特別節目·中文精讀

克里斯·厄姆森:Aurora、谷歌、CMU 與 DARPA 的自動駕駛之路

Chris Urmson: Self-Driving Cars at Aurora, Google, CMU, and DARPA

Aurora 執行長回顧谷歌自動駕駛、CMU 與 DARPA 挑戰賽的經歷與安全思路。

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2004 年,DARPA 在莫哈韋沙漠辦了第一屆大挑戰賽,獎金一百萬美金。沒有一輛車跑完全程。卡內基梅隆那支車隊的技術總監叫克里斯·厄姆森(Chris Urmson),當時他還是個研究生。十五年後,他坐在 Lex Fridman 的麥克風前回憶這件事,說的是那句老話:第一次我們確實沒做成。

在那個時間點,做這件事的人被同行視為半瘋。全美只有卡內基梅隆一家機器人研究所,萬一折在沙漠裡,臉就丟大了。厄姆森的解釋裡有一句很關鍵的自我剖析,他稱之為"無知者無畏的紅利":如果你並不知道一件事究竟有多難,你就會去試各種別人不敢試的路徑,而這恰恰是那些更聰明、更謹慎的人拿不到的機會。

惠特克看人的方式,看的是這個人能變成什麼

帶他們進沙漠的人是紅·惠特克(Red Whittaker),機器人領域的傳奇。厄姆森後來自己做了領導,被問到從惠特克身上學到什麼,他講了兩條,第二條講得比第一條久。

第一條是去碰那些真正難的東西,因為真正大的機會就藏在難的地方。第二條他說得更重:看一個人,要看他能成為什麼,而不是他現在是什麼。惠特克會把本科生、研究生直接推到負責人的位置上,給資源、給責任、給真正會砸鍋的任務。換一個人來評估,大概會說這不就是個本科生嗎,他懂什麼。

厄姆森把這件事總結成"信任,但要去驗證"。這套做法在機器人研究所有其現實基礎:那裡的人手永遠不夠,你必須讓二十三四歲的人去決定一輛車在十字路口該怎麼走。

兩次技術解鎖:高畫質地圖,和多線鐳射雷達

從第一屆沙漠挑戰賽到 2007 年的城市挑戰賽,再到今天的公開道路,厄姆森認為中間有幾次真正的臺階,並非同一種技術被不斷打磨得更結實。

沙漠那一屆,解鎖整個問題的是高畫質地圖。在此之前,野外機器人研究基本建立在"沒有任何先驗模型"的前提上,車開到哪兒算哪兒。而當時他們能做到分米級精度的環境模型,這一下把問題的複雜度框住了:車可以假設前方大概是什麼樣的地形,於是敢於提速。之前那種完全靠實時感知摸索的開法,速度上不去。

城市那一屆,解鎖問題的是多線鐳射雷達。它能生成中遠距離、高解析度的三維世界模型,用來理解車周圍發生了什麼。這在當年是改變遊戲規則的東西。與此同時,一批在學術會議上"各領風騷半年"的技術終於走到了真實的舞臺上。厄姆森特別提到貝葉斯估計和 SLAM:幾年前你去開機器人會議,幾乎每篇論文裡都能找到 SLAM 的影子。看著這套東西在一個高度可見的場合真刀真槍跑起來,他覺得非常過癮。

不過有一處細節值得掰開:城市挑戰賽裡他們做的其實不是實時的 SLAM。因為地圖是提前建好的,車要做的是定位,用鐳射雷達或者攝像頭把自己對齊到那張已有地圖上。相對於此前那種樸素地相信 GPS 加慣導的做法,這一步很大。

釐米級定位真正的麻煩,是地球本身在動

DARPA 給所有隊伍發了同一份地圖。聽上去省事,實際上有個坑,直到今天還在絆人:座標系。

你拿到一個經緯度,精確到小數點後很多位。如果你只關心米級精度,地球用哪個橢球模型描述根本無所謂。可一旦你要做到十釐米、一釐米,你就必須搞清楚這份資料用的是 NAD83 還是 WGS84。這兩個標準對地球"不圓"這件事的建模方式不同,而且其中一個還牽涉板塊漂移,需要按年份做基準轉換。

拿到一張圖是一回事,把這張圖和現實對齊到釐米級,是另一回事。厄姆森說這件事當年既麻煩又有趣。

2007 年的感知,已經有今天問題的雛形

被問到當年感知模組承擔了多少工作,厄姆森的回答很坦率:肯定不如今天,畢竟十幾年過去了,但核心的東西都在。

他們要跟蹤其他車輛,跟蹤距離超過一百米,因為需要匯入車流。他們用貝葉斯方法估計每輛車的狀態,要預測這輛車幾秒鐘後會在哪兒。他們還要處理多假設:一輛車停在路口,可能右轉,可能直行,可能左轉,你得同時把三種未來都掛在賬上。更麻煩的一層是,自己的行為會改變對方的行為。你往前蹭一點,對面那輛車可能就讓你了,也可能不讓。

這些事他們做得相對樸素,但它跑起來了。這就引出一個判斷:自動駕駛的核心難點,十幾年來的形狀並沒有大變,變的是容錯空間。

從假城市到真城市,差的不是技術名詞

厄姆森列了幾條差別,每一條都在放大問題的規模。

第一,參與者真的不可預測。路上絕大多數人開得規矩,但總有人不規矩,而且你無法預知是哪一個人、在哪一秒。

第二,車輛種類是全集。當年的空軍基地裡沒有這一項。

第三,當年不需要處理腳踏車、行人、紅綠燈。這些今天全在。

第四,也是最容易被忽略的一條:當年只需要跑完 60 英里。從 2006 年的視角看,跑完 60 英里就是勝利。今天的標準是幾十萬英里的運營壽命。同一套軟體,面對的時間尺度差了三四個數量級。

還有一條環境上的差別他講得很輕:那個基地是被人維護過的,路面平整,人和機器人之間還有隔離欄。真實世界沒有這些。

鐳射雷達是不是柺杖

馬斯克說過一句廣為流傳的話:鐳射雷達是柺杖。Lex 把這個說法擺到厄姆森面前。

厄姆森先承認了對方邏輯的成立之處,而且承認得很乾脆:人腦門上沒長鐳射器,人靠被動視覺就能開車,這是存在性證明,無法反駁。他自己每天都這麼幹。

然後他換了個角度。他說,鐳射雷達確實可以算柺杖,就像內燃機是通往電動車路上的柺杖一樣。任何技術最終都會被更優的技術替代,這不是什麼需要辯護的事。真正的問題在於,地面交通這套系統本身是壞的。他提到當天早上看到的數字:去年一年,三萬七千名美國人死在路上。這個數字不可接受。

所以他的判斷標準很簡單:任何能讓自動駕駛更快落地、更早救人的技術,都該用。反對用鐳射器卻接受一千六百萬畫素的攝像頭,這個立場在他看來相當隨意。這些都是工具箱裡的零件,應該挑最好用的那件來解決問題。

這些只是技術零件。我們應該從工具箱裡拿最好的工具去解決問題。(克里斯·厄姆森)

500 美元的方案能跑,50 美元的方案跑不了

Lex 提到車企最常掛在嘴邊的詞是成本,並順勢丟擲一個讓人不舒服的問題:能不能找到一套足夠便宜、又足夠安全的感測器組合?

厄姆森對這個問題的前提做了修正。他認為"最便宜的感測器套件"這個提法本身就偏了,你真正要的是經濟上可行、同時能用的套件。在這個前提下,剩下的全是毛利和成本最佳化的事。

他給了一個很直白的對比:如果 500 美元的方案能讓系統工作,50 美元的方案不能,那便宜有什麼意義?只要商業模型跑得通,就有經濟空間。而經濟空間很重要,因為那才是一門可持續生意的基礎,也才是這套東西真正鋪開到世界上的前提。

至於鐳射雷達的成本走勢,他給了雙向的判斷。一方面,這項技術在原理上沒有昂貴的理由,未來價格會大幅下降。另一方面,它一定會比影象感測器貴,因為 CMOS 或者晶片產線的規模化能力,遠遠強過機械加工的產線,這是產業結構決定的,短期改不了。

Level 2 的經濟學,和 Level 4 的技術路線正在分叉

這是整場對話裡最鋒利的段落。厄姆森先做了一個澄清,他說這段話經常被曲解,所以他要講得格外小心。

主動安全系統是好東西,應該做,應該裝車,短期內就能減少事故和死亡。Level 2 指的是車輛同時控制兩個軸:剎車和油門,或者剎車和方向盤。其中有一類 L2 系統是真正在輔助駕駛員的,這類系統他認為應該大力推廣。

問題出在人因,出在公眾對這套系統能力邊界的誤解,出在人們願意給它的信任額度。他說自己現在對 Level 3 的擔心反而更多一些,也對 L2 的宣傳方式和交付方式更警惕,尤其是看廠商在人的因素上到底投了多少精力。

他舉了一個讓人不舒服的例子。就在那幾周,媒體報道了一連串在特斯拉里睡覺的人。特雷弗·諾亞在節目裡聊這件事,說這是一輛自動駕駛汽車,那為什麼不能在裡頭睡。厄姆森的評價很直接:這是聰明人,資源豐富,依然會把一輛 L2 的車說成自動駕駛汽車。它壓根不是自動駕駛汽車,從來沒被設計成自動駕駛汽車。這些人在某個時點幾乎必然會死,或者傷到別人。

接下來是他真正的論證,也是最值得慢讀的一段。他認為由於經濟邏輯不同,L2 這條技術路徑會和真正實現無人駕駛的技術路徑分岔。

理由是這樣的:L2 產品的安全論證,建立在"駕駛員在負責、駕駛員在看著"這個前提上。有了這個前提,你就可以為了經濟性放棄一部分漏檢率。他舉例說,一套前向碰撞緩解剎車系統,如果在一半的情況下駕駛員沒注意到前車、系統替他剎住了,這已經是安全帶級別的進步。但從經濟角度看,你接下來該做的是把這個方案的成本壓下去,裝到儘可能多的車上。壓成本這件事,並不會提升漏檢那一半的表現。所以你在這條路上走得越遠,越得不到一套能支撐無人駕駛的技術。

1800 英里,和 8500 萬英里

Lex 提了一個假設:如果全世界每個人都對這項技術的真實能力完全知情,L2 能不能被安全使用?

厄姆森說不能,理由是他不相信那個世界存在。

人即使看到了統計資料,也會把它和自己的經驗揉在一起。假設一個人每天開著 L2 上下 101 高速,來回 60 英里,開一個月,跑了 1800 英里,一次錯都沒出。這個體驗非常有說服力。他會想,也許那些統計資料有別的解釋,也許那些事故發生在很難的地方,反正我親眼見它工作了一個月。

而真實的安全基準是多少?大約 8500 萬英里才有一次死亡事故。1800 英里相比之下是一滴水。人們憑親身經驗得到的風險估計,系統性地偏樂觀,而且他們還是會繼續信任它,因為不信任很難。

厄姆森還補了一層:時間拉長到一兩年,效果一樣。而且隨著這項技術從科技愛好者群體擴散到大眾市場,早期使用者或許能把理性維持得更久一點,後來的使用者讀一遍說明,再對照自己一個月的順利體驗,防線會崩得更快。

怎麼向世界證明一臺車是安全的

厄姆森承認這個問題沒有一句話答案,這是他少見的開場就先認輸的時刻。

他的思路是疊加幾層證據。第一層是過程:功能安全流程這類東西,作用是證明"我們是認真按規矩做的"。你如果相信我們描述的流程屬實,就能對我們工程上的嚴謹度有一些信心。第二層是能力證據:模擬、單元測試、分解測試,加上一部分公開道路資料,共同說明這套系統確實能做到我們聲稱的事。第三層是背書:向 NHTSA 和各州監管機構做深入溝通,讓這些以公共利益為職責、被公眾信任的機構先被說服。

沒有一句話的答案。我們只能拿出組合起來的證據,讓別人相信我們既做得認真,也確實做得好。(克里斯·厄姆森)

脫離次數為什麼是個壞指標

目前業界公開使用的指標是每多少英里人工接管一次。厄姆森說這個指標很快就會變成營銷工具,各家調整測試設計就能讓數字好看。他明確表示,自己曾向加州 DMV 書面表態,認為這不是個好指標。

他相信可以造出更好的指標體系,但不會是一個數字。方向是按能力拆解:識別紅綠燈、左轉穿過對向車流,這些具體任務人類駕駛員的失敗率大概是多少,然後把自家系統的表現和這個基準對比。這些分項指標串起來,才能講出一個有說服力的故事。

他還提到航空業的事件金字塔:最頂上是一次事故,往下是受傷、險兆、違反操作規程,每一層都建統計模型,用小事故的頻率去推斷大事故的機率。這套方法自動駕駛遲早要用,因為一次死亡在 8500 萬英里的尺度上,即使把全美國的資料放在一起也很難直接比較。而自動駕駛汽車沾上的一次死亡,短期內獲得的關注度是被極度放大的。

讓人坐進去,然後覺得無聊

公眾對自動駕駛最熱衷的討論是電車難題。厄姆森沒有多糾纏這個話題,他轉向了另一個更實際的問題:怎麼讓人心服。

他的答案是讓人親自體驗。他認為懷疑是合理的,人應該提問,應該質疑,因為這是個新東西,誰都沒摸過。

他講了自己做演示時最喜歡的一幕。帶上一個人上高速,在 101 上以 65 邁的速度跑著,十分鐘後對方轉過頭來問:它就會這個? 厄姆森的回答是,這是輛自動駕駛汽車,我也不太確定你還期待它做什麼。

這件事的要害在於,它變得乏味了。而這恰恰是你想要的。他打了個比方:按開關的時候沒人會去想電子是怎麼從某處的發電廠被推進電線裡的,你只會在它不亮的時候煩一下。這項技術該有的樣子就是這樣,退到背景裡去,人可以在車裡見同事、讀檔案,不用怕天黑。

先做城市,而不是先跑高速卡車

被問到什麼時候能看到萬輛級的部署,厄姆森給了一個相對明確的判斷:十年之內。

但他認為真正的分水嶺不在數量。真正的節點是一輛沒有安全員的無人車在公共道路上連續運營。跨過這一步,才算從零走到了一。之後才是規模化、商業模型、使用者體驗,才算從混合的科學工程研究變成工程與商業化。

Aurora 在選擇切入場景時,行業的風向是卡車高速幹線,因為人的直覺認為高速更容易:大家同向行駛,車道也寬一些。厄姆森說這個直覺大體成立,只是它忽略了關鍵的一點:我們關心的不是大部分時間,是全部時間。

一輛七萬磅的卡車以 70 邁行駛,動能是驚人的。一旦出錯,出的是大錯。而這種極端情況出現得很少,意味著你學得慢。所以他判斷,高速並不比城市簡單,它只是難點更稀疏、更致命。

他們選擇中速城市和郊區環境,邏輯有三層。兩輛車在 25 邁相撞,結果不好,但人大機率能自己走下車。這類有潛在後果的場景出現頻率高,學習速度快。風險對所有人來說都更低。而且它直接提供了從 A 到 B 的出行價值。城市搞定之後,高速那一塊自然會掉出來。

最該擔心的不是大車,是腳踏車和行人

被問到夜裡睡不著時想的是什麼,厄姆森說的是弱勢道路使用者,尤其是腳踏車和車、腳踏車和行人的組合。理由是物理上的:車裡的人有鐵皮護著,撞了後果可控;騎車的人和走路的人沒有任何防護。

Lex 追問了一個博弈論層面的問題。如果你為了保護行人而開得謹慎又慢,行人會不會學會佔你便宜?人在現實中是靠往前蹭來穿過人群的,這套演算法寫進車裡,聽上去並不體面。

厄姆森把它拆成兩件事。第一件是他不擔心有人故意走上馬路來欺負無人車。理由很樸素:他自己開車時如果有人走到車前,他會停下來,氣歸氣,但絕不會從人身上碾過去。人也不想被撞。唯一的增量風險是行人可能對無人車的識別能力信心不足,行為會略微不同,僅此而已。

第二件是穿過音樂會散場那種人流,他認為這屬於技術路線圖上更靠後的位置。演算法本身其實很簡單:慢慢往前挪,有人貼得很近就停。而且這種場景的速度是 1 邁,不是 30 邁,風險本來就很低。這件事更像人機互動問題,而非演算法問題:車怎麼透過視覺顯示,讓行人感到自己是被禮貌地請開的。

如果有一根魔杖

Lex 換了個問法:如果能許一個願,讓系統的哪一部分立刻變完美,會加速整個程序?他特意加了一句,別說基礎設施。

厄姆森說不是基礎設施,是感知加預測。如果明天有人能給他一個完美的模型,把車周圍發生過的、正在發生的、未來五秒將要發生的一切都說清楚,整個程序會被極大加速。

這個回答值得琢磨。它意味著今天最大的不確定性,還停留在"我看不清、我猜不準"這一層:並非車不知道怎麼打方向盤。

不盯著對手,是因為dead end太多

被問到主要競爭對手是誰、長期怎麼贏,厄姆森的回答聽上去像公關話術,但他給出了具體支撐。

他說他們很少花時間想戰術層面的對手。這是個巨大且困難的問題,一批公司同時在攻,這對社會是好事,總得有人到達終點。

真正的優勢在別處。一是領導團隊的經驗密度高,知道這片地形上哪些路是死的,儘量繞著走。二是招人:這件事有明確的使命,能吸引到很強的人。三是文化,讓人覺得可以安靜地花時間解決真正的問題,而不是疲於奔命。四是他講得最實的一條:早期就在基礎設施和架構上重投入。因為早期拿到了好的團隊和好的投資人,他們不必把時間全耗在做 demo、從一個演示跳到下一個演示上,可以騰出手去建機器學習的基礎設施、建路測資料迴流的基礎設施、建用資料加速工程迭代的基礎設施。

這段話在 2019 年說出來,是整個行業分野的註腳。同樣在做自動駕駛,有的公司在比誰的影片好看,有的公司在比誰的資料管道更粗。

回到最初那個問題

訪談裡有個細節,可能比任何技術判斷都重要。

Lex 問,從沙漠到城市挑戰賽,你個人是什麼時候相信這件事能成的?厄姆森的回答像是反問:當然相信,不然你為什麼要去做一件你認為完全不可能的事?他們知道會很難,不知道怎麼做,也不知道第一次能不能成。事實證明第一次沒成。

但正是那種"不知道有多難"的狀態,讓他們敢去試那些 wiser 的人不會試的方案。十五年後,同一個人站在一家自動駕駛公司的 CEO 位置上,面對的是另一種難題:他知道有多難了。三萬七千人死在路上,8500 萬英里才有一次死亡,人坐在車裡十分鐘就會開始過度信任,一套 50 美元能跑但跑不好的感測器方案會毀掉整條技術路線。

他知道得太清楚了。所以他給出的時間表是十年,落地點是中速城市,第一優先順序是沒有安全員的連續運營,而不是釋出會上的影片。

這種剋制,在一個被神秘和炒作同時籠罩的領域裡,本身就是一種稀缺資源。

  • 看到"自動駕駛"這個詞,先問它管幾個軸。只管油門剎車是一回事,管方向盤是另一回事,出事時責任在車上還是在人身上,是第三回事。宣傳語裡幾乎不會主動區分,你得自己去問。
  • 用樣本量給自己的體驗打折。一個月來回跑了 1800 英里一次沒錯,聽著很有說服力,而人類駕駛的死亡基準大約是 8500 萬英里一次。你親眼所見的那點資料,不足以支撐你的信任。
  • 別信單一指標。任何一家公司公佈"每萬英里接管次數",先看它有沒有同時公佈測試場景構成和接管判定標準。沒有這兩樣,數字之間沒有可比性。
  • 看它敢不敢講自己做不到什麼。只講能力不講邊界的團隊,要麼沒測過邊界,要麼在賭你不會問。
  • 判斷進度,盯一個節點:無安全員的連續商業運營。demo、里程數、城市數量、融資額都是過程量,只有這個節點是 0 到 1。它一旦出現,後面的時間表才有討論意義;它沒出現,其他數字都是在不同的尺子上量。
  • 留意那家公司在基礎設施上的投入。模擬、資料迴流、評測體系這些不上新聞的東西,決定了它三年後是在迭代還是在重做。
  • 把注意力留給腳踏車和行人。討論自動駕駛安全時,最該被追問的是弱勢道路使用者的保護方案,而不是那輛七萬磅的卡車能不能跑高速。
文稿來自公開 Kaggle 資料集(rajneesh231/lex-fridman-podcast-transcript),為早期自動轉錄存檔,可能存在識別錯誤。
The following is a conversation with Chris Sampson. He was a CTO of the Google self driving car team, a key engineer and leader behind the Carnegie Mellon University autonomous vehicle entries in the DARPA Grand Challenges and the winner of the DARPA Urban Challenge. Today, he's the CEO of Aurora Innovation, an autonomous vehicle software company. He started with Sterling Anderson, who was the former director of Tesla Autopilot, and drew back now, Uber's former autonomy and perception lead. Chris is one of the top roboticists and autonomous vehicle experts in the world, and a longtime voice of reason in a space that is shrouded in both mystery and hype. He both acknowledges the incredible challenges involved in solving the problem of autonomous driving and is working hard to solve it. This is the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman, spelled F R I D M A N. And now, here's my conversation with Chris Sampson. You were part of both the DARPA Grand Challenge and the DARPA Urban Challenge teams at CMU with Red Whitaker. What technical or philosophical things have you learned from these races? I think the high order bit was that it could be done. I think that was the thing that was incredible about the first of the Grand Challenges, that I remember I was a grad student at Carnegie Mellon, and there was kind of this dichotomy of it seemed really hard, so that would be cool and interesting. But at the time, we were the only robotics institute around, and so if we went into it and fell on our faces, that would be embarrassing. So I think just having the will to go do it, to try to do this thing that at the time was marked as darn near impossible, and then after a couple of tries, be able to actually make it happen, I think that was really exciting. But at which point did you believe it was possible? Did you from the very beginning? Did you personally? Because you're one of the lead engineers. You actually had to do a lot of the work. Yeah, I was the technical director there, and did a lot of the work, along with a bunch of other really good people. Did I believe it could be done? Yeah, of course. Why would you go do something you thought was completely impossible? We thought it was going to be hard. We didn't know how we were going to be able to do it. We didn't know if we'd be able to do it the first time. Turns out we couldn't. That, yeah, I guess you have to. I think there's a certain benefit to naivete, right? That if you don't know how hard something really is, you try different things, and it gives you an opportunity that others who are wiser maybe don't have. What were the biggest pain points? Mechanical, sensors, hardware, software, algorithms for mapping, localization, just general perception, control? Like hardware, software, first of all? I think that's the joy of this field, is that it's all hard and that you have to be good at each part of it. So for the urban challenges, if I look back at it from today, it should be easy today, that it was a static world. There weren't other actors moving through it, is what that means. It was out in the desert, so you get really good GPS. So that went, and we could map it roughly. And so in retrospect now, it's within the realm of things we could do back then. Just actually getting the vehicle and the, there's a bunch of engineering work to get the vehicle so that we could control it and drive it. That's still a pain today, but it was even more so back then. And then the uncertainty of exactly what they wanted us to do was part of the challenge as well. Right, you didn't actually know the track heading in here. You knew approximately, but you didn't actually know the route that was going to be taken. That's right, we didn't know the route. We didn't even really, the way the rules had been described, you had to kind of guess. So if you think back to that challenge, the idea was that the government would give us, the DARPA would give us a set of waypoints and kind of the width that you had to stay within between the line that went between each of those waypoints. And so the most devious thing they could have done is set a kilometer wide corridor across a field of scrub brush and rocks and said, go figure it out. Fortunately, it really, it turned into basically driving along a set of trails, which is much more relevant to the application they were looking for. But no, it was a hell of a thing back in the day. So the legend, Red, was kind of leading that effort in terms of just broadly speaking. So you're a leader now. What have you learned from Red about leadership? I think there's a couple things. One is go and try those really hard things. That's where there is an incredible opportunity. I think the other big one, though, is to see people for who they can be, not who they are. It's one of the things that I actually, one of the deepest lessons I learned from Red was that he would look at undergraduates or graduate students and empower them to be leaders, to have responsibility, to do great things that I think another person might look at them and think, oh, well, that's just an undergraduate student. What could they know? And so I think that kind of trust but verify, have confidence in what people can become, I think is a really powerful thing. So through that, let's just fast forward through the history. Can you maybe talk through the technical evolution of autonomous vehicle systems from the first two Grand Challenges to the Urban Challenge to today, are there major shifts in your mind or is it the same kind of technology just made more robust? I think there's been some big, big steps. So for the Grand Challenge, the real technology that unlocked that was HD mapping. Prior to that, a lot of the off road robotics work had been done without any real prior model of what the vehicle was going to encounter. And so that innovation that the fact that we could get decimeter resolution models was really a big deal. And that allowed us to kind of bound the complexity of the driving problem the vehicle had and allowed it to operate at speed because we could assume things about the environment that it was going to encounter. So that was the big step there. For the Urban Challenge, one of the big technological innovations there was the multi beam LIDAR and being able to generate high resolution, mid to long range 3D models of the world and use that for understanding the world around the vehicle. And that was really kind of a game changing technology. In parallel with that, we saw a bunch of other technologies that had been kind of converging half their day in the sun. So Bayesian estimation had been, SLAM had been a big field in robotics. You would go to a conference a couple of years before that and every paper would effectively have SLAM somewhere in it. And so seeing that the Bayesian estimation techniques play out on a very visible stage, I thought that was pretty exciting to see. And mostly SLAM was done based on LIDAR at that time. Yeah, and in fact, we weren't really doing SLAM per se in real time because we had a model ahead of time, we had a roadmap, but we were doing localization. And we were using the LIDAR or the cameras depending on who exactly was doing it to localize to a model of the world. And I thought that was a big step from kind of naively trusting GPS, INS before that. And again, lots of work had been going on in this field. Certainly this was not doing anything particularly innovative in SLAM or in localization, but it was seeing that technology necessary in a real application on a big stage, I thought was very cool. So for the urban challenge, those are already maps constructed offline in general. And did people do that individually, did individual teams do it individually so they had their own different approaches there or did everybody kind of share that information at least intuitively? So DARPA gave all the teams a model of the world, a map. And then one of the things that we had to figure out back then was, and it's still one of these things that trips people up today is actually the coordinate system. So you get a latitude longitude and to so many decimal places, you don't really care about kind of the ellipsoid of the earth that's being used. But when you want to get to 10 centimeter or centimeter resolution, you care whether the coordinate system is NADS 83 or WGS 84 or these are different ways to describe both the kind of non sphericalness of the earth, but also kind of the, I think, I can't remember which one, the tectonic shifts that are happening and how to transform the global datum as a function of that. So getting a map and then actually matching it to reality to centimeter resolution, that was kind of interesting and fun back then. So how much work was the perception doing there? So how much were you relying on localization based on maps without using perception to register to the maps? And I guess the question is how advanced was perception at that point? It's certainly behind where we are today, right? We're more than a decade since the urban challenge. But the core of it was there. That we were tracking vehicles. We had to do that at 100 plus meter range because we had to merge with other traffic. We were using, again, Bayesian estimates for state of these vehicles. We had to deal with a bunch of the problems that you think of today, of predicting where that vehicle's going to be a few seconds into the future. We had to deal with the fact that there were multiple hypotheses for that because a vehicle at an intersection might be going right or it might be going straight or it might be making a left turn. And we had to deal with the challenge of the fact that our behavior was going to impact the behavior of that other operator. And we did a lot of that in relatively naive ways, but it kind of worked. Still had to have some kind of solution. And so where does that, 10 years later, where does that take us today from that artificial city construction to real cities to the urban environment? Yeah, I think the biggest thing is that the actors are truly unpredictable. That most of the time, the drivers on the road, the other road users are out there behaving well, but every once in a while they're not. The variety of other vehicles is, you have all of them. In terms of behavior, in terms of perception, or both? Both. Back then we didn't have to deal with cyclists, we didn't have to deal with pedestrians, didn't have to deal with traffic lights. The scale over which that you have to operate is now is much larger than the air base that we were thinking about back then. So what, easy question, what do you think is the hardest part about driving? Easy question. Yeah, no, I'm joking. I'm sure nothing really jumps out at you as one thing, but in the jump from the urban challenge to the real world, is there something that's a particular, you foresee as very serious, difficult challenge? I think the most fundamental difference is that we're doing it for real. That in that environment, it was both a limited complexity environment because certain actors weren't there, because the roads were maintained, there were barriers keeping people separate from robots at the time, and it only had to work for 60 miles. Which, looking at it from 2006, it had to work for 60 miles, right? Looking at it from now, we want things that will go and drive for half a million miles, and it's just a different game. So how important, you said LiDAR came into the game early on, and it's really the primary driver of autonomous vehicles today as a sensor. So how important is the role of LiDAR in the sensor suite in the near term? So I think it's essential. I believe, but I also believe that cameras are essential, and I believe the radar is essential. I think that you really need to use the composition of data from these different sensors if you want the thing to really be robust. The question I wanna ask, let's see if we can untangle it, is what are your thoughts on the Elon Musk provocative statement that LiDAR is a crutch, that it's a kind of, I guess, growing pains, and that much of the perception task can be done with cameras? So I think it is undeniable that people walk around without lasers in their foreheads, and they can get into vehicles and drive them, and so there's an existence proof that you can drive using passive vision. No doubt, can't argue with that. In terms of sensors, yeah, so there's proof. Yeah, in terms of sensors, right? So there's an example that we all go do it, many of us every day. In terms of LiDAR being a crutch, sure. But in the same way that the combustion engine was a crutch on the path to an electric vehicle, in the same way that any technology ultimately gets replaced by some superior technology in the future, and really the way that I look at this is that the way we get around on the ground, the way that we use transportation is broken, and that we have this, I think the number I saw this morning, 37,000 Americans killed last year on our roads, and that's just not acceptable. And so any technology that we can bring to bear that accelerates this self driving technology coming to market and saving lives is technology we should be using. And it feels just arbitrary to say, well, I'm not okay with using lasers because that's whatever, but I am okay with using an eight megapixel camera or a 16 megapixel camera. These are just bits of technology, and we should be taking the best technology from the tool bin that allows us to go and solve a problem. The question I often talk to, well, obviously you do as well, to sort of automotive companies, and if there's one word that comes up more often than anything, it's cost, and trying to drive costs down. So while it's true that it's a tragic number, the 37,000, the question is, and I'm not the one asking this question because I hate this question, but we want to find the cheapest sensor suite that creates a safe vehicle. So in that uncomfortable trade off, do you foresee LiDAR coming down in cost in the future, or do you see a day where level four autonomy is possible without LiDAR? I see both of those, but it's really a matter of time. And I think really, maybe I would talk to the question you asked about the cheapest sensor. I don't think that's actually what you want. What you want is a sensor suite that is economically viable. And then after that, everything is about margin and driving costs out of the system. What you also want is a sensor suite that works. And so it's great to tell a story about how it would be better to have a self driving system with a $50 sensor instead of a $500 sensor. But if the $500 sensor makes it work and the $50 sensor doesn't work, who cares? So long as you can actually have an economic opportunity, there's an economic opportunity there. And the economic opportunity is important because that's how you actually have a sustainable business and that's how you can actually see this come to scale and be out in the world. And so when I look at LiDAR, I see a technology that has no underlying fundamentally expense to it, fundamental expense to it. It's going to be more expensive than an imager because CMOS processes or FAP processes are dramatically more scalable than mechanical processes. But we still should be able to drive costs down substantially on that side. And then I also do think that with the right business model you can absorb more, certainly more cost on the bill of materials. Yeah, if the sensor suite works, extra value is provided, thereby you don't need to drive costs down to zero. It's the basic economics. You've talked about your intuition that level two autonomy is problematic because of the human factor of vigilance, decrement, complacency, over trust and so on, just us being human. We over trust the system, we start doing even more so partaking in the secondary activities like smartphones and so on. Have your views evolved on this point in either direction? Can you speak to it? So, and I want to be really careful because sometimes this gets twisted in a way that I certainly didn't intend. So active safety systems are a really important technology that we should be pursuing and integrating into vehicles. And there's an opportunity in the near term to reduce accidents, reduce fatalities, and we should be pushing on that. Level two systems are systems where the vehicle is controlling two axes. So braking and throttle slash steering. And I think there are variants of level two systems that are supporting the driver. That absolutely we should encourage to be out there. Where I think there's a real challenge is in the human factors part around this and the misconception from the public around the capability set that that enables and the trust that they should have in it. And that is where I kind of, I'm actually incrementally more concerned around level three systems and how exactly a level two system is marketed and delivered and how much effort people have put into those human factors. So I still believe several things around this. One is people will overtrust the technology. We've seen over the last few weeks a spate of people sleeping in their Tesla. I watched an episode last night of Trevor Noah talking about this and him, this is a smart guy who has a lot of resources at his disposal describing a Tesla as a self driving car and that why shouldn't people be sleeping in their Tesla? And it's like, well, because it's not a self driving car and it is not intended to be and these people will almost certainly die at some point or hurt other people. And so we need to really be thoughtful about how that technology is described and brought to market. I also think that because of the economic challenges we were just talking about, that these level two driver assistance systems, that technology path will diverge from the technology path that we need to be on to actually deliver truly self driving vehicles, ones where you can get in it and drive it. Can get in it and sleep and have the equivalent or better safety than a human driver behind the wheel. Because again, the economics are very different in those two worlds and so that leads to divergent technology. So you just don't see the economics of gradually increasing from level two and doing so quickly enough to where it doesn't cause safety, critical safety concerns. You believe that it needs to diverge at this point into basically different routes. And really that comes back to what are those L2 and L1 systems doing? And they are driver assistance functions where the people that are marketing that responsibly are being very clear and putting human factors in place such that the driver is actually responsible for the vehicle and that the technology is there to support the driver. And the safety cases that are built around those are dependent on that driver attention and attentiveness. And at that point, you can kind of give up to some degree for economic reasons, you can give up on say false negatives. And the way to think about this is for a four collision mitigation braking system, if it half the times the driver missed a vehicle in front of it, it hit the brakes and brought the vehicle to a stop, that would be an incredible, incredible advance in safety on our roads, right? That would be equivalent to seat belts. But it would mean that if that vehicle wasn't being monitored, it would hit one out of two cars. And so economically, that's a perfectly good solution for a driver assistance system. What you should do at that point, if you can get it to work 50% of the time, is drive the cost out of that so you can get it on as many vehicles as possible. But driving the cost out of it doesn't drive up performance on the false negative case. And so you'll continue to not have a technology that could really be available for a self driven vehicle. So clearly the communication, and this probably applies to all four vehicles as well, the marketing and communication of what the technology is actually capable of, how hard it is, how easy it is, all that kind of stuff is highly problematic. So say everybody in the world was perfectly communicated and were made to be completely aware of every single technology out there, what it's able to do. What's your intuition? And now we're maybe getting into philosophical ground. Is it possible to have a level two vehicle where we don't over trust it? I don't think so. If people truly understood the risks and internalized it, then sure, you could do that safely. But that's a world that doesn't exist. The people are going to, if the facts are put in front of them, they're gonna then combine that with their experience. And let's say they're using an L2 system and they go up and down the 101 every day and they do that for a month. And it just worked every day for a month. Like that's pretty compelling at that point, just even if you know the statistics, you're like, well, I don't know, maybe there's something funny about those. Maybe they're driving in difficult places. Like I've seen it with my own eyes, it works. And the problem is that that sample size that they have, so it's 30 miles up and down, so 60 miles times 30 days, so 60, 180, 1,800 miles. Like that's a drop in the bucket compared to the, what, 85 million miles between fatalities. And so they don't really have a true estimate based on their personal experience of the real risks, but they're gonna trust it anyway, because it's hard not to. It worked for a month, what's gonna change? So even if you start a perfect understanding of the system, your own experience will make it drift. I mean, that's a big concern. Over a year, over two years even, it doesn't have to be months. And I think that as this technology moves from what I would say is kind of the more technology savvy ownership group to the mass market, you may be able to have some of those folks who are really familiar with technology, they may be able to internalize it better. And your kind of immunization against this kind of false risk assessment might last longer, but as folks who aren't as savvy about that read the material and they compare that to their personal experience, I think there it's going to move more quickly. So your work, the program that you've created at Google and now at Aurora is focused more on the second path of creating full autonomy. So it's such a fascinating, I think it's one of the most interesting AI problems of the century, right? It's, I just talked to a lot of people, just regular people, I don't know, my mom, about autonomous vehicles, and you begin to grapple with ideas of giving your life control over to a machine. It's philosophically interesting, it's practically interesting. So let's talk about safety. How do you think we demonstrate, you've spoken about metrics in the past, how do you think we demonstrate to the world that an autonomous vehicle, an Aurora system is safe? This is one where it's difficult because there isn't a soundbite answer. That we have to show a combination of work that was done diligently and thoughtfully, and this is where something like a functional safety process is part of that. It's like here's the way we did the work, that means that we were very thorough. So if you believe that what we said about this is the way we did it, then you can have some confidence that we were thorough in the engineering work we put into the system. And then on top of that, to kind of demonstrate that we weren't just thorough, we were actually good at what we did, there'll be a kind of a collection of evidence in terms of demonstrating that the capabilities worked the way we thought they did, statistically and to whatever degree we can demonstrate that, both in some combination of simulations, some combination of unit testing and decomposition testing, and then some part of it will be on road data. And I think the way we'll ultimately convey this to the public is there'll be clearly some conversation with the public about it, but we'll kind of invoke the kind of the trusted nodes and that we'll spend more time being able to go into more depth with folks like NHTSA and other federal and state regulatory bodies and kind of given that they are operating in the public interest and they're trusted, that if we can show enough work to them that they're convinced, then I think we're in a pretty good place. That means you work with people that are essentially experts at safety to try to discuss and show. Do you think, the answer's probably no, but just in case, do you think there exists a metric? So currently people have been using number of disengagements. And it quickly turns into a marketing scheme to sort of you alter the experiments you run to adjust. I think you've spoken that you don't like. Don't love it. No, in fact, I was on the record telling DMV that I thought this was not a great metric. Do you think it's possible to create a metric, a number that could demonstrate safety outside of fatalities? So I do. And I think that it won't be just one number. So as we are internally grappling with this, and at some point we'll be able to talk more publicly about it, is how do we think about human performance in different tasks, say detecting traffic lights or safely making a left turn across traffic? And what do we think the failure rates are for those different capabilities for people? And then demonstrating to ourselves and then ultimately folks in the regulatory role and then ultimately the public that we have confidence that our system will work better than that. And so these individual metrics will kind of tell a compelling story ultimately. I do think at the end of the day what we care about in terms of safety is life saved and injuries reduced. And then ultimately kind of casualty dollars that people aren't having to pay to get their car fixed. And I do think that in aviation they look at a kind of an event pyramid where a crash is at the top of that and that's the worst event obviously and then there's injuries and near miss events and whatnot and violation of operating procedures and you kind of build a statistical model of the relevance of the low severity things or the high severity things. And I think that's something where we'll be able to look at as well because an event per 85 million miles is statistically a difficult thing even at the scale of the U.S. to kind of compare directly. And that event fatality that's connected to an autonomous vehicle is significantly at least currently magnified in the amount of attention it gets. So that speaks to public perception. I think the most popular topic about autonomous vehicles in the public is the trolley problem formulation, right? Which has, let's not get into that too much but is misguided in many ways. But it speaks to the fact that people are grappling with this idea of giving control over to a machine. So how do you win the hearts and minds of the people that autonomy is something that could be a part of their lives? I think you let them experience it, right? I think it's right. I think people should be skeptical. I think people should ask questions. I think they should doubt because this is something new and different. They haven't touched it yet. And I think that's perfectly reasonable. And, but at the same time, it's clear there's an opportunity to make the road safer. It's clear that we can improve access to mobility. It's clear that we can reduce the cost of mobility. And that once people try that and understand that it's safe and are able to use in their daily lives, I think it's one of these things that will just be obvious. And I've seen this practically in demonstrations that I've given where I've had people come in and they're very skeptical. Again, in a vehicle, my favorite one is taking somebody out on the freeway and we're on the 101 driving at 65 miles an hour. And after 10 minutes, they kind of turn and ask, is that all it does? And you're like, it's a self driving car. I'm not sure exactly what you thought it would do, right? But it becomes mundane, which is exactly what you want a technology like this to be, right? We don't really, when I turn the light switch on in here, I don't think about the complexity of those electrons being pushed down a wire from wherever it was and being generated. It's like, I just get annoyed if it doesn't work, right? And what I value is the fact that I can do other things in this space. I can see my colleagues. I can read stuff on a paper. I can not be afraid of the dark. And I think that's what we want this technology to be like is it's in the background and people get to have those life experiences and do so safely. So putting this technology in the hands of people speaks to scale of deployment, right? So what do you think the dreaded question about the future because nobody can predict the future, but just maybe speak poetically about when do you think we'll see a large scale deployment of autonomous vehicles, 10,000, those kinds of numbers? We'll see that within 10 years. I'm pretty confident. What's an impressive scale? What moment, so you've done the DARPA challenge where there's one vehicle. At which moment does it become, wow, this is serious scale? So I think the moment it gets serious is when we really do have a driverless vehicle operating on public roads and that we can do that kind of continuously. Without a safety driver. Without a safety driver in the vehicle. I think at that moment, we've kind of crossed the zero to one threshold. And then it is about how do we continue to scale that? How do we build the right business models? How do we build the right customer experience around it so that it is actually a useful product out in the world? And I think that is really, at that point it moves from what is this kind of mixed science engineering project into engineering and commercialization and really starting to deliver on the value that we all see here and actually making that real in the world. What do you think that deployment looks like? Where do we first see the inkling of no safety driver, one or two cars here and there? Is it on the highway? Is it in specific routes in the urban environment? I think it's gonna be urban, suburban type environments. Yeah, with Aurora, when we thought about how to tackle this, it was kind of in vogue to think about trucking as opposed to urban driving. And again, the human intuition around this is that freeways are easier to drive on because everybody's kind of going in the same direction and lanes are a little wider, et cetera. And I think that that intuition is pretty good, except we don't really care about most of the time. We care about all of the time. And when you're driving on a freeway with a truck, say 70 miles an hour, and you've got 70,000 pound load with you, that's just an incredible amount of kinetic energy. And so when that goes wrong, it goes really wrong. And those challenges that you see occur more rarely, so you don't get to learn as quickly. And they're incrementally more difficult than urban driving, but they're not easier than urban driving. And so I think this happens in moderate speed urban environments because if two vehicles crash at 25 miles per hour, it's not good, but probably everybody walks away. And those events where there's the possibility for that occurring happen frequently. So we get to learn more rapidly. We get to do that with lower risk for everyone. And then we can deliver value to people that need to get from one place to another. And once we've got that solved, then the freeway driving part of this just falls out. But we're able to learn more safely, more quickly in the urban environment. So 10 years and then scale 20, 30 year, who knows if a sufficiently compelling experience is created, it could be faster and slower. Do you think there could be breakthroughs and what kind of breakthroughs might there be that completely change that timeline? Again, not only am I asking you to predict the future, I'm asking you to predict breakthroughs that haven't happened yet. So what's the, I think another way to ask that would be if I could wave a magic wand, what part of the system would I make work today to accelerate it as quickly as possible? Don't say infrastructure, please don't say infrastructure. No, it's definitely not infrastructure. It's really that perception forecasting capability. So if tomorrow you could give me a perfect model of what's happened, what is happening and what will happen for the next five seconds around a vehicle on the roadway, that would accelerate things pretty dramatically. Are you, in terms of staying up at night, are you mostly bothered by cars, pedestrians or cyclists? So I worry most about the vulnerable road users about the combination of cyclists and cars, right? Or cyclists and pedestrians because they're not in armor. The cars, they're bigger, they've got protection for the people and so the ultimate risk is lower there. Whereas a pedestrian or a cyclist, they're out on the road and they don't have any protection and so we need to pay extra attention to that. Do you think about a very difficult technical challenge of the fact that pedestrians, if you try to protect pedestrians by being careful and slow, they'll take advantage of that. So the game theoretic dance, does that worry you of how, from a technical perspective, how we solve that? Because as humans, the way we solve that is kind of nudge our way through the pedestrians which doesn't feel, from a technical perspective, as a appropriate algorithm. But do you think about how we solve that problem? Yeah, I think there's two different concepts there. So one is, am I worried that because these vehicles are self driving, people will kind of step in the road and take advantage of them? And I've heard this and I don't really believe it because if I'm driving down the road and somebody steps in front of me, I'm going to stop. Even if I'm annoyed, I'm not gonna just drive through a person stood in the road. And so I think today people can take advantage of this and you do see some people do it. I guess there's an incremental risk because maybe they have lower confidence that I'm gonna see them than they might have for an automated vehicle and so maybe that shifts it a little bit. But I think people don't wanna get hit by cars. And so I think that I'm not that worried about people walking out of the 101 and creating chaos more than they would today. Regarding kind of the nudging through a big stream of pedestrians leaving a concert or something, I think that is further down the technology pipeline. I think that you're right, that's tricky. I don't think it's necessarily, I think the algorithm people use for this is pretty simple. It's kind of just move forward slowly and if somebody's really close then stop. And I think that that probably can be replicated pretty easily and particularly given that you don't do this at 30 miles an hour, you do it at one, that even in those situations the risk is relatively minimal. But it's not something we're thinking about in any serious way. And probably that's less an algorithm problem and more creating a human experience. So the HCI people that create a visual display that you're pleasantly as a pedestrian nudged out of the way, that's an experience problem, not an algorithm problem. Who's the main competitor to Aurora today? And how do you outcompete them in the long run? So we really focus a lot on what we're doing here. I think that, I've said this a few times, that this is a huge difficult problem and it's great that a bunch of companies are tackling it because I think it's so important for society that somebody gets there. So we don't spend a whole lot of time thinking tactically about who's out there and how do we beat that person individually. What are we trying to do to go faster ultimately? Well part of it is the leadership team we have has got pretty tremendous experience. And so we kind of understand the landscape and understand where the cul de sacs are to some degree and we try and avoid those. I think there's a part of it, just this great team we've built. People, this is a technology and a company that people believe in the mission of and so it allows us to attract just awesome people to go work. We've got a culture I think that people appreciate that allows them to focus, allows them to really spend time solving problems. And I think that keeps them energized. And then we've invested hard, invested heavily in the infrastructure and architectures that we think will ultimately accelerate us. So because of the folks we're able to bring in early on, because of the great investors we have, we don't spend all of our time doing demos and kind of leaping from one demo to the next. We've been given the freedom to invest in infrastructure to do machine learning, infrastructure to pull data from our on road testing, infrastructure to use that to accelerate engineering. And I think that early investment and continuing investment in those kind of tools will ultimately allow us to accelerate and do something pretty incredible. Chris, beautifully put. It's a good place to end. Thank you so much for talking today. Thank you very much. Really enjoyed it.

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