所有火山的位置標出來,它們排成幾條清晰的線,那些線就是板塊邊界。你還能看到夏威夷那一串火山,從它們的排列能反推出板塊在某個深部地幔柱上方移動。所以只要有足夠長的觀測時間,外星人僅憑火山的位置分佈,就能推斷出地球有板塊構造,而這在太陽系裡是獨一份。

板塊構造和宜居性的關係,德克利爾講得很清楚。地表如果有物質迴圈,內部的新鮮物質被帶上來,地表的舊物質被帶下去,養分供應就一直被重新整理。如果地表是停滯的,所有能被氧化的東西都氧化完了,生命能從裡面榨取能量的反應也就到頭了,整個系統卡在一個死點上。

所以從天體生物學家的角度看地球,會看到兩件事:物質的迴圈,以及大氣裡異常高的氧氣含量。加上合適的溫度和液態水,這三樣加起來足以把地球標成一個值得關注的宜居候選。

弗裡德曼追問:那人類呢?外星人會注意到我們嗎?

德克利爾的判斷是,人類的生物量佔比小得可以忽略。真要按數量算,他們可能先注意到螞蟻。或者乾脆注意到那些有直角和直線的東西:城市。因為自然界不長那樣,硬邊和直角違背基本的自然物理。至於燈光、電網這些,她不太確定外星人會不會識別成技術痕跡。

弗裡德曼順著往下推:如果外星人的測量手段是按數量而不是按尺寸排序,他們可能會把一座城市當成一個生物體,白天安靜,晚上發光,作息規律得可疑。

天氣預報在土衛六上失敗過

每顆行星和衛星的天氣都不一樣,而且我們對它們的理解都很差。連大氣環流的基本模式都說不清楚,為什麼會形成那些風暴系統也說不清楚。

雲是一個觀測視窗。大氣環流把某些物質從深處帶到溫度較低的高度,那些物質凝結成雲。雲出現在哪個高度,能反推環流的結構:是在赤道上升、兩極下沉,還是存在多個環流單元。木星上還疊加了渦旋和反渦旋,那些朝相反方向移動的條帶,可能在透露木星內部深處的物理狀態。

雲的成分按高度和溫度可以推算。木星上的雲是氨冰顆粒,天王星和海王星上是甲烷冰。不同的成分呈現不同的顏色。

天王星是個極端案例。它是躺著轉的,軌道週期八十四年。地球的四季只因為赤道相對軌道面傾斜了一點點,陽光有時偏上有時偏下。天王星是十年直射北極,然後十年直射赤道,然後十年直射南極。按常理,這種加熱方式應該把大氣攪得天翻地覆。

結果它看起來相當平靜。這件事本身就是資訊:大氣有重新分配熱量的能力,有自我調節的成分,能扛住極端條件。也正因為如此,預測這種複雜系統如何演化極其困難。

德克利爾舉了土衛六的例子。它是太陽系裡研究得最透的大氣之一,人們建立了全球環流模型,用來預測它下一個季節會發生什麼。預測錯了。

"預測錯的時候總是很興奮,因為這意味著還有東西要學,你的理論不夠用。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

錯了就得回去改理論,改到能對上為止。

小行星裡躺著別人家的地核

主小行星帶在火星和木星之間。那裡的物質是太陽系形成時留下的殘骸,不是從外面飛進來的。研究它的價值在於,那是構成地球和其他行星的原始材料,以及這些材料在太陽系歷史上如何被重新分配。

小行星大致分兩類。一類是古老天體,從太陽系形成時的物質盤裡吸積出來,此後基本沒變過。它們之間有碰撞,撞出來的碎片散開,你從軌道上能看出來這五十顆原本是同一顆。另一類她更感興趣:那些本該長成行星、但中途被撞碎的物件的殘骸。

太陽系早期有一批叫星子(planetesimal)的候選行星,形成時能量很足,有足夠時間完成分化,重的沉下去形成核,輕的浮上來形成幔和殼。然後它們在大碰撞裡被徹底打碎,碎片至今還飄在小行星帶裡。所以那些石頭裡,有的是一塊幔,有的是一塊核,有的是一塊殼。

人類從來沒有直接看到過任何一顆行星的核,也沒見過深部地幔。地幔物質會沿著火山上來一點,我們能看到的只是很小一部分。那些碎片提供了一個視窗,讓你能看到類似地球核幔的東西長什麼樣,前提是它還得在太空裡被輻照幾十億年。

這裡有個方法論上的現實。小行星太多了,單個盯住一顆解決不了大問題,絕大多數研究是統計性的:測幾千顆、幾十萬顆的成分,看這種成分的大石頭有多少、那種成分的小石頭有多少,把整個帶的統計特徵拼出來,再拿去和太陽系形成的數值模擬結果對照。

望遠鏡對小行星的分辨能力很有限。大部分個體太小,看不清細節。能做的分類也停留在很粗的層面:亮不亮,光譜偏紅還是偏藍,有沒有矽酸鹽的特徵吸收。我們知道太陽系是從什麼材料形成的,然後拿這個先驗知識去給它們歸類。她說這裡還有巨大的空白,尤其是這些表面在太空環境裡如何變化,基本沒搞清楚。

至於在小行星帶裡飛行難不難,答案是比想象中容易。那片區域物質總量很大,但空間極其空曠。真正的麻煩是有些小行星壓根沒有實心結構。有些是"碎石堆"(rubble pile),一堆物質靠微弱引力勉強聚在一起。你要落上去,得先搞清楚踩的是岩石還是沙堆。

已經有人去過並且把表面的物質舀回來了,正在實驗室裡分析。還有任務要去一顆疑似核碎片的物體上著陸,搞清楚它到底是什麼。

阿波菲斯會從比同步衛星更近的地方掠過

小行星撞地球的風險是真實的。德克利爾說,我們還沒有把所有的近地天體都編目,還在努力追蹤更多,而漏掉一顆的後果可能是災難性的。

她提到阿波菲斯(Apophis)。這顆小行星一度被認為在 2029 年有相當機率撞上地球,2036 年還有一次機會。後續研究排除了撞擊可能,但它會靠得非常近。

"它會從地球和月球之間距離的十分之一處掠過,據說比某些地球同步通訊衛星還近。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

弗裡德曼在這裡插了一段黑色幽默:真要有小行星衝地球來,科學界和政府大概會一路說"沒事,只是擦肩而過",直到最後一刻才說"算錯了"。

德克利爾沒有反駁這個玩笑的合理性。追蹤這類天體確實困難,不確定性很大,觀測弧段短的時候誤差範圍可以寬得嚇人。

能不能像電影裡那樣派個人上去裝核彈?理論上有。如果提前五年發現,根據天體大小和需要偏移的量,也許能推它一把。但所有情況都夠用的方案並不存在。而且怎麼操作高度依賴這顆小行星的性質:實心物體和碎石堆是兩碼事。你在碎石堆中間引爆一顆炸彈,炸開的碎塊可能又靠引力重新聚攏,那就白乾了。

弗裡德曼從機器人角度補了一刀。他提到 MIT 的 Russ Tedrick 帶的 DARPA 機器人挑戰賽團隊,全世界最聰明的一批人幹了好幾年,花了幾百萬美元,最後的成果是一段在 YouTube 上瘋傳的"機器人摔倒合集"。雙足機器人在不平整地面上依然很吃力。而在小行星上遠端操作,通訊延遲和噪聲讓情況更接近那些失敗的場景。控制精度能到 SpaceX 火箭回收那個水平,才有戲。而且這種事不該派人去,應該全交給機器人。

他對這件事的期待是長期的:一兩百年後,太陽系裡到處是小型探測器,有的遠距離拍照,有的著陸,源源不斷往回送資料。德克利爾同意這個方向。她提到 NASA 的思路正在變化,過去是攢一個大型任務把所有事都幹完,測試做到極致,失敗率壓到最低。現在立方星(CubeSat)技術讓造衛星和發射都便宜了,可以造一百個,每個只幹一件事,分別扔到不同的小行星上。這是一種分散式的科學。

一塊在太空裡被磨圓的肥皂

奧陌陌(Oumuamua)是第一個被確認來自太陽系外的訪客。它的兩個特徵讓所有模型都為難。

一是形狀。太陽系裡自然形成的天體不會長成那樣細長的條狀,我們對球形的偏離通常很小。二是它在離開太陽系的路上加速了,一開始沒人能解釋。

德克利爾給出的兩個假說都屬於冰塊。一種是從某個外星系的類冥王星天體上被撞下來的氮冰塊,那顆天體被什麼東西撞碎,其中一塊飄進了我們的太陽系。另一種是"失敗的太陽系":分子云坍縮時質量不夠,沒形成恆星和行星,只留下一堆氫冰的團塊,其中一塊被丟擲來,路過這裡。

兩種解釋機制相通。冰塊經過近日點後被太陽加熱,氫或氮從朝向太陽的那一面昇華,產生反衝,這就是加速度的來源。形狀也是同一個機制塑造的:

"一塊肥皂一開始接近球形,你天天用它,最後會剩下又長又薄的一片,因為它被磨損了。同理,冰物質不斷從表面昇華,它就會變得又長又薄,然後加速飛出太陽系。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

在科學上,她的立場很清楚。作為科學家她不能說"我排除了外星造物"這個可能性,因為沒有反證。但她同時援引薩根的原則:非凡的主張需要非凡的證據。既然有能自洽解釋的天然機制,把原因歸給外星人就需要極強的理由。

弗裡德曼的遺憾是另一回事。他覺得這東西從黑暗裡衝出來,被我們瞥了一眼就走了,太浪費。宇宙裡最省力的星際旅行方式,就是讓東西自己飛過來。它可能來自另一個行星系,可能帶來我們從未見過的一組材料,可能告訴我們別的行星系統怎麼構成。而我們沒有準備好,只能看著它離開。

好訊息是這類探測正在系統化。天文學界在推進"時域天文學",目標是全天空、全波段、不間斷地監視。基於奧陌陌和鮑裡索夫這兩次的教訓,下一次再有東西闖進來,該用哪些望遠鏡、能不能臨時發射一個快速響應任務,都可以提前想好。

弗裡德曼由此想到一個更寬的問題:如果宇宙裡真有別的文明,我們最可能先看到的是他們的太空垃圾,或者中繼節點、路標這類工程系統的產物,一堆本身沒有智慧、但強烈暗示智慧存在的東西。我們找外星生命時,也許不該只盯著"能交流的智慧體"。

德克利爾的反駁很鋒利:正因為我們不知道外星人的路標長什麼樣,尋找智慧產物反而更難識別。而做理論模型的人太擅長髮明解釋,奧陌陌那麼反常,樣本量只有一,我們卻總能湊出一個漂亮的天然機制,然後心安理得地選最簡單那個。

科學家太擅長給異常現象找解釋了

弗裡德曼講了個故事。蘋果的首席設計師喬納森·伊維(Jony Ive)說,一個想法還在嬰兒期時他不會告訴喬布斯,因為喬布斯會一腳踩過去,說這主意很蠢。

他把科學界比作喬布斯。科學方法這件武器太強,強到會碾碎那些還站不住的異常證據。奧陌陌這種級別的異常,我們只觀測到一個,沒法做統計,科學方法一上來就把它的特殊性消解掉了。

德克利爾承認這個張力是真的。科學方法的懷疑主義大部分時候是好事,否則我們會整天相信各種荒唐東西。但要求那麼高的驗證標準,代價是偶爾會錯過真正有意思的東西,因為它沒法被驗證三次。

她補充了一個自己觀察到的現象,這次批評的物件是同行:2020 年新冠疫情期間,她的一些同事讓她很失望。太多人用權威的口吻說話,而不是用好奇的口吻。她認為那一年病毒學和生物學做出了極出色的工作,但對外溝通時"居高臨下"遠多於"激發興趣",這是讓人沮喪的。科學介面對不確定性時,本來就該邊承認不知道、邊把已有的資料擺出來,而不是裝作什麼都清楚。

弗裡德曼說,那百分之一的猜測是有價值的,它展示了一個人作為人的真實和好奇。我們終究是一群對周圍世界好奇的猿類的後代。

德克利爾從這裡切回自己的領域,說出了一件挺誠實的事:行星科學和天文學有一個特殊之處,好壞兩面都有。它不直接影響人類。我們不是在研究病毒傳播,也不是在研究可能摧毀城市的火山。所以這個領域可以更玩心一些,允許更多的猜測,猜錯了也不會有人因此喪命。

弗裡德曼接過話頭往 AI 上引:在 AI 領域,他擔心自己這行人太急於"把開關撥到開啟看看會發生什麼",有時候應該更謹慎。

三本都不好讀的書

德克利爾從童年起就瘋狂讀書,主要是小說,一直沒停。她推薦了三本,先宣告沒有一本是輕鬆讀物。

第一本是納博科夫的《微暗的火》(Pale Fire)。這本書形式上是一首長詩,前面有一段序言,正文是詩,後面跟著大段註釋。你讀到中途才會意識到,整本書其實是一部小說。故事藏在詩和註釋的縫隙裡,慢慢浮出來,最後顯出一個極其迷人的角色和這個角色運轉的頭腦。

吸引她的是那個形式:一本小說同時是一道智力拼圖,答案在閱讀過程中一點點展開。她後來找到了很多類似寫法的作家,當代的代表是石黑一雄,幾乎每本都是緩慢揭示,書裡沒發生什麼大事,你就是想讀下去,想知道他到底在慢慢給你揭示一個什麼樣的真相。

第二本是里爾克。他主要寫詩,那組《杜伊諾哀歌》對她個人情感上的衝擊很大,而且和天文學有某種關聯。她講得很坦白:

"我們每個人都是獨自走完一生的,每個個體的人類存在裡都有一種深切的孤獨。我懷疑我被天文學吸引,一部分原因就是太空那種浩瀚、空曠、荒涼,讓內心的孤獨變得可以接受。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

里爾克把人類存在的荒涼和孤獨轉化成某種喜悅的東西,某種幾乎有意義的東西。

弗裡德曼接了一段:從工程角度看,我們對自己內部的孤獨還遠沒有探索完。他希望造出幫助人探索自身孤獨的 AI 系統。愛和友誼或許就是這麼一個東西:兩個孤獨的生物在一個極短暫的時間裡互相確認對方存在過,雖然這種連線相對兩個意識之間真正可能達到的深度而言還很淺。

第三本是奧爾加·格魯申(Olga Grushin)的《蘇哈諾夫的夢境生活》(The Dream Life of Sukhanov)。她講到這一刻才意識到,這又是一本緩慢揭示的書。一個俄羅斯父親在逐漸失去理智的過程中和自己、和自己的過去和解。從頭就能看出這個走向,她希望這不算劇透。

三本都很重。她說自己實在沒有更輕鬆的可以推薦,石黑一雄已經算這批裡最輕的了。

把技術當研究物件,而不只是工具

弗裡德曼問她會給一個仰望星空的年輕人什麼建議。

她先說不打算給人生層面的建議,然後給了一條非常具體的、她自己入行前沒意識到的經驗:你研究的問題和你使用的技術,兩件事的重要性可能相當。

如果你對某個問題極有興趣,但解決它必須使用的技術手段對你來說枯燥,你的工作會很痛苦,哪怕那個問題再激動人心。反過來,如果手上的技術本身讓你興奮,你每天都是開心的。

"我痴迷太陽系,也喜歡望遠鏡,喜歡處理資料,喜歡琢磨望遠鏡的新用法,所以我找到了這個咬合點。但假如我感興趣的是太陽系的動力學演化,軌道的長期變化,那我得做另一類工作,而那種工作我根本不覺得有意思。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

她說這聽起來是個不浪漫的考慮,把技術手段當成要考察的物件。但它對職業幸福感和科學生涯的影響非常深刻。

弗裡德曼把這條建議提煉了一層:那些瑣碎的、重複的、要耗費數年的、充滿失敗的活兒,如果你能從中找到樂趣,那才是選對路的訊號。人們談夢想、談熱愛、談目標,說的都是那個宏大的東西,但真正把人送到那裡的,是每天把時間投進去的那些無聊部分。如果那些無聊部分對你不無聊,你過的就是一種激動人心的生活。

他引用大衛·福斯特·華萊士的說法,生活的關鍵是不被無聊困住。他覺得這不現實,但你應該找到一個領域,在那裡每件事都讓你興奮。

火燒還是冰凍

弗裡德曼唸了羅伯特·弗羅斯特的《火與冰》。有人說世界將終結於火,有人說終結於冰。他問德克利爾選哪個。

她選火。

"我一直喜歡混亂。東西慢慢變冷、停下來、死掉,這個想法太壓抑了,比爆炸、燃燒、被熔岩覆蓋壓抑得多。那種活動本身,在某種意義上賦予了它更多意義。"(凱瑟琳·德克利爾)

這個選擇和她的研究物件是一致的。她喜歡處於極端的那些天體,不怎麼在意地球這種宜居的好地方。金星有硫酸雲,地表熱得離譜、壓強驚人,可能現在還有火山活動。木衛一是太陽系最狂暴的地方。她的判斷是,如果一套解釋行星和衛星的框架能把這些極端的傢伙也裝進去,那才算真的透過了檢驗,才真的叫理解。

她也談到了火星殖民。她相信只要人類存續得夠久,沒被自己或者別的東西滅掉,終有一天能殖民其他行星,但不會在她有生之年。去一趟待幾個月是可以想象的,殖民是另一回事。

溫度、氣壓、輻射,這些障礙她認為都能靠技術解決。她把關鍵問題指向自給自足:你得靠火星上已有的資源生產食物、生產氧氣,讓人能持續活下去。帶過去的一切都是有限的。從"帶齊所有生存物資去訪問"到"真的住下來",中間隔著一道巨大的鴻溝。

弗裡德曼提了個細節:火星上最容易搞的蛋白質來源是養昆蟲。在建立起農業體系之前,最省事的動物蛋白大概就是蟲子。他說這畫面不太美好,怕蟲的人得做好心理準備。德克利爾笑著接話說,也許該有人去搞抗輻射昆蟲的基因工程。他補了一句自嘲:他在奧斯汀做過一次過敏測試,除了蟑螂,什麼蟲子都不過敏。這下有了不去火星第一梯隊的正當理由。

玩笑歸玩笑,她本人是會去的。她說自己喜歡挑戰,喜歡那種死亡機率不太低的事情,因為這會讓她更珍惜活著。冥想死亡讓人更懂得生命的價值,而當這種冥想被任務的難度強行擺在你面前時,她享受那個過程。大多數人不是這樣,但她喜歡那種純粹為了探索而出發的艱難旅程,去向未知,去看看人的心智和身體到底能到什麼邊界。她說,不然這一趟旅程是為了什麼。

她補了一個來處。她成長於蘇聯,冷戰和太空競賽在文化裡留下的那種對太空的熱愛,浸潤過她。父親是科學家,她從小就覺得人類向星辰進發這件事令人興奮。她不確定今天的美國文化裡這種情緒還剩多少,馬斯克把它拉回來了一些,火箭、出發、往外走的那種興奮。

金星上那點磷化氫

2020 年 9 月,一個團隊宣佈在金星大氣中探測到磷化氫。這條新聞當年刷遍全網。他們聲稱試遍了所有能想到的非生物機制,都產不出這個量,而生物過程會產生磷化氫。推理鏈條就這麼搭起來了。

德克利爾的判斷很直接:她個人不相信那次探測本身成立。

理由是訊號太弱。只探測到一個吸收線,為了把這麼弱的訊號從資料裡挖出來,得用

理由是訊號太弱。只探測到一個吸收線,為了把這麼弱的訊號從資料裡挖出來,得用上一整套非常複雜的處理手段。這麼處理過的結果,有可能是噪聲,有可能是被汙染的資料。它沒有達到歷史上被稱為"探測"所應有的嚴謹程度。

弗裡德曼把問題推到更一般的一層:從遠處讀出一顆行星大氣的成分,然後據此下關於生命的結論,這條路本身就很滑。她同意,說那次聲稱從探測走向生命的推理,遭到了大量批評。而更靠前的一環,探測本身,就已經不牢靠。

不過她還是給了一句溫和的話:不管怎樣,人類顯然極其渴望找到生命。這一點從訊息傳開時的反應就能看出來。

薄薄一層膜,和它下面的一切

弗裡德曼問她,如果以系外科學家的視角給地球寫一份一頁紙的考察報告,會寫什麼。她的第一反應還是火山,然後講出了一個行星科學裡挺根本的困境。

望遠鏡和飛船能看到的,只是星球外面薄薄的一層皮。絕大部分體積完全夠不著。你最多往下鑽一米,那還是皮。地球也一樣,人類挖不深,最深的那口井相對地球半徑來說微不足道。

所以行星科學很大一部分工作,是盯著表面看,然後反推下面在發生什麼。這是一種間接的偵查,靠零散的線索拼一個看不見的內部。

從這個角度看地球,最有說服力的證據就是板塊構造。把火山的位置畫在地圖上,它們排成幾條線,那些線勾勒出板塊的邊界。夏威夷那一串火山從西北向東南逐個變年輕,能反推出板塊在一塊固定的深部地幔柱上方緩慢移動。這些規律人類自己花了很久才想明白,一個外星觀察者只要有足夠長的觀測時間,也能從火山分佈裡讀出同樣的結論。

而這件事在太陽系裡是獨一份。其他行星沒有板塊構造。木衛一那麼猛烈的火山活動也不是板塊構造,它是岩漿在完整而冰冷的地殼上直接打洞衝出來,熱管火山。兩件事看起來都是火山,底層機制完全不同。

德克利爾說到這裡,把這條線索和宜居性接上了。板塊構造之所以重要,是因為它讓地表物質持續迴圈。新的物質從內部被帶上來,舊的物質被拖下去,養分供應不斷重新整理。沒有迴圈的地表會走向停滯,所有能反應的東西都反應完,生命能榨取的能量也就見底了。所以在評估一顆行星是否宜居時,板塊構造是一個分量很重的指標。

弗裡德曼在這段對話裡插了一句玩笑,說外星人大概一眼就能看出地球上有城市,因為硬邊和直角違背自然物理。德克利爾沒有完全接下這個推論。她提醒說,真要按生物量或者個體數量來排序,人類在城市之外的那些東西面前排得很靠後。微生物、昆蟲、魚類,數量上都是壓倒性的。城市顯眼,因為它的形狀不自然;但顯眼和重要是兩件事。

一層皮之外,全是未知

整個對話裡,德克利爾反覆回到同一個方法論上的謙卑。

行星科學能觀測的只是表面,能取樣的是表面,能鑽的深度相對於星球半徑可以忽略。而關於內部的一切,靠的都是間接推斷,靠的是把表面的現象和物理模型對起來,再找證據驗證。

這種侷限反而給了她研究的樂趣。她最喜歡的那些天體,恰恰是資料最少、問題最大、還停留在粗線條上的地方。木衛一幾十年前就被探測器拍過,但今天的望遠鏡還在給它添新資訊。外太陽系的衛星,絕大多數連像樣的照片都沒有,只有遠處的光譜,一個偏紅或偏藍的訊號,和一堆待解釋的異常。

她把這種狀態稱為"發現空間"。未知越多,空間越大。行星我們已經圍著轉了半個多世紀,衛星才剛剛開始被當作目的地來打量。

所以當被問到最喜歡哪顆行星時,她的答案還是繞回衛星。她承認這對行星不公平。火星上有沒有過生命是個巨大的問題,人類往那兒送了一堆機器人去追問。但衛星上能問的問題是更底層的那種:這些世界怎麼運作,為什麼每一顆都長成了和別人不一樣的樣子,為什麼同樣的物理規律在不同的初始條件下能長出這麼多種結局。

關於地球生命的起源,她的態度同樣是承認不知道。她提到,我們甚至不清楚生命在地球上獨立起源過幾次,一次還是一千次。宇宙裡別處有沒有生命,更是沒有任何實際資訊。她談到德雷克方程時說,自己大學一年級第一次看到這個方程時覺得荒唐,把一堆未知量擺在一起,好像把無知寫成了一個公式。現在她的理解變了:這個方程的價值在於提供了一套語言,讓人類能就這個話題有條理地對話,把影響外星文明數量的因素一項項拆開。它本來就不是用來算出答案的。

弗裡德曼問她願不願意押注。她說願意押有外星人,但不願意押自己這輩子能拿到確鑿證據。他對"確鑿"這個詞有意見,覺得人類太自戀,很可能即使外星智慧就在眼前也識別不出來。樹木、岩石、思想、意識本身,都可能以我們無法感知的時間尺度和物理尺度在運作。他擔心人類會被自己的感知框架限制住,只認得和我們類似的、以聲音和文字交流的智慧形態。

德克利爾的回應比較冷靜。她說,正因如此,尋找智慧產物反而更難,因為我們不知道產物該長什麼樣。而尋找智慧生命的好處在於,萬一撞上了,我們至少有更大的機率認出來。這個判斷裡沒有樂觀,只有對識別門檻的估計。

四個小時裡那些沒說完的

這場對話橫跨的內容很雜。冥王星的身份、衛星的分類、潮汐加熱怎麼熔掉一顆星球的內部、木衛一的熔岩幕和二氧化硫雪、木衛二海底的岩石與水的介面、土衛二南極噴向太空的海洋物質、土衛六大氣里正在進行的有機化學、奧陌陌那塊被磨成細長條的冰、小行星帶裡那些別人家的地核碎片、阿波菲斯擦著同步衛星軌道飛過去、金星那點站不住的磷化氫、三本不好讀的小說、弗羅斯特的《火與冰》。

貫穿這些話題的是一種相當一致的態度:對分類體系不在意,對未知保持興奮,對異常現象先試著用已知物理解釋,解釋不通就老老實實承認不知道。她不給自己的領域貼高大上的標籤,反而說這個領域不直接影響人類,所以可以更玩心一點。

她也不掩飾這套方法的代價。科學方法太強,強到會碾碎還站不住的證據。奧陌陌那種級別的異常,我們只有一個樣本,做不了統計,於是天然解釋一出來,特殊性就被消解掉了。這談不上科學家的惡意,它是方法的固有屬性。大部分時候這是好事,否則我們會整天相信荒唐東西。但偶爾,它會讓你錯過真正有意思的東西,因為它沒法被驗證三次。

她的處理方式是把兩條線同時留著。該嚴謹的地方嚴謹,該好奇的地方別裝。她批評 2020 年一些同行面對疫情時用的是權威口吻而非好奇口吻,說科學介面對不確定性時本該邊承認不知道、邊把已有的資料擺出來。

她也說了自己為什麼喜歡那些極端的天體。地球這種宜居的好地方不是她的偏好所在,金星、木衛一這種又熱又毒又暴烈的地方才讓她著迷。她的理由很硬核:一套解釋行星和衛星的框架,如果能把最極端的案例也裝進去,那才算真的透過了檢驗。舒服的樣本不考驗理論,極端的樣本才考驗。

卡爾·薩根在那期節目的結尾留了一段話,說的是土衛六:那些分子像天降的甘露一樣下了四十億年,可能還完好地待在那裡,深度凍結,等著來自地球的化學家。這句話恰好把德克利爾整個工作的動機概括了。太陽系裡那些最遙遠、最寒冷、最沒人去的地方,可能儲存著最原始的資訊,只是我們暫時還沒有工具去取。

她講這些的時候,語氣裡沒有那種科普常見的煽動。她只是把一個個具體的問題攤開:這顆衛星的熱從哪來,那片海的底部有沒有岩石,這個異常的加速度能不能用昇華解釋,這條光譜線夠不夠強。這些問題都很小,但每一個後面都掛著一整片空白。她說自己在這些空白裡待得很舒服,因為那裡還沒有人下過結論。

談到將來,她給出的畫面也很樸素。小型的、便宜的探測器,一個只做一件事,造很多個,撒出去。有人管這叫分散式的科學,她大概更願意說,這就是在有限技術條件下能採集到最多資訊的方式。沒有宏大敘事,只有更多的樣本、更長的觀測、更細的光譜。

至於人類會不會成為多行星物種,她的回答保持了她一貫的分寸感。會,只要時間夠長,只要沒被什麼先滅掉。不會在她有生之年。去一趟和住下來之間隔著鴻溝,鴻溝的名字叫自給自足。

普通人可以怎麼用這些

  • 給孩子解釋冥王星時,別隻說"因為它太小"。真正的原因是它沒有清空自己的軌道。這個標準同樣能解釋穀神星兩百多年裡在行星、小行星、矮行星之間來回換身份,也能解釋為什麼國際天文學聯合會那套定義連繫外行星都排除了。
  • 關注探測任務時,把注意力從行星分一點給衛星。木衛一、木衛二、土衛二、土衛六這幾個名字背後是太陽系探索的下一個前沿,未來二三十年的重大發現很可能出在這裡。
  • 看到一條"發現生命"的新聞時,先問兩個問題:探測本身有多強,從探測到生命的推理跨了幾步。金星磷化氫那次,第一步就不牢。
  • 如果你在考慮做科研,把"用什麼技術"和"研究什麼問題"放在同等位置來評估。技術手段天天要用,問題只是一面旗。旗再漂亮,每天的活兒讓你痛苦,這條路走不長。
  • 想找自己真正適合的方向,可以觀察自己在哪類"無聊"的事上不覺得無聊。重複的、瑣碎的、要耗上數年的那些環節,如果你能從中找到樂趣,那大概就是你可以長期待下去的地方。
  • 讀奧陌陌這類報道時,留意"天然解釋"和"外星解釋"各自需要多少額外假設。薩根那條原則好用:非凡的主張需要非凡的證據。同時也別丟掉那百分之一的好奇,因為科學方法太擅長消解異常,偶爾會碾碎真東西。
  • 判斷一個天體是否值得關注,試著繞開"它叫什麼"。一個世界有火山、有大氣、有海洋、有地質活動,它叫行星還是叫衛星,跟它能告訴我們什麼沒有關係。
  • 對任何關於內部的結論保持一點距離。望遠鏡只看得見表面那一層皮,剩下的一切都是推斷。別人說得再確定,也可以問一句:這個結論是靠哪幾條間接線索拼出來的。
文稿來自公開 Kaggle 資料集(rajneesh231/lex-fridman-podcast-transcript),為早期自動轉錄存檔,可能存在識別錯誤。
The following is a conversation with Catherine Duclir, a professor of Planetary Science and Astronomy at Caltech. Her research is on the surface environments, atmospheres, and thermochemical histories of the planets and moons in our solar system. Quick mention of our sponsors, Fundrise, Blinkist, ExpressVPN, and Magic Spoon. Check them out in the description to support this podcast. As a side note, let me say that this conversation and a few others, quite big ones actually, that are coming up were filmed in a studio where I was trying to outsource some of the work. Like all experiments, it was a learning experience for me. It had some positives and negatives. Ultimately, I decided to return back to doing it the way I was doing before, but hopefully with a team who can help me out and work with me long term. The point is, I will always keep challenging myself, trying stuff out, learning, growing, and hopefully improving over time. My goal is to surround myself with people who love what they do, are amazing at it, and are obsessed with doing the best work of their lives. To me, there's nothing more energizing and fun than that. In fact, I'm currently hiring a few folks to work with me on various small projects. If this is something of interest to you, go to lexfreedman.com slash hiring. That's where I will always post opportunities for working with me. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast, and here is my conversation with Catherine DeClear. Why is Pluto not a planet anymore? Does this upset you or has justice finally been served? So I get asked this all the time. I think all planetary scientists get asked about Pluto, especially by kids who, we just love for Pluto to still be a planet. But the reality is, when we first discovered Pluto, it was a unique object in the outer solar system. And we thought we were adding a planet to the inventory of planets that we had. And then over time, it became clear that Pluto was not a unique, large object in the outer solar system, that there were actually many of these. And as we started discovering more and more of them, we realized that the concept of Pluto being a planet didn't make sense unless maybe we added all the rest of them as planets. So you could have imagined actually a different direction that this could have gone where all the other objects that were discovered in that belt, or at least all the ones, let's say, above a certain size, became planets instead of Pluto being declassified. But we're now aware of many objects out there in the outer solar system and what's called the Kuiper Belt that are of the same size or in some cases even larger than Pluto. So the declassification was really just a realization that it was not in the same category as the other planets in the solar system. And we basically needed to refine our definition in such a way that took into account that there's this belt of debris out there in the outer solar system of things with a range of sizes. Is there a hope for clear categorization of what is a planet and not, or is it all just gray area? When you study planets, when you study moons, satellites of those planets, is there lines that could be cleanly drawn or is it just a giant mess? Is it all like a fluid, let's say not mess, but it's like fluid of what is a planet, what is a moon of a planet, what is debris, what is asteroids, all that kind of... So there are technically clear definitions that were set down by the IAU, the International Astronomy Union. Is it size related? Like what are the parameters based on? So the parameters are that it has to orbit the sun, which was essentially to rule out satellites. Of course, this was a not very forward thinking definition because it technically means that all extrasolar planets according to that definition are not planets. So it has to orbit the sun. It has to be large enough that its gravity has caused it to become spherical in shape, which also applies to satellites and also applies to Pluto. The third part of the definition is the thing that really rules out everything else, which is that it has to have cleared out its orbital path. And because Pluto orbits in a belt of material, it doesn't satisfy that stipulation. Why didn't you clear out the path? It's not big enough to knock everybody out of the way. And this actually is not the first time it has happened. So Ceres, when it was discovered, Ceres is the largest asteroid in the asteroid belt, and it was originally considered a planet when it was first discovered. And it went through exactly the same story, history, where people actually realized that it was just one of many asteroids in the asteroid belt region, and then it got declassified to an asteroid, and now it's back to a dwarf planet. So there is a lot of reclassification. So to me, as somebody who studies solar system objects, I just personally don't care. My level of interest in something has nothing to do with what it's classified as. So my favorite objects in the solar system are all moons, and frequently when I talk about them, I refer to them as planets because to me they are planets. They have volcanoes, they have geology, they have atmospheres, they're planet like worlds. And so the distinction is not super meaningful to me, but it is important just for having a general framework for understanding and talking about things to have a precise definition. So you don't have a special romantic appreciation of a moon versus a planet versus an asteroid. It's just an object that flies out there and it doesn't really matter what the categorization is. Because there's movies about asteroids and stuff, and then there's movies about the moon, whatever, it's a really good movie. There's something about moons that's almost like an outlier. You think of a moon as a thing that's the secret part, and the planet is the more vanilla regular part. None of that? You don't have any of that? No, I actually do. I really, satellites are, the moons are my favorite things in the solar system. I think part of what you're saying, I agree from maybe a slightly different perspective, which is from the perspective of exploration, we've spent a lot of time sending spacecraft missions to planets. We had a mission to Jupiter, we had a mission to Saturn, we have plenty of missions to Mars and missions to Venus. I think the exploration of the moons in the outer solar system is the next frontier of solar system exploration. The belt of debris, just real quick, that's out there. Is there something incredible to be discovered there? Again, we tend to focus on the planets and the moons, but it feels like there's probably a lot of stuff out there and it probably, what is it? It's like a garbage collector from outside of the solar system, isn't it? Like, doesn't it protect from other objects that kind of fly in and what, it just feels like it's a cool, you know when you like walk along the beach and look for stuff and like look for, it feels like that's that kind of place where you can find cool weird things. Or I guess in our conversation today, when we think about tools and what science is studying, is there something to be studied out there or we just don't have maybe the tools yet or there's nothing to be found? There's absolutely a lot to be found. So the material that's out there is remnant material from the formation of our solar system. We don't think it comes from outside the solar system, at least not most of it. But there are so many fascinating objects out there and I think what you fit on is exactly right that we just don't have the tools to study them in detail. But we can look out there and we can see there are different species of ice on their surface that tells us about, you know, the chemical composition of the disk that formed our solar system. Some of these objects are way brighter than they should be, meaning they have some kind of geological activity. People have hypothesized that some of these objects have subsurface oceans. You could even stretch your imagination and say some of those oceans could be habitable. But we can't get very detailed information about them because they're so far away. And so I think if any of those objects were in the inner solar system, it would be studied intently and would be very interesting. So would you be able to design a probe in that like very dense debris field, be able to like hop from one place to another? Is that just outside of the realm of like how would you even design devices or sensors that go out there and take pictures and land? Do you have to land to truly understand a little piece of rock or can you understand it from remotely, like fly up close and remotely observe? You can learn quite a lot from just a flyby and that's all we're currently capable of doing in the outer solar system. The New Horizons mission is a recent example which flew by Pluto and then they had searched for another object that was out there in the Kuiper Belt, any object that was basically somewhere that they could deflect their trajectory to actually fly by. And so they did fly by another object out there in the Kuiper Belt and they take pictures and they do what they can do. And if you've seen the images from that mission of Pluto, you can see just how much detail we have compared to just the sort of reddish dot that we knew of before. So you do get an amazing amount of information actually from just essentially a high speed flyby. It always makes me sad to think about flybys that we might be able to, we might fly by a piece of rock, take a picture and think, oh, that looks pretty and cool and whatever. And that you could study certain like composition of the surface and so on. But it's actually teeming with life and we won't be able to see it at first. And it's sad. Cause you know, like when you're on a deserted island and you wave your hands and the thing flies by and you're trying to get their attention and they probably do the same, well in their own way, bacteria probably, right? But and we miss it. I don't know, some reason it makes me, it's the FOMO, it's fear of missing out. It makes me sad that there might be life out there and we don't, we're not in touch with it. We're not talking. Yeah. Well, okay. A sad pause, a Russian philosophical pause. Okay. What are the tools available to us to study planets and their moons? Oh my goodness. That is such a big question. So among the field of astronomy, so planetary science broadly speaking, well, it falls kind of at the border of astronomy, geology, climate science, chemistry, and even biology. So it's kind of on the border of many things, but part of it falls under the heading of astronomy. And among the things that you can study with telescopes, like solar system moons and planets, the solar system is really unique in that we can actually send spacecraft missions to the objects and study them in detail. And so I think that's, that's the kind of type of tool that is, that people are most aware of, that's most popularized, these amazing NASA missions that either you fly by the object, you orbit the object, you land on the object, potentially you can talk about digging into it, drilling, trying to detect tectonic tremors on its surface. The types of tools that I use are primarily telescopes and so I, my background is in astrophysics and so I actually got into solar system science from astronomy, not from, you know, a childhood fascination with spacecraft missions, which is actually what a lot of planetary scientists became planetary scientists because of childhood fascination with spacecraft missions, which is kind of interesting for me to talk to people and see that trajectory. I kind of came at it from the fascination with telescopes angle. So you like telescopes, not rockets, or at least when I was a kid it was looking at the stars and playing with telescopes that really fascinated me and that's how I got into this. But telescopes, it's amazing how much detail and how much information you can get from telescopes today. You can resolve individual cloud features and watch them kind of sheer out in the atmosphere of Titan. You can literally watch volcanoes on Io change from day to day as the lava flows expand. So and then, you know, spectroscopy, you get compositional information on all these things and it's, when I started doing solar system astronomy, I was surprised by how much detail and how much information you can get even from Earth and then as well as from orbit like the Hubble Space Telescope or the James Webb. So with the telescope, you can, I mean, how much information can you get about volcanoes, about storms, about sort of weather, just so we kind of get a sense, like what a resolution we're talking about? Well, in terms of resolution, so at a, you know, on a given night, if I go and take a picture of Io and its volcanoes, you can sometimes see at least a dozen different volcanoes. You can see the infrared emission coming off of them and resolve them, separate them from one another on the surface and actually watch how the heat coming off of them changes with time. And I think this time variability aspect is one of the big advantages we get from telescopes. So you send a spacecraft mission there and you get an incredible amount of information over a very short time period. But for some science questions, you need to observe something for 30 years, 40 years. Like let's say you want to look at the moon Titan, which has one of the most interesting atmospheres in the solar system. Its orbital period is 29, 30 years. And so if you want to look at how its atmospheric seasons work, you have to observe it over that long of a time period. And you're not going to do that with a spacecraft, but you can do it with telescopes. Can we just zoom in on certain things like, let's talk about Io, which is the moon of Jupiter. Right. Okay. It's so big. There's like volcanoes all over the place. It's from a distance. It's awesome. So can you tell me about this moon and you're sort of a scholar of many planets and moons, but that one kind of stood out to me. So why is that an interesting one? For so many reasons, but Io is the most volcanically active object in the solar system. It has hundreds of active volcanoes on it. It has volcanic plumes that go hundreds of kilometers up above its surface. It puts out more volume of magma per volcano than volcanoes on Earth today. But I think to me, the reason that it's most interesting is as a laboratory for understanding planetary processes. So one of the broad goals of planetary science is to put together a sort of more general and coherent framework for how planets work in general. Our current framework, you know, it started out very Earth centric. We start to understand how Earth volcanoes work. But then when you try to transport that to somewhere like Io that doesn't have an atmosphere, which has a very tenuous atmosphere, which makes a big difference for how the magma degasses, for something that's really small, for something that has a different heat source, for something that's embedded in another object's magnetic field, the kind of intuition we have from Earth doesn't apply. And so broadly, planetary science is trying to broaden that framework so that you have a kind of narrative that you can understand how each planet became different from every other planet. And I'm already making a mistake. When I say planet, I mean planets and moons. Like I said, I see the moons as planets. As planets. Yeah. I actually already noticed that you didn't introduce Io as the moon of Jupiter. You completely, you kind of ignored the fact that Jupiter exists. It's like, let's focus on this. Yeah. Okay. So, and you also didn't mention Europa, which I think is the, is that the most famous moon of Jupiter? Is that the one gets attention because it might have life? Exactly. Yeah. But to you, Io is also beautiful. What's the difference between volcanoes on Io versus Earth? You said atmosphere makes a difference. What the heat source plays a big role. So many of the moons in the outer solar system are heated from gravitationally by tidal heating. And I'm happy to describe what that is or, yeah, please, what's tidal? Yes. So tidal heating is, it's, if you want to understand and contextualize planets and moons, you have to understand their heat sources. So for Earth, we have radioactive decay in our interior as well as residual heat of formation. But for satellites, tidal heating plays a really significant role and in particular in driving geological activity on satellites and potentially making those subsurface oceans in places like Europa and Enceladus habitable. And so the way that that works is if you have multiple moons and their orbital periods are integer multiples of one another, that means that they're always encountering each other at the same point in the orbit. So if they were on just random orbits, they'd be encountering each other at random places and the gravitational effect between the two moons would be canceling out over time. But because they're always meeting each other at the same point in the orbit, those gravitational interactions add up coherently. And so that tweaks them into eccentric orbits. What's an eccentric orbit? So eccentric orbit or elliptical orbit, it just means noncircular, so a deviation from a circular orbit. And that means that for Io or Europa, at some points in their orbit, they're closer to Jupiter and at some points in their orbit, they're farther away. And so when they're closer, they're stretched out in a sense, but literally just not very stretched out, like a couple hundred meters, something like that. And then when they're farthest away, they're less stretched out. And so you actually have the shape of the object deforming over the course of the orbit. And these orbits are like just a couple of days. And so that, in the case of Io, that is literally sufficient friction in its mantle to melt the rock of its mantle. And that's what generates the magma. That's the source of the magma. Yeah. Okay. So why is, so Europa is, I thought there was like ice and oceans underneath kind of thing. So why is Europa not getting the friction? It is, it's just a little bit farther away from Jupiter. And then Ganymede is also in the orbital resonance. So it's a three object orbital resonance in the Jupiter system. But we have these sorts of orbital resonances all over the solar system and also in exoplanets. So for Europa, basically because it's farther from Jupiter, the effect is not as extreme, but you do still have heat generated in its interior in this way. And that may be driving, could be driving hydrothermal activity at the base of its ocean, which obviously would be a really valuable thing for life. Cool. So it's like heating up the ocean a little bit. Heating up the ocean a little bit. And specifically in these like hydrothermal vents where we see really interesting life evolve in the bottom of Earth's oceans. That's cool. Okay. So what's Io, what else? So we know the source is this friction, but there's no atmosphere. I'm trying to get a sense of what it's like if you and I were to visit Io, like what would is made of sulfur dioxide, and that you could have these kind of ash particles from the volcano and the sulfur dioxide would condense onto these particles, and you'd have sulfur dioxide snow coming out of these volcanic plumes. And there's not much light, though, right? So you wouldn't be able to, like, it would not make a good Instagram photo, because you have to, would you see the snow? Sure. There's light. It depends. Oh, okay. So you could, okay. It depends what angle you're looking at it, where the sun is, all the things like that. You know, the sunlight is much weaker, but it's still there. It's still there. And how big is Io in terms of gravity? Is it smaller? Is it a pretty small moon? It's quite a bit smaller than Earth anyway. It's smaller than Earth. Okay. Okay. Cool. So they float up for a little bit. So it floats. Wow. Yeah. No, you're right. That would be gorgeous. What else about Earth is interesting besides volcanoes? So plate tectonics. I didn't realize that that was a unique element of a planet in the solar system, because that, I wonder what, I mean, we experienced as human beings, it's quite painful because of earthquakes and all those kinds of things, but I wonder if there's nice features to it. Yeah. So coming back to habitability again, things like tectonics and plate tectonics are thought to play an important role in the surface being habitable. And that's because you have a way of recycling materials. So if you have a stagnant surface, everything, you know, you use up all the free oxygen, everything reacts until you no longer have reactants that life can extract energy from. And so if nothing's changing on your surface, you kind of reach this stagnation point. But something like plate tectonics recycles material, you bring up new fresh material from the interior, you bring down material that's up on the surface, and that can kind of refresh your nutrient supply, in a sense, or the sort of raw materials that the surface has to work with. So from a kind of astrobiologist perspective, looking at Earth, you would see that recycling of material because the plate tectonics, you would also see how much oxygen is in Earth's atmosphere. And between those two things, you would identify Earth as a reasonable candidate for a habitable environment in addition to, of course, the, you know, pleasant temperature and liquid water. But the abundance of oxygen and the plate tectonics both play a role as well. And also see like tiny dot satellites flying around and rockets. Well, sure, yes. I wonder if they would be able to, I really think about that, like, if aliens were to visit, and would they really see humans as the thing they should be focusing on? I think it would take a while, right? Because it's so obvious that that should, because there's like so much incredible, in terms of biomass, humans are a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction. There's like ants, they would probably detect ants, right? Or they probably would focus on the water and the fish because there's like a lot of water. I was surprised to learn that there's more species on land than there is in the sea. Like there's 90, I think 90 to 95% of the species are on land. Or on land? On land. Not in the sea? No. Not in the sea. Not in the sea, but no, the variety that like the branches created by evolution, apparently it's probably a good answer from evolutionary biology perspective, why land created so much diversity, but it did. So like the sea, there's so much not known about the sea, about the oceans, but it's not, it's not diversity friendly. What can I say? It needs to improve its diversity. Do you think the aliens would come, I mean, the first thing they would see is I suppose our cities, assuming that they had some idea of what a natural world looked like, they would see cities and say, these don't belong. Which of these many species created these? Yeah. I mean, there's, if I were to guess, it would, it's a good question. I don't know if you do this when you look at the telescope, whether you look at geometric shapes. Like if it's, cause to me like hard corners, like what do we think is engineered? Things that are like, have kind of straight lines and corners and so on, they would probably detect those in terms of buildings would stand out to them because that's, that goes against the basic natural physics of the world. But I don't know if the electricity and lights and so on, it could be, I honestly, it could be the plate tectonics. It could be like, that they're like the volcanoes that'd be okay. That's a source of heat. And then they would focus. They might literally, I mean, depending on how alien life forms are, they might notice the microorganisms before they notice the big, like notice the ant before the elephant. Cause like there's a lot more of them depending what they're measuring. We think like size matters, but maybe with their tools of measurement, they would look for quantity versus size. Like why focus on the big thing, focus on the thing that there's a lot of. And when they see humans, depending on their measurement devices, they might see we're made up of billions of organisms. Like the fact that we have, we're very human. We think we're one organism, but that may not be the case. They might see, in fact, they may also see like a human city as one organism. Like what is this thing that like, clearly this organism gets aroused at night because the lights go on and then, and then it like, it sleeps during the day. I don't know how, like the, what perspective you take on the city. Is there something interesting about earth or other planets in terms of weather patterns? So we talked a lot about volcanic patterns. Is there something else about weather that's interesting, like storms or variations in temperature, all those kinds of things? Yeah. So there's sort of every planet and moon has a kind of interesting and unique weather pattern. And those weather patterns are really, we don't have a good understanding of them. We don't even have a good understanding of the global circulation patterns of many of these atmospheres, why the storm systems occur. So the composition and occurrence of storms and clouds and these objects is another one of these kind of windows into the interior that I was talking about with surfaces. One of these ways that we can get perspective and what the composition is at the interior and how the circulation is working. So circulation will bring some species up from deeper in the atmosphere of the planet to some altitude that's a little bit colder and that species will condense out and form a cloud at that altitude. And we can detect in some cases what those clouds are composed of. But looking at where those occur can tell you how the circulation cells are, whether the atmospheric circulation is, say, coming up at the equator and going down at the poles or whether you have multiple cells in the atmosphere. And I mean, Jupiter's atmosphere is just insane. There's so much going on. You look at these pictures and there's all these vortices and antivortices and you have these different bands that are moving in opposite directions that may be giving you information about the deep, like deep in the atmosphere, physically deep properties of Jupiter's interior and circulation. What are these vortices? What's the basic material of the storms? It's condensed molecules from the atmosphere. So ammonia ice particles in the case of Jupiter, it's methane ice in the case of let's say Uranus and Neptune and other species, you can kind of construct a chemical model for which species can condense where. And so you see a cloud at a certain altitude within the atmosphere and you can make a guess at what that cloud is made of and sometimes measure it directly and different species make different colors as well. Oh, cool. Ice storms. Okay. I mean, the climate of Uranus has always been fascinating to me because it orbits on its side and it has a 42 year orbital period. And so, you know, with Earth, our seasons are because our equator is tipped just a little bit to the plane that we orbit in. So sometimes the sunlight's a little bit above the equator and sometimes it's a little bit below the equator. But on Uranus, it's like for 10 years, the sunlight is directly on the North Pole and then it's directly on the equator and then it's directly on the South Pole. And it's actually kind of amazing that the atmosphere doesn't look crazier than it does. But understanding how, taking again, like one of these extreme examples, if we can understand why that atmosphere behaves in the way it does, it's kind of a test of our understanding of how atmosphere is. So like heats up one side of the planet for 10 years and then freezes it the next, like, and that you're saying should probably lead to some chaos. And it doesn't. The fact that it doesn't tells you something about the atmosphere. So atmospheres have a property that surfaces don't have, which is that they can redistribute heat a lot more effectively. Right. So they have a stabilizing, like self regulating aspect to them that they're able to deal with extreme conditions. But predicting how that complex system unrolls is very difficult, as we know, about predicting the weather on Earth even. Oh, my goodness. Yeah. Even with the little variation we have on Earth. You know, people have tried to put together global circulation models. You know, we've done this for Earth. People have tried to do these for other planets as well. And it is a really hard problem. So Titan, for example, like I said, it's one of the best studied atmospheres in the solar system, and people have tried to make these global circulation models and actually predict what's going to happen moving into sort of the next season of Titan. And those predictions have ended up being wrong. And so then, you know, I don't know, it's always exciting when a prediction is wrong because it means that there's something more to learn, like your theory wasn't sufficient. And then you get to go back and learn something by how you have to modify the theory to make it fit. I'm excited by the possibility of one day there will be for various moons and planets, there will be like news programs reporting the weather with the fake confidence of like as if you can predict the weather. We talked quite a bit about planets and moons. Can we talk a little bit about asteroids? For sure. What is, what's an asteroid? And what kind of asteroids are there? So the asteroids, let's talk about just the restricted to the main asteroid belt, which is the region, it's a region of debris basically between Mars and Jupiter. And the, these sort of belts of debris throughout the solar system, the outer solar system, you know, the Kuiper belt that we talked about, the asteroid belt, as well as certain other populations where they accumulate because they're gravitationally more favored, are remnant objects from the origin of the solar system. And so one of the reasons that we are so interested in them, aside from potentially the fact that they could come hit Earth, but scientifically it's, it gives us a window into understanding the composition of the material from which Earth and the other planets formed and how that material was kind of redistributed over the history of the solar system. So the asteroids, one could classify them in two different ways. Some of them are ancient objects. So they accreted out of the sort of disc of material that the whole solar system formed out of and have kind of remained ever since more or less the same. They've probably collided with each other and we see the, all these collisional fragments and you can actually look and based on their orbits say, you know, like these 50 objects originated as the same object. You can see them kind of dynamically moving apart after some big collision. And so some of them are these ancient objects maybe that have undergone collisions. And then there's this other category of object that is the one that I personally find really interesting which is remnants of objects that could have been planets. So early on a bunch of potential planets accreted that we call planetesimals and they formed and they formed with a lot of energy and they had enough time to actually differentiate. So some of these objects differentiated into cores and mantles and crests. And then they were subsequently disrupted in these massive collisions and they, now we have these fragments, we think fragments floating around the asteroid belt that are like bits of mantle, bits of core, bits of crest basically. So it's like puzzle pieces that you might be able to stitch together or I guess it's all mixed up so you can't stitch together the original planet candidates or is that possible to try to see if they kind of, I mean, there's too many objects in there to. I think that there are cases where people have kind of looked at objects and by looking at their orbits, they say these objects should have originated together, but they have very different compositions. And so then you can hypothesize maybe they were different fragments of a differentiated object. But one of the really cool things about this is, you know, we've been talking about getting clues into the interiors of planets. We've never seen a planetary core or deep mantle directly. Some mantle material comes up on our surface and then we can see it, but, you know, sort of in bulk. We haven't seen these things directly and these asteroids potentially give us a chance to like look at what our own core and mantle is like, or at least would be like if it had been also floating through space for a few billion years and getting irradiated and all that. But it's a cool potential window or like analogy into the interior of our own planet. Well, how do you begin studying some of these asteroids? What if you were to put together a study, like what are the interesting questions to ask that are a little bit more specific? Do you find a favorite asteroid that could be tracked and try to track it through telescopes? Or do you, is it has to be, do you have to land on those things to study it? So when it comes to the asteroids, there are so many of them and the big pictures or the big questions are answered, so some questions can be answered by zooming in in detail on individual object, but mostly you're trying to do a statistical study. So you want to look at thousands of objects, even hundreds of thousands of objects and figure out what their composition is and look at, you know, how many big asteroids there are of this composition versus how many small asteroids of this other composition and put together these kinds of statistical properties of the asteroid belt. And those properties can be directly compared with the results of simulations for the formation of the solar system. What do we know about the surfaces of asteroids or the contents of the insides of asteroids and what are still open questions? So I would say that we don't know a whole lot about their compositions. Most of them are small and so you can't study them in such detail with telescopes as you could, you know, a planet or moon and at the same time, because there are so many of them, you could send a spacecraft to a few, but you can't really like get a statistical survey with spacecraft. And so a lot of what we, a lot of what has been done comes down to sort of classification. You look at how bright they are, you look at whether they're red or blue, simply, you know, whether their spectrum is sloped towards long wavelengths or short wavelengths. There are certain, if you point a spectrograph at their surfaces, there are certain features you can see. So you can tell that some of them have silicates on them. But these are the sort of, they're pretty basic questions. We're still trying to classify them based on fairly basic information in kind of combination with our general understanding of the material the solar system formed from. And so you're sort of, you're coming in with prior knowledge, which is that you more or less know what the materials are the solar system formed from, and then you're trying to classify them into these categories. There's still a huge amount of room for understanding them better and for understanding how their surfaces are changing in the space environment. Is it hard to land on an asteroid? Is this a dumb question? It feels like it would be quite difficult to actually operate a spacecraft in such a dense field of debris. Oh, the asteroid belt, there's a ton of material there, but it's actually not that dense. It is mostly open space. So mentally do picture like mostly open space with some rocks. The problem is some of them are not thought to be solid. So some of these asteroids, especially these, these core mantle fragments, you can think of as sort of solid like a planet, but some of them are just kind of aggregates of material. We call them rubble piles. And so there's not necessarily. Might look like a rock, but do a lot of them have kind of clouds around them, like a dust cloud thing, or like, do you know what you're stepping on when you try to land on it? Like what are we supposed to be visualizing here? This is like very few have water, right? There's some water in the outer part of the asteroid belt, but they're not quite like comets in the sense of having clouds around them. There are some crazy asteroids that do become active like comets. That's the whole other category of thing that we don't understand. But their surfaces, I mean, we have visited some, you can find pictures that spacecraft have taken of them. We've actually scooped up material off of the surface of some of these objects. We're bringing it back to analyze it in the lab. And there's a mission that's launching next year to land on one of these supposedly core fragment objects to try to figure out what the heck it is and what's going on with it. But the surfaces, you know, they're, they're, you can picture a solid surface with some little grains of sand or pebbles on it and occasional boulders, maybe some fine dusty regions, dust kind of collecting in certain places. Is there this, do you worry about this? Is there any chance that one of these fellas destroys all of human civilization by an asteroid kind of colliding with something, changing its trajectory and then heading its way towards earth? That is definitely possible. And it doesn't even have to necessarily collide with something and change its trajectory. We're not tracking all of them. We can't track all of them yet. You know, there's still a lot of them. People are, people are tracking a lot of them and we are doing our best to track more of them. But there are a lot of them out there and it would be potentially catastrophic if one of them impacted earth. Have you, are you aware of this Apophis object? So there's an asteroid, a near earth object called Apophis that people thought had a decent probability of hitting earth in 2029 and then potentially again in 2036. So they did a lot of studies. It's not actually going to hit earth, but it is going to come very close. It's going to be visible in the sky in a relatively dark, I mean, not even that dark, probably not visible from Los Angeles, but, and it's going to come a 10th of the way between the earth and the moon. It's going to come closer apparently than some geosynchronous communication satellites. Oh wow. So that is a close call, but people have studied it and apparently are very confident it's not actually going to hit us, but it was. I'm going to have to look into this because I'm very sure, I'm very sure what's going to happen if an asteroid actually hits earth. That the scientific community and government will confidently say that, uh, we have nothing to worry about. It's going to be a close call. And then last minute they'll be like, there was a miscalculation. They're not lying. It's just like the space of possibilities, because it's very difficult to track these kinds of things and there's a lot of kind of, um, there's complexities involved in this. There's a lot of uncertainties that I just, something tells me that human civilization will end with, we'll see it coming. And then last minute there'll be a, oops, we'll like, we'll see it coming and we'll, it'll be like, no, it's just, it's just threatening, but no problem. No problem. And last minute it'll be like, oops, that was a miscalculation. And it's all over in a matter of like a week, or just very positive and optimistic today. Is there any chance that Bruce Willis can save us in the sense that from what you know about asteroids, is there something that, um, you can catch them early enough to, uh, change volcanic, uh, eruptions, right, um, sort of drill, put a nuclear weapon inside and break up the asteroid or change its trajectory? There is potential for that. If you catch it early enough in advance, um, I think in theory, if you knew five years in advance, um, depending on the objects and how close, how much you would need to deflect it, um, you could deflect it a little bit. I don't know that it would be sufficient in all cases. Um, and this is definitely not my specific area of expertise, but my understanding is that there is something you could do. Um, but it also, how you would carry that out depends a lot on the properties of the asteroid. If it's a solid object versus a rubble pile. So let's say you planted some bomb in the middle of it and it blew up, but it was just kind of a pile of material anyway. And then that material comes back together and then you kind of just have the same thing. Presumably its trajectory would be altered, but it's, it's like a terminator too. When it's like the thing that just like you shoot it in splashes and then comes back together will be very useless. That's fascinating. It was fascinating. I've gotten a lot of hope from watching, uh, uh, SpaceX rockets that land. There's so much. It's like, Oh wow. From an AI perspective, from a robotics perspective, wow, we can do a hell of an amazing job with control. And but then we have an understanding about surfaces here on earth, we can map up a lot of things. I wonder if we can do that. Some kind of detail of being able to have that same level of precision in landing on surfaces with as wide of a variety as asteroids have to be able to understand the exact properties of the surface and be able to encode that into whatever rocket that lands sufficiently to, I presume humans, unlike the, unlike the movies, humans would likely get in the way. Like it should all be done by robots and like land drill, place the, the explosive that should all be done through control, the robots. And then you should be able to dynamically adjust to, um, to the surface. The flip side of that for a robotics person, I don't know if you've seen these, it's been very heartbreaking. Uh, somebody I know well, Russ Tedrick at MIT led the DARPA robotics challenge team for the humanoid robot challenge for DARPA. I don't know if you've seen videos of robots on two feet falling, but you're talking about millions, you know, several years of work from with some of the most brilliant roboticists in the world, millions of dollars. And the final thing is a highlight video on YouTube of robots falling, but they had a lot of trouble with uneven surfaces. That's basically what you have to do with, uh, the challenge involves you're mostly autonomous with some partial human communication, but that human communication is broken up. Like you don't get a, you get a noisy channel, so you can, humans can, which is very similar to what it would be like in humans remotely operating a thing on an asteroid. And so with that, robots really struggled. There's some hilarious painful videos of like a robot, not able to like open the door. And then it tries to open the door without like, it misses the handle and in doing so like falls, I mean, it's, um, it's painful to watch. So like that, there's that, and then there's SpaceX. So I have hope from SpaceX and then I have less hope from bipedal robotics, um, but it's fun. It's fun to kind of imagine. And I think the planetary side of it comes into play in understanding the surfaces of these asteroids more and more that, you know, forget sort of destruction of human civilization. It'd be cool to have like spacecraft just landing on all these asteroids to study them at scale and being able to figure out dynamically what, you know, whether it's a rubble pile or whether it's, um, a solid objects, like, do you see that kind of future of science? Maybe a hundred, 200, 300 years from now, where there's just robots expanding out through the solar system, like sensors, essentially. Some of it taking pictures from a distance, some of them landing, just exploring and giving us data. Cause it feels like we're working with very little data right now. Sure I, I do see exploration going that way. I think, um, the way that NASA is currently or historically has been doing missions is putting together these, these really large missions that do a lot of things and are extremely well tested and have a very low rate of failure. But now that, um, these sort of CubeSat technologies are, are becoming easier to build, easier to launch, they're, they're very cheap. And you know, NASA is getting involved in this as well. There's, there's a lot of interest in these missions that are relatively small, relatively cheap and just do one thing. So you can really optimize it to just do this one thing. And maybe you could build a hundred of them and send them to different asteroids. And they would just collect this one piece of information from each asteroid. It's a kind of different, more distributed way of doing science, I guess. And there's a ton of potential there, I agree. Let me ask you about objects or one particular object from outside our solar system. We don't get to study many of these, right? They don't, we don't get stuff that just flies in out of nowhere from outside the solar system and flies through. Apparently there's been two recently in the past few years. One of them is Amuamua. What are your thoughts about Amuamua? So fun to say. Could it, could it be space junk from a distant alien civilization or is it just a weird shaped comet? I like the way that's phrased. Um, so Amuamua is, is a fascinating object. Just the fact that we have started discovering things that are coming in from outside our solar system is amazing and can, can start to study them. And now that we have seen some, we can design now kind of thinking in advance. The next time we see one, we will be much more ready for it. We will know which telescopes we want to point at it. We will have explored whether we could even launch a fast turnaround mission to actually like get to it before it leaves the solar system. In terms of Amuamua, yeah, it's, for an object in our solar system, it's really unusual in two particular ways. One is the dimensions that we don't see natural things in our solar system that are kind of long and skinny. We see, the things we see in our solar system don't deviate from spherical by that much. And then that it showed these strange properties of accelerating as it was leaving the solar system, which was not understood at first. So in terms of the alien space junk, you know, as a scientist, I cannot rule out that possibility. I have no evidence to the contrary. Um, however, See, you're saying there's a chance. I cannot, I cannot, as a scientist, honestly say that I can rule out that it's alien space junk. However, I see the kind of alien explanation as following this, the Sagan's extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If you are going to actually claim that something is aliens, you need to carefully evaluate, everyone needs to carefully evaluate the other options and see whether it could just be something that we know exists that makes sense. In the case of Oumuamua, there are explanations that fit well within our understanding of how things work. So there are a couple, there are two hypotheses for what it could be made of. They're both basically just ice shards. In one case, it's a nitrogen ice shard that came off of something like Pluto in another solar system, that Pluto got hit with something and broke up into pieces, and one of those pieces came through our solar system. In the other scenario, it's a bit of a failed solar system. So our solar system formed out of a collapsing molecular cloud. Sometimes those molecular clouds are not massive enough, and they sort of collapse into bits, but they don't actually form a solar system, but you end up with these kind of chunks of hydrogen ice, apparently. And so one of those chunks of hydrogen ice could have got ejected and passed through our solar system. So both cases explain these properties in about the same way. So those ices will sublimate once they've passed the sun, and so as they're moving away from the sun, you have the hydrogen or nitrogen ice sublimating off the sunward part of it, and so that is responsible for the acceleration. The shape also, because you have all this ice sublimating off the surface, if you take something, the analogy that works pretty well here is for a bar of soap. Your bar of soap starts out sort of close to spherical, at least from a physicist perspective, and as you use it over time, you eventually end up with this long, thin shard because it's been just by sort of weathering, as we would call it. And so in the same way, if you just sublimate material off of one of these ice shards, it ends up long and thin, and it ends up accelerating out of the solar system. And so given that these properties can be reasonably well explained that way, we should be extremely skeptical about attributing things to aliens. See, the reason I like to think that it's aliens is because it puts a lot of priority on us not being lazy and we need to catch this thing next time it comes around. I like the idea that there's objects, it almost saddens me, they come out of the darkness really fast and just fly by and go and leave. It just seems like a wasted opportunity not to study them. It's the easiest way to do space travel outside of the solar system is having the things come to us. Right? I like that way of putting it. And it would be nice to just land on it. And first of all, really importantly, detect it early and then land on it with a really nice spacecraft and study the hell out of it. If there's a chance it's aliens, alien life, it just feels like such a cheap way, inexpensive way to get information about alien life or something interesting that's out there. And I'm not sure if an ice shard from another planetary system will be interesting, but it very well could be. It could be totally new sets of materials. It could be, tell us about composition of planets we don't quite understand. And it's just nice when, especially in the case of a Moa Moa, I guess it was pretty close to earth. It would have been nice to, don't go there, they come to us, I don't know. That's what makes me quite sad. It's a missed opportunity. Well, yeah. And whether you think it's aliens or not, it's a missed opportunity, but we weren't prepared and we will be prepared for the next ones. So there's been a movement in astronomy more towards what's called time domain astronomy. So kind of monitoring the whole sky all the time at all wavelengths. That's kind of the goal. And so we expect to detect many more of these in the future, even though these were the first two we saw, our potential to detect them is only increasing with time. And so there will be more opportunities and based on these two, we now can actually sit and think about what we'll do when the next one shows up. I also, what it made me realize, I know I didn't really think through this, but it made me realize if there is alien civilizations out there, the thing we're most likely to see first would be space junk. My stupid understanding of it. And the second would be really dumb kind of, you could think of maybe like relay nodes or something objects that you need to have a whole lot of for particular purposes of like space travel and so on. Like a speed limit signs or something, I don't know, whatever we have on earth, a lot of that's dumb. It's not alien aliens in themselves. It's like artifacts that are useful to the engineering in the systems that are engineered by alien civilizations. So like it would, we would see a lot of stuff in terms of setting, in terms of looking for alien life and trying to communicate with it. Maybe we should be looking not for like smart creatures or systems to communicate with. Maybe we should be looking for artifacts or even as dumb as like space junk. It just kind of reframed my perspective of like, what are we looking for as signs? Cause there could be a lot of stuff that doesn't have intelligence, but gives us really strong signs that there's somewhere is life or intelligent life. And yeah, that made me kind of, I know it might be dumb to say, but reframe the kind of thing that we should be looking for. Yeah. So the benefit of looking for intelligent life is that we perhaps have a better chance of recognizing it. We couldn't necessarily recognize what an alien stop sign look like. And maybe the theorists are the people who sort of model and try to understand slow system objects are pretty good at coming up with models for anything. I mean, maybe a mua mua was a stop sign, but we're clever enough that we could come up with some physical explanations for it. And then we all want to go with the simplest possible, we all want to believe the sort of most skeptical possible explanation. And so we missed it because we're too good at coming up with alternate explanations for things. And it's such an outlier, such a rare phenomenon that we can't study a hundred or a thousand of these objects. We have to, we had just one. And so the science almost destroys the possibility of something special being there. It's like Johnny Ive, this designer of Apple, I don't know if you know who that is. He's the lead designer. He's the person who designed the iPhone and all the major things. And he talked about, he's brilliant, one of my favorite humans on earth and one of the best designers in the history of earth. He talked about like when he had this origins of an idea, like in his baby stages, he would not tell Steve Jobs because Steve would usually like trample all over it. He would say, this is a dumb idea. And so I sometimes think of the scientific community in that sense, because the weapon of the scientific method is so strong at its best that it sometimes crushes the out of the box outlier evidence. We don't get a lot of that evidence because we don't have, we're not lucky enough to have a lot of evidence. So we have to deal with just special cases and special cases could present an inkling of something much bigger, but the scientific method user tramples all over it. And it's hard to know what to do with that because the scientific method works, but at the same time, every once in a while, it's like a balance. You have to do 99% of the time, you have to do like scientific rigor, but every once in a while, this is not you saying, me saying, smoke some weed and sit back and think, I wonder, you know, it's the Joe Rogan thing. It's entirely possible that it's alien space junk. Anyway. Yeah. I think so. I completely agree. And I think that most scientists do speculate about these things. It's just at what point do you act on those things? So you're right that the scientific method has inherent skepticism, and for the most part, that's a good thing because it means that we're not just believing crazy things all the time. But it's an interesting point that requiring that high level of rigor occasionally means that you will miss something that is truly interesting because you needed to verify it three times and it wasn't verifiable. I also think like when you communicate with the general public, I think there's power in that 1% speculation of just demonstrating authenticity as a human being, as a curious human being. I think too often, I think this is changing, but I saw, I've been quite disappointed in my colleagues throughout 2020 with the coronavirus. There's too much speaking from authority as opposed to speaking from curiosity. There's some of the most incredible science has been done in 2020, especially on the virology biology side. And the kind of being talked down to by scientists is always really disappointing to me as opposed to inspiring. Like the things we, there's a lot of uncertainty about the coronavirus, but we know a lot of this stuff and we speak from scientists from various disciplines, speak from data in the face of that uncertainty. And we're curious, we don't know what the hell is going on. We don't know if this virus is going to evolve, mutate. We don't know if this virus or the next one might destroy all human civilization. You can't speak with certainty. In fact, I was on a survey paper about masks, something I don't talk much about because I don't like politics, but we don't know if masks work, but there's a lot of evidence to show that they work for this particular virus. The transmission of the virus is fascinating actually. The biomechanics of the way viruses spread is fascinating. If it wasn't destructive, it would be beautiful. And we don't know, but it's inspiring to apply the scientific method to the best of our ability, but also to show that you don't always know everything and to, perhaps not about the virus as much, but other things speculate. What if, you know, what if it's the worst case and the best case? Because that's ultimately what we are, descendants of apes that are just curious about the world around us. Yeah, I'll just add to that, not on the topic of masks, but on the topic of curiosity. I mean, I think that's, astronomy and planetary sciences, a field are a little, are unique because for better and for worse, they don't directly impact humanity. So you know, we're not studying virology to prevent transmission of, you know, illness amongst humans. We're not characterizing volcanoes on earth that could destroy cities. We, it really is a more curious and in my opinion, playful scientific field than many. So for better and worse, we can kind of afford to pursue some of the speculation more because human lives are not in danger if we speculate a little bit too freely and get something wrong. Yeah, definitely. In the space of AI, I am worried that we're sometimes too eager, speaking for myself, to like flip the switch to on just to see like what happens. Maybe sometimes we want to be a little bit careful about that because bad things might happen. Is there books or movies in your life long ago or recently that were inspiring, had an impact on you that you would recommend? Yeah, absolutely. So many that I just don't know where to start with it. So I love reading. I read obsessively. I've been reading fiction and a little bit of nonfiction, but mostly fiction obsessively since I was a child and just never stopped. So I have some favorite books. None of them are easy readings. So I definitely, I mean, I recommend them for somebody who likes an intellectual challenge in the books that they read. So maybe I should go chronologically. I have at least three. I'm not going to go through 50 here. Yeah, I'd love to also like maybe ideas that you took away from what you mentioned. Yeah. Yeah. Why they were so compelling to me. One of the first books that really captured my fascination was Nabokov's book Pale Fire. Are you familiar with it? So I read it actually for a class. It's one of the few books I've ever read for a class that I actually really liked. And the book is, it's in some sense a puzzle. He's a brilliant writer, of course, but the book is like, it's formatted like a poem. So there's an introduction, a very long poem and footnotes, and you get partway through it before realizing that the whole thing is actually a novel, unless you sort of read up on it going in. But the whole thing is a novel and there's a story that slowly reveals itself over the course of all of this and kind of reveals this just fascinating character basically and how his mind works in this story. The idea of a novel also being a kind of intellectual puzzle and something that slowly reveals itself over the course of reading was really fascinating to me and I have since found a lot more writers like that. In a contemporary example that comes to mind is Kazuo Ishiguro, who's pretty much all of his books are like slow reveals over the course of the book and like nothing much happens in the books, but you keep reading them because you just want to know like what the reality is that he's slowly revealing to you. The kind of discovery oriented reading maybe. What's the second one? Perhaps my favorite writer is Renier Maria Rilke. Wow. Are you familiar with him? No, also not familiar. You're hitting hidden ones. I mean, I know in the book of Well, but I've never read Pale Fire, but Rilke, I've never, I know it's a very difficult read, I know that much. Yeah, right. All of these are difficult reads. I think I just, I read for in part for an intellectual challenge, but Rilke, so he wrote one thing that might be characterizable as a novel, but he wrote a lot of poetry. I mean, he wrote this series of poems called the Duino Elegies that were very impactful for me personally, just emotionally, which actually it kind of ties in with astronomy in that there's a sense in which we're all going through our lives alone and there's just this sense of profound loneliness in the existence of every individual human. I think I was drawn to astronomy in part because the sort of vast spaces, the kind of loneliness and desolateness of space made the sort of internal loneliness feel okay. In a sense, it like gave companionship and that's how I feel about Rilke's poetry. He turns the kind of desolation and loneliness of human existence into something joyful and almost meaningful. Yeah, there's something about melancholy, I don't know about Rilke in general, but like contemplating the melancholy nature of the human condition that makes it okay. I got gentle from an engineering perspective, think that there is so much loneliness we haven't explored within ourselves yet and that's my hope is to build AI systems that help us explore our own loneliness. I think that's kind of what love is and friendship is, is somebody who in a very small way helps us explore our own loneliness, like they listen, we connect like two lonely creatures connect for a time and it's like, oh, like acknowledge that we exist together for a brief time, but in a somewhat shallow way, I think relative to how much it's possible to truly connect as two consciousnesses. So AI might be able to help on that front. So what's the third one? Actually, you know, I hadn't realized until this moment, but it's yet another one of these kind of slow reveal books. It's a contemporary Russian, I think Russian American writer named Olga Grushin and she wrote this just phenomenal book called The Dream Life of Sukhanov that I read this year. Maybe it was last year for the first time and it's just a really beautiful, this one you could call a character study, I think of a Russian father coming to terms with himself and his own past as he potentially slowly loses his mind. Slow reveal. Slow reveal. Well, that's apparent from the beginning. I hope I don't think it's a spoiler. Decline into madness. Spoiler alert. So all of these are really heavy. I don't know. I just, I don't have anything lighter to recommend. Ishiguro is the light version of this. Okay. Well, heavy has a certain kind of beauty to it in itself. Is there advice you would give to a young person today that looks up to the stars and wonders what the heck they want to do with their life? So career, science, life in general, you've for now chosen a certain kind of path of curiosity. What insights do you draw from that that you can give us advice to others? I think for somebody, I would not presume to speak to giving people advice on life and humanity overall, but for somebody thinking of being a scientist. So there are a couple of things, one sort of practical thing, which is career wise, I hadn't appreciated this going into science, but you need to, so the questions you're working on and the techniques you use are both of very high importance, maybe equal importance for being happy in your career. If there are questions you're interested in, but the techniques that you need to use to do them are tedious for you, then your job is going to be miserable even if the questions are inspiring. So you have to find, but if the techniques that you use are things that excite you, then your job is fun every day. So for me, I'm fascinated by the solar system and I love telescopes and I love doing data analysis, playing with data from telescopes, coming up with new ways to use telescopes and so that's where I have found that mesh. But if I was interested in, you know, the dynamical evolution of the solar system, how the orbits of things evolve, then I would need to do a different type of work that I would just not find as appealing and so it just wouldn't be a good fit. And so it sort of seems like an unromantic thing to have to think about the techniques being the thing you want to work on also, but it really makes a profound difference for I think your happiness and your scientific career. I think that's really profound. It's like the thing, the menial tasks. If you enjoy those, that's a really good sign that that's the right path for you. I think David Foster Wallace said that the key to life is to be unborable. So basically everything should be exciting. I don't think that's feasible, but you should find an area where everything is exciting. I mean, depending on the day, but you could find the joy in everything, not just the big exciting things that everyone thinks is exciting, but the details, the repetitive stuff, the menial stuff, the stuff that takes years, the stuff that involves a lot of failure and all those kinds of things that you find that enjoyable. That's actually really profound to focus on that because people talk about like dreams and passion and goals and so on, the big thing, but that's not actually what takes you there. What takes you there is every single day, putting in the hours, and that's what actually makes up life is the boring bits. If the boring bits aren't boring, then that's an exciting life because when you were talking so romantically and passionately about IO, I remember the poem by Robert Frost. So let me ask you, let me read the poem and ask what your opinion is. That's called Fire and Ice. Oh yeah. I could almost recite this from memory. Some say the world will end in fire. Some say in ice. From what I've tasted of desire, I hold with those who favor fire. But if I had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate to say that for destruction ice is also great and would suffice. So let me ask, if you had to only choose one, would you choose the world to end in fire, in volcanic eruptions, in heat and magma, or in ice, frozen over? Fire or ice? Fire. Excellent choice. I've always been a fan of chaos and the idea of things just slowly getting cold and stopping and dying is just so depressing to me. So much more depressing than things blowing up or burning or getting covered by a lava flow. Somehow the activity of it endows it with more meaning to me, maybe. I've just now had this vision of you in action films where you're walking away without looking back and this explosion's behind you and you put on shades and then it goes to credits. Catherine, this is awesome, I think your work is really inspiring. The kind of things we'll discover about planets in the next few decades is super cool and I hope, I know you said there's probably not life in one of them, but there might be and I hope we discover just that. And perhaps even on Io, within the volcanic eruptions, there's a little creature hanging on that we'll one day discover. Thank you so much for wasting all your valuable time with me today, it was really awesome. Yeah, likewise, thank you for having me here. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Catherine Duclear and thank you to Fundrise, Blinkist, ExpressVPN and Magic Spoon. Check them out in the description to support this podcast. And now let me leave you with some words from Carl Sagan. On Titan, the molecules that have been raining down like mana from heaven for the last four billion years might still be there, largely unaltered, deep frozen, awaiting for the chemists from Earth. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time. that look like? What would it feel like? Is this the entire thing covered in basically volcanoes? So it's interesting because there's very little atmosphere. The surface is actually really cold, very far below freezing on the surface when you're away from a volcano, but the volcanoes themselves are over a thousand degrees or the magma when it comes out is over a thousand degrees. And so. But it does come to the surface, the magma? It does. Yeah. In particular places. Whoa, that probably looks beautiful. So like, so it's frozen, not ice. Like what is, is rock, it's really cold rock. And then you just have this like, what is, what does that look, what would that look like with no atmosphere? Would that, uh, would it be smoke? What does it look like? It's just magma, like just red, yellow, like liquidy things? It's black, it's black and red, I guess. Like think of the type of magma that you see in Hawaii. So different types of magma flow in different ways, for example. So in somewhere like Io, the magma is really hot and so it will flow out in sheets because it has really low viscosity. And I think the lava flows that we've been having in Hawaii over the past couple of years are probably a decent analogy, although Io's magma's lavas are even more fluid and faster moving. How faster? Like what, uh, how fat, like if you, uh, by the way, sorry, through the telescope, are you tracking at what timescale? Like every frame is how far apart? If you're looking through a telescope, are we talking about seconds or we're talking about days, months, when you kind of track, try to get a picture of what the surface might look like, what's the frequency? So it depends a little bit on what you want to do. I, ideally every night, um, but you could take a frame every second and see how things are changing. The, the problem with that is that for things to change on a one second timescale, you to actually see something change that fast, you have to have super high resolution. The spatial resolution we have is a couple of hundred kilometers. And so things are not changing on those scales over one second, unless you have something really crazy happening. So if you get, if you get a telescope closer to Io, if you get a, or a camera closer to Io, would you be able to understand something? Is that something of interest to you? Would you be able to understand something deeper about these volcanic eruptions and how magma flows and just the, like the rate of the magma is, or is it basically enough to have the kilometer resolution? Do you get it? No way. We want to go there. Absolutely. You want to go, you want to go to Io? I mean, I don't want to go there personally, but I want to send a spacecraft mission there. Absolutely. Why? Why are you scared? Why am I scared? Oh, you mean you don't like, I don't want to go there as a human as a human. I want to send a robot there to look at it though. This is again, everybody's discriminating against robots. This is not, but it's fine. But it's not hospitable to humans in any way, right? Just very cold and very hot. It's very cold. The atmosphere is composed of sulfur dioxide, so you can breathe it. There's no pressure. I mean, it's kind of all the same things you talk about. One talks about, about Mars only worse, the atmosphere is still a thousand times less dense than Mars is. And the radiation environment is terrible because you're embedded deep within Jupiter's magnetic field and Jupiter's magnetic field is full of charged particles that have all come out of Io's volcanoes actually. So Jupiter's magnetic field strips all this material out of Io's atmosphere and that populates its entire magnetosphere and then that material comes back around and hits Io and spreads throughout the system actually. It's just, it's like Io is the massive polluter of the Jupiter system. Okay, cool. So what does studying Io teach you about volcanoes on earth or vice versa? Is in the difference of the two, what insights can you mine out? That might be interesting in some way. Yeah. Well, we try to port the tools that we use to study earth volcanism to Io and it works to some extent, but it is challenging because the situations are so different and the compositions are really different. When you talk about outgassing, you know, earth volcanoes outgassed primarily water and carbon dioxide, and then sulfur dioxide is the third most abundant gas. And on Io, the water and carbon dioxide are not there, either it didn't form with them or it lost them, we don't know. And so the chemistry of how the magma outgassed this is completely different. But the kind of one to me most interesting analogy to earth is that, so Io, as I've said, it has these really low viscosity magmas, the lava spreads really quickly across its surface, it can put out massive volumes of magma in relatively short periods of time. And that sort of volcanism is not happening anywhere else in the solar system today. But literally every terrestrial planet and the moon had this, what we call very effusive volcanism early in their history. Okay, so this is almost like a little glimpse into the early history of earth. Yeah. Okay, cool. So what are the chances that a volcano on earth destroys all of human civilization? Maybe I wanted to sneak in that question. Yeah, a volcano on earth. Do you think about that kind of stuff when you just study volcanoes elsewhere? Because isn't it kind of humbling to see something so powerful and so hot, like so unpleasant for humans, and then you realize we're sitting on many of them here? Right. Yeah, Yellowstone is a classic example. I don't know what the chances are of that happening. My intuition would be that the chances of that are lower than the chances of us getting wiped out by some other means, that maybe it'll happen eventually, that there'll be one of these massive volcanoes on earth, but we'll probably be gone by then by some other means. Not to sound bleak. That's very comforting. Okay, so can we talk about Europa? Is there, so maybe can you talk about the intuition, the hope that people have about life being in Europa? Maybe also, what are the things we know about it? What are the things to you that are interesting about that particular moon of Jupiter? Sure. Yeah, Europa is, from many perspectives, one of the really interesting places in the solar system among the solar system moons. So there are a few, there's a lot of interest in looking for or understanding the potential for life to evolve in the subsurface oceans. I think it's fairly widely accepted that the chances of life evolving on the surfaces of really anything in the solar system is very low. The radiation environment is too harsh and there's just not liquids on the surface of most of these things and it's canonically accepted that liquids are required for life. And so the subsurface oceans, in addition to maybe Titan's atmosphere, the subsurface oceans of the icy satellites are one of the most plausible places in the solar system for life to evolve. Europa and Cellitus are interesting because for many of the big satellites, so Ganymede and Callisto, also satellites of Jupiter, also are thought to have subsurface oceans. But they have these ice shells and then there's an ocean underneath the ice shell. But on those moons around Ganymede, we think that there's another ice shell underneath and then there's rock. And the reason that that is a problem for life is that your ocean is probably just pure water because it's trapped between two big shells of ice. So Europa doesn't have this ice shell at the bottom of the ocean, we think. And so the water and rock are in direct interaction and so that means that you can basically dissolve a lot of material out of the rock. You potentially have this hydrothermal activity that's injecting energy and nutrients for life to survive. And so this rock water interface is considered really important for the potential habitability. As a small aside, you kind of said that it's canonically assumed that water is required for life. Is it possible to have life like in a volcano? I remember people were like in that National Geographic program or something kind of hypothesizing that you can really have life anywhere. So as long as there's a source of heat, a source of energy, do you think it's possible to have life in a volcano, like no water? I think anything's possible. I think so. It doesn't have to be water. You can tell, as you identified, I phrased that really carefully. It's canonically accepted that because scientists recognize that we have no idea what broad range of life could be out there and all we really have is our biases of life as we know it. But for life as we know it, it's very helpful to have or even necessary to have some kind of liquid and preferably a polar solvent that can actually dissolve molecules, something like water. So the case of liquid methane on Titan is less ideal from that perspective. But liquid magma, if it stays liquid long enough for life to evolve, you have a heat source, you have a liquid, you have nutrients. In theory, that checks your three classic astrobiology boxes. That'd be fascinating. I mean, it'd be fascinating if it's possible to detect it easily. How would we detect if there is life on Europa? Is it possible to do in a noncontact way from a distance through telescopes and so on? Or do we need to send robots and do some drilling? I think realistically you need to do the drilling. So Europa also has these long tectonic features on its surface where it's thought that there's potential for water from the ocean to be somehow making its way up onto the surface. And you could imagine some out there scenario where there's bacteria in the ocean. It's somehow working its way up through the ice shell. It's spilling out on the surface. It's being killed by the radiation. But your instrument could detect some spectroscopic signature of that dead bacterium. But that's many ifs and assumptions. That's a hope because then you don't have to do that much drilling. You can collect from the surface. Skeletons of bacteria. Right. I'm thinking even remotely. Oh, remotely. Yeah. That's sad that there's a single cell civilization living underneath all that ice trying to get up. Trying to get out. Enceladus gives you a slightly better chance of that because Enceladus is a moon of Saturn and it's broadly similar to Europa in some ways. It's an icy satellite. It has a subsurface ocean that's probably in touch with the rocky interior. But it has these massive geysers at its south pole where it's spewing out material that appears to be originating all the way from the ocean. And so in that case, you could potentially fly through that plume and scoop up that material and hope that at the velocities you'd be scooping it up. You're not destroying any signature of the life you're looking for. But let's say that you have some ingenuity and can come up with a way to do that. It potentially gives you a more direct opportunity at least to try to measure those bacteria directly. Can you tell me a little more on, how do you pronounce it, Salas? Enceladus. Enceladus. Can you tell me a little bit more about Enceladus? Like we've been talking about way too much about Jupiter, Saturn doesn't get enough love. Saturn doesn't get as much love. So what's Enceladus? Is that the most exciting moon of Saturn? Depends on your perspective. It's very exciting from a astrobiology perspective. I think Enceladus and Titan are the two most unique and interesting moons of Saturn that definitely both get the most attention also from the life perspective. So what's the more likely Titan or Enceladus for life? If you were to bet all your money in terms of like investing, which to investigate, what are the differences between the two that are interesting to you? Yeah. So the potential for life in each of those two places is very different. So Titan is the one place in the solar system where you might imagine, again, all of this is so speculative, but you might imagine life evolving in the atmosphere. So from a biology perspective, Titan is interesting because it forms complex organic molecules in its atmosphere. It has a dense atmosphere. It's actually denser than Earth's. It's the only moon that has an atmosphere denser than Earth's and it's got tons of methane in it. What happens is that methane gets irradiated, it breaks up and it reforms with other things in the atmosphere. It makes these complex organic molecules and it's effectively doing prebiotic chemistry in the atmosphere. While still being freezing cold? Yes. Okay. What would that be like? Would that be pleasant for humans to hang out there? It's just really cold? There's nowhere in the solar system that would be pleasant for humans. It would be cold. You couldn't breathe the air. But colonization wise, if there's an atmosphere, isn't that a big plus? Or still a ton of radiation? Sure. Okay. So Titan, that's a really nice feature that life could be in the atmosphere because then it might be remotely observable or certainly is more accessible if you visit. Okay. So what about Enceladus? So that would be still in the ocean. Right. And Enceladus has the advantage, like I said, of spewing material out of its south pole so you could collect it. But it has the disadvantage of the fact that we don't actually really understand how its ocean could stay globally liquid over the age of the solar system. And so there are some models that say that it's going through this cyclical evolution where the ocean freezes completely and thaws completely and the orbit sort of oscillates in and out of these eccentricities. And in that case, the potential for life ever occurring there in the first place is a lot lower because if you only have an ocean for 100 million years, is that enough time? It also means there might be mass extinction events if it does occur and then it just freezes. Again, very sad, man. This is very depressing, all the slaughter of life elsewhere. How unlikely do you think life is on Earth? So when you study other planets and you study the contents of other planets, does that give you a perspective on the origin of life on Earth, which again is full of mystery in itself, not the evolution, but the origin, the first springing to life, like from nothing to life, from the basic ingredients to life? I guess another way of asking it is how unique are we? Yeah, it's a great question and it's one that just scientifically we don't have an answer to. We don't even know how many times life evolved on Earth, if it was only once or if it happened independently a thousand times in different places. We don't know whether it's happened anywhere else in the universe, although it feels absurd to believe that we are the only life that evolved in the entire universe, but it's conceivable. We just have just no real information. We don't understand really how life came about in the first place on Earth. I mean, so if you look at the Drake equation that tries to estimate how many alien civilizations are out there, planets have a big part to play in that equation. If you were to bet money in terms of the odds of origins of life on Earth, I mean, this all has to do with how special and unique is Earth. What you land in terms of the number of civilizations has to do with how unique their rare Earth hypothesis is. How rare and special is Earth? How rare and special is the solar system? Like if you had to bet all your money on a completely unscientific question, well, no, it's actually a rigorously scientific, we just don't know a lot of things in that equation. There's a lot of mysteries about that and it's slowly becoming better and better understood in terms of exoplanets, in terms of how many solar systems are out there where there's planets that are Earth like planets, it's getting better and better understood. What's your sense from that perspective, how many alien civilizations out there, zero or one plus? You're right that the equation is being better understood, but you're really only talking about the first three parameters in the equation or something. How many stars are there, how many planets per star, and then we're just barely scratching the surface of what fraction of those planets might be habitable. The rest of the terms in the equation are like how likely is life to evolve given habitable conditions, how likely is it to survive, all these things. There are all these huge unknowns. Actually I remember when I first saw that equation, I think it was my first year of college and I thought this is ridiculous. This is A, common sense that didn't need to give a name, you know, and B, just a bunch of unknowns, it's like putting our ignorance together in one equation. But now I understand this equation, you know, it's not something we'll ever necessarily have the answer to, it just gives us a framework for having the exact conversation we're having right now. And I think that's how it was intended in the first place when it was put into writing was to give people a language to communicate about the factors that go into the potential for aliens to be out there and for us to find them. I would put money on there being aliens, I would not put money on us having definitive evidence of them in my lifetime. Well, definitive is a funny, is a funny word. My sense is, this is the saddest part for me, is my sense in terms of intelligent alien civilizations, I feel like we're so, we're so self obsessed that we literally would not be able to detect them. Even when they're like in front of us, like trees could be aliens, but just their intelligence could be realized on a scale, on a time scale or physical scale that we're not appreciating. Like trees could be way more intelligent than us. I don't know. It's just a dumb example. It could be rocks or it could be things like, this, I love this, this is a Dawkins memes. It could be that ideas are the, like ideas we have, like where do ideas come from? Where do thoughts come from? Maybe thoughts are the aliens or maybe thoughts is the actual mechanisms of communication in physics, right? This is like, we think of thoughts as something that springs up from neurons firing or where the hell they come from. And now what about consciousness? Maybe consciousness is the communication. It sounds like ridiculous, but like we're so self centered on this space, time, communication and physical space using like written language, like spoken with audio on a time scale that's very specific on a physical scale, it's very specific. So I tend to think that, but bacteria will probably recognize like moving organisms will probably recognize, but when that forms itself into intelligence, most likely it'll be robots of some kind because we won't be meeting the origins. We'll be meeting the creations of those intelligences. We just would not be able to appreciate it. And that's the saddest thing to me that we, yeah, we're too dumb to see aliens. Like we're too, we kind of think like, look at the progress of science, we've accomplished so much. The sad thing it could be that we're just like in the first 0.0001% of understanding anything is humbling. I hope that's true because I feel like we're very ignorant as a species. And I hope that our current level of knowledge only represents the 0.001% of what we will someday achieve. That actually feels optimistic to me. Well, I feel like that's easier for us to comprehend in the space of biology and not as easy to comprehend in the space of physics, for example, because we have a sense that like we have it, like if you, if you talk to theoretical physicists, they have a sense that we understand the basic laws that form the nature of reality of our universe. But so there's much more, like physicists are much more confident. Biologists are like, uh, this is a squishy mess, we're doing our best, physicists, but I would be, it'd be fascinating to see if physicists themselves would also be humbled by their being like, what the hell is dark matter and dark energy? What the hell is the, not just the origin of the, not just the big bang, but everything that happened since the big bang. A lot of things that happened since the big bang, we have no ideas about except basic models of physics. Right. What happened before the big bang? Yeah. Yeah. What happened before? Or what's happening inside the black hole? Why is there a black hole at the center of our galaxy? Can somebody answer this? A supermassive black hole. Nobody knows how it started. And they seem to be like in the middle of all galaxies. Um, so that could be a portal for aliens to communicate through consciousness. Okay. Um, all right, back to planets. How, um, what's your favorite outside of earth? What's your favorite planet or moon? Maybe outside of the ones we, well, first, have we talked about it already or, and then if we did mention it, what's the one outside of that? Oh gosh. I have to come up with another favorite that's not IO. Oh, IO is the favorite. Oh, absolutely. Why is IO the favorite? I mean, basically everything I've, I've already said, it's just such a, an amazing and unique object. Um, but on, I guess a personal note, it's probably the object that made me become a planetary scientist. It's the first thing in the solar system that really deeply captured my interest. Um, and when I started my PhD, I wanted to be an astrophysicist working on things like galaxy evolution, um, and sort of slowly, I had done some projects in the solar system, but IO was the thing that like really caught me in to doing solar system science. Okay. Let's, let's leave, uh, moons aside. What's your favorite planet? It sounds like you like moons better than planets. So it's, uh, that's accurate. Um, but the planets are, are fascinating. I think, you know, I find that the planets in the solar system really fascinating. What I like about the moons is that they, there's so much less that is known. There's still a lot more discovery space and the questions that we can ask are still the, the bigger questions. Gotcha. Um, which, you know, I, and maybe I'm being unfair to the planets because we're still trying to understand things like, was there ever life on Mars? And that is a huge question and one that we've sent numerous robots to Mars to try to answer. So maybe I'm being unfair to the planets, but, but there is certainly quite a bit more information, uh, that we have about the planets than the moons. But I mean, Venus is, is a fascinating object. So I like the objects that lie at the extremes. I think that if we can make a sort of theory or, or like I've been saying, framework for understanding planets and moons that can incorporate even the most extreme ones, then, you know, those are the things that really test your theory and test your understanding. And so they've always really fascinated me. Not so much the nice habitable places like Earth, but these extreme places like Venus that have, um, sulfuric acid clouds and just incredibly hot and dense surfaces. And Venus, of course, I love volcanism for some reason, and, and Venus has, probably has volcanic activity, definitely has in their recent past, maybe has ongoing today. What do you make of the news and maybe you can update it in terms of life being discovered in the atmosphere of Venus? Is that, sorry. Okay. You have opinion. I can already tell you have opinions. Was that fake news? I got excited when I saw that. What's the, what's the final, uh, is there a life on Venus? So the detection that was reported was the detection of the molecule phosphine. Um, and they said that they tried every other mechanism they could think of to produce phosphine and they, none of, no mechanism worked. And then they said, well, we know that life produces phosphine. And so that was sort of the train of logic. And, um, I don't personally believe that phosphine was detected in the first place. Okay. So then, I mean, this is just one study, but I, as a layman, I'm skeptical a little bit about tools that sense the contents of an atmosphere, like contents of an atmosphere from remotely and making conclusive statements about life. Oh yeah. Well that connection that you just made, the contents of the atmosphere to the life is, is a tricky one. And yeah, I know that that claim received a lot of criticism for the lines of logic that went from detection to, uh, to claim of life. Even the detection itself though, did, doesn't, doesn't meet the sort of historical scientific standards of, of a detection. Um, the, it was a very tenuous detection and only one line of the species was detected. And a lot of really complicated data analysis methods had to be applied to even make that weak detection. Yeah. Um. So it could be, it could be noise, it could be polluted data, it could be all the, all those things. And so it doesn't have, it doesn't meet the, the level of rigor that you would hope. But of course, I mean, we're doing our best and it's clear that, uh, the human species are hopeful to find life. Clearly. Yes. Everyone is so excited about that possibility. All right. Let's, uh, let me ask you about Mars. So, um, there's a guy named Elon Musk and, uh, he seems to want to take something called Dogecoin there. First of the month. I'm just, I'm just kidding about the Dogecoin. I don't even know what the heck is up with that whole, um, I think, uh, I think humor has power in the 21st century in a way to spread ideas in the most positive way. So I love that kind of humor because it makes people smile, but it also kind of sneaks. It's like a Trojan horse for cool ideas. You you open with humor and you, uh, like the humor is the appetizer. And then the main meal is the science and the engineering anyway, uh, do you think it's possible to colonize Mars or other planets in the solar system, but we're especially looking to Mars. Is there something about planets that make them very harsh to humans? Is there something in particular you think about and maybe in a high like big picture perspective, do you have a hope we, we do in fact become a multi planetary species? I do think that if our species survives long enough and we don't wipe ourselves out or get wiped out by some other means that we will eventually be able to colonize other planets. I do not expect that to happen in my lifetime. I mean, tourists may go to Mars, tourists, people who commit years of their life to go into Mars as a tourist may go to Mars. Um, I don't think that we will colonize it. Um, is there a sense why it's just too harsh on the environment to, uh, to, to, like it's too costly to build something habitable there for a large population. I think that we need to do a lot of work and learning how to use the resources that are are on the planet already to do the things we need. So if you're talking about someone going there for a few months, um, so we'll back up a little bit. There are many things that make Mars not hospitable, temperature, you can't breathe the air, you need a pressure suit, even if you're on the surface, the radiation environment is, you know, even in all of those things, the radiation environment is too harsh for the human body. Um, all of those things seem like they could eventually have technological solutions. Um, the challenge, the, the real significant challenge to me seems to be the, the creation of a self sustaining civilization there. You know, you can bring pressure suits, you can bring oxygen to breathe, but those are all in limited supply. And if we're going to colonize it, we need to find ways to make use of the resources that are there to do things like produce food, produce the air, the humans need to keep breathing just in order to make it self sustaining. There's a tremendous amount of work that has to be done. And people are working on these problems, but I think that's going to be a major obstacle in going from visiting where we can bring everything we need to survive in the short term to actually colonizing. Yeah. I find that whole project of the human species quite inspiring these like huge moonshot projects. Somebody I was reading something, um, in terms of the source of food that's that may be the most effective on Mars is you could farm insects. That's the easiest thing to farm. So we'd be eating like cockroaches before living on Mars because that's the easiest thing to actually, um, as a source of protein. So growing a source of protein is the easiest thing as insects. I just imagine this giant for people who are afraid of insects. This is not a pleasant, maybe you're not supposed to even think of it that way. It'd be like a cockroach milkshake or something like that. Right. I wonder if, have people been working on the genetic engineering of, of insects to make them radiation friendly, right. Or pressure resistant or whatever. What can possibly go wrong with making radiation resistant, they're already like survived everything. Plus I, um, I took an allergy test, um, in Austin. So there's everybody's alert is like the allergy levels are super high there. Uh, and, uh, one of the things, apparently I'm not allergic to any insects except cockroaches. It's hilarious. So maybe, uh, um, well, I'm going to use that as a, you know, people use, uh, an excuse that I'm allergic to cats to not have cats. I'm going to use that as an excuse to, uh, not go to Mars as one of the first batch of people. I was going to ask if you had the opportunity, would you go? Yeah, I'm joking about the cockroach thing. I would definitely go. I love challenges. I love, I love things. I love doing things where the possibility of death is, is, uh, not insignificant because it makes me appreciate it more. Meditating on death makes me appreciate life. And uh, when the meditation on death is forced on you because of how difficult the task is, I enjoy those kinds of things. Most people don't, it seems like, but I love the idea of difficult journeys, um, for no purpose whatsoever, except exploration, going into the unknown, seeing what the limits of the human mind and the human body are is like, what the hell else is this whole journey that we're on for? I, I, uh, but it could be because I grew up in the Soviet Union. There's a kind of love for space, like the, the space race, the cold war created. I don't know if still it permeates American culture as much, but especially with the dad as a scientist, I think I've, I've loved the idea of humans striving out towards the stars always, like from the engineering perspective has been really exciting. I don't know if people love that as much in America anymore. I think, uh, Elon is bringing that back a little bit, that excitement about rockets and going out there. But, uh, so that's, that's hopeful, but for me, I always loved that idea. From a alien scientist perspective, if you were to look back on earth, is there something interesting you could say about earth? Like, how would you summarize earth? Like in a report, you know, like, uh, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, like if you had to report, like write a paper on earth or like a letter, like a, like a one pager, um, summarizing the contents of the surface and the atmosphere, is there, is there something interesting? Like, do you ever take that kind of perspective on it? I know you like volcanism, so volcanoes that will probably be in the report. I was going to say that's where I was going to go first. Uh, there are a few things to say about the atmosphere, but in terms of the volcanoes, so one of the really interesting puzzles to me in planetary science is so we can, we can look out there and we've been talking about surfaces and volcanoes and atmospheres and things like that. But that is just, you know, this tiny little veneer on the outside of the planet and most of the planet is completely sort of inaccessible to telescopes or to spacecraft missions. You can drill a meter into the surface, but you know, that's still really the veneer. Um, and one of the cool puzzles is looking at what's going on on the surface and trying to figure out what's happening underneath or just any kind of indirect means that you have to study the interior because you can't dig into it directly, even on Earth. You can't dig deep into Earth. Uh, so from that perspective, looking at Earth, um, one thing that you would be able to tell from orbit, given enough time, is that Earth has tectonic plates. So you would see that volcanoes follow the edges. If you trace where all the volcanoes are on Earth, they follow these lines that trace the edges of the plates. And similarly, you would see things like the, uh, Hawaiian string of volcanoes that you could infer just like, you know, we did as people actually living on Earth, that the plates are moving over some plume that's coming up through the mantle. And so you could use that to say, if the aliens could look at where the volcanoes are, are happening on Earth and say something about the fact that Earth has plate tectonics, which makes it really unique in the solar system. Um... Oh, really? So the other planets don't have plate tectonics? It's the only one that has plate tectonics. Yeah. What about Io and the friction and all that, that's not plate tectonics? What's the difference between... Oh, it's plate tectonics, like another layer of like solid rock that moves around and there's cracks. Exactly. Yeah. So, so Earth has plates of solid rock sitting on top of a partially molten layer, and those plates are kind of shifting around. Um, on Io, it doesn't have that. And the volcanism is what we call heat pipe volcanism. It's the magma just punches a hole through the crust and comes out on the surface. I mean, that's a simplification, but that's effectively what's happening. Through the freezing cold crust? Yes. Very cold, very rigid crust. Yeah. How do you, how does that look like, by the way? I don't think we've mentioned, so the gas that's expelled, like if we were to look at it, is it beautiful or is it like boring? The gas? I mean, the whole thing, like the magma punching through, the icy... Oh my gosh. Yes, I'm sure it would be beautiful, and the pictures we've seen of it are beautiful. You have, so the magma will come out of the lava, will come out of these fissures, and you have these curtains of lava that are maybe even a kilometer high. So if you looked at videos, I don't know how many volcano videos you've looked at on Earth, but you sometimes see a tiny, tiny version of this in Iceland. You see just these sheets of magma coming out of a fissure when you have this really low viscosity magma, sort of water like, coming out of these sheets. And the plumes that come out, because there's no atmosphere, all the plume molecules are just plume particles, where they end up is just a function of the direction that they left the vent, so they're all following ballistic trajectories, and you end up with these umbrella plumes. You don't get these sort of complicated plumes that you have on Earth that are occurring because of how that material is interacting with the atmosphere that's there. You just have these huge umbrellas, and it's been hypothesized, actually, that the atmosphere

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