特別節目·中文精讀

埃裡克·溫斯坦:科學、數學與社會中的革命性思想

Eric Weinstein: Revolutionary Ideas in Science, Math, and Society

數學家兼播客主談幾何統一理論構想、學術生態與跨學科思想的碰撞。

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埃裡克·溫斯坦(Eric Weinstein)有一個想法,被《Edge》主編約翰·布羅克曼(John Brockman)拒絕發表:我們一直在等一個通用人工智慧來嚇唬自己,真正可怕的東西卻已經在這裡了,它就是人工生命。

他是個數學家、經濟學家、物理學家,同時是 Thiel Capital 的董事總經理。他是"思想暗網"(Intellectual Dark Web)這個說法的創造者,這個詞指向一小群鬆散聯結的公共知識分子,山姆·哈里斯、喬丹·彼得森、史蒂芬·平克、喬·羅根都在其中。

Lex Fridman 問他緊不緊張。他說,怕得要死。

然後他們從《功夫熊貓》聊起。這部他最喜歡的電影裡,那隻烏龜才是真正的老師,師父(Shifu)不算。烏龜和主角只見過兩次面,第一次還幾乎不算數。整部電影的核心在於:最重要的教導,是在一次極短的對話裡完成的。

問到他生命裡誰扮演了烏龜這個角色,他說出兩個名字。一個是祖父 Harry Rubin 和祖母 Sophie Rubin。另一個是湯姆·萊勒(Tom Lehrer)。

給孩子一張湯姆·萊勒的唱片,等於黑掉他的一生

給孩子聽湯姆·萊勒的唱片,你等於摧毀了他們後來被惡意軟體接管的能力。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

溫斯坦說這話時是認真的。湯姆·萊勒的東西如此不恭、如此機智、如此聰明、如此下流,以至於它毀掉了很多人的"過正常生活"的能力。他有個習慣:遇到那些明顯偏離典型表現的人,他會問一句,你是湯姆·萊勒的粉絲嗎?對方給出肯定回答的機率高得嚇人。

大多數人只認識萊勒的少數幾首歌:《毒死公園裡的鴿子》《元素歌》,也許還有《梵蒂岡拉格》。一個人如果只知道這幾首,溫斯坦心裡就有了判斷。

萊勒那首提到托洛茨基、模仿吉爾伯特(Gilbert)風格的歌,密集到近乎瘋狂的程度,用毫無意義的文字遊戲去超越吉爾伯特本人。溫斯坦說,這顯然是一種智力。要構造出那樣的東西,非常難。

他最喜歡的萊勒歌詞是那句關於德國人的:曾經所有德國人都好戰而刻薄,但這不可能再發生,我們在 1918 年給他們上了一課,從那以後他們幾乎沒再打擾我們。

這是另一種智力。把一個極其恐怖的東西講成可口、好笑的樣子,同時展示出寫作者本人的人性。溫斯坦說,萊勒寫出所有這些可怕句子的過程裡,透出來的是他其實是個敏感、美好的靈魂,他把痛苦透過幽默和優雅疏匯出去。

他在歐洲、在俄羅斯都見過同一種幽默。那代人需要用這種幽默,來消化戰爭造成的痛苦。

他兒子 13 歲那年,成年禮的禮物是和偶像湯姆·萊勒共進晚餐。那年萊勒 88 歲,思維銳利如刀,不恭、風趣。溫斯坦說,這個世界上有些人你必須在他們還活著的時候見一面,萊勒就是其中之一。

有些人類經驗,最好什麼都不知道

聊到俄羅斯。溫斯坦說,很多美國人並不真正欣賞俄式幽默。在斯大林時代那條著名的第 58 條陰影下講笑話,你得萬分小心。一份像《鱷魚》那樣的俄式諷刺雜誌,在那種環境裡能存在本身就很荒謬。

他提到一個殘酷的事實:人類經驗裡有某些領域,最好是什麼都不知道,但東歐對這些領域知道得太多。這讓維索茨基(Vladimir Vysotsky)的歌、普希金的散文有了別處不能有的分量。他猜美國人也曾在南北戰爭、奴隸制和吉姆·克勞時代,或者勞工戰爭裡煤礦與鋼鐵僱主的殘酷之下,體會過類似的東西。

但要真正理解一種集體的文化,你得經歷過那套選擇性壓力。

Lex 問他:如果戰爭能帶來文學、藝術、幽默和音樂,那也不錯吧?溫斯坦的回答帶著諷刺:除了死亡和毀滅,戰爭裡幾乎所有事情都是好的。沒有死亡,它就帶來浪漫,一切都很好。這正是我們總被戰爭吸引的原因,我們對它懷有一種極其曖昧的關係。它讓生活變得真實、緊迫、有意義,代價卻不可接受。而這個代價,從來沒有像今天這麼高。

汽車有骨骼、神經、消化系統,唯獨缺少一個生殖系統

話題轉向人工智慧。溫斯坦糾正了一個用詞:不要叫它"數字世界",叫它"邏輯世界",與"物理世界"相對。

為什麼是邏輯?因為就算我們把愛因斯坦的大腦儲存下來,作為物理物件它對我們毫無用處。我們沒法在邏輯層面處理裡面存的東西。某個東西以邏輯形式儲存,和以物理形式儲存,是兩回事。他並不否認邏輯世界有物質基礎,但它值得被識別為一個獨立的層次,這個層次不必和邏輯閘、0 和 1 繫結。

真正複雜的、能類比我們生殖系統的東西,人類目前只造出來一樣,就是軟體。軟體能自我複製。

他講了一個反覆用過的例子。拿一輛車來看,它幾乎具備每一種生理系統:骨骼是車架,神經系統是車載電腦,消化系統是油箱,免疫系統是過濾裝置。它唯一沒有的,是生殖系統。但如果你能對某個程序呼叫 Spawn,你就有了生殖系統。這意味著你可以造出同時擁有變異、遺傳和差異成功這三個要素的東西。

有這三樣,就有一套選擇性壓力。

蘭花和蚌:無腦的東西如何愚弄高智商的獵物

他有兩個最喜歡的例子。一個是蘭花的一支。這種花模仿傳粉昆蟲的雌性,騙雄性來和一朵假雌性交配,通常由最下面那片花瓣扮演。花不用付出花蜜作為誘餌,它在騙人。

另一個是密蘇里州清澈溪流裡的一種蚌,Lampsilis。它騙鱸魚來咬一片含有幼體的肉質唇。那片唇看起來和鱸魚愛吃的一種魚一模一樣。鱸魚一咬,幼體炸開,夾住魚鰓,寄生其中,再借著鱸魚把自己散佈出去。

這兩個系統裡,是高智商的獵物被低等生命形式愚弄。而雕刻出這些有說服力誘餌的,恰恰是被愚弄過的目標物種本身累積的智慧。目標變聰明到能避開某一招時,那些弱的模仿者就掉隊、淘汰,只有更好的活下來。被寄生的目標物種越來越聰明,那個沒有智慧的東西越來越"像"聰明,兩者之間是一場軍備競賽。

結論讓人不舒服:寄生我們根本不需要通用人工智慧。人類自己把自己愚弄一遍,就夠了。

他舉了個假想:一個奈及利亞詐騙程式,自己寫詐騙郵件,用誰給它打了比特幣來判斷郵件裡哪些部分該保留、哪些該變異丟棄。你不需要它有一丁點智慧,就能得到一個被完全不知道自己在幹什麼的東西寄生的噩夢場景。

免疫系統給了他一種對照的安慰。免疫系統不知道下一個病原體長什麼樣,但它有一小套跨越性的元件。只要這套系統足夠有表達力,任何形狀、任何結合區都能用現有的"樂高"拼出來,你就有信心面對未知,因為組合的可能性足以抵達任何需要的構型。

這就是雙刃劍。表達力越強,越安全,也越可怕。

Lex 提到下週要去見 OpenAI 的創始人。溫斯坦說他聽說他們下一代文字生成系統遲遲不願釋出,出於擔心。他說聽到這個很高興,但他們最終還是會發布。

他自己更傾向的思路是"用技術防止技術":用進一步的創新去對沖創新的副作用。但整件事是在加速往坡下滾,我們是不是擁護它、反對它,可能都不重要。他相信確實有人把某些東西壓了下來,死的時候比本可以有的更窮,連名字都沒人記得。

我們為什麼還沒把自己炸飛,這是個謎

他提到愛德華·泰勒(Edward Teller)寫給利奧·西拉德(Leo Szilard)的一封信。西拉德當時在琢磨二戰末期如何控制原子武器的使用。泰勒在很多人口中是個魔鬼,但在那封信裡展現出相當高階的道德思考:我們活下去的機會很渺茫,唯一的希望是讓戰爭變得不可想象。

然後他推薦了一部電影,《桂河大橋》。片子裡被俘的英軍戰俘,因為一心想把橋修好,最終幾乎和日軍看守合作了。他借這個故事說,太多人在做技術工作時,心裡沒有真正感受到自己在玩的是什麼。

我們其實沒有真正感受過自己站在什麼地方。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

9/11 出現時,它和美國本土經歷過的一切都太不一樣,像一記徹底的重擊。他把它看作一個高度有創造力、有決心的研發團隊,深藏在阿富汗腹地,向美國展示了一批此前沒人選擇去觸發的漏洞。他說他還知道幾種別的手法,從不公開談論。它們都和一件事有關:到目前為止,想製造混亂和毀滅的那些人,想象力其實相當有限。

我們這個時代最大的謎團,是 1945 年以來世界驚人地穩定。美國展示過在憤怒中使用核武器的能力,從那以後卻再沒發生過同等量級的事。中間有過幾次千鈞一髮,有過失誤,有過邊緣政策。現在我們習慣了那種感覺:哦,什麼都不會發生。太久沒出事了,我們腦子裡形成了一個錯誤印象。

所以他在本·夏皮羅(Ben Shapiro)的節目上,主張恢復核裝置的地面試驗。因為現在有一代人,他們的成長經驗是:特朗普和金正恩在推特上互懟,沒什麼,那只是擺姿態。人人都在電子遊戲模式裡,而 1945 年以來,電子遊戲模式一直是那個正確的判斷。

他擔心的是沒經歷過生存威脅的一代。美國曾有一部電視劇《次日》(The Day After),講核交換之後的生活,整整一代人看過。現在沒有這種集體性的、具身化的經歷。他說老一輩做的一件最不負責任的事,就是提供了一個漂亮的花園,把玫瑰叢上的刺全剪掉,把所有稜角都打磨圓滑,於是人們形成了一種完全不真實的印象:一切都會沒事的。

他想起一個俄羅斯傳統:婚禮當天,新人去烈士紀念碑前獻花。人生最幸福的那天,去祭拜在斯大林格勒戰死的人。他說自己對共產主義沒什麼好感,但蘇聯時代有些做法是積極的,讓人民知道生命究竟有多嚴肅。俄羅斯的嚴肅模式,比美國的模式更好。

9/11 之後有過一小段餘韻,但真正改變指標的是 9/12。那天所有人都在那裡,沒人想說話,沒人想衝到電腦前傾瀉自己的深刻感想。因為大家短暫地醒了。

他說他這輩子只見過全球敘事被真正打斷三次。一次是特朗普當選,一次是雷曼兄弟倒閉(當時所有人都知道貝爾斯登沒那麼重要,雷曼才意味著 AIG 是下一個),第三次就是 9/11。他 53 歲,只記得三次。俄克拉荷馬城爆炸案沒能打斷敘事,因為它不夠深。

到了 9/12,覺醒剛開始,當權者給出了指示:去購物。這裡有兩種成分。一部分是自發的,一部分是刻意的。刻意的那部分明白,人一旦聚攏起來,會變成一股可怕的力量。

然後他談到全球主義敘事和民族主義敘事的拉扯。前者眼裡,國家是臨時的、狹隘的、沙文主義的。後者的回應是:這是我交稅的地方,是我服兵役的地方,是我投票的地方,是我拿護照的地方。你憑什麼,就因為你能在別處賺錢,就告訴我我對同胞的義務可以大幅縮水?

他說這兩種極端都是噩夢。民族主義失控是噩夢,國際主義失控也是噩夢。問題是要把鐘擺推向某種平衡,對那些和我們共享法律與公民身份的人負有更高的照顧義務,同時不忘記對全球體系的照顧義務。這話本該是常識,問題出在有些人可以從拋棄對自己體系內其他人的義務中獲利,而這種事我們幹了幾十年。

理論物理學是人類最深刻的社群,正在自我了結

聊到學術。溫斯坦說這是個可怕的選擇。在學術體制內部,你必須不斷向共識表忠心,靠一些幾乎顯微級別的異端來建立聲譽。周圍都是很有能力、很聰明的人,彼此結成深厚的社會網路,行為水準很高。

走到體制外,你會遇到瘋子和怪人,這些人通常不認同共識,也幾乎都迷失了。關鍵問題是:進步更可能來自一個奇蹟般留在系統裡、能承受更大異端的人,還是來自系統外一個保持紀律、享有不必隨時表忠心之自由的人?

他談嬰兒潮泡沫。金融泡沫通常幾年就破,嬰兒潮泡沫卻持續了很久。所有那些意識形態、行為模式、規範都是它的產物。弦理論幾乎是純粹的嬰兒潮現象,那需要極高的數學能力才做得動。

他不認為弦理論毫無價值。恰恰相反,弦理論家澄清了大量優美的數學和物理結構。但他認為它的交付物不會到貨,整個計劃很大程度上是給一批數學和幾何天賦極高的嬰兒潮物理學家準備的"平權法案",好讓他們能說自己正在量子引力框架內做點什麼。

真正讓他心驚的是忠誠是如何被灌輸的。在弦理論計劃裡,幾乎一切都被追問,唯獨某些事不能問。1983、1984 年他看到物理學界開始發瘋,而數學界儘管毛病一堆,至少還沒瘋,所以他轉去數學裡研究同樣的物件。代價很大,他失去了物理直覺。但那總好過一個再教育營。

他仍然認為理論物理社群是人類創造過的最深刻的智識社群,沒有第二。這些人在業餘時間發明了分子生物學,薛定諤寫過《生命是什麼》。雷達、兩彈、半導體、電晶體、摩爾定律、全球資訊網,都是物理學的產物。經濟學、化學、分子生物學,歸根結底都從物理學裡長出來。

他們簽了世界上最糟糕的一份授權協議。如果他們對每一次使用電晶體、每一次使用 URL 收費,今天的世界會完全不同。他們創造了我們的經濟,我們卻不好好供養他們,不給他們一臺加速器去玩,也不在他們失敗幾十年後幫他們恢復。

標準模型裡真正有理論貢獻的最年輕的人,生於 1951 年。1973、1974 年之後,幾乎沒有理論物理的重大進展把人送進斯德哥爾摩。這些人自己的表現也糟透了:他們不承認自己身處何處,不坦白真正面對什麼問題,不說明自己究竟能有多確定。他們還把一些最精彩、其他領域急需的發現扣在手裡,比如規範場論,那是牛頓和萊布尼茨微積分的升級版,數學家至少還能把它傳出去。比如重整化理論,它對處理不同層次、不同層級現象的所有學科都該是標準操作。

這些傢伙坐在一座巨大的智識金礦上,很多東西從沒在任何地方顯露過。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

他舉了個小例子。他剛在推特上提到霍伯曼(Chuck Hoberman)的一個開關,展示了四面體的自對偶性如何實現為一個連桿機構。這在他看來近乎瑣碎,卻能變成一件了不起的玩具,說不定能讓霍伯曼賺一大筆。

他說這棟樓裡發生過一件事:他在這裡撮合了國家科學院、國家科學基金會,透過政府、大學、產業研究圓桌會議,用外國勞動力去摧毀美國學者的議價能力。就在這個地下室完成的。

他把學術系統形容為功能上瘋了。哈佛在功能上瘋了。金融危機已經說清楚這一點:有一大段時間,所有那些打著領帶、用男中音說話、名字後面帶正確學位的人,都在說波動性已經被消滅,我們進入了大穩健時代。他們全都瘋了。誰是對的?納西姆·塔勒布、努里爾·魯比尼。後來他們說市場瘋了,其實市場早就瘋了,只是突然又瘋了一層。

他提到美國數學會發表過一篇叫《讓開》的文章,主張大學數學系裡的白人男性應該騰出位置,讓年輕的黑人女性接手。在這個語境下,他區分了兩種多樣性:思想的多樣性,和人的多樣性。

回到思想:什麼能讓一篇論文進入期刊?所有領域都在承壓,因為沒有一個領域表現得足夠出色,足夠到能像過去那樣顛覆我們說話和思考的方式。

關於波普爾和證偽主義,他的看法很尖銳。科學方法在聰明人腦子裡成了一劑毒藥,一種疾病。大多數東西並不靠那套方法做出來,那只是它們的檢驗方式。理論和實驗之間有對話。所有人都該去讀保羅·狄拉克(Paul Dirac)1963 年發在《科學美國人》上的文章。狄拉克看起來在談薛定諤方程和薛定諤沒能推進自己工作的失誤,其實他可能也在談自己:他的方程預言電子該有反粒子,而當時已知的唯一帶正電的粒子是質子。海森堡指出,那你的反粒子質子豈不是該和電子一樣重?這不就否定了你的理論?

理論稍微偏一點,就和實驗不符,但這不等於理論錯了。問題在於,我們把科學方法、波普爾、證偽主義當成神像,因為它能保護我們不受瘋想法侵入。這是第一類錯誤和第二類錯誤之間的平衡。我們在一個方向上壓到了極限。

那怎麼判斷誰該被清理,誰該被保護成那種"可能改變一切、但極其煩人的時間黑洞"?他說這靠的是非常人性的東西,規則和公平那套在這兒不管用。

去讀《雙螺旋》。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

他說吉姆·沃森(Jim Watson)不只是發現了 DNA 的三維結構,還是個好得不得了的寫作者。在他變成那個"混蛋"之前,他差點毀掉自己的名聲。溫斯坦說,沃森太重要了,重要到不能只交給沃森自己。那本書告訴你更多關於什麼才真正推動指標的東西。書裡講弗朗西斯·克里克(Francis Crick)是個所有人都暗自知道他超級聰明、又煩得要死的傢伙。也講了查加夫(Chargaff),那個搞出核苷酸等摩爾關係、本該拿下 DNA 結構的人。

沃森談到錯過生物學心跳的一次顫動,寫得美到光是想想就讓人發抖。

我們常常知道誰該被敬畏,我們需要資助我們害怕的人。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

那些浪費我們時間的人要被排除在對話之外。可能會在兩個方向上都犯錯,但大部分時候,我們知道誰是那種可能做成的討厭鬼,誰是真正沒什麼可貢獻的吹牛者。規則到不了那裡,靠的是某種直覺。

Lex 提到自己聽說有一大群人相信地球是平的,這讓他停下來問:怎麼會存在這樣一個社群?溫斯坦換了個問法:這個社群為什麼是穩定的?不管我們做了什麼,都沒能抹掉它。他們在做一個不會兌現的長期押注。也許我們還沒把根號二的理性想透,也許某天某個天才真能解決。也許我們終有一天能降落在木星表面去探索。這些是永遠不會發生的瘋事。

社交媒體推給你的是"不感興趣"的東西,而不是"重要"的東西

他攻擊社交媒體的演算法邏輯。這些平臺給我們推送一種認知負擔,只會通向瘋狂:多看看和你意見不同的人,這樣對你有好處。

他的回答是:不。和"有趣的、你目前不同意、但可能為真"的東西碰撞,才有好處。他根本不在意自己是否同意某件事。他要知道的是,為什麼是這個特定的、令人不快的東西被推給他?是因為它可能為真嗎?他可以寫一個生成器,造出無窮多沒人需要看的令人不快的句子。

在推給我令人不快的東西之前,請先告訴我,為什麼這個問題裡有一個值得看的面向。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

他說現在這些網路正用這個問題非常泛泛地搪塞:我們正在研究它,我們在努力做好。可它能最佳化的是你"不喜歡"什麼,不是你"該聽"什麼。這個討論被壓在一個極低的水平上。他問:能建出谷歌、Facebook、推特的人,會不認識幾個能把討論提升一個層次的聰明人嗎?他們有那些人的電話。但那是另一回事,他們正把這些人推出那些房間。他們在最佳化一些我們看不見的東西。利潤是一部分,沒人質疑。但他們也在為政治控制最佳化,在為"我們在巴基斯坦有生意"最佳化,於是有些話題他們不願碰。

他說這是一場假對話。你不妨直說你們有基礎的使用者參與度指標,別假裝在思考什麼深刻的問題。你們能把 Gmail 做到幾乎永不宕機,那是了不起的基礎設施,但這不代表你們就能處理人類行為和人類理解這些困難問題。

他丟擲自己最喜歡的問題之一:為什麼我在科技市場買的每一件硬體,都被配置成一個監聽裝置?為什麼我的鏡頭沒有物理遮擋?1970 年代的相機是有鏡頭蓋的。多做一個物理快門能貴幾塊錢?為什麼我的攝像頭指示燈是由軟體控制的,而不是一個無法繞過的物理機制,讓燈亮本身就證明攝像頭在工作?為什麼你們把我所有的裝置都設定成對你們自己有點難度的監聽裝置,而我們連這個都不談?

Lex 說希望這些關於隱私的討論正在發生,這比想象的複雜。溫斯坦糾正他:這件事的表層是隱私,底下是社會控制。為什麼我對自己身上的控制桿沒有控制權?為什麼沒有一個簡潔的介面,讓我能撥動開關,或者至少看到演算法在做什麼?

關於那些刻意和自發,他說有兩層,向量不會坍縮在任何一個軸上。但任何聲稱意圖完全不存在的人,是個孩子。

人一邊是工人,一邊是靈魂

Lex 問他資本主義與自動化。溫斯坦說,"人作為一個工人"是個舊觀念。人作為靈魂,是另一個物件。用物件導向程式設計打比方,人有一個工人屬性,也有一個靈魂屬性。

過去有一段時間,人身上的那個工人,有能力餵養人身上的那個靈魂。問題在於,我們必須分清兩種對社會價值的主張:一種是作為工人,一種是作為靈魂。靈魂需要滋養、尊嚴、意義、目的。

只要你做的事不是高度重複的,你還有時間。但如果你的工作是高度重複的、沒什麼生成性的,你就在 for 迴圈和 while 迴圈的準星裡。計算機最擅長的就是重複行為。所謂重複,未必是已經發生過的事,也可以是透過組合可能性產生的、從未出現過的重複,只要它有迴圈的特徵,你就有麻煩。

一個社會里資質平平的普通人,仍然有繁殖的需要,有保有尊嚴的需要。當資本主義拋棄了中位數那個人,它就快碰到革命了。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

他看到一股大規模走向社會主義的趨勢,因為資本家反應太慢,不願意面對這個事實:一個工人可能無法為自己的價值提出主張了。讓他擔心的是,資本家不夠資本主義,看不懂這一點。你非要把社會推向威權控制,就因為你意識不到很多人在市場上守不住自己,他們的邊際勞動產出太低,低到養不起他們作為靈魂的尊嚴。

他想起雷曼兄弟倒閉那天,他從曼哈頓的辦公室往下看,心裡冒出一個念頭:當沒有金融系統去激勵這些人來上班,誰來告訴他們需要來上班?

所以他要抱怨的物件是資本家,社會主義者反倒不在他的靶子上。你們太蠢了。你們用那套老話去招致革命:再努力一點,靠自己爬起來。這在一定程度上管用,但我們明顯正走向一個地方:貢獻的需要和消費的需要之間,沒有任何東西把它們聯絡起來。而資本主義可能給不出答案,因為那也許只是一段暫時現象。

他讓人去看自己寫的一篇文章,《人擇資本主義與新奇經濟》。他認為,如果人們遲遲不醒來,本可以用來拯救資本主義的那段時間就被浪費了。他不想讓這件事在威權控制下完成。我們越是堅稱,那些在生育年齡沒能在社會上活得很好、沒能成家的人,都是個人層面的失敗,這個資訊就越噁心。我們到底變成了什麼,才會把芝加哥學派模型信到看不見自己正在摧毀的人性?

他厭惡共產主義,家裡的上一代和它有過糾葛,那是錯誤、糟糕的想法。但我們必須想清楚,怎麼讓那些靈魂得到滋養和尊重,資本主義最好拿出一個答案。他押注資本主義,但他對自己這支隊伍很失望。

他主張超資本主義和超社會主義的耦合,兩樣一起要。得允許最有生產力的人去創造奇蹟,別再拿各種"好心的"額外要求拖累他們。

善有未來,好沒有。因為"好"最後通向古拉格。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

你欠我們你的掙扎,但不欠任何人的成功

Lex 提起他當天發的一條推文,一個關於名聲的公式:假設每一個單位的 fame,都帶上對應數量的 stalkers 和 haters。F 取決於 S 和 H。

溫斯坦說別把這些太當真,280 個字元說不清一件事,那算不得數學定律。他之所以用一個"假設",是因為他還有數學家追求精確的慾望。

問他怎麼最佳化這個方程。他說想更善良一點。對自己更善良,對別人更善良。想能用心,有同情心,這些很重要。他給出一句自我描述:他在分析上接近一種譜系的處理方式,非常字面化,可以在任何時刻對你進入"雨人"模式。他管這個叫"兼性自閉"(facultative autism)。他說這話會惹人生氣,因為人們希望自閉症被尊重,但你看他寫程式碼或做數學的時候,就是那樣。

他說要努力把自己整合起來。回到工人和靈魂那對張力,很多人用犧牲一個的方式去最佳化另一個。他在社交媒體上掙扎,在有人威脅他家人時掙扎,在人們所承受的痛苦裡掙扎。如果只有一句話他想推出去:所有人,包括他自己,都在拼命掙扎,因為沒有人有義務替你做你的掙扎。

但話鋒一轉,他說如果你在掙扎,你在嘗試,你在想自己錯在哪、在哪裡辜負了家人、朋友、同事和所服務的人,那就給自己一個喘息的機會。他和失敗與成功有一輩子的關係,沒有哪一段人生是兩者缺席的。

很多人覺得這種生活很光鮮。他要去和山姆·哈里斯做一場演出,人們會聽兩個人在臺上聊天,這本身就很瘋。他一直在想怎麼讓那些聽眾獲得最大的價值,這也是他做播客的原因。

你欠我們你的掙扎。但你不欠你的家人、同事、愛人或親人成功。(埃裡克·溫斯坦)

只要你還站在那裡,還在把自己扶起來,就要認識到:這個沒有足夠動力去支撐我們機構的經濟新格局,已經讓那些爬到機構頂端的人變得相當殘酷。每個人都在說謊,沒有誰是真正的說真話者。儘量守住你的人性。

如果你在失敗,如果你掙扎著在想到底哪裡做錯了,而這些你本可以做到,那麼請記住,不全是你的錯。我們處在一個全球性的處境裡。他說他沒遇到過誠實、善良、優秀、成功這四樣全佔的人。沒有任何人佔全了所有格子。人們要麼想把失敗全推給社會,這不合理,你必須掙扎,你必須嘗試;要麼說你要百分之百為自己的失敗負責,這純屬胡說。

以下是這場對話裡可以直接拿走的幾條:

  • 把"工人"和"靈魂"分開看。判斷你手頭的工作危險不危險,關鍵指標是它是否高度重複、是否有迴圈特徵。有迴圈特徵,就在計算機的準星裡;有生成性,你還有時間。
  • 在討論某個令人不快、與你相左的觀點之前,先問一句:為什麼是這一個被推到我面前?是因為它更可能為真,還是演算法只是在最佳化"我不喜歡"?只和"有趣、你不同意、但可能為真"的東西碰撞,不和純粹令人不快的東西碰撞。
  • 對攝像頭、麥克風、各種感測裝置,預設它們已被配置成監聽裝置,追著廠商要物理遮擋、要非軟體控制的指示燈、要能看到演算法在做什麼的控制桿。這件事的表層是隱私,底下是社會控制。
  • 用"是否具備變異、遺傳、差異成功三要素"去判斷一個系統有沒有演化能力。任何同時具備這三樣的東西,無論有沒有智慧,都可能有寄生性的行為。這是評估新系統風險的一個具體抓手。
  • 如果你正在掙扎,給自己一個喘息的機會。你欠這個世界你的掙扎,但不欠任何人成功。別把失敗百分之百歸到自己頭上,也別全推給社會,這兩句都是假的。
文稿由本站用語音識別模型(基於官方釋出音訊)機器轉寫,可能有識別錯誤,人名與數字請以音訊為準。
[00:00:00] The following is a conversation with Eric Weinstein. He's a mathematician, economist, physicist and the managing director of Thiel Capital. He coined the term and you can say is the founder of the Intellectual Dark Web, which is a loosely small group of public intellectuals that includes Sam Harris, Jordan Peterson, Steven Pinker, Joe Rogan, Michael Shermer and a few others. This conversation is part of the artificial intelligence podcast at MIT and beyond. [00:00:30] If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, iTunes or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman spelled F our ID. And now here's my conversation with Eric Weinstein. Are you nervous about this scared shitless, OK, thebus, because you mentioned Kung Fu Panda is one of your favorite movies. [00:01:11] It has the usual profound, massive student dynamic going on, so who was who has been a teacher, that significant influence the direction of your thinking and life's work? So if you are the for panda, who was your shifu? Oh, well, it's interesting because I didn't see Shifu as being the teacher who was the teacher master, the turtle or the turtle. Right. [00:01:34] They only meet twice in the entire film and the first conversation sort of doesn't count. So the magic of the film, in fact, its point, yeah. Is that the teaching that really matters is transferred? During a single conversation. And it's very brief and so who played that role in my life, I would say either my grandfather, Harry Rubin and his wife, Sophie Rubin, my grandmother, or Tom Lehrer. [00:02:11] Tom Lehrer, yeah. In which way, if you give a child Tom Lehrer records, what you do is you destroy their ability to be taken over by later malware. And it's so irreverent, so witty, so clever, so obscene that it destroys the ability to lead a normal life for many people. So if I meet somebody who's usually. [00:02:40] Really shifted from any kind of neurotypical presentation, I'll often ask them, are you a Tom Lehrer fan? And the odds that they will respond are quite high. Now, Tom Lehrer is poisoning pigeons in the park. Tom Lehrer. That's very interesting. There are a small number of Tom Lehrer songs that broke into the general population poisoning pigeons in the park. The Element song, perhaps the Vatican rag. Hmm. So when you meet somebody who knows those songs but doesn't know you're judging me right now, aren't you harshly? [00:03:12] No, but you're Russian, so that is the unknown, Nikolayevna. It's a little bychowski that says, yeah. Yeah. [00:03:18] So that was a song about plagiarism that was, in fact plagiarized, which most people don't know from Danny Kaye, where Danny Kaye did a song called Stanislavski of the Musky Arts. [00:03:29] And so Tom Lehrer did this brilliant job of plagiarizing a song about and making it about plagiarism and then making it about this mathematician who worked in non Euclidian geometry that was like giving heroin to a child. It was extremely addictive and eventually led me. To a lot of different places, one of which may have been a Ph.D. in mathematics. And he was also a lecturer in mathematics, I believe, at Harvard, something like that. I just had dinner with him. [00:04:00] In fact, when my son turned 13, we didn't tell him. [00:04:05] But his bar mitzvah present was dinner with his hero, Tom Lehrer. And Tom Lehrer was 88 years old, sharp as a tack, irreverent and funny as hell and just. You know, there are very few people in this world that you have to meet while they're still here, and that was definitely one for our family. So that wit is a reflection. Of intelligence in some kind of deep way, like where that would be a good test of intelligence, whether you're Tom Lehrer fan, so what do you think that is about wit, about that kind of humor, ability to see the absurdity in existence? [00:04:45] Well, do you think that's connected to intelligence or are we just two Jews on a mike that appreciate that kind of humor? [00:04:51] No, I think that it's absolutely connected to intelligence. So you can see it. There's a place where Tom Lehrer decides that he's going to lampoon Gilbert of Gilbert and Sullivan and he's going to outdo Gilbert with clever, meaningless wordplay, and he has forget the quality he's doing, Clementine, as if Gilbert and Sullivan wrote it. And he says that I Mr. Depressed. He insisted Mr. This Mr. De Pesters, she tried pestering sisters a festering blister, your best to resist or say I, the sister persisted the Mr. [00:05:21] Isisford Castro loyalty slip when he when she said I could have her her sisters. Cadaverine must surely have turned in a script that's so dense. It's so insane. Yeah. That that's clearly intelligence because it's hard to construct something like that. [00:05:36] If I look at my favorite Tom Lehrer Tom Lehrer lyric. You know, there's a perfectly absurd one, which is once all the Germans were warlike and mean, but that couldn't happen again, we taught them a lesson in 1918 and they've hardly bothered us since then. Right. That is a different kind of intelligence. [00:05:53] You know, you're taking something that is so horrific and you're you're sort of making it palatable and funny and demonstrating also just your humanity. [00:06:04] I mean, I think the thing that came through as as Tom Lehrer wrote all of these terrible, horrible lines was just what a sensitive and beautiful soul he was, who was channeling pain through humor and through grace. I've seen throughout Europe, throughout Russia, that same kind of humor emerge from the generation of World War Two, it seemed like that humor is required to somehow deal with the pain and the suffering of that that war created. [00:06:32] Well, you do need the environment to create the broad Slavic soul. I don't think that many Americans really appreciate Russian humor. How you had to joke during the time of, let's say, Article 58 under Stalin, you had to be very, very careful. You know, the concept of a Russian satirical magazine like Crocodylus doesn't make sense. So you have this cross-cultural problem that. [00:07:02] There are certain areas of human experience that it would be better to know nothing about, and quite unfortunately, Eastern Europe knows a great deal about them, which makes the, you know, the songs of Vladimir Vysotsky so potent, the, you know, the prose of Pushkin, whatever it is, you have to appreciate the depth of the Eastern European experience. And I would think that perhaps Americans knew something like this around the time of the Civil War or maybe, you know, under slavery and Jim Crow or even the harsh tyranny of the coal and steel employers during the labor wars. [00:07:45] But in general, I would say it's hard for us to understand and imagine the collective culture unless we have the system of selective pressures that, for example, Russians were subjected to. [00:07:59] So if there is one good thing that comes out of war, it's literature, art and humor, music? Oh, I don't think so. [00:08:09] I think almost everything is good about war except for death and destruction. Right. Without the death it would bring. [00:08:17] And the romance of it, the whole thing is nice. Well, this is why we're always caught up in war. [00:08:22] And we have this very ambiguous relationship to it is that it makes life real and pressing and meaningful and. [00:08:30] At an unacceptable price and the price has never been higher, so jumping into Ehi a little bit, you are in one of the conversation you had or one of the videos you describe that one of the things A.I. systems can't do and biological systems can his self replicate in the physical world? [00:08:51] No, no, no. In the physical world, well, yes, the physical robots can self replicate, but but this is a very tricky point, which is that the only thing that we've been able to create that's really complex, that has an analogue of our reproductive system is software, but nevertheless, software replicates itself. [00:09:18] If we're speaking strictly for a replication in this kind of digital space, I just to begin and you ask a question, do you see a protective barrier or a gap between the physical world and the digital world? [00:09:31] Let's not call it digital. Let's call it the logical world versus the physical world. Why logical? Well, because even though we had, let's say, Einstein's brain preserved, it was meaningless to us as a physical object because we couldn't do anything with what was stored in it at a logical level. And so the idea that something may be stored logically and that it may be stored physically are not necessarily we don't always benefit from Anonymizer. I'm not suggesting that there isn't a material basis to the logical world, but that it does warrant identification with a separate layer that need not invoke logic, gates and zeros and ones. [00:10:16] And so connecting those two worlds are the logical world in the physical world, or maybe just connecting to the logical world inside our brain to his brain. You mentioned the idea of about. [00:10:29] Our televisions, artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence. Yes, this is the only essay that John Brockman ever invited me to write that he refused to publish an edge. [00:10:42] Why? [00:10:43] Well, maybe it wasn't it wasn't well-written, but I don't know. [00:10:47] The idea is quite compelling, is quite unique and new, at least from my view of standpoint. Maybe you can explain it. Sure. [00:10:56] What I was thinking about is why it is that we're waiting to be terrified by artificial general intelligence when in fact artificial life is terrifying in and of itself and it's already here. So in order to have a system of selective pressures, you need three distinct elements you need. Variation within a population, you need heritability and you need differential success. So what's really unique, and I've made this point, I think, elsewhere. About software is that if you think about what humans know how to build, that's impressive. [00:11:36] So I always take a car and I say, does it have an analogue of each of the physical physiological systems? Does it have a skeletal structure? That's its frame. Does it have a neurological structure? It has an onboard computer. Has it the justice system? The one thing it doesn't have is a reproductive system, but if you can call Sporn. On a process, effectively, you do have a reproductive system. And that means that you can create something with variation, heritability and differential success. [00:12:10] Now, the next step in the chain of thinking was where do we see inanimate? [00:12:17] Not intelligent life, outwitting intelligent life, and I have two favorite systems, and I try to stay on them so that we don't get distracted, one of which is the phrase orchid subspecies or clade. I don't know what to call it as a type of flower. Yeah, it's a type of flower that mimics the female of a pollinator species in order to dupe the males into engaging. It was called pseudo copulation with the fake female, which is usually represented by the lowest petal. [00:12:50] And there's also a fair amount component for the males into thinking they have a opportunity. But the flower doesn't have to give up any energy in the form of nectar as a lure because it's tricking the males. The other system is a particular species of mussel, Lampa Selous in the clear streams of Missouri, and it fools Barsa into biting a fleshy lip that contain its young. [00:13:18] And when the bass see this fleshy lip, which looks exactly like a species of fish that the bass like to eat, the the young explode and clamp onto the gills and parasitized the bass and also lose the bass to redistribute them as they eventually release both of these systems. [00:13:37] You have a highly intelligent. Dupe being fooled by a lower life form. And what is sculpting this, these convincing lures? It's the intelligence of previously duped. Targets for these strategies. So when the target is smart enough to avoid the strategy, those weaker mimics fall off. They have terminal lines and only the better ones survive. So it's an arms race between the target species that is being parasitized. Getting smarter and this other less intelligent or not intelligent object, getting as if smarter. [00:14:25] And so what you see is, is that artificial intelligence, artificial general intelligence is not needed to parasitize us. It's simply sufficient for us to outwit ourselves. So you could have a program, let's say, you know, one of these Nigerian scams that writes letters and. Uses whoever sends it Bitcoin to figure out which aspects of the program should be kept, which should be varied and thrown away, and you don't need it to be in any way intelligent in order to have a really nightmare scenario of being parasitized by something that has no idea what it's doing. [00:15:03] So you've raised a few concept really eloquently. So let me try to. As a few directions, this goes a one four four, so the way we write software today, it's not common that we allow it to self modify, but we do have that ability now. [00:15:19] We have the ability. It's just not common. It's just common. [00:15:22] So so your your thought is that that is a serious worry if there becomes a modifying code is available now. [00:15:35] So there are different types of self modification. Right. There is personalization. You know, your email app, your Gmail is self modifying to you after you log in or whatever. [00:15:48] You can think of it that way. But ultimately, it's central. All the information is centralized, but you're thinking of ideas where you're completely this is a unique entity operating at a selective pressures and it changes. [00:16:03] Well, you just if you think about the fact that our immune systems don't know what's coming at them next, but they have a small set of spanning components. And if it's if it's a sufficiently expressive system in that any shape or binding region can be approximated with with the Lego that is present, then you can have confidence that you don't need to know what's coming at you because the combinatorics are sufficient to reach any configuration needed. So that's a beautiful thing. [00:16:42] Well, terrifying thing to worry about because it's so within our reach. Whenever I suggest these things, I do always have a concern as to whether or not I will bring them into being by talking about them. So there's this thing from opening I eyes next next week to talk to the founder of Open Air. I had this idea that their next generation, the new the new stuff they have for generating taxes, they didn't want to bring it. They didn't want to release it because they're worried about the. [00:17:14] I'm delighted to hear that. But they're going to end up release. Yes. [00:17:17] So that's the thing is, I think talking about it well, at least from my end, I'm more a proponent of technology preventing technology. So further innovation, preventing the detrimental effects of innovation. Well, we're a we're sort of tumbling down a hill at accelerating speed. So whether or not we're proponents or it doesn't really it may not matter, but I do not. Well, I do feel that there are people who have held things back and, you know, died poorer than they might have otherwise been. [00:17:52] And we don't even know their names. [00:17:54] I don't think that we should discount the idea that having the smartest people. Showing off how smart they are by what they've developed, maybe a terminal. Process, I'm very mindful in particular of a beautiful letter that Edward Teller, of all people, wrote to Leo Zijlaard where Zijlaard was trying to figure how to control the use of atomic weaponry at the end of World War two and tell her rather strangely, because many of us view him as a monster, showed some very advanced moral thinking, talking about the slim chance we have for survival and that the only hope is to make war unthinkable. [00:18:36] I do think that not enough of us feel in our gut what it is we are playing with when we are working on technical problems. [00:18:43] And I would recommend to anyone who hasn't seen it a movie called The Bridge Over the Bridge on the River Kwai about, I believe, captured British WS who just in a desire to do a bridge, well end up over collaborating with their Japanese captors. [00:18:59] Well, now you're making me question the unrestricted open discussion of ideas. And I. I'm not saying I know the answer. I'm just saying that. I could make a decent case for either our need to talk about this and to become technologically focused on containing it or need to stop talking about this and try to hope that the relatively small number of highly adept individuals who are looking at these problems is small enough that we should, in fact, be talking about how to contain them. [00:19:30] Well, the way ideas, the way innovation happens, what new ideas develop Newton with calculus, whether if he was silent, the idea would be would emerge elsewhere. Well, in the case of Newton, of course. [00:19:44] But, you know, in the case of A.I., how small is the set of individuals out of which such ideas would arise? [00:19:54] Well, the ideas that the researchers we know and those that we don't know who may live in countries that don't wish us to know where at what level they're currently at are very disciplined in keeping these things to themselves out. [00:20:07] Of course, I will point out that there is a religious school in Kerala that developed something very close to the calculus, certainly in terms of infinite series in in, I guess, religious prayer and in Roman prose. [00:20:27] So, you know, it's not that Newton had any ability to hold that back. And I don't really believe that we have the ability to hold back. [00:20:34] I do think that we could change the proportion of the time we spend worrying about the effects of what if we are successful rather than simply trying to succeed and hope that we'll be able to contain things later if we put so on. [00:20:46] The idea of intelligence, what form treading cautiously as we've agreed as we tumble down the hill. [00:20:54] What else can we we can. [00:20:56] We cannot, uh, what form do you see it taking? So one example. Facebook, Google of do want to I don't know, a better word. You want to influence users to behave a certain way. And so that's one kind of example of how intelligence is systems perhaps modifying the behavior of these intelligent human beings in order to sell more product of different kind. [00:21:25] But do you see other examples of this actually emerging in just take any parasitic system? [00:21:32] You know, make make sure that there's some way in which that there's differential success, heritability. And in variation, and those are the magic ingredients, and if you really wanted to build the nightmare machine, make sure that the system that expresses the variability has a spanning set so that it can learn to arbitrary levels by making it sufficiently expressive. [00:21:58] That's your nightmare. So it's your nightmare. But it could also be it's a really powerful mechanism by which to create, well, powerful systems. [00:22:08] So are you more worried about the negative direction that might go versus the positive? So you said parasitic, but that doesn't necessarily need to be what the system converges towards. [00:22:21] It could be what does it matter? [00:22:24] It isn't. The dividing line between parasitism and symbiosis is not so clear. [00:22:30] That's what they tell me about marriage. I'm still single, so I know. [00:22:34] Well, yeah. We could go into that, too, but no, I think. We have to appreciate, you know, are you infected by your own mitochondria, right? Right. Yeah. [00:22:52] So, you know, in marriage, you fear the loss of independence, but. Even though the American therapeutic community may be very concerned about codependents, what's to say that codependents isn't what's necessary to have a stable relationship in which to raise children who are maximally case selected and require incredible amounts of care? Because you have to wait 13 years before there's any reproductive power and most of us don't want our 13 year olds having kids. That's a very tricky situation to analyze. [00:23:21] I would say that. [00:23:24] Predators and parasites drive much of our evolution, and I don't know whether to be angry at them or thank them. Well, ultimately, the I mean, nobody knows the meaning of life or what even happiness is, but there is some metrics that tell you they didn't. They didn't. That's why all the poetry books are about you know, there is some metrics under which you can kind of measure how good it is that these systems are roaming about. [00:23:51] So you're more you're more nervous about software than you are optimistic about ideas of self replicating, learning. [00:24:01] I don't think we've really felt where we are. [00:24:07] You know, occasionally we get a wake up. 9/11 was so anomalous compared to everything we've everything else we've experienced on American soil that it came to us as a complete shock, that that was even a possibility. What it really was, was a highly creative and determined R&D team deep in the bowels of Afghanistan, showing us that we had certain exploits that we were open to, that nobody had chosen to express. I can think of several of these things that I don't talk about publicly that just seem to have to do with how. [00:24:45] Relatively unimaginative, those who wish to cause havoc and destruction have been up until now, but the great mystery of our time. Of this particular little era is how remarkably stable we've been since 1945 when we demonstrated the ability to use nuclear weapons in anger and we don't know why things like that haven't happened since then. We've had several close calls, we've had mistakes, we've had brinksmanship. And what's now happened is that we've settled into a sense that, oh, it's it'll always be nothing. [00:25:27] It's been so long since something was at that level. [00:25:33] Of danger that we've got a wrong idea in our head, and that's why when I went on the Bench Shapiro show, I talked about the need to resume above ground testing of nuclear devices because we have people whose developmental experience suggests that when, let's say, Donald Trump and North Korea engage on Twitter, oh, it's nothing. It's just posturing. Everybody's just in it for money. There's there's a sense that people are in a video game mode, which has been the right call since 1945. [00:26:06] We've been mostly in video game mode. It's amazing. [00:26:09] So you're worried about a generation which has not seen any existential. [00:26:13] We've lived under it. You see, you're younger. I don't know if if. [00:26:18] And again, you came from from Moscow. Yeah. There was a a TV show called The Day after it had a huge effect on a generation growing up in the US and it talked about what life would be like after a nuclear exchange. We have not gone through an embodied experience collectively where we've thought about this, and I think it's one of the most irresponsible things that the elders among us have done, which is to provide this beautiful garden. In which. [00:26:56] The thorns are cut off of the of the rose bushes and all of the edges are rounded and sanded, and so people have developed this totally unreal idea, which is everything's going to be just fine. [00:27:10] And do I think that my leading concern is ajai or might the leading concern is a thermonuclear exchange or gene drives or any one of these things? [00:27:20] I don't know. But I know that our time here. In this very long experiment here is finite because the toys that we've built are so impressive and the wisdom to accompany them has not materialized and. I think we actually got a wisdom uptick since 1945. We had a lot of dangerous skilled players on the world stage who nevertheless, no matter how bad they were, managed to not embroil us. In something that we couldn't come back from the Cold War, yeah, and the distance from the Cold War. [00:27:59] You know, I'm very mindful of there was a Russian tradition, actually, of on your wedding day going to visit a memorial to those who gave their lives. Can you imagine this? Were you on the happiest day of your life? You go and you pay homage to the people who fought and died in the Battle of Stalingrad. [00:28:25] I'm not a huge fan of communism, I got to say, but there were a couple of things that the Russians did that were. Really positive in the Soviet era, and I think trying to let people know how serious life actually is is the Russian model of seriousness is better than the American model. [00:28:45] And maybe, like you mentioned, there was a small echo of that after 9/11, but we would we wouldn't let it fall. We talk about 9/11, but it's nine 12 that really moved the needle. When we were all just there and nobody wanted to speak. We some we witnessed something super serious and we didn't want to run to. Our computers and blast out our deep thoughts and our feelings. And it was profound because we woke up briefly, you know, I talk about the gated institutional narrative and that sort of programs our lives that I've seen it break three times in my life, one of which was the election of Donald Trump. [00:29:31] Another time was the fall of Lehman Brothers, when everybody who knew that Bear Stearns wasn't that important knew that. Lehman Brothers met, AIG was next, and the other one was 9/11, and so if I'm 53 years old and I only remember three times that the global narrative was really interrupted, that tells you how much we've been on top. Of developing events, you know, I mean, we had the Murrah Federal Building explosion, but it didn't cause the narrative to break wasn't profound enough. [00:30:05] Around nine 12, we started to wake up out of our slumber and. The powers that be did not want to coming together, they you know, the admonition was go shopping and the powers that be was what does that force as opposed to blaming individual, we don't know. So whatever that whatever that force is, there's a holding of it that's emergent and there's a component of it that's deliberate to give yourself a portfolio with two components. [00:30:35] Some amount of it is emergent. But some amount of it is also an understanding that if people come together, they become an incredible force. And what you're seeing right now, I think, is there are forces that are trying to come together and their forces that are trying to push things apart. And, you know, one of them is the globalist narrative versus the national narrative. Where to the global globalist perspective, the nations are bad things. In essence, that they're temporary, they're nationalistic, they're jingoistic. [00:31:10] It's all negative to people in the national, more in the national idiom. They're saying, look, this is where I pay my taxes. This is where I do my army service. This is where I have a vote. This is where I have a passport. Who the hell are you to tell me that? Because you've moved into some place that you can make money globally, that you've chosen to abandon other people to whom you have a special and elevated duty? [00:31:33] And I think that these competing narratives have been pushing towards the global perspective from the elite. And a larger and larger number of disenfranchised people are saying, hey, I actually live in a place and I have laws and I speak a language, I have a culture. And who are you to tell me that? Because you can profit in some faraway land. That my obligations to my fellow countrymen are so, so much diminished, so these tensions between nations and so on, ultimately you see being proud of your country and so on, which creates potentially the kind of things that led to wars and so on. [00:32:10] They ultimately it is human nature and it is good for us for wake up calls of different kinds. [00:32:15] Well, I think that these are tensions. And my point isn't I mean, nationalism run amok is a nightmare and internationalism run amuck is a nightmare. And. The problem is we're trying to push these pendulum's to some place where they're somewhat balanced, where we we have a higher duty of care to those who share our laws, our laws and our citizenship. But we don't forget our duties of care to the global system. I would think this is elementary, but the problem that we're facing. [00:32:52] Concerns the ability for some to profit at the event by abandoning their obligations to others within their system, and that's what we've had for decades. [00:33:05] He mentioned nuclear weapons. I was hoping to get answers from you, since one of the many things you've done as economics, maybe you can understand human behavior. Why the heck we haven't blown each other up yet, but OK, so we'll get to know the answer. Yes, sir. It's a farce. It's it's really important to say that we really don't know. [00:33:24] And a mild uptick in wisdom, a mild uptick in wisdom. [00:33:27] That's what Steven Pinker, who I've talked with, has a lot of really good ideas about why. But I don't trust his optimism. [00:33:38] Listen, I'm Russian, so I never trust a guy who is that optimist. No, no, no. It's just that you're talking about a guy who's looking at a system in which more and more of the kinetic energy like war has been turned into potential energy like unused nuclear weapons. Beautifully put. And, you know, now I'm looking at that system and I'm saying, OK, well, if you don't have a potential energy term, then everything's just getting better and better. [00:34:02] Yeah. Wow, that's that's beautiful. [00:34:05] But only if it's OK. [00:34:07] Uh, not a physicist. [00:34:09] Well, is that a dirty word? No, no. [00:34:12] I wish I were a physicist. Uh, me too. My dad's a physicist. I'm trying to live up that probably for the rest of my life. He's probably got to listen to this, too. So he did. Yeah. [00:34:24] So your friend Sam Harris worries a lot about the existential threat of A.I.. Not in the way that you've described, but in the more well, he hangs out with Ellen, I don't know. [00:34:37] So are you worried about that kind of, you know, about the about either robotic systems or, you know, traditionally defined A.I. systems, essentially becoming superintelligent, much more intelligent than human beings and getting what they already are? [00:34:57] And they're not. When when seen as a collective, you mean well, I mean, I can mean all sorts of things, but certainly many of the things that we thought. Were peculiar to general intelligence or do not require general intelligence, so that's been one of the big awakenings that. You can write a pretty convincing sports story from stats alone without needing to have watched the game. So, you know, is it possible to write lively prose about politics? [00:35:30] Yeah, no, not yet. So we were sort of all over the map, one of the one of the things about chess is there's a question I once asked on Quora that didn't get a lot of response, which was what is the greatest brilliancy ever produced by a computer in a chess game, which was different than the question of what is the greatest game ever played. So if you think about brilliance, this is what really animates many of us to think of chess as an art form. [00:35:57] Mm hmm. Those are those moves in combinations that just show such flair, panache and then soul computers weren't really great at that. They were great positional monsters. And, you know, recently we've started seeing brilliance. And so if you grandmasters have identified with with Alpha Zero that things were quite brilliant. Yeah. So that that's you know, that's an example of something. We don't think that that's ajai. But in a very restricted set set of rules like chess, you're starting to see poetry of a high order. [00:36:32] And and so I'm not I don't like the idea that we're waiting for Aja. Aja is sort of slowly infiltrating our lives. In the same way that I don't think a worm should be, you know, elegans shouldn't be treated as nonconscious because it only has 300 neurons, maybe just has a very low level of consciousness because we don't understand what these things mean as they scale up. So am I worried about this general phenomenon? Sure. But I think that one of the things that's happening is that a lot of us are fretting about this in part because of human needs. [00:37:10] We've always been worried about the golomb, right? Well, the games, the artificially created life, you know, it's like Frankenstein. Or characters. It's a Jewish version and. Frank Heinberg, Frank. Yeah, that makes sense. All right, so the but we've always been worried about creating something like this and it's getting closer and closer. And there are ways in which. We have to realize that the whole thing is the whole thing that we've experienced are the context of our lives is almost certainly coming to an end. [00:37:49] And I don't mean to suggest that we won't survive. I don't know. And I don't mean to suggest that it's coming tomorrow could be 300, 500 years. [00:38:00] But there's no plan that I'm aware of if we have three rocks that we could possibly inhabit that are sensible within current technological dreams, the Earth, the moon and Mars. And we have a very competitive civilization that is still forced into violence to sort out disputes that cannot be arbitrated. It is not clear to me that we have a long term future until we get to the next stage, which is to figure out whether or not the Einsteinian speed limit can be broken. [00:38:34] And that requires our source code. Our source code, the stuff in our brains to figure out what do you mean by our source code, the source code of the context, whatever it is that produces the quarks, the electrons, the neutrino, all our source code. I got it. [00:38:50] So this is the best stuff that's written in higher level language. Yeah, that's right. You're talking about the low level bits, right? [00:38:58] That's what is currently keeping us. Here, we can't even imagine. You know, we have harebrained schemes for staying within the Einsteinian speed limit. You know, maybe if we could just drug ourselves and go into a suspended state or we could have multiple generations of, I think all that stuff is pretty silly. But I think it's also pretty silly to imagine that our wisdom is going to increase to the point that we can have the toys we have and we're not going to use them for 500 years. [00:39:30] Speaking of Einstein. I had a profound breakthrough when I realized there's just one letter away from the guy. Yeah, but I'm also one letter away from Feinstein. It's well, you get to pick, OK, so unified theory, you know, you've worked you you enjoy the beauty of geometry. Well, I don't actually know if you enjoy it. You certainly are quite good at it. Tremble before tremble before it. If you're religious, that is one of the they're going to have to be religious. [00:39:58] It's just so beautiful. You will tremble. [00:40:00] Anyway, I just read Einstein's biography and one of the ways one of the things you've done is try to explore a unified theory. [00:40:11] I'm talking about a 14 dimensional observance that has the fauji space time continuum embedded in it. [00:40:19] I just curious how you think and how philosophically at a high level about something more than four dimensions, how do you try to what does it make you feel? Talking in the mathematical world about dimensions that are greater than the ones we can perceive, is, is there something that you take away that's more than just the math? [00:40:43] Well, first of all, stick out your tongue at me. OK, now on the front of that, yeah, there was a sweet receptor. And next to that were salt receptors and two different sides a little bit farther back, there were sour receptors and you wouldn't show me the back of your tongue where your bitter receptor was on the good side. Always OK, but that was for dimension's. Of taste receptors. But you also had pain receptors on that tongue and probably heat receptors on that tongue. [00:41:17] So let's get one of each. That would be six dimensions. So when you eat something, you eat a slice of pizza. And it's got some some some hot pepper on it, maybe some opinion, you're having six dimensional experience, do do you think we overemphasize the value of time as one of the dimensions or space? [00:41:41] Well, we certainly overemphasize the value of time because we like things to start and we really don't like things to end. But they seem to. Well, what if you flipped one of the spatial dimensions into being a temporal dimension? And you and I were to meet in New York City and say, well, where and when should we meet? I say, how about I'll meet you on thirty six and Lexington at 2:00 in the afternoon and 11 o'clock in the morning. [00:42:09] That would be very confusing. Well, so it's convenient for us to think about time, you mean we happened to be in a delicious situation in which we have three dimensions of space and one of time, and they're woven together in this sort of strange fabric where we can trade off a little space for a little time, but we still only have one dimension that is picked out relative to the other three. It's very much Gladys Knight and the Pips. [00:42:32] So which one developed for who do we develop for these dimensions or dimensions or were they always there? And it doesn't? Would you imagine that there isn't a place where there are four temporal dimensions or two or two of space and time or three of time in one of space, and then would time not be playing the role of space? Why do you imagine that the sector that you're in is all that there is? I certainly do not, but I can't imagine otherwise. [00:42:57] I mean, I haven't done ayahuasca or any any of those drugs. I hope to one day. [00:43:02] But doing ayahuasca, you could just head over to building to that's where the mathematicians are. That's where they hang just to look at some geometry. [00:43:10] Well, just ask about sort of remaining in geometry. That's what you're interested in. [00:43:14] OK, or you could talk to a shaman and end up in Peru and then spend extra money, but you won't be able to do any calculations if that's how you choose to go about it. Well, a different kind of calculation. [00:43:25] So, yeah, one of my favorite people, Edward Frankel, Berkeley professor, author of Love and Math, great title for a book, said that you're quite a remarkable intellect to come up with such beautiful original ideas. [00:43:40] In terms of the unified theory and so on, but you are working outside academia, so one question in developing ideas are truly original, truly interesting. What's the difference between inside academia and outside academia when it comes to developing such? Oh, it's a terrible choice. Terrible choice. So if you do it inside of academics, you are forced to constantly. Show great loyalty to the consensus, and you distinguish yourself with small, almost microscopic heresies to make your reputation in general. [00:44:23] And you have very competent people and brilliant people who are working together who are. Who form very deep social networks and have a very high level. Of behavior, at least within mathematics and at least technically within physics, theoretical physics. When you go outside, you meet lunatics and crazy people. Mad Men, and these are people who do not usually subscribe to the consensus position and almost always lose their way, and the key question is, will progress likely come from someone who is miraculously managed to stay within the system and is able to take on a larger amount of heresy? [00:45:15] That is sort of unthinkable, in which case that will be fascinating, or is it more likely that somebody will maintain a level of discipline from outside of academics? And be able to make use of the freedom that comes from not having to constantly affirm your loyalty to the consensus of your field. [00:45:38] So you've characterized in ways that I could academia in this particular sense is declining. [00:45:45] You posted the plot. [00:45:46] The older population of the faculty is getting larger, the younger is getting smaller and so on. [00:45:53] So what's which direction of the two are you more hopeful about? [00:45:57] Well, the baby boomers can't hang on forever. Well, first of all, in general, true. And second of all, in academia. But that's really what I think what this time is about is the baby boomers. [00:46:07] We didn't we're used to like financial bubbles that last a few years in length and then pop the baby boomer bubble. Is this really long lived thing? [00:46:18] And all of the ideology, all of the behavior patterns, the norms, for example, string theory is an almost entirely baby boomer phenomenon. It was something that baby boomers were able to do because it required a very high level of mathematical ability. [00:46:36] So you don't you don't think of string theory as an original idea? Oh, I mean, it was original to Veneziano probably is older than the baby boomers. And there are people who are younger than the baby boomers who are still doing string theory. And I'm not saying that nothing discovered within the large string theory at a complex is wrong. Quite the contrary. A lot of brilliant mathematics and a lot of the structure of physics was elucidated by string theorists. [00:47:03] What do I think of the deliverable nature of this product that will not ship called string theory? I think that it is largely an affirmative action program for highly, mathematically and geometrically talented baby boomer physics physicists so that they can say that they're working on something. Within the constraints of what they will say is quantum gravity. Now there are other schemes, you know, there's like asymptotic safety. There are other things that you could imagine doing. I don't think much of any of the major programs. [00:47:37] But to have inflicted this level of. Loyalty through a shibboleth, well, surely you don't question X Y question almost everything in the string program, and that's why I got out of physics when you called me a physicist. It was a great honor. But the reason I didn't become a physicist wasn't that I fell in love with mathematics, as I said. Well, in 1984, in 1983, I saw the field going mad and I saw that mathematics, which has all sorts of problems, was not going insane. [00:48:09] And so instead of studying things within physics, I thought it was much safer to study the same objects within mathematics. And there's a huge price to pay for that. You lose physical intuition. But the point is, is that it wasn't a North Korean reeducation camp either. [00:48:24] Are you hopeful about cracking open the Einstein Unified Theory in a way that has been really, really understanding whether the stuff of uniting everything together with quantum theory and so on? [00:48:38] I mean, I'm trying to play this role myself to do it well to the extent of handing it over to the more responsible, more professional, more competent community. So I think that they're wrong about a great number of their belief structures. But I do believe I mean, I have a really profound love hate relationship with this group of people. I think the physics side. Oh, yeah. [00:49:05] Because the mathematicians actually seem to be much more open minded and. Well, they are. [00:49:10] And there aren't there are open minded about anything that looks like great math. Right. They'll study something that isn't very important physics. But if it's beautiful mathematics, then they'll have they have great intuition about these things. As good as the mathematicians are. [00:49:24] And I might even intellectually add some horsepower level, give them the edge. [00:49:29] The theoretical theoretical physics community is bar none, the most profound intellectual community that we have ever created. It is the number one. There is nobody in second place as far as I'm concerned, look in their spare time. And the spare time they invented molecular biology, what was the origin of molecular biology? You're saying for somebody like Francis Crick? I mean, a lot of a lot of the early molecular biologists were physicists. [00:49:56] Yeah. I mean, you know, Schrodinger wrote What is life? [00:49:59] That was highly inspirational. I mean, you have to appreciate that. [00:50:05] There is no community like the basic research community in theoretical physics, and it's not something I'm highly critical of these guys. I think that they were just wasted the decades of time with and near religious devotion to their conceptualization of where the problems were in physics. But this has been the greatest intellectual collapse ever witnessed within academics. You see it as a collapse or just a lull? Oh, I'm terrified that we're about to lose the vitality. [00:50:42] We can't afford to pay these people. We can't afford to give them an accelerator just to play with in case they find something at the next energy level, these people created our economy. They gave us the rad lab and radar, they gave us two atomic devices to end World War Two that created the semiconductor and the transistor to power our economy through Moore's Law as a positive externality of particle accelerators that created the World Wide Web. [00:51:13] And we have the insulin's to say, why should we fund you with our taxpayer dollars? Now, the question is, are you enjoying your physics dollars? Right. These guys signed the world's worst licensing agreement. [00:51:28] Right. [00:51:29] And if if they simply charged for every time you used a transistor or a U. [00:51:35] RL or enjoyed the piece that they have provided during this period of time through the terrible weapons that they developed or your communications devices, all of the things that power our economy, I really think came out of physics, even to the extent the chemistry came out of physics and molecular biology came out of physics. [00:51:54] So first of all, you have to know that I'm very critical of this community. Second of all, it is our most important community. We have neglected it. We've abused it. We don't take it seriously. We don't even care to get them to rehab after a couple of generations of failure. No. One, I think the youngest person to have really contributed to the Standard Model at a theoretical level was born in 1951. [00:52:21] All right, Frank, we'll check. And almost nothing has happened that in theoretical physics after 1973 74, that sent somebody to Stockholm. For theoretical development, the predicted experiment. So we have to understand that we are doing this to ourselves now, with that said, these guys have behaved abysmally, in my opinion, because they haven't owned up to where they actually are, what problems they're really facing, how definite they can actually be. They haven't shared some of their most brilliant discoveries which are desperately needed in other fields, like Gaige theory, which at least the mathematicians can can share, which is an upgrade of the differential calculus of Newton and Leibnitz. [00:53:05] And they haven't shared the importance of renormalization theory, even though this should be standard operating procedure for people across the sciences, dealing with different layers and different levels of phenomena. [00:53:17] And so share. Do you mean communicate in such a way that it disseminates throughout the different sides? [00:53:23] These guys are sitting, both theoretical physicists and mathematicians are sitting on top of a giant stockpile of intellectual gold. All right. They have so many things that have not been manifested anywhere. I was just on. Twitter, I think I mentioned the Hobman switch pitch that shows the self duality of the tetrahedron realized there's a linkage mechanism. Now, this is like a triviality and it makes an amazing toy that's built in a market, hopefully a fortune for Chuck Hoberman. [00:53:55] Well, you have no idea how much great stuff that these priests have in their monastery. So it's truly a love and hate relationship for you. [00:54:04] Yeah, well, it sounds like it's more on the love, this building that we're in right here. This is the building in which I really put together the conspiracy between the National Academy of Sciences, the National Science Foundation, through the Government University Industry Research Roundtable, to destroy the bargaining power of American academics using foreign labor with online graffiti in the basement. Oh, yeah, that was done here in this building. And then weird. And I'm truly speaking with a revolutionary and radical. [00:54:34] No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. At an intellectual level, I am absolutely garden variety. I'm just straight down the middle. The system that we are in this this university is functionally insane. Yeah. Harvard is functionally insane, and we don't understand that when we get these things wrong, the financial crisis made this very clear. There was a long period where every grown up, everybody with a tie who spoke in baritone tones with the right degree at the end of their name, were talking about how he'd banish volunteer volatility. [00:55:16] We're in the Great Moderation. OK, they were all crazy and who was who was right? It was like Nassim Taleb, right? Nouriel Roubini. Now what happens is that they claimed the market went crazy, but the market didn't go crazy. The market had been crazy. And what happened is, is that it suddenly went insane. Well, that's where we are with academics. Academics right now is mad as a hatter. And it's absolutely evident. [00:55:42] I can show you a graph after graph. I can show you the internal discussions. I can show you the conspiracies. Harvard's dealing with one right now over its admissions policies for people of color who happen to come from Asia. All of this madness is necessary to keep the game going. What we're talking about, just while we're on the topic of revolutionaries, as we're talking about the danger of an outbreak of sanity. Yeah, you're the guy pointing out the elephant in the room here and the elephant has no clothes. [00:56:14] So how that goes? I was going to talk a little bit. To Joe Rogan about this ran out of time. [00:56:24] Well, I think you're you have some you just listening to you, you could probably speak really eloquently to academia on the difference between the different fields. [00:56:33] So you think there's a difference between science, engineering and then the humanities and academia in terms of tolerance that they're willing to tolerate? So from my perspective, I thought. [00:56:46] Computer science and maybe engineering is more tolerant to radical ideas, but that's perhaps innocent of me, is I always you know, all the battles going on now are a little bit more on the humanities side and gender studies and so on. [00:56:59] Have you seen the American Mathematical Society's publication of an essay called Get Out the Way? [00:57:06] I have not was. What's the idea is that white men who hold positions. Within universities and mathematics should vacate their positions so that young black women can take over something like this. [00:57:20] That's in terms of diversity, which I also want to ask you about. [00:57:22] But in terms of diversity of strictly ideas. Sure. [00:57:27] Do you think because you're basically saying physics as a community has become a little bit intolerant to some degree to new radical ideas, or at least you you said that's changed a little bit recently, which is that even string theory is now admitting, OK, we don't look very promising in the short term. [00:57:48] Right. [00:57:49] So the question is, what compiles? If you want to take the computer science metaphor, what will get you into a journal, will you spend your life trying to push some paper into a journal or will it be accepted easily? What do we know about the characteristics of the submitter? And what gets taken up and what does not? All of these fields are experiencing pressure because no field is performing so brilliantly well that it's revolutionizing. Our way of speaking and thinking in the ways in which we've become accustomed, but don't you think even in theoretical physics, a lot of times, even with theories like string theory, you could speak to this. [00:58:37] It does eventually lead to what are the ways that this theory would be testable? [00:58:43] And so ultimately, although, look, there's this thing about Popper and the scientific method that's a cancer and a disease in the minds of very smart people. That's not really how most of the stuff gets worked out. It's how it gets checked. [00:58:59] And there is a dialogue between theory and experiment. But everybody should read Paul Dirac's 1963 American. [00:59:08] Scientific American article where he you know, it's very interesting, he talks about it as if it was about the Schrodinger equation and Schrodinger's failure to advance his own work because of his failure to account for some phenomena. The key point is that if your theory is a slight bit off, it won't agree with experiment, but it doesn't mean that the theory is actually wrong. But Dirac could as easily have been talking about his own equation in which he predicted that the electrons should have an antiparticle. [00:59:38] And since the only positively charged particle that was known at the time was the proton, Heisenberg pointed out, Well, shouldn't your antiparticle, the proton have the same mass as the electron? And doesn't that invalidate your theory? [00:59:50] So I think the direct was actually being quite potentially quite sneaky and talking about the fact that he had been pushed off of his own theory to some extent by Heisenberg. But look, we fetishize the scientific method and popper and falsification because it protects us from crazy ideas entering the field. So, you know, it's a question of balancing type one and type two error. And we're pretty we were pretty maxed out in one direction. The opposite of that. [01:00:19] Let me say what comforts me sort of biology or engineering at the end of the day, does the thing work? Yeah, you can test the crazies away, the crazy. Well, see, now you're saying. [01:00:33] But some ideas are actually crazy and some are actually correct. So there's pretty correct. Currently crazy. Yeah, right. [01:00:42] And so you don't want to get rid of everybody who's pretty correct and currently crazy. The problem is, is that we don't have standards in general for trying to determine who has to be put to the sword in terms of their career and who has to be protected as some sort of giant time suck pain in the ass who may change everything. Do you think that's possible, creating a mechanism of those select? [01:01:08] Well, you're not going to like the answer, but here it comes. Boy, it has to do with very human elements. [01:01:16] We're trying to do this at the level of like rules and fairness. [01:01:19] It's not going to work. Because the only thing that really understands this. You read the read the Double Helix, it's a book. Oh, you have to read this book. Not only did Jim Watson have discovered this three dimensional structure of DNA, he's also one hell of a writer. [01:01:40] Before he became an ass that I know, he tried to destroy his own reputation. [01:01:46] I knew about the ass I didn't know about. The good writer. Jim Watson is one of the most important people now living. [01:01:52] And as I've said before, Jim Watson is too important a legacy to be left to Jim Watson. [01:02:01] That book tells you more about what actually moves the dial. And there's another story about him which I don't agree with, which is that he stole everything from Rosalind Franklin. I mean, the problems that he had with Rosalind Franklin are real, but we should actually honor that tension in our history by delving into it rather than having a simple solution. Jim Watson talks about Francis Crick being a pain in the ass that everybody secretly knew was super brilliant. [01:02:29] And there's an encounter between Charge F, who came up with the equal moler relations between the nucleotides, who should have gotten the structure of DNA and Watson and Crick and. [01:02:43] You know, he talks about missing a shiver in the heartbeat of biology and stuff so gorgeous, it just makes you tremble even thinking about it. [01:02:52] Look, we know very often who is to be feared and we need to fund the people that we fear. The people who are wasting our time need to be excluded from the conversation, you see. And, you know, maybe we'll make some errors in both directions, but we have known our own people, we know the pains in the asses that might work out, and we know the people who are really just blowhards who really have very little to contribute. [01:03:22] Most of the time it's not 100 percent. But you're not going to get there with rules, right? [01:03:27] It's using some kind of instinct. I mean, to be honest, I'm going to make you roll your eyes for a second, but mean the first time I heard that there is a large community of people who believe the earth is flat. [01:03:40] Actually made me pause and ask myself the question, why would there be such a community? Yeah, is it possible the earth is flat? So I had to like, wait a minute. [01:03:49] I mean, then you go through the process that I think is really healthy. [01:03:54] It ultimately ends up being a geometry thing, I think it's an interesting it's an interesting thought experiment at the very least, but I don't I do a different version of it. [01:04:03] I say, why is this community stable? [01:04:05] Yeah, that's a good way to analyze it. Interesting that whatever we've done has not erased the community. So, you know, they're taking a long shot bet that won't pan out, you know. Maybe we just haven't thought enough about the rationality of the square root of two and somebody's brilliant will figure it out. Maybe we will eventually land one day on the surface of Jupiter and explore it. [01:04:27] Right. These are crazy things that will never happen so much as social media operates by algorithms. You talked about this a little bit, uh, recommending the content, you see. [01:04:38] So on this idea of radical thought, how much should I show you things you disagree with on Twitter and so on in the Twitter verse about Internet squares? [01:04:51] Yeah. Yeah. Because you don't know the answer. No, no, no, no. Look, we've been that they've pushed out this cognitive legault to us that will just lead to madness. It's good to be challenged with things that you disagree with. The answer is no. It's good to be challenged with interesting things with which you currently disagree. But that might be true. [01:05:13] So I don't really care about whether or not I disagree with something or don't disagree. I need to know why that particular disagreeable thing is being pushed out. Is it because it's likely to be true, is it because is there some reason because I can write I can write a computer generator to come up with an infinite number of disagreeable statements that nobody needs to look at. [01:05:34] So please, before you push things at me that are disagreeable, tell me why there is an aspect in which that question is quite dumb, especially because it is being used to almost a very generically by these different networks to say, well, we're trying to work this out. [01:05:52] But, you know, basically, how much do you see the value of seeing things you don't like, not you disagree with? [01:06:01] Because it's very difficult to know exactly what you articulated, which is the stuff that's important for you to consider that you disagree with. That's really hard to figure out. The bottom line is this stuff you don't like, if you're a Hillary Clinton supporter, you may not want to you may not make you feel good to see anything about Donald Trump. That's the only thing girls can really optimize for currently. They really know they can do better. This is where we're working. [01:06:28] So now we're engaged in some moronic back and forth where. I have no idea why people who are capable of building Google, Facebook, Twitter are having us in these incredibly low level discussions, do they not know any smart people? Do they not have the phone numbers of people who can elevate these discussions? They do, but this is for a different thing. And they are pushing those people out of those rooms. They're they're optimizing for things we can't see. [01:07:03] And yes, profit is there no, but it nobody's questioning that, but they're also optimizing for things like. Political control or the fact that they're doing business in Pakistan and so they don't want to talk about all the things that they're going to be bending to in Pakistan. [01:07:19] So we're involved in a fake discussion. You think so? You think these conversations at that depth are happening inside Google? You don't think they have some basic metrics under user engagement? [01:07:32] You're having a fake conversation with us, guys. We know you're having a fake conversation. I do not wish to be part of your fake conversation. You know how to cool. You know, these units, you know, high availability, like nobody's business by Gmail, never goes down. Almost see, you think just because they can do incredible work on the softer side with infrastructure, they can also deal with some of these difficult questions about human behavior, human understanding. [01:08:03] You're not seeing me. [01:08:04] I've seen I've seen the developers screens that people take shots of inside of Google. Yeah. And I've heard stories inside of Facebook and Apple. We're not we're engaged. They're engaging us in the wrong conversations. We are not at this low level. Here's one of my favorite questions. Why is every piece of hardware that I purchase in tech space equipped as a listening device? Where's my physical shutter to cover my lens? We had this in the 1970s, it cameras that had lens caps. [01:08:41] You know, how much would it cost to have a security model pay five extra bucks? Why is my indicator light software controlled WI when my camera is on? Do I not see that the light is on by putting it is something that cannot be bypassed? Why have you set up my all my devices at some difficulty to yourselves as listening devices and we don't even talk about this. This is, this thing is total fucking bullshit. [01:09:08] Well I hope these discussions are happening about privacy. This is more difficult than you give. It's not just privacy. [01:09:14] Yeah. It's about social control. We're talking about social control. Why do I not have controls over my own levers? [01:09:23] Just have a really cute UI where I can switch, I can dial things, or I can at least see what the algorithms are. But you think that there is some deliberate choices being made? Hillary's emergence and there is intention. There are two dimensions and the vector does not collapse under either axis. But the idea that anybody who suggests that intention is completely absent is a child that's really beautifully put. [01:09:52] And like many things you said, is going to make me. Can I can I turn this around slightly? Yeah, I sit down with you and you say that you're obsessed with my feet. [01:10:01] Uh huh. I don't even know what my feet is. What are you seeing that I'm not. [01:10:06] I was obsessively looking through your feed on Twitter because I was really enjoyable because as the Tom Lehrer element is the humor in it, by the way, that feed is Eric Garner once and Twitter and Eric R. Weinstein, it answers why. [01:10:23] Why did I find it enjoyable or what was I seeing? [01:10:26] What are you looking for? Why are we doing this? What is this podcast about? I know you've got all these interesting people. I'm just some guy who is sort of a podcast guest. [01:10:36] It's sort of like this. You're not even wearing a tie. [01:10:39] I mean, not even we're not doing a serious interview and searching for meaning, for happiness, for a dopamine rush. So short term and long term. [01:10:51] And how are you finding your way to me? What what what is I don't honestly know what I'm doing to reach you. The representing ideas, which are few common sense to me and that many people are speaking. [01:11:04] So it's kind of like the the intellectual dark web folks, right? [01:11:09] They are. These folks from Sam Harris to Jordan Peterson to yourself are saying things where it's like you're like saying, look, there's an elephant. He's not wearing any clothes. And I say, yeah, yeah, let's have more of that conversation, that's how I'm finding it, I'm desperate to try to change the conversation we're having. I'm very worried we've got an election in 2020. I don't think we can afford four more years of a misinterpreted message, which is what Donald Trump was. [01:11:42] And I don't want the destruction of our institutions. They all seem hell bent on destroying themselves. So I'm trying to save theoretical physics, trying to save The New York Times, trying to save. [01:11:53] Our various processes, and I think it feels delusional to me that this is falling to a tiny group of people who are willing to speak out without getting so freaked out that everything they say will be misinterpreted and that their lives will be ruined through the process. [01:12:09] I mean, I think we're in an absolutely bananas period of time, and I don't believe it should fall to such a tiny number of shoulders to shoulder this weight. [01:12:19] So I have to ask you, on the capitalism side, you mentioned that technology is killing capitalism or has effects that are unin well, not unintended, but not what economists would predict or speak of capitalism creating. I just want to talk to you about, in general, the effect of even then artificial intelligence or technology, automation, taking away jobs in these kinds of things. [01:12:44] And what you think is the way to alleviate that, whether the Andranik. Presidential candidate with universal basic income, UBI, with your thoughts there, how do we fight off the negative effects of technology that aren't your software, right? [01:13:00] Yep. A human being is a worker is an old idea. Yes, a human being has a worker is a different object. Right. So if you think about object oriented programming is a paradigm. [01:13:14] A human being has a worker and a human being has a soul. [01:13:18] We're talking about the fact that for a period of time, the worker that a human being has was in a position to feed the soul that a human being has. However, we have to separate claims on the value in society. One is as a worker and the other is as a soul, and the soul needs sustenance, it needs dignity, it needs meaning, it needs purpose. As long as your means of support is not highly repetitive, I think you have a while to go before you need to start worrying. [01:13:53] But if what you do is highly repetitive and it's not terribly generative, you are in the crosshairs of four for loops and while loops. And that's what computers excel at, repetitive behavior. And when I say repetitive, I mean I may mean things that have never happened, but through combinatorial possibilities. But as long as it has a looped characteristic to it, you're in trouble. [01:14:15] We are seeing a massive push towards socialism because capitalists are slow to address the fact that a worker may not be able to make claims. A relatively undistinguished median member of our society is still has needs to reproduce, needs to have to dignity. And when capitalism abandons the median individual or, you know, the bottom tenth or whatever it's going to do, it's flirting with revolution. And what concerns me is that the capitalists aren't sufficiently capitalistic to understand this. [01:14:56] You really want to court authoritarian control in our society because you can't see that people may not be able to defend themselves in the marketplace because the marginal product of their labor was to too low to feed their dignity as a soul. So my great concern is that our free society has to do with the fact that we are self organized. [01:15:19] I remember looking down from my office in Manhattan when Lehman Brothers collapsed and thinking, who's going to tell all these people that they need to show up at work when they don't have a financial system to incentivize them to show up at work? [01:15:34] So my complaint is, first of all, not with the socialists, but with the capitalists, which is you guys are being idiots. You're courting revolution by continuing to harp on the same old ideas that, well, you know, try try harder, bootstrap yourself. Yeah. To an extent that works to an extent. But we are clearly headed in place that there's nothing that ties together our need to. Contribute and our need to consume, and that may not be provided by capitalism because it may have been a temporary phenomenon. [01:16:06] So check out my article on anthropic capitalism and the new gimmick economy. [01:16:12] I think people who are late getting the wake up call and we would be doing a better job saving capitalism from itself because I don't want this done under authoritarian control. And the more we insist that everybody who's not thriving in our society during their reproductive years in order to have a family is failing at a personal level. I mean, what a disgusting thing that we're saying, what a horrible message, who to who the hell have we become that we've so bought into the Chicago model that we can't see the humanity that we're destroying in that process. [01:16:44] And it's I hate I hate the thought of communism. I really do. My family has flirted with it decades past. It's a wrong, bad idea. But we are going to need to figure out how to make sure that those souls are nourished and respected and capitalism better have an answer. And I'm betting on capitalism, but I got to tell you, I'm pretty disappointed with my team. [01:17:06] So you're still on the capitalism team, just the theme here, radical radical capital, hyper capitalism. [01:17:14] I want I think hyper capitalism is going to have to be coupled to hyper socialism. You need to allow the most productive people to create wonders and you've got to stop bogging them down with all of these extra nice requirements. You know, nice is dead good, has a future nice doesn't have a future because Nice ends up with with gulags. Damn, that's a good line. OK, last question you tweeted today, a simple, quite insightful equation, saying, imagine that every unit F of fame you picked up as stalkers and H haters. [01:17:52] So I imagine SNH are dependent on your path to fame, perhaps a little bit. [01:17:56] Well, it's not as simple as people always take these things literally when you have like two hundred and eighty characters to explain yourself. [01:18:04] That's not a mathematical. [01:18:06] No, there's no law. OK, all right. I just said when I put the word immagine because I still have a mathematician's desire for precision. [01:18:12] Imagine if this were true, but it was a beautiful way to imagine that there is a law that has those variables in it. And you've become quite famous these days. [01:18:23] So how do you yourself optimize that equation with the peculiar kind of fame that you have gathered along the way? I want to be kinder. I want to be kinder to myself. I want to be kinder to others. I want to be able to have heart. Compassion, these things are really important and I have a pretty spectrum kind of approach to analysis, I'm quite literal. [01:18:47] I can go full rain man on you at any given moment. No, I can. I can. [01:18:51] It's facultative autism, if you like, and people are going to get angry because they want autism to be respected, but. When you see me coding or you see me doing mathematics. I'm you know, I speak with speech apnea, right, David, you know. We have to try to integrate ourselves and those tensions between, you know, it's sort of back to us as a worker and us as a soul, many of us are optimising one to be at the expense of the other. [01:19:22] And I struggle with social media and I struggle with people making threats against our families. And I struggle with just how much pain people are in. And if there's one message I would like to push out there, irresponsible everybody, all of us, myself included, with struggling struggle, struggle mightily because it's nobody else's job to do your struggle for you. Now, with that said, if you're struggling and you're trying and you're trying to figure out how to better yourself and where you failed, where you've let down your family, your friends, your workers, all this kind of stuff, give yourself a break. [01:20:00] You know, if if if it's not working out, I have a lifelong relationship with failure and success. There's been no period of my life where both haven't been present in one form or another. [01:20:12] And I do wish to say that a lot of times people think this is glamorous. I'm about to go, you know, do a show with Sam Harris. People are going to listen in on two guys having a conversation on stage. It's completely crazy. And I'm always trying to figure out how to make sure that those people get maximum value. And that's why I'm doing this podcast. You know, just give yourself a break. You owe us you owe us your struggle. [01:20:37] You don't owe your family or your co-workers or your lovers or your family members success. As long as you're in there and you're picking yourself up, recognize that this this new situation with the economy that doesn't have the juice to sustain our institutions has caused the people who risen to the top of those institutions to get quite brutal and cruel. Everybody is lying at the moment. Nobody's really a truth teller. Try to keep your humanity about you. Try to recognize that if you're failing, if things aren't where you want them to be and you're struggling and you're trying to figure out what you're doing wrong, which you could do, it's not necessarily all your fault. [01:21:18] We are in a global situation. I have not met the people who are honest, kind, good, successful. Nobody that I've met is Chick is checking all the boxes. Nobody's getting all tense. So I just think that's an important message that doesn't get pushed out enough either. People want to hold society responsible for their failures, which is not reasonable. You have to struggle. You have to try or they want to say you're 100 percent responsible for your failures, which is total nonsense. [01:21:48] Beautifully put, Eric, thank you so much for talking today. Thanks for having me, buddy.

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